Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 4)
Discussion
Mortarboard said:
Vanden Saab said:
What is it measured against?
FFS.Take your trolling elsewhere. You've been around long enough that you'll have been given this info and commented on it plenty of times
M.
Mortarboard said:
Vanden Saab said:
Was it forecasts or the alternative universe you seem to know where we did not Brexit?
Neither, as has been pointed out to you multiple times.M.
OBR said:
This Forecast in-depth page has been updated with information available at the time of the March 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook.
This page sets out our assumptions related to EU exit that underpin our latest March 2023 forecast Specifically, our latest economy forecast assumes that:
The post-Brexit trading relationship between the UK and EU, as set out in the ‘Trade and Cooperation Agreement’ (TCA) that came into effect on 1 January 2021, will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU.
This largely reflects our view that the increase in non-tariff barriers on UK-EU trade acts as an additional impediment to the exploitation of comparative advantage. In order to generate this figure, we looked at a range of external estimates of the effect of leaving the EU under the terms of a ‘typical’ free trade agreement (FTA) (see Box 2.1 of our March 2020 EFO for more information). Our assessment is that the TCA is broadly similar to the ‘typical’ FTAs assumed in those studies and reflected in our forecasts since March 2020. We estimate that around two-fifths of the 4 per cent impact had already occurred by the time the TCA came into force, as a result of uncertainty weighing on investment and capital deepening (see Box 2.2 of our March 2021 EFO for more information).
Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU. The size of this adjustment is calibrated to match the average estimate of a number of external studies that considered the impact of leaving the EU on the volume of UK-EU trade (see our November 2016 EFO for more information). Impacts on export and import growth are similar, therefore downward revisions to gross trade flows are broadly neutral in their effect on the current account over the medium term. Box 2.5 of our October 2021 EFO and Box 2.6 of our March 2022 EFO provide initial assessments of this assumption.
My bold...This page sets out our assumptions related to EU exit that underpin our latest March 2023 forecast Specifically, our latest economy forecast assumes that:
The post-Brexit trading relationship between the UK and EU, as set out in the ‘Trade and Cooperation Agreement’ (TCA) that came into effect on 1 January 2021, will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU.
This largely reflects our view that the increase in non-tariff barriers on UK-EU trade acts as an additional impediment to the exploitation of comparative advantage. In order to generate this figure, we looked at a range of external estimates of the effect of leaving the EU under the terms of a ‘typical’ free trade agreement (FTA) (see Box 2.1 of our March 2020 EFO for more information). Our assessment is that the TCA is broadly similar to the ‘typical’ FTAs assumed in those studies and reflected in our forecasts since March 2020. We estimate that around two-fifths of the 4 per cent impact had already occurred by the time the TCA came into force, as a result of uncertainty weighing on investment and capital deepening (see Box 2.2 of our March 2021 EFO for more information).
Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU. The size of this adjustment is calibrated to match the average estimate of a number of external studies that considered the impact of leaving the EU on the volume of UK-EU trade (see our November 2016 EFO for more information). Impacts on export and import growth are similar, therefore downward revisions to gross trade flows are broadly neutral in their effect on the current account over the medium term. Box 2.5 of our October 2021 EFO and Box 2.6 of our March 2022 EFO provide initial assessments of this assumption.
But yeah, measured or real or something...
Mortarboard said:
London424 said:
Just so I’m clear. You think that if the U.K. were still in the EU that GDP would be 4% higher every year? As in it was 0.1% last year but would have been 4.1%?
That's growth in a single year.Today, the uk's gdp would be at least 4% higher if it had not brexited. It could be as much as 7% (government figures)
And it's not "I think". That's measured.
M.
Mortarboard said:
Vanden Saab said:
Now who is trolling?
Do you genuinely not understand what trade intensity is?M.
Trade intensity figures are actual figures. Same as reported gdp figures are actual figures.
The comparison is simple, straightforward mathematics. The comparison negates both covud effects, and effects from the ukr war.
It was calculated at 4% over two years ago.
It's more than that now.
Your "belief" that's its not correct is irrelevant.
M.
The comparison is simple, straightforward mathematics. The comparison negates both covud effects, and effects from the ukr war.
It was calculated at 4% over two years ago.
It's more than that now.
Your "belief" that's its not correct is irrelevant.
M.
Vanden Saab said:
Mortarboard said:
Deesee said:
Mortarboard said:
Deesee said:
But yet with inflation France Germany and the Netherlands are not exporting to record levels?
Why?
Who cares? It doesn't matter.Why?
"Why is UK trade not improving at the same levels as it G7 peers?" Is the pertinent question.
M.
It's independent of both inflation and currency effects.
M.
ETA- it's usually calculated as a portion of gdp, iirc.
Edited by Mortarboard on Thursday 29th February 20:16
1. Each widget generates 40% profit, but a wodget only generates 10% profit? The 10 widgets have added £10 to the top line and £4 to bottom line profit, whereas the wodget, for all it has added twice as much to the top line, had only added half as much to the bottom line.
2. The manufacture of widgets is made with 100% British materials, but each wodget requires £12 of imported raw materials. Now your £10 of widgets improve our balance of payments by £10 whereas a £20 wodget only improves it by £8.
520TORQUES said:
Kermit power said:
You can see how GDP per capita in PPP $ compares to France & Germany on this Statista page.
It includes all the G7 countries for all years from 2000 to 2023, but you can zoom in and take countries out to your heart's content. The summary is...
2016 GDP per capita
France - $45,376
Germany - $52,175
UK - $45,450
2023 GDP per capita
France - $48,004
Germany - $53,945
UK - $46,428
Percentage change in GDP per capita 2016 to 2023
France - +5.79%
Germany - +3.39%
UK - 2.15%
Make of that what you will.
