The Future of Power Generation in Great Britain
Discussion
Cobnapint said:
Jambo85 said:
Gary C said:
Forget about EV's, they can be coped with and charged even if normal useage patterns continue as has been demonstrated earlier in this thread.
Don’t think anyone was suggesting that they can’t be coped with; rather that they may bring about the end of the E7 tariff.Cobnapint said:
The pace of the rise in ICE was easily met with oil fields and refineries that didn't take 10 years to commission and didn't rely on it being windy.
On the subject of offshore wind. The powers that be (and some on here) are giving themselves a rather unjustified bulge in the trouser department over the number of wind farms going up.
But let's all sit down, hold hands and look at what's actually happening here.
They are systematically replacing RELIABLE forms of generation (coal and old nuclear) with inherently UNRELIABLE forms of generation (Teletubby windmills) - just at a time when our dependence on reliable generation is going to go through the roof. They couldn't have timed it any worse.
And here's the kick in the nuts, for every GW of unreliable Teletubby windmill juice you come to rely on, you have to duplicate with a reliable form of generation as a back up.
This of course increases the costs somewhat. Truth is, we should have gone nuclear years ago. It's too late now though.
Credibility scupperedOn the subject of offshore wind. The powers that be (and some on here) are giving themselves a rather unjustified bulge in the trouser department over the number of wind farms going up.
But let's all sit down, hold hands and look at what's actually happening here.
They are systematically replacing RELIABLE forms of generation (coal and old nuclear) with inherently UNRELIABLE forms of generation (Teletubby windmills) - just at a time when our dependence on reliable generation is going to go through the roof. They couldn't have timed it any worse.
And here's the kick in the nuts, for every GW of unreliable Teletubby windmill juice you come to rely on, you have to duplicate with a reliable form of generation as a back up.
This of course increases the costs somewhat. Truth is, we should have gone nuclear years ago. It's too late now though.
hidetheelephants said:
Max_Torque said:
3) Private car useage is, imo, going to fall. More people working from home, and more people finding the costs of running a car climbing and therefore driving less. I'm going to suggest that the golden era of motoring is over, an era fuelled by a glut of a very cheap but high penalty hydrocarbon fuel, and one that is not likely to return. As all car useage falls, the energy we did use to extract, refine, transport and pump our petrol can be used directly in our vehicles instead
A bold statement; I hypothesise the opposite, that the mass adoption of EVs will increase mileage as once owners have eaten the larger capital cost they will want to get as much motoring in as possible(unless the exchequer introduces road pricing) to get best value due to low direct costs.Jambo85 said:
Cobnapint said:
Jambo85 said:
Gary C said:
Forget about EV's, they can be coped with and charged even if normal useage patterns continue as has been demonstrated earlier in this thread.
Don’t think anyone was suggesting that they can’t be coped with; rather that they may bring about the end of the E7 tariff.Cobnapint said something earlier about rocketing what nots
hidetheelephants said:
Max_Torque said:
3) Private car useage is, imo, going to fall. More people working from home, and more people finding the costs of running a car climbing and therefore driving less. I'm going to suggest that the golden era of motoring is over, an era fuelled by a glut of a very cheap but high penalty hydrocarbon fuel, and one that is not likely to return. As all car useage falls, the energy we did use to extract, refine, transport and pump our petrol can be used directly in our vehicles instead
A bold statement; I hypothesise the opposite, that the mass adoption of EVs will increase mileage as once owners have eaten the larger capital cost they will want to get as much motoring in as possible(unless the exchequer introduces road pricing) to get best value due to low direct costs.
For things like Uber, to Amazon, to Just eat, and any number of other online service, we increasingly get something brought to us rather than drive to it.
I see no reason for that trend to change?
(personally i also see the ownership of a private car also falling significantly. Not in the near term, but within a decade imo)
Cobnapint said:
I'm reading the thread, I'm in it.
There's nothing 'common' about some of the abbreviations you are using.
They are if you're discussing military equipment There's nothing 'common' about some of the abbreviations you are using.
What's E7?
