How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 11)
Discussion
braddo said:
Vanden Saab said:
you might want to google IFW-Kiel before you embarrass yourself further…. Oh too late....https://archive.intereconomics.eu/year/2019/3/brex...
One of his key premises is relying on Patrick Minford.
(in the "hard-but-smart: not realistic" section)And quotes from that section:
"Even the hard-but-smart approach cannot convert economic costs into profit."
That is, Brexit in any form is more damaging than no Brexit.
"The automobile industry, with its high exports to the EU, would have to accept significant losses."
"The service sector, on the other hand, would tend to lose out compared to other scenarios"
THE SERVICE SECTOR GIVES THE UK A £100BN+ SURPLUS
Tuna said:
braddo said:
So, rather than preserve the status quo and have a say inside the EU about regulations and encouraging where business is best done (e.g. financial services in London, pharma drug approval in UK - EMA), you think that it is somehow better to leave the EU and then figure a plan out?You're really struggling with this one, aren't you?
The UK is a representative democracy and the majority of MPs know full well that Brexit is a f
king stupid idea for the national interest. That is why it hasn't happened.Tuna said:
So the report you refused to even read is now subject to an ad-hom attack? You're really covering yourself in glory today.
If Elon Musk published a proposal to fly to Mars I'd strap myself in.If he starts quoting Uri Geller's theories, I'm unbuckling and exiting the spacecraft.
/ This is the problem with Brexiteers. Its BS articles on the fringe, that takes up our time to look at and dissect. In the meantime you take 0 flak and move onto the next BS idea.
Tuna said:
braddo said:
The German gent quotes Patrick Minford. That is all anyone should need to know about the writer's credibility when it comes to Brexit. 
So the report you refused to even read is now subject to an ad-hom attack? You're really covering yourself in glory today.But given the willful blindness on this thread, I'll spell one thing out as an example. Be very worried if you give a s
t about UK car manufacturing..jpg)
Tuna said:
Jazzer77 said:
Braddo makes a very valid point.
Where did you get that link????????
Springer are a journal publishing organisation. They conveniently published a translation of the original report by Gabriel Felbermayr of Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in Germany. Where did you get that link????????
The German Economics Institute report is interesting because it doesn't have the pro-Brexit bias of the UK political groups, and is a reasonably well researched and referenced technical paper on the economic consequences of trade policies after Brexit. In other words, it's not (in braddo's words) a 'tinpot blog'.
Obviously, the original report is in German, so a link to the translation seems more appropriate than linking either to the original report, or the news articles that covered it.
braddo said:
Tuna said:
braddo said:
So, rather than preserve the status quo and have a say inside the EU about regulations and encouraging where business is best done (e.g. financial services in London, pharma drug approval in UK - EMA), you think that it is somehow better to leave the EU and then figure a plan out?You're really struggling with this one, aren't you?
The UK is a representative democracy and the majority of MPs know full well that Brexit is a f
king stupid idea for the national interest. That is why it hasn't happened.Perhaps if May and Robbins had actually tried to Brexit then we wouldn't be in this position??
The laughable bit is that what could possibly have been a sensibly negotiated Brexit has in all likelihood turned into a no deal Brexit precisely because of the machinations and feckwittery of Remainers who hoped to achieve a BRINO outcome.
braddo said:
What absolute rubbish - this notion that democracy is dead and that we can't change our minds until the 2016 result is somehow enacted even though there is no clear way to do it.
You can't stop digging, can you? I never said anything about changing our minds. I said very specifically that the choices we currently have are not the same as the 'status quo' that we had three years ago. There is no option to "make it like it was before the Referendum". You could have as many votes on it as you like and you cannot undo the political and economic consequences of the last three years.Changing our minds, given that the circumstances have changed, is rather important. You're the one who appears to believe that the 'status quo' is still an option.
Tuna said:
You can't stop digging, can you? I never said anything about changing our minds. I said very specifically that the choices we currently have are not the same as the 'status quo' that we had three years ago. There is no option to "make it like it was before the Referendum". You could have as many votes on it as you like and you cannot undo the political and economic consequences of the last three years.
Changing our minds, given that the circumstances have changed, is rather important. You're the one who appears to believe that the 'status quo' is still an option.
Revoke Article 50.Changing our minds, given that the circumstances have changed, is rather important. You're the one who appears to believe that the 'status quo' is still an option.
It's as simple as that.
Jazzer77 said:
I asked where did you get the link?
I read the original commentary in the mainstream news a few months ago, looked up the report and then googled to find a translation rather than relying on articles on news sites that are stuck behind pay walls and only quote small sections. Wouldn't want to be accused of placing any sort of spin on it. 
braddo said:
Tuna said:
braddo said:
The German gent quotes Patrick Minford. That is all anyone should need to know about the writer's credibility when it comes to Brexit.
So the report you refused to even read is now subject to an ad-hom attack? You're really covering yourself in glory today.But given the willful blindness on this thread, I'll spell one thing out as an example. Be very worried if you give a s
t about UK car manufacturing.Tuna said:
Jazzer77 said:
I asked where did you get the link?
I read the original commentary in the mainstream news a few months ago, looked up the report and then googled to find a translation rather than relying on articles on news sites that are stuck behind pay walls and only quote small sections. Wouldn't want to be accused of placing any sort of spin on it. Can you provide a link to this "original commentary in the mainstream news". Should be in your history just before the source.
andymadmak said:
It's not that people don't see your point about 'democracy' - it's that democracy (in the view of others) is not best served by having the outcome of a democratic vote deliberately sabotaged for 3 years so that demands for a new vote (presumably to get it right this time?) can have time to gain traction.
