Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 4)

[Mortarboard]

Deesee said:

Mortarboard said:

Deesee said:

But yet with inflation France Germany and the Netherlands are not exporting to record levels?

Why?

Who cares? It doesn't matter.

"Why is UK trade not improving at the same levels as it G7 peers?" Is the pertinent question.

M.

Ah, your measuring volumes not value..

Of course
It's independent of both inflation and currency effects.

M.

ETA- it's usually calculated as a portion of gdp, iirc.

Edited by Mortarboard on Thursday 29th February 20:16

[Deesee]

Blue62 said:

Just Google it, an hour ago you thought it was all my own work, there’s lots of opinion and commentary, as a remainer you’ll love it.

Hmm, I did not think or even suggest it was your report.

The report has not been (fully) released to the public.

& I’m not a remainer thank you. Keep your labels to your self.

[Deesee]

Mortarboard said:

Of course
It's independent of both inflation and currency effects.

M.

ETA- it's usually calculated as a portion of gdp, iirc.

Edited by Mortarboard on Thursday 29th February 20:16

Volumes won’t fund the EC budget M… cold hard income does.. The major exporting economies of the EU have the same inflationary issues as the UK (of which we are outperforming), there’s only some much GDP can pick up in Croatia, Malta..to balance the books.

[Vanden Saab]

Mortarboard said:

Deesee said:

Mortarboard said:

Deesee said:

But yet with inflation France Germany and the Netherlands are not exporting to record levels?

Why?

Who cares? It doesn't matter.

"Why is UK trade not improving at the same levels as it G7 peers?" Is the pertinent question.

M.

Ah, your measuring volumes not value..

Of course
It's independent of both inflation and currency effects.

M.

ETA- it's usually calculated as a portion of gdp, iirc.

Edited by Mortarboard on Thursday 29th February 20:16

Much like FDI quality is better than quantity. M. thinks exporting 10 £1 widgets is better than exporting 1 £20 wodget for some reason.

[Mortarboard]

Deesee said:

Volumes won’t fund the EC budget M… cold hard income does.. The major exporting economies of the EU have the same inflationary issues as the UK (of which we are outperforming), there’s only some much GDP can pick up in Croatia, Malta..to balance the books.

Irrelevant when looking at brexit impact.

Trade intensity negates all those "excuses"

M.

[Mortarboard]

Vanden Saab said:

Much like FDI quality is better than quantity. M. thinks exporting 10 £1 widgets is better than exporting 1 £20 wodget for some reason.

Again, irrelevant when looking at brexit impact.

Your assumption is wrong. X% of gdp is x% of gdp, regardless of volume, number or base value. It's all normalized.

M.

[Deesee]

Mortarboard said:

Deesee said:

Volumes won’t fund the EC budget M… cold hard income does.. The major exporting economies of the EU have the same inflationary issues as the UK (of which we are outperforming), there’s only some much GDP can pick up in Croatia, Malta..to balance the books.

Irrelevant when looking at brexit impact.

Trade intensity negates all those "excuses"

M.

Not at all M, Uk has record revenues and is now delivering surpluses.

Record surpluses, and projected borrowing for 2023 is 15% lower than forecast…is there a single EU member that can state the same, let alone a G7 eu member?

[Mortarboard]

Deesee said:

Not at all M, Uk has record revenues and is now delivering surpluses.

Record surpluses, and projected borrowing for 2023 is 15% lower than forecast…is there a single EU member that can state the same, let alone a G7 eu member?

And?
Brexit affects trade (primarily)

Trade intensity has tanked compared to the G7.

You cam ignore that all you like, but the biggest effect, by far, that brexit has had is that trade friction has increased.

Compared to G7 peers, that's costing the UK more than 4% of gdp every year

That's measured, actual.numbers.

M.

[Vanden Saab]

Mortarboard said:

Vanden Saab said:

Much like FDI quality is better than quantity. M. thinks exporting 10 £1 widgets is better than exporting 1 £20 wodget for some reason.

Again, irrelevant when looking at brexit impact.

Your assumption is wrong. X% of gdp is x% of gdp, regardless of volume, number or base value. It's all normalized.

M.

If your gdp is the same or rising it means you are selling more to your home market. Exporting less and importing less. When did becoming more self-sufficient become a bad thing?

[Deesee]

Mortarboard said:

And?
Brexit affects trade (primarily)

Trade intensity has tanked compared to the G7.

You cam ignore that all you like, but the biggest effect, by far, that brexit has had is that trade friction has increased.

Compared to G7 peers, that's costing the UK more than 4% of gdp every year

That's measured, actual.numbers.

M.

So we trade less volume with the EU, make bigger margins, create new markets around the globe. Generate less (no) income for the EU by doing so. At the same time trading more with the EU in value creating more income for UK.

The EU 4 (Ireland/Germany/Netherlands/France) whom we did the majority of trade with within the EU are even more hamstrung than us as we have the same bilateral deal, these countries are now in recession (whom make up 40/45% of the EU GDP & now have issues trading with a local member ie the UK). Have the same issues trading with us as we do with them.