Cobnapint said:
The previous responses 'we've all made several times' (my gang is bigger than your gang lol) have mainly come from yourself in the form of ridicule and/or laughing emojis. Because you're the big guy with all the experience right?
Nope, I've never claimed the experience. I've also never made completely unfounded statements, like you have, repeatedly.Cobnapint said:
Well from what I've seen from the meat of your ideas for the future is that the saviour will be life sapping V2G combined with a pallet of knackered batteries in everybody's back yard holding the grid up overnight - but the grid won't actually need holding up overnight because loads won't be increasing and we'll all still be on cheaper tariffs (laughing emojis).
Correct me if I'm wrong.
I've never claimed V2G will reduce overnight demand (it would likely increase it), and I've never been an advocate for home batteries being widely used.Correct me if I'm wrong.
Are you even literate? Have you tried using the quote function or will you just continue to make up crap?
As others have already said, when you consider the actual charging demands overnight of a driver in the UK, then look at the number of drivers that actually have off-street parking, and then consider the growing capacity of wind and nuclear, you're still going to see large variations in day and night demand.
Yes, heating will make a difference. But actually most people decrease their heating demand overnight because the majority of people sleep at a cooler temperature than they consider comfortable as a daytime temperature.
Combined with various smart heating devices, why would you be heating every room in your home overnight? You wouldn't.
Max_Torque said:
As our purchasing becomes ever more "online" and last mile deliveries increase in capability and speed, as our jobs become every more "Online" and more and more people WFH, why would anyone drive more? And as costs of motoring increase, which they surely will (the green "revolution" is an expensive one) people will find other ways to do things. Private car mileage has fallen steadily since it's peak a decade or so ago:
For things like Uber, to Amazon, to Just eat, and any number of other online service, we increasingly get something brought to us rather than drive to it.
I see no reason for that trend to change?
(personally i also see the ownership of a private car also falling significantly. Not in the near term, but within a decade imo)
I'd posit that prior to ZOMGPANDEMIC! the fall is more or less inversely proportional to the increasing number of cars. The new-found enthusiasm for WFH may change that but it's early days.For things like Uber, to Amazon, to Just eat, and any number of other online service, we increasingly get something brought to us rather than drive to it.
I see no reason for that trend to change?
(personally i also see the ownership of a private car also falling significantly. Not in the near term, but within a decade imo)
Evanivitch said:
Cobnapint said:
I'm reading the thread, I'm in it.
There's nothing 'common' about some of the abbreviations you are using.
They are if you're discussing military equipment There's nothing 'common' about some of the abbreviations you are using.
What's E7?
Cobnapint said:
The previous responses 'we've all made several times' (my gang is bigger than your gang lol) have mainly come from yourself in the form of ridicule and/or laughing emojis. Because you're the big guy with all the experience right?
Nope, I've never claimed the experience. I've also never made completely unfounded statements, like you have, repeatedly.Cobnapint said:
Well from what I've seen from the meat of your ideas for the future is that the saviour will be life sapping V2G combined with a pallet of knackered batteries in everybody's back yard holding the grid up overnight - but the grid won't actually need holding up overnight because loads won't be increasing and we'll all still be on cheaper tariffs (laughing emojis).
Correct me if I'm wrong.
I've never claimed V2G will reduce overnight demand (it would likely increase it), and I've never been an advocate for home batteries being widely used.Correct me if I'm wrong.
Are you even literate? Have you tried using the quote function or will you just continue to make up crap?
As others have already said, when you consider the actual charging demands overnight of a driver in the UK, then look at the number of drivers that actually have off-street parking, and then consider the growing capacity of wind and nuclear, you're still going to see large variations in day and night demand.
Yes, heating will make a difference. But actually most people decrease their heating demand overnight because the majority of people sleep at a cooler temperature than they consider comfortable as a daytime temperature.
Combined with various smart heating devices, why would you be heating every room in your home overnight? You wouldn't.