The population in Germany is in decline, France population has grown at half the rate of the UK, UK has been growing its population at an enormous rate in the last few years. Those impact GDP per capita.It includes all the G7 countries for all years from 2000 to 2023, but you can zoom in and take countries out to your heart's content. The summary is...
2016 GDP per capita
France - $45,376
Germany - $52,175
UK - $45,450
2023 GDP per capita
France - $48,004
Germany - $53,945
UK - $46,428
Percentage change in GDP per capita 2016 to 2023
France - +5.79%
Germany - +3.39%
UK - 2.15%
Make of that what you will.
If you have zero GDP growth but an increasing population, GDP per capita falls.
To benefit from an increase in population, that increase has to be generating more wealth than the costs associated with having more people to service. It's far from a simple equation to use a stat like GDP per capita to understand what is happening and why.
France: +1.87%
Germany: +1.76%
UK: 2.78%
So yes, the UK population has grown faster than that of either France or Germany, but what does that mean in relative terms?
Between 2016 and 2022, the population increases in terms of actual people were:
France: +1.25m
Germany: +1.55m
UK: +1.36m
So the UK has grown by 110k more people than France and by 190k fewer than Germany.
The population of the UK in 2016 was 65.61m, so those relative changes of 110k and 190k represent 0.168% and -0.290% of the UK population.
I'm perfectly willing to be corrected as I've no training in statistics at all, but I can't see how relative changes in population of less than 0.3% could have anything more than a trivial impact on the fact that over the past 7 years GDP per capita has risen 57.67% faster than the UK in Germany and 169.3% in France?
crankedup5 said:
glazbagun said:
Prolex-UK said:
In answer to the subject of the thread.
No
Pretty much. Cost vs Benefit is pretty much all one way.No
What is the value of "sovereignty" in a globalised world where anyone wishing to trade with our closest export markets will still have to adhere to EU regs?
What is the value of "taking back control" of our borders in a world where our ageing population means we need immigration to keep things working and all Brexit has succeeding in doing is driving away the Europeans whom the more Reform leaning might consider more "like us", meaning we need to let in more of those whom they might consider "invading hordes".
This thread is a bit pointless. Since Brexit, we have had Ukraine and Covid. Brexit will probably take a considerable amount of time before we see what shape it is.
However,
We have also had an incredibly reluctant Government and Civil service and law courts and Parliament to deal with. Hardly National Unity. It’s seems Brexit is continually being scuppered by The Elite who are only interested in their Superiority. This is a British disease. In various parts of the establishment the class system is alive and very well.
Brexit was worth it just to give them a punch in the face.
However,
We have also had an incredibly reluctant Government and Civil service and law courts and Parliament to deal with. Hardly National Unity. It’s seems Brexit is continually being scuppered by The Elite who are only interested in their Superiority. This is a British disease. In various parts of the establishment the class system is alive and very well.
Brexit was worth it just to give them a punch in the face.
Crippo said:
This thread is a bit pointless. Since Brexit, we have had Ukraine and Covid. Brexit will probably take a considerable amount of time before we see what shape it is.
However,
We have also had an incredibly reluctant Government and Civil service and law courts and Parliament to deal with. Hardly National Unity. It’s seems Brexit is continually being scuppered by The Elite who are only interested in their Superiority. This is a British disease. In various parts of the establishment the class system is alive and very well.
Brexit was worth it just to give them a punch in the face.
You forgot to mention the Illuminati and the Lizard peopleHowever,
We have also had an incredibly reluctant Government and Civil service and law courts and Parliament to deal with. Hardly National Unity. It’s seems Brexit is continually being scuppered by The Elite who are only interested in their Superiority. This is a British disease. In various parts of the establishment the class system is alive and very well.
Brexit was worth it just to give them a punch in the face.
Kermit power said:
crankedup5 said:
glazbagun said:
Prolex-UK said:
In answer to the subject of the thread.
No
Pretty much. Cost vs Benefit is pretty much all one way.No
What is the value of "sovereignty" in a globalised world where anyone wishing to trade with our closest export markets will still have to adhere to EU regs?
What is the value of "taking back control" of our borders in a world where our ageing population means we need immigration to keep things working and all Brexit has succeeding in doing is driving away the Europeans whom the more Reform leaning might consider more "like us", meaning we need to let in more of those whom they might consider "invading hordes".
Crippo said:
This thread is a bit pointless. Since Brexit, we have had Ukraine and Covid. Brexit will probably take a considerable amount of time before we see what shape it is.
However,
We have also had an incredibly reluctant Government and Civil service and law courts and Parliament to deal with. Hardly National Unity. It’s seems Brexit is continually being scuppered by The Elite who are only interested in their Superiority. This is a British disease. In various parts of the establishment the class system is alive and very well.
Brexit was worth it just to give them a punch in the face.
Agreed. However,
We have also had an incredibly reluctant Government and Civil service and law courts and Parliament to deal with. Hardly National Unity. It’s seems Brexit is continually being scuppered by The Elite who are only interested in their Superiority. This is a British disease. In various parts of the establishment the class system is alive and very well.
Brexit was worth it just to give them a punch in the face.
Also I look across the Channel and see massive problems within the ‘money makers’ of the EU family.
Paywalled, but the FT is showing a record 5 year trade volume drop for the UK.
7% on exports, 5% on imports.
https://www.ft.com/brexit (first article, dated 1st march)
12% loss overall.
The other 88% better be some exquisite quality to make up for that. Beard oil anyone?
M.
7% on exports, 5% on imports.
https://www.ft.com/brexit (first article, dated 1st march)
12% loss overall.
The other 88% better be some exquisite quality to make up for that. Beard oil anyone?
M.
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