We’ve made up the ground, surpassed it, within a global pandemic, frankly governed by infighting within our own political parties, but in the blink of an eye have achieved it, even fronted the Brexit Divorce Bill of an additional 40b to pay EU liabilities to leave.

Perhaps the EU is in decline hence the trade values reducing.

[Mortarboard]

Vanden Saab said:

If your gdp is the same or rising it means you are selling more to your home market.

No, that's not true. While technically possible, it's almost pysically impossible to raise gdp without selling beyond your borders.

M.

[Mortarboard]

Deesee said:

.We’ve made up the ground, surpassed it, within a global pandemic, frankly governed by infighting within our own political parties, but in the blink of an eye have achieved it, even fronted the Brexit Divorce Bill of an additional 40b to pay EU liabilities to leave.

This is completely untrue.

The uk is demonstrably worse off than if it had not brexited. It's lost ground because of brexit.

M.

[Deesee]

Mortarboard said:

Deesee said:

.We’ve made up the ground, surpassed it, within a global pandemic, frankly governed by infighting within our own political parties, but in the blink of an eye have achieved it, even fronted the Brexit Divorce Bill of an additional 40b to pay EU liabilities to leave.

This is completely untrue.

The uk is demonstrably worse off than if it had not brexited. It's lost ground because of brexit.

M.

Your parallel universe does not exist.. is it unacceptable to accept that the EUs biggest economies needed the UK? More than we need them?

There’s no ground lost, what did France/Germany/Italy forecasts look like in 2015/2019? How have they performed? UK figures are actual regardless of Brexit/pandemic/political suicide.

Real numbers, real trade.

[Mortarboard]

Deesee said:

Your parallel universe does not exist.. is it unacceptable to accept that the EUs biggest economies needed the UK? More than we need them?

Oh my days

Deesee said:

There’s no ground lost, what did France/Germany/Italy forecasts look like in 2015/2019? How have they performed? UK figures are actual regardless of Brexit/pandemic/political suicide.

Real numbers, real trade.

It's growth vs growth. There are no forecasts involved.

These are real numbers.

M.

[Deesee]

Mortarboard said:

It's growth vs growth. There are no forecasts involved.

These are real numbers.

M.

And these numbers are…..

[Mortarboard]

Deesee said:

And these numbers are…..

For your erroneous "We've recovered":
https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/th...

Plenty of other sources. Knock yourself out.

For trade intensity figures, that's in the ONS remit. You'll havevto do your own digging in that mess.
Here's a good starring point:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/in...

M.

[Blue62]

Deesee said:

Hmm, I did not think or even suggest it was your report.

The report has not been (fully) released to the public.

& I’m not a remainer thank you. Keep your labels to your self.

You weren’t even aware of the Goldman study, which is why on the previous page you accused me of judging the U.K. by the EuroZone, scroll back if you need to remind yourself. The remainer remark was just a bit of sarcasm, don’t be swayed too much!!

[Deesee]

Blue62 said:

You weren’t even aware of the Goldman study, which is why on the previous page you accused me of judging the U.K. by the EuroZone, scroll back if you need to remind yourself. The remainer remark was just a bit of sarcasm, don’t be swayed too much!!

I’d had seen snippets/snapshots of the Goldman Study by known remainer propaganda accounts and known brexiter cheerleaders on twitter and placed on hosted websites, both of whom I’d not trust tbh (tufton bats for both sides imo), rather see the actual report/figures, which as at yet it’s not in the public domain, if I interpret that wrong then that’s my issue.

If you gain a link please place it here, I’d rather not call in a favour to obtain it if it is not public knowledge.

Thank you.

As before I'm not pro remain/pro Brexit (I’m pro UK), personally my business assumed remain as per the polls and professional advise we received, we simulated a WTO Brexit as a worse case… almost eh!

[Deesee]

Mortarboard said:

For your erroneous "We've recovered":
https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/th...

Plenty of other sources. Knock yourself out.

For trade intensity figures, that's in the ONS remit. You'll havevto do your own digging in that mess.
Here's a good starring point:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/in...

M.

That’s two yrs old…

Growth yet barriers.. ‘growing at a decent clip’ grrr Brexit..

|https://thumbsnap.com/15kBEKmr[/url]

[Blue62]

Deesee said:

I’d had seen snippets/snapshots of the Goldman Study by known remainer propaganda accounts and known brexiter cheerleaders on twitter and placed on hosted websites, both of whom I’d not trust tbh (tufton bats for both sides imo), rather see the actual report/figures, which as at yet it’s not in the public domain, if I interpret that wrong then that’s my issue.

If you gain a link please place it here, I’d rather not call in a favour to obtain it if it is not public knowledge.

Thank you.

As before I'm not pro remain/pro Brexit (I’m pro UK), personally my business assumed remain as per the polls and professional advise we received, we simulated a WTO Brexit as a worse case… almost eh!

You clearly accused me of making the judgement when I was citing the Goldman study, I’ll take your silence on the point as an admission that you had a comprehension failure. You might just understand by now why it can’t be linked but I won’t count my chickens, you previously suggested that if I couldn’t link the study (it’s not a report) then it’s not in my possession, I’ll leave that with you.

It’s a study, an interesting one at that and underpins why currently the U.K. has a challenge attracting investment.