Max_Torque said:
Some notes from me:
1) It's far quicker to install a solar or wind generation asset than an oil rig and refinery. Have a go at getting planning permission for a refiniery and see where you get too. It was hard way back in 1962, in 2022 it would, imo, be effectively impossible
2)Reliable and Unreliable are not the correct terms. Intermitent is the word you are after, and here, thanks to the way geography and environment energy works, intermitency can be to a large degree systematically contained by distributed redundancy to a high probability of cover, statictically speaking. This is not a free lunch and may (does) require extra distribution network infrastructure, but that is normally contained within the planning commensurate with the scale of the installed facilities
3) Private car useage is, imo, going to fall. More people working from home, and more people finding the costs of running a car climbing and therefore driving less. I'm going to suggest that the golden era of motoring is over, an era fuelled by a glut of a very cheap but high penalty hydrocarbon fuel, and one that is not likely to return. As all car useage falls, the energy we did use to extract, refine, transport and pump our petrol can be used directly in our vehicles instead
4) An EV is agnostic to the source of its energy. Home generation works at small scale, especially when you start to use the BEV's battery to buffer your home as well. Increasingly home owners are fitting solar direct to their own roof, and this really is a "free lunch" for the grid.
5) Many large scale "fuel station" providers are now coming to the BEV charging game with battery and solar / wind backed charging hubs, which can eb installed with a much lower direct impact on the local grid. These aren't of course the complete solution (as the UK isn't sunny enough most of the time) but they will help to take the peak demand off at critical times, for example this containerised, portable, battery backed solar "filling station":
I see no reason this ^^^ sort of thing, that is relatively cheap and robust and extremely easy to both install and remove should the need arise become more common.
I do completely agree that a greater nuclear baseload provision would indeed have been better, but we don't have that (for a large number of complex political and social reasons) so we need to look at the next best option :-)
1) I was responding to J4CKO about how we originally coped with the rise in ICEs. 1) It's far quicker to install a solar or wind generation asset than an oil rig and refinery. Have a go at getting planning permission for a refiniery and see where you get too. It was hard way back in 1962, in 2022 it would, imo, be effectively impossible
2)Reliable and Unreliable are not the correct terms. Intermitent is the word you are after, and here, thanks to the way geography and environment energy works, intermitency can be to a large degree systematically contained by distributed redundancy to a high probability of cover, statictically speaking. This is not a free lunch and may (does) require extra distribution network infrastructure, but that is normally contained within the planning commensurate with the scale of the installed facilities
3) Private car useage is, imo, going to fall. More people working from home, and more people finding the costs of running a car climbing and therefore driving less. I'm going to suggest that the golden era of motoring is over, an era fuelled by a glut of a very cheap but high penalty hydrocarbon fuel, and one that is not likely to return. As all car useage falls, the energy we did use to extract, refine, transport and pump our petrol can be used directly in our vehicles instead
4) An EV is agnostic to the source of its energy. Home generation works at small scale, especially when you start to use the BEV's battery to buffer your home as well. Increasingly home owners are fitting solar direct to their own roof, and this really is a "free lunch" for the grid.
5) Many large scale "fuel station" providers are now coming to the BEV charging game with battery and solar / wind backed charging hubs, which can eb installed with a much lower direct impact on the local grid. These aren't of course the complete solution (as the UK isn't sunny enough most of the time) but they will help to take the peak demand off at critical times, for example this containerised, portable, battery backed solar "filling station":
I see no reason this ^^^ sort of thing, that is relatively cheap and robust and extremely easy to both install and remove should the need arise become more common.
I do completely agree that a greater nuclear baseload provision would indeed have been better, but we don't have that (for a large number of complex political and social reasons) so we need to look at the next best option :-)
I wasn't for a moment suggesting it is quicker to put up an oil field and it's refinery than it is to install a wind farm off the east coast.
2) I think for the purposes of this conversation and the intelligence of all those involved it is more than acceptable to use the word 'unreliable' when describing wind power's inherent inability to provide a reliable output to the grid.