Perhaps if May and Robbins had actually tried to Brexit then we wouldn't be in this position??
The laughable bit is that what could possibly have been a sensibly negotiated Brexit has in all likelihood turned into a no deal Brexit precisely because of the machinations and feckwittery of Remainers who hoped to achieve a BRINO outcome.
cPerhaps if May and Robbins had actually tried to Brexit then we wouldn't be in this position??
The laughable bit is that what could possibly have been a sensibly negotiated Brexit has in all likelihood turned into a no deal Brexit precisely because of the machinations and feckwittery of Remainers who hoped to achieve a BRINO outcome.
There is no sabotage.
Even deads
t Davis admitted it would be the most compliated negotiation in the history of the world. Literally! But guess what, it can be distilled down to a simple fact - the UK did not hold all the cards (a Brexit lie). Trade negotiations tend to hinge on size and the EU is far bigger than the UK, so it has the leverage. Likewise the US and China. The UK will get royally f
ked in trade negotiations with these countries but apparently our choice to be bent over equates to more control and sovereignty, so we're OK with it.crankedup said:
Elysium said:
Robertj21a said:
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha, absolutely brilliant, So says the person who, for at least the 806th time, wants a second referendum before we've even implemented the first. Thanks for the laugh.
Yes - because I care about fairness. Whereas you are prepared to do something against the will of the majority in order to get something you want. crankedup said:
Reading some of the posts from some remainers in here makes me wonder how these people are going to continue to live.The doom and gloom, depressing rhetoric which comes straight out of the 2016 post bag is desperate stuff to no purpose or result. For the U.K. the E.U. is over, we are almost out just a matter of weeks and our new PM will have fulfilled his promises.
Is this why remainers are in mourning and expressing their heartfelt sorrow?
What doom and gloom? Is this why remainers are in mourning and expressing their heartfelt sorrow?
We should only leave with no-deal if the majority support that action. We don’t know if that is the case.
braddo said:
Be very worried if you give a st about UK car manufacturing.
Yes, because being in the EU really protected our interests didn't it when it came to the EU TA with Japan - which removed the necessity for Japan to manufacture cars in the UK. Yep, well protected there. Glad we are part of this mighty EU umbrella....oh, hang on... t about UK car manufacturing.Vanden Saab said:
braddo said:
Tuna said:
braddo said:
The German gent quotes Patrick Minford. That is all anyone should need to know about the writer's credibility when it comes to Brexit.
So the report you refused to even read is now subject to an ad-hom attack? You're really covering yourself in glory today.But given the willful blindness on this thread, I'll spell one thing out as an example. Be very worried if you give a s
t about UK car manufacturing.braddo said:
There is no sabotage.
Even deadst Davis admitted it would be the most compliated negotiation in the history of the world. Literally!
But guess what, it can be distilled down to a simple fact - the UK did not hold all the cards (a Brexit lie). Trade negotiations tend to hinge on size and the EU is far bigger than the UK, so it has the leverage. Likewise the US and China. The UK will get royally fked in trade negotiations with these countries but apparently our choice to be bent over equates to more control and sovereignty, so we're OK with it.
Ok, well it's clear that you're a bit over emotional tonight. Best if we leave further discussions to tomorrow, when hopefully you will have calmed down a bit. No sabotage? Even deads
t Davis admitted it would be the most compliated negotiation in the history of the world. Literally! But guess what, it can be distilled down to a simple fact - the UK did not hold all the cards (a Brexit lie). Trade negotiations tend to hinge on size and the EU is far bigger than the UK, so it has the leverage. Likewise the US and China. The UK will get royally f
ked in trade negotiations with these countries but apparently our choice to be bent over equates to more control and sovereignty, so we're OK with it.braddo said:
Revoke Article 50.
It's as simple as that.
No, no it isn't.It's as simple as that.
1. Our rebate has been removed.
2. Voting rights have been changed within the EU and are likely to continue to change
3. We've exposed the EU's heavy reliance on London as a financial centre, so they're certainly going to move to reduce that 'risk'
4. We have lost 25% of all R&D grants to universities and are not going to be getting them back for at least a financial cycle.
5. 17.4 million people are going to be 'quite upset', and Farage is going to have a field day.
6. It will collapse the Conservative government
7. No-one will take the UK seriously in international negotiations
8. Our vetoes within the EU mean nothing, as we've demonstrated we're incapable of walking away from the table
9. We've given control over our automotive sector to the EU, that has done a deal with Japan to encourage manufacturing to leave the continent
10. The pound has shifted significantly, which has changed our balance of payments with other EU nations.
So, no it's not as simple as that. The world has changed, though apparently not in your head.
braddo said:
Otis Criblecoblis said:
braddo said:
It has a £100bn+ surplus with the EU. Can you enunciate how Brexit will protect that trade surplus?
Jazzer77 said:
Very vague for a source that you took the time to lookup a research article in German.
Can you provide a link to this "original commentary in the mainstream news". Should be in your history just before the source.
Can you provide a link to this "original commentary in the mainstream news". Should be in your history just before the source.
What do you suspect? I suspect your suspicions maybe non-suspect.
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