The Future of Power Generation in Great Britain

[PushedDover]

It’s a valid question though.
If the ‘overnight charging boom’ is related to the charging of the majority of EV’ someone needs to quantify a) what is the ownership growth rate / pace of the need to have EVs plugged in. Then b) how many miles A day does an average EV do - one would assume a lot less than an average car) and then quantify what this perceived huge growth in overnight demand.
Throw that against the growth in power generation being added to the grid.

I believe it is armchair worriers getting giddy at a scenario that does not have a future

[andymadmak]

PushedDover said:

ah just your thoughts (collectively) then. Gotcha

So 'rocketing' demand is because we all swap to EV's instantly together?

ETA - will the 'rocketing demand' be in line with, behind or ahead of the growth in power generation being added to the grid ?
Pleased to hear.

Edited by PushedDover on Friday 27th May 15:17

Ahh. So you're just going to be sarcastic and rude. Fair enough, if you cannot support your own position.
But in the interests of fairness, let's have another go at it? Perhaps you can show YOUR workings? You know, figures to support the position that the growth in the supply side will fast enough to deal with the growth in demand resulting from EVs? I assume you have accurate figures for the rate of roll out of EVs?
It would of course be helpful if you could avoid saying stuff that, well, nobody actually said - See bold for example.

Please do also take into account:

1. Up coming decommissionings within the current capacity provision
2. Safety margins and further margins for failures, low wind days, lack of sunshine and other adverse factors
3. Any provision for delays in the roll out of the RR SMR program.

Really looking forward to your response and thus gaining an understanding of why you're being such a cocky, rude git on this question.

[PushedDover]

andymadmak said:

PushedDover said:

ah just your thoughts (collectively) then. Gotcha

So 'rocketing' demand is because we all swap to EV's instantly together?

ETA - will the 'rocketing demand' be in line with, behind or ahead of the growth in power generation being added to the grid ?
Pleased to hear.

Edited by PushedDover on Friday 27th May 15:17

Ahh. So you're just going to be sarcastic and rude. Fair enough, if you cannot support your own position.
But in the interests of fairness, let's have another go at it? Perhaps you can show YOUR workings? You know, figures to support the position that the growth in the supply side will fast enough to deal with the growth in demand resulting from EVs? I assume you have accurate figures for the rate of roll out of EVs?
It would of course be helpful if you could avoid saying stuff that, well, nobody actually said - See bold for example.

Please do also take into account:

1. Up coming decommissionings within the current capacity provision
2. Safety margins and further margins for failures, low wind days, lack of sunshine and other adverse factors
3. Any provision for delays in the roll out of the RR SMR program.

Really looking forward to your response and thus gaining an understanding of why you're being such a cocky, rude git on this question.

86 GW of Offshore wind alone incoming.

https://www.renewableuk.com/news/599739/Offshore-w...

Your move.



(and intermittency. well if only we could have a crap load of batteries. Like plugged in. to the grid. )

[wombleh]

Probably also need to account for electrified heating, presumably that’ll increase overnight usage too due to lower temps.

I may not agree with mr cobnapint on many things, but seems quite likely that overnight usage will increase. Not sure if there was some other conclusion drawn that folk are arguing with.

[Cobnapint]

PushedDover said:

ah just your thoughts (collectively) then. Gotcha

So 'rocketing' demand is because we all swap to EV's instantly together?

ETA - will the 'rocketing demand' be in line with, behind or ahead of the growth in power generation being added to the grid ?
Pleased to hear.

Edited by PushedDover on Friday 27th May 15:17

I'm not suggesting one bit that we all swop to EVs instantly together, but it'll be rocketing in terms of increased demand the likes of which the generating sector has never seen before and almost definitely won't be able to keep up with.

As you know (and as some on here seem to forget) in just 12.5 years time, every single new car registered in the UK will be an EV. That's (if new car sales recover to just below where they were 3 years ago) over 2 million brand spanking new cars that'll be reliant on the national grid for their means of propulsion - every 12 months.

Two million.