Yes, it is intermittent, but it is that intermittency that makes it unreliable as a source.
ie - you can't f
king rely on it.Jambo85 said:
Ah. I was nearly agreeing with you. If you take the total number of vehicles on the road, average mileage and kWh per mile of the typical EV, and assuming an evenly distributed charging load at night, fag packet maths will show that the grid today can cope with a total transition to EVs.
You can't bring averages into it, it's the peak that is the important bit. The grid must be able to provide that (and maintain a margin).The average is irrelevant.
Not quite on topic, but this seems the best place to ask the question.
I just glanced at https://gridwatch.co.uk/ and saw we were importing over what it labels as "IC France" but exporting over "IC2 France". Does anyone have any idea why/how that would arise?
I just glanced at https://gridwatch.co.uk/ and saw we were importing over what it labels as "IC France" but exporting over "IC2 France". Does anyone have any idea why/how that would arise?
xeny said:
Not quite on topic, but this seems the best place to ask the question.
I just glanced at https://gridwatch.co.uk/ and saw we were importing over what it labels as "IC France" but exporting over "IC2 France". Does anyone have any idea why/how that would arise?
It's been common for UK to export to France for months. France has issues with unreliability and safety of their ageing nuclear fleet.I just glanced at https://gridwatch.co.uk/ and saw we were importing over what it labels as "IC France" but exporting over "IC2 France". Does anyone have any idea why/how that would arise?
xeny said:
I'm aware of that. It's the importing on one interconnect while exporting on the other I don't understand.
They're not parallel. IFA connects Kent-Calais while IFA2 is Hampshire-Normandy. It's possible for Kent/Normandy (or vice Verda Calais/Hampshire) to have excess power locally that can't be routed within the country and therefore is exported using the relevant interconnect, even if the overall national picture is a net import.For example we've been importing electricity from Belgium only to export to France because the direct Belgium-France connections are already at capacity.
Gary C said:
Cobnapint said:
PushedDover said:
Firstly do’ya’thunk that of overnight became more expensive, customers would pivot to using day time and nullifying your claim?
No, because for most people with EVs (which will be most of 'us' in about 20 years time), the only time they'll get to charge up will be at night when they get home from work.Of course, the number of charging points in company car parks will increase and charging at work will be possible at many places, but you'll pay for it.
I'm not suggesting that overnight will become more expensive than day time. I'm saying that cheap off-peak, overnight, E7 etc will be a thing of the past as night demand rockets.
However, replacing gas heating with electric would/will be interesting.
Peak heat demand in the UK is about 170GW,
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...
However the caveats are that before you fit a heat pump you need to improve the insulation of the building. The increase in insulation between a UK average category E and a B is around a factor of two ergo we can probably halve the heating requirement. Assuming a COP of about 3.5 that would mean a peak electricity demand of 24GW, with a ramp rate of around 8GW/h.
That is obviously a lot but not unfeasible, I suspect it will also have a degree of diurnal peakiness about it meaning that we can do something with either batteries or storage heaters.
Talksteer said:
Presume when you write electric you mean a heat pump.
Peak heat demand in the UK is about 170GW,
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...
However the caveats are that before you fit a heat pump you need to improve the insulation of the building. The increase in insulation between a UK average category E and a B is around a factor of two ergo we can probably halve the heating requirement. Assuming a COP of about 3.5 that would mean a peak electricity demand of 24GW, with a ramp rate of around 8GW/h.
That is obviously a lot but not unfeasible, I suspect it will also have a degree of diurnal peakiness about it meaning that we can do something with either batteries or storage heaters.
Good points. I mean when EV's take out the night/day load difference, and then we put electric heating into the mix we might be more concerned about capacity but I get your points about improving efficiency.Peak heat demand in the UK is about 170GW,
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...
However the caveats are that before you fit a heat pump you need to improve the insulation of the building. The increase in insulation between a UK average category E and a B is around a factor of two ergo we can probably halve the heating requirement. Assuming a COP of about 3.5 that would mean a peak electricity demand of 24GW, with a ramp rate of around 8GW/h.
That is obviously a lot but not unfeasible, I suspect it will also have a degree of diurnal peakiness about it meaning that we can do something with either batteries or storage heaters.
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