Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 4)
Discussion
Blue62 said:
Deesee said:
I’d had seen snippets/snapshots of the Goldman Study by known remainer propaganda accounts and known brexiter cheerleaders on twitter and placed on hosted websites, both of whom I’d not trust tbh (tufton bats for both sides imo), rather see the actual report/figures, which as at yet it’s not in the public domain, if I interpret that wrong then that’s my issue.
If you gain a link please place it here, I’d rather not call in a favour to obtain it
if it is not public knowledge.
Thank you.
As before I'm not pro remain/pro Brexit (I’m pro UK), personally my business assumed remain as per the polls and professional advise we received, we simulated a WTO Brexit as a worse case… almost eh!
You clearly accused me of making the judgement when I was citing the Goldman study, I’ll take your silence on the point as an admission that you had a comprehension failure. You might just understand by now why it can’t be linked but I won’t count my chickens, you previously suggested that if I couldn’t link the study (it’s not a report) then it’s not in my possession, I’ll leave that with you. If you gain a link please place it here, I’d rather not call in a favour to obtain it
if it is not public knowledge.Thank you.
As before I'm not pro remain/pro Brexit (I’m pro UK), personally my business assumed remain as per the polls and professional advise we received, we simulated a WTO Brexit as a worse case… almost eh!
It’s a study, an interesting one at that and underpins why currently the U.K. has a challenge attracting investment.
You can count as many chickens as you like.
It’s from the publication Brexit a trade paradox written by the EU. Not Goldman.
& I’ve scrolled back, it’s not a reply to me. & BTW... KIV EU is not EuroZone.
Incase you want me to reply to something we were not discussing, that will be the next post..
Your eu/uk investment comment, as to why the uk is a ‘challenge’ for investment, I’ll come back to that in a n other post..possibly later..
Blue62 said:
The ‘facts’ I was referring to are the detailed data on which the study is based, I only posted up some limited detail of the doppelgänger study, which in itself is obviously a comparative study.
The ‘facts’ on which the Goldman study is based are that U.K. GDP per capita has barely risen above pre COVID levels and now stands at 4% above the mid 2016 level. This compares with 8% across the Euro area and 15% for the US. It added that the U.K. has seen higher inflation over this period, with prices up 31% compared with 27% in the US and 24% in the Euro area. I think we can safely say that the U.K. is underperforming and reasonably state that Brexit is the reason. We haven’t made it work is my subjective view and given the dearth of talent in our political class I’m as confident with that statement now as I was in 2016, which was part of my reason for voting remain.
Core CPIThe ‘facts’ on which the Goldman study is based are that U.K. GDP per capita has barely risen above pre COVID levels and now stands at 4% above the mid 2016 level. This compares with 8% across the Euro area and 15% for the US. It added that the U.K. has seen higher inflation over this period, with prices up 31% compared with 27% in the US and 24% in the Euro area. I think we can safely say that the U.K. is underperforming and reasonably state that Brexit is the reason. We haven’t made it work is my subjective view and given the dearth of talent in our political class I’m as confident with that statement now as I was in 2016, which was part of my reason for voting remain.
Unemployment
@blue62 I think this was the post you think I was referring too..
See core CPI and Unemployment both well under G7 averages and around and about European better than most…
Link provided by M of this parish.. from this thread.
Deesee said:
That’s two yrs old…
Growth yet barriers.. ‘growing at a decent clip’ grrr Brexit..
So asking me to believe that in 18 months (seeing as the UK is in technical recession), that graph completely and absolutely reversed?Growth yet barriers.. ‘growing at a decent clip’ grrr Brexit..
And nary a scrap of data to support your flight of fancy?
Are you the guy who advised Liz Truss on economics?
M.
Mortarboard said:
Deesee said:
That’s two yrs old…
Growth yet barriers.. ‘growing at a decent clip’ grrr Brexit..
So asking me to believe that in 18 months (seeing as the UK is in technical recession), that graph completely and absolutely reversed?Growth yet barriers.. ‘growing at a decent clip’ grrr Brexit..
And nary a scrap of data to support your flight of fancy?
Are you the guy who advised Liz Truss on economics?
M.
I’m not going to go down the ‘technical’ recession, (as per other threads, yep I’m honest), probably need a fully blown one to kill off inflation (that’s for another thread).
Truss, errr wrong person, wrong time, slightly right idea…delivered like a dog poo sandwich, as above I’d have stopped the inflation issue by a recession (but I’m not a BoE member ). Hard times make good times..sadly, went through it early in life.
I’ve looked after several PEPs in the past, not current.. snake pit at the moment imo.
Anyway back to my graph that I’ve drawn on my iPhone (joke
) it’s a slight contraction for Q4 2023.. Q1 2024 is already outrageous… trust me.. 
Deesee said:
We should have a beer/whiskey, I’m nodding in appreciation and having a belly laugh at present…. I love to disagree with my risk managers, and flip that, the sales guys a massive grilling too.. I love discussion it’s brilliant. Might even do an unannounced visit to my office in the morning in town!
Disagreement is good- "question everything" isn't a bad way to approach stuff But there's plenty who'll just blindly believe any old s
te. Amd this is car forum, I don't think anyone from the OBR or ONS is on pistonheads (if they are, they probably stay well away from brexit threads )"Why?" Is a full, a often percent question.
Especially with a beer or tot!
M.
Deesee said:
@blue62
Here’s the doppelgänger but you have the Goldman report..