If just a quarter (it may be more, it may be less, this is just what I personally regard as a reasonable number) of those new cars plug in every night, it'll mean a year on year additional 3.5GW overnight demand on the grid.
Or - the equivalent something of the order of a new Hinckly Point C - every 12 months.

Of course, this annual increase in demand may well start ramping up from 2030 or even earlier, as buyers question the rationale in buying a car that's about to depreciate like a stone (or not, it all depends on the market at the time). Time will tell on that one.

But the crux is this - demand will outstrip the grids ability to supply.

[J4CKO]

What happened with the rise of ICE cars ?

They seemed to managed to gear up for that pretty well, would say with all the wind stuff in and going in we are in a fairly solid position.

Not everyone will charge their car every night, charging at work, some will charge when they get in, some will charge at the supermarket etc.

Things have a way of sorting themselves out, some do anyway.

[PushedDover]

Cobnapint said:

I'm not suggesting one bit that we all swop to EVs instantly together, but it'll be rocketing in terms of increased demand the likes of which the generating sector has never seen before and almost definitely won't be able to keep up with.

As you know (and as some on here seem to forget) in just 12.5 years time, every single new car registered in the UK will be an EV. That's (if new car sales recover to just below where they were 3 years ago) over 2 million brand spanking new cars that'll be reliant on the national grid for their means of propulsion - every 12 months.

Two million.

If just a quarter (it may be more, it may be less, this is just what I personally regard as a reasonable number) of those new cars plug in every night, it'll mean a year on year additional 3.5GW overnight demand on the grid.
Or - the equivalent something of the order of a new Hinckly Point C - every 12 months.

Of course, this annual increase in demand may well start ramping up from 2030 or even earlier, as buyers question the rationale in buying a car that's about to depreciate like a stone (or not, it all depends on the market at the time). Time will tell on that one.

But the crux is this - demand will outstrip the grids ability to supply.

Why would everyone plug their new car in every night?
We don't. My neighbour doesn't.


Do you drive 200 miles every day?

the argument you are making is akin to saying Our Roads. They can't cope.
If everyone was driving every car at the same time on the roads. It wouldnt work.
We can't drive 35,million cars and trucks on the roads at the same time. And guess what, we dont want to either.

So why would we all want to charge an EV (which will be gradually changing in volume) at the same time.


How on earth can you say "almost definitely won't be able to keep up with." ?

In 12.5 years time we have 86GW of Offshore Wind.
Grid requirement today is 30-40GW. How much is this fleet of EV's going to pull down?

[PushedDover]

dickymint said:

It's the way it works on certain threads. Rubbish the message to get a response then drill down on the response ........ rinse and repeat!

alt view: There are those in the industry, power plant management, offshore gas, offshore wind, energy traders and more on this thread offering actual knowledge. But told they are wrong.

[Gary C]

Cobnapint said:

PushedDover said:

Firstly do’ya’thunk that of overnight became more expensive, customers would pivot to using day time and nullifying your claim?

No, because for most people with EVs (which will be most of 'us' in about 20 years time), the only time they'll get to charge up will be at night when they get home from work.
Of course, the number of charging points in company car parks will increase and charging at work will be possible at many places, but you'll pay for it.

I'm not suggesting that overnight will become more expensive than day time. I'm saying that cheap off-peak, overnight, E7 etc will be a thing of the past as night demand rockets.

Forget about EV's, they can be coped with and charged even if normal useage patterns continue as has been demonstrated earlier in this thread.

However, replacing gas heating with electric would/will be interesting.

[Cobnapint]

J4CKO said:

What happened with the rise of ICE cars ?

They seemed to managed to gear up for that pretty well, would say with all the wind stuff in and going in we are in a fairly solid position.

Not everyone will charge their car every night, charging at work, some will charge when they get in, some will charge at the supermarket etc.

Things have a way of sorting themselves out, some do anyway.

The pace of the rise in ICE was easily met with oil fields and refineries that didn't take 10 years to commission and didn't rely on it being windy.

On the subject of offshore wind. The powers that be (and some on here) are giving themselves a rather unjustified bulge in the trouser department over the number of wind farms going up.
But let's all sit down, hold hands and look at what's actually happening here.
They are systematically replacing RELIABLE forms of generation (coal and old nuclear) with inherently UNRELIABLE forms of generation (Teletubby windmills) - just at a time when our dependence on reliable generation is going to go through the roof. They couldn't have timed it any worse.

And here's the kick in the nuts, for every GW of unreliable Teletubby windmill juice you come to rely on, you have to duplicate with a reliable form of generation as a back up.

This of course increases the costs somewhat. Truth is, we should have gone nuclear years ago. It's too late now though.

[Cobnapint]

PushedDover said:

Why would everyone plug their new car in every night?
We don't. My neighbour doesn't.


Do you drive 200 miles every day?

the argument you are making is akin to saying Our Roads. They can't cope.
If everyone was driving every car at the same time on the roads. It wouldnt work.
We can't drive 35,million cars and trucks on the roads at the same time. And guess what, we dont want to either.

So why would we all want to charge an EV (which will be gradually changing in volume) at the same time.


How on earth can you say "almost definitely won't be able to keep up with." ?

In 12.5 years time we have 86GW of Offshore Wind.
Grid requirement today is 30-40GW. How much is this fleet of EV's going to pull down?

Read it again. I said if just a QUARTER of the number of new cars plugged in every night.

For the hard of thinking (and we've been here before too) I'm not suggesting the same quarter will be plugging in either.

Offshore wind...? I give in.

[Cobnapint]

PushedDover said:

alt view: There are those in the industry, power plant management, offshore gas, offshore wind, energy traders and more on this thread offering actual knowledge. But told they are wrong.

Or an alt alt view. All their knowledge, good that it is, was gained and is relevant to a period of time when the PM hadn't just committed the grid to providing more juice than it can provide.
And if you don't believe me, just look at the recent rush to build more nuclear. The penny has dropped and they're stting themselves.

[Jambo85]

Gary C said:

Forget about EV's, they can be coped with and charged even if normal useage patterns continue as has been demonstrated earlier in this thread.

Don’t think anyone was suggesting that they can’t be coped with; rather that they may bring about the end of the E7 tariff.

[Cobnapint]

Jambo85 said:

Gary C said:

Forget about EV's, they can be coped with and charged even if normal useage patterns continue as has been demonstrated earlier in this thread.

Don’t think anyone was suggesting that they can’t be coped with; rather that they may bring about the end of the E7 tariff.

Nearly. I am suggesting both.

[anonymous-user]

Cobnapint said:

The pace of the rise in ICE was easily met with oil fields and refineries that didn't take 10 years to commission and didn't rely on it being windy.

On the subject of offshore wind. The powers that be (and some on here) are giving themselves a rather unjustified bulge in the trouser department over the number of wind farms going up.
But let's all sit down, hold hands and look at what's actually happening here.
They are systematically replacing RELIABLE forms of generation (coal and old nuclear) with inherently UNRELIABLE forms of generation (Teletubby windmills) - just at a time when our dependence on reliable generation is going to go through the roof. They couldn't have timed it any worse.

And here's the kick in the nuts, for every GW of unreliable Teletubby windmill juice you come to rely on, you have to duplicate with a reliable form of generation as a back up.

This of course increases the costs somewhat. Truth is, we should have gone nuclear years ago. It's too late now though.