Overlay that doppelgänger with what we did worldwide…
Oh dear, the 'study' as published was published by GS, every commentary on the study whether mainstream or specialist, refers to it as the Goldman Sachs study. I'm in no doubt that you'll continue to argue that point among all the others, but I hope that you live in a different time zone because the obvious effort and trouble you have taken at that time of night is rather disturbing. There are moments on PH when it's clear that the right thing to do is step back and get a little perspective, I've been there myself and witnessed others, so I hope you take my comment in good faith, as it is intended.Here’s the doppelgänger
but you have the Goldman report..Overlay that doppelgänger with what we did worldwide…
Mortarboard said:
Deesee said:
Not at all M, Uk has record revenues and is now delivering surpluses.
Record surpluses, and projected borrowing for 2023 is 15% lower than forecast…is there a single EU member that can state the same, let alone a G7 eu member?
And?Record surpluses, and projected borrowing for 2023 is 15% lower than forecast…is there a single EU member that can state the same, let alone a G7 eu member?
Brexit affects trade (primarily)
Trade intensity has tanked compared to the G7.
You cam ignore that all you like, but the biggest effect, by far, that brexit has had is that trade friction has increased.
Compared to G7 peers, that's costing the UK more than 4% of gdp every year
That's measured, actual.numbers.
M.
CivicDuties said:
Deesee said:
As before I'm not pro remain/pro Brexit (I’m pro UK)
So did you abstain in the referendum, or would you rather not say which way you voted? No problem if the latter, your prerogative.
I did take the time to try to best understand the pros and cons of both sides, and at the time felt it was 50/50, & felt that what ever side got the decision there would be voters remorse on either side, as both sides would feel they had lost the opportunity as such.
Anyway its an interesting thread and I enjoy the discussion, and if wrong have no issue with that.
Vanden Saab said:
Blue62 said:
The ‘facts’ I was referring to are the detailed data on which the study is based, I only posted up some limited detail of the doppelgänger study, which in itself is obviously a comparative study.
The ‘facts’ on which the Goldman study is based are that U.K. GDP per capita has barely risen above pre COVID levels and now stands at 4% above the mid 2016 level. This compares with 8% across the Euro area and 15% for the US. It added that the U.K. has seen higher inflation over this period, with prices up 31% compared with 27% in the US and 24% in the Euro area. I think we can safely say that the U.K. is underperforming and reasonably state that Brexit is the reason. We haven’t made it work is my subjective view and given the dearth of talent in our political class I’m as confident with that statement now as I was in 2016, which was part of my reason for voting remain.
How does it compare to Germany or France? Why would you compare the UK to the whole EU or the USA. The ‘facts’ on which the Goldman study is based are that U.K. GDP per capita has barely risen above pre COVID levels and now stands at 4% above the mid 2016 level. This compares with 8% across the Euro area and 15% for the US. It added that the U.K. has seen higher inflation over this period, with prices up 31% compared with 27% in the US and 24% in the Euro area. I think we can safely say that the U.K. is underperforming and reasonably state that Brexit is the reason. We haven’t made it work is my subjective view and given the dearth of talent in our political class I’m as confident with that statement now as I was in 2016, which was part of my reason for voting remain.
It includes all the G7 countries for all years from 2000 to 2023, but you can zoom in and take countries out to your heart's content. The summary is...
2016 GDP per capita
France - $45,376
Germany - $52,175
UK - $45,450
2023 GDP per capita
France - $48,004
Germany - $53,945
UK - $46,428
Percentage change in GDP per capita 2016 to 2023
France - +5.79%
Germany - +3.39%
UK - 2.15%
Make of that what you will.
Kermit power said:
You can see how GDP per capita in PPP $ compares to France & Germany on this Statista page.
It includes all the G7 countries for all years from 2000 to 2023, but you can zoom in and take countries out to your heart's content. The summary is...
2016 GDP per capita
France - $45,376
Germany - $52,175
UK - $45,450
2023 GDP per capita
France - $48,004
Germany - $53,945
UK - $46,428
Percentage change in GDP per capita 2016 to 2023
France - +5.79%
Germany - +3.39%
UK - 2.15%
Make of that what you will.
The population in Germany is in decline, France population has grown at half the rate of the UK, UK has been growing its population at an enormous rate in the last few years. Those impact GDP per capita.It includes all the G7 countries for all years from 2000 to 2023, but you can zoom in and take countries out to your heart's content. The summary is...
2016 GDP per capita
France - $45,376
Germany - $52,175
UK - $45,450
2023 GDP per capita
France - $48,004
Germany - $53,945
UK - $46,428
Percentage change in GDP per capita 2016 to 2023
France - +5.79%
Germany - +3.39%
UK - 2.15%
Make of that what you will.
If you have zero GDP growth but an increasing population, GDP per capita falls.
To benefit from an increase in population, that increase has to be generating more wealth than the costs associated with having more people to service. It's far from a simple equation to use a stat like GDP per capita to understand what is happening and why.
London424 said:
Just so I’m clear. You think that if the U.K. were still in the EU that GDP would be 4% higher every year? As in it was 0.1% last year but would have been 4.1%?
That's growth in a single year.Today, the uk's gdp would be at least 4% higher if it had not brexited. It could be as much as 7% (government figures)
And it's not "I think". That's measured.
M.
mike9009 said:
blueg33 said:
Killboy said:
Have you guys heard Germany is in a recession?
Therefore Brexit is a perfect mix of sunlit uplands and sovrinty, plus so many benefits Brexiters cant list themM.
Mortarboard said:
London424 said:
Just so I’m clear. You think that if the U.K. were still in the EU that GDP would be 4% higher every year? As in it was 0.1% last year but would have been 4.1%?
That's growth in a single year.Today, the uk's gdp would be at least 4% higher if it had not brexited. It could be as much as 7% (government figures)
And it's not "I think". That's measured.
M.
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