Some notes from me:

1) It's far quicker to install a solar or wind generation asset than an oil rig and refinery. Have a go at getting planning permission for a refiniery and see where you get too. It was hard way back in 1962, in 2022 it would, imo, be effectively impossible

2)Reliable and Unreliable are not the correct terms. Intermitent is the word you are after, and here, thanks to the way geography and environment energy works, intermitency can be to a large degree systematically contained by distributed redundancy to a high probability of cover, statictically speaking. This is not a free lunch and may (does) require extra distribution network infrastructure, but that is normally contained within the planning commensurate with the scale of the installed facilities

3) Private car useage is, imo, going to fall. More people working from home, and more people finding the costs of running a car climbing and therefore driving less. I'm going to suggest that the golden era of motoring is over, an era fuelled by a glut of a very cheap but high penalty hydrocarbon fuel, and one that is not likely to return. As all car useage falls, the energy we did use to extract, refine, transport and pump our petrol can be used directly in our vehicles instead

4) An EV is agnostic to the source of its energy. Home generation works at small scale, especially when you start to use the BEV's battery to buffer your home as well. Increasingly home owners are fitting solar direct to their own roof, and this really is a "free lunch" for the grid.

5) Many large scale "fuel station" providers are now coming to the BEV charging game with battery and solar / wind backed charging hubs, which can eb installed with a much lower direct impact on the local grid. These aren't of course the complete solution (as the UK isn't sunny enough most of the time) but they will help to take the peak demand off at critical times, for example this containerised, portable, battery backed solar "filling station":




I see no reason this ^^^ sort of thing, that is relatively cheap and robust and extremely easy to both install and remove should the need arise become more common.


I do completely agree that a greater nuclear baseload provision would indeed have been better, but we don't have that (for a large number of complex political and social reasons) so we need to look at the next best option :-)

[anonymous-user]

Cobnapint said:

Read it again. I said if just a QUARTER of the number of new cars plugged in every night.

.

The number of cars "plugged in" is not really relevant. What is important is the energy that those cars actually pull from the grid.

In the UK, the average daily mileage is just around 20 miles per day per car (~7,500 miles per year), a typical BEV does lets say 3 miles per kWh, so that's near enough 7 kWh per car per day, which is the energy provided by a standard 7kW charger (32A 240V) in a single hour.

By comparison, average figures for domestic energy consumption sit at 8kWh of electricity and 33 kWh of gas per day per house in the uk.


So you can see the problem here, and it's not the BEVs right ;-)

[hidetheelephants]

Max_Torque said:

3) Private car useage is, imo, going to fall. More people working from home, and more people finding the costs of running a car climbing and therefore driving less. I'm going to suggest that the golden era of motoring is over, an era fuelled by a glut of a very cheap but high penalty hydrocarbon fuel, and one that is not likely to return. As all car useage falls, the energy we did use to extract, refine, transport and pump our petrol can be used directly in our vehicles instead

A bold statement; I hypothesise the opposite, that the mass adoption of EVs will increase mileage as once owners have eaten the larger capital cost they will want to get as much motoring in as possible(unless the exchequer introduces road pricing) to get best value due to low direct costs.

[smack]

Max_Torque said:

5) Many large scale "fuel station" providers are now coming to the BEV charging game with battery and solar / wind backed charging hubs, which can eb installed with a much lower direct impact on the local grid. These aren't of course the complete solution (as the UK isn't sunny enough most of the time) but they will help to take the peak demand off at critical times, for example this containerised, portable, battery backed solar "filling station":




I see no reason this ^^^ sort of thing, that is relatively cheap and robust and extremely easy to both install and remove should the need arise become more common.

I know that car park, it's in one of the office blocks of Surrey Research Park. I used to park my motorbike under the building behind the black cars, and we had some car spaces in the open bit.

[Jambo85]

hidetheelephants said:

bold statement; I hypothesise the opposite, that the mass adoption of EVs will increase mileage as once owners have eaten the larger capital cost they will want to get as much motoring in as possible(unless the exchequer introduces road pricing) to get best value due to low direct costs.

They’re going to have to introduce some sort of tax eventually to fill the hole left by decreasing petrol and diesel sales.

[eliot]

I’m charging batteries overnight and doing nothing till about 4pm which includes about 6kw of hot tub at lunchtime. So it’s not just ev owners that are suckling on the cheap (for now) overnight leccy - I have no doubt that it will be removed fairly soon.
As for e7 - that’s been crap for years now.
Wholesale costs of ovenight leccy is about 15p - so how can Octo sell it for 7.5 retail ? clearly it’s not going to continue