45th President Of The United States, Donald Trump (Vol. 14)
Discussion
EddieSteadyGo said:
I can't really answer that question fully - for most of the cases I've not read the evidence myself, in detail, so I'd just be regurgitating someone else's opinion. I know that gets a pass on this thread, but I don't like doing it. If you pushed me, my feeling on this case ("Hush Money") is it that probably doesn't pass the criminal threshold, and it should probably have been a misdemeanour. And I think the fraud case (re the over-statement of property values), whilst I think he was actually guilty, the penalty was overly punitive, which will be dramatically reduced on appeal.
Dodgy bookkeeping is indeed a misdemeanour, however if committed to facilitate another crime it becomes a felony. Prosecutors say that is this case here, suggesting the payments were made and conducted this way to conceal election law breach, campaign finance violations and tax fraud. They are mostly sticking to the election one though.Crafty_ said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
I can't really answer that question fully - for most of the cases I've not read the evidence myself, in detail, so I'd just be regurgitating someone else's opinion. I know that gets a pass on this thread, but I don't like doing it. If you pushed me, my feeling on this case ("Hush Money") is it that probably doesn't pass the criminal threshold, and it should probably have been a misdemeanour. And I think the fraud case (re the over-statement of property values), whilst I think he was actually guilty, the penalty was overly punitive, which will be dramatically reduced on appeal.
Dodgy bookkeeping is indeed a misdemeanour, however if committed to facilitate another crime it becomes a felony. Prosecutors say that is this case here, suggesting the payments were made and conducted this way to conceal election law breach, campaign finance violations and tax fraud. They are mostly sticking to the election one though.This is worth a read. https://www.justsecurity.org/85831/the-broad-scope...
The good thing about the hush money case (which is what everyone is calling it, so I will continue to) is that it demonstrates how many people are willing to come forward and give testimony against Trump given half a chance.
Not sure how much difference this case is going to make to the election, though.
Not sure how much difference this case is going to make to the election, though.
gregs656 said:
The good thing about the hush money case (which is what everyone is calling it, so I will continue to) is that it demonstrates how many people are willing to come forward and give testimony against Trump given half a chance.
Not sure how much difference this case is going to make to the election, though.
This might be of interest: (Pages 100 - 106 if you don't want to look at anything else)Not sure how much difference this case is going to make to the election, though.
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
RustyMX5 said:
This might be of interest: (Pages 100 - 106 if you don't want to look at anything else)
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
What's your reading on those tables? Seems if you are a Democrat you think the charges are fair, they are serious and that he should be convicted. If you are a Republican you think mostly the opposite. Where they seem to agree is that even if convicted it won't much difference?https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
EddieSteadyGo said:
RustyMX5 said:
This might be of interest: (Pages 100 - 106 if you don't want to look at anything else)
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
What's your reading on those tables? Seems if you are a Democrat you think the charges are fair, they are serious and that he should be convicted. If you are a Republican you think mostly the opposite. Where they seem to agree is that even if convicted it won't much difference?https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
EddieSteadyGo said:
I am not. Which is why I used some important caveats... I said, if I was pushed to give an opinion, my *feeling* would be that it *probably* doesn't pass the criminal threshold. But will look forward to you questioning the credentials of others on this thread, who are far less cautious then I am when giving their view. As you wouldn't want to be inconsistent....
To form that opinion and try to make it palatable with the caveats means you have an opinion on it. You weren’t pushed to give an opinion you were offering it freely, albeit deliberately making it slightly hidden. Nobody in here has the full information on which to make any statement around any trial with absolute legal certainty. We are all just giving opinions. You don’t really seem to criticise Trump though at all. The most you say is that you’d rather he wasn’t elected and that feels like a nod to the mods so as not to get a slap on the wrists.
Mortarboard said:
Floating voters.
Only three things count in november:
- rep turnout for trump
- dem turnout for Biden
- floating voters
The trials really only affect the floating voters intentions.
M.
Interesting and probably true.Only three things count in november:
- rep turnout for trump
- dem turnout for Biden
- floating voters
The trials really only affect the floating voters intentions.
M.
But don't you think that even a few republican voters might become floaters the more they hear about the orange one's 'alleged' misdeeds?
Pitre said:
Interesting and probably true.
But don't you think that even a few republican voters might become floaters the more they hear about the orange one's 'alleged' misdeeds?
Not floaters, but simply not vote. I'd include them under "turnout for trump"But don't you think that even a few republican voters might become floaters the more they hear about the orange one's 'alleged' misdeeds?
There's a few prominent GOP folk who've already publicly said they won't vote for Trump. That, I think, would make a lot more folk comfortable with not voting fir trump also.
M.
Mortarboard said:
Not floaters, but simply not vote. I'd include them under "turnout for trump"
There's a few prominent GOP folk who've already publicly said they won't vote for Trump. That, I think, would make a lot more folk comfortable with not voting fir trump also.
M.
I agree. I still think it is going to be close though. Republicans have a fond memory of Trump's time in office, Dems generally don't view Biden's term favorably. There's a few prominent GOP folk who've already publicly said they won't vote for Trump. That, I think, would make a lot more folk comfortable with not voting fir trump also.
M.
I think it's interesting in any case how the campaigns will play out - nothing about the Trump situation is typical so difficult to know how it will be interpreted by voters.
It's absolutely close. Presidential elections are rarely won by more than a couple of million votes either way- less than 5% or so of votes cast.
The electoral college system further complicates things, as national polls are effectively meaningless.
One piece of advice when looking at polls on the like of fivethortyeight- only look at "likely voters" polls. Registered voters polls are very wishy-washy in us polling.
M.
The electoral college system further complicates things, as national polls are effectively meaningless.
One piece of advice when looking at polls on the like of fivethortyeight- only look at "likely voters" polls. Registered voters polls are very wishy-washy in us polling.
M.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Why would I get a slap on the wrist for not saying that? This thread isn't reserved for just one opinion.
Because you know what you’re pushing and you’re doing everything you can to not be seen as a drive-by Trump fanboy. If you have an opinion just give it explicitly. I do. I get slated, I get called a broken record, told to shut up and so on. I don’t hide my opinion though or try to give it a semblance of respectable LF5335 said:
Because you know what you’re pushing and you’re doing everything you can to not be seen as a drive-by Trump fanboy. If you have an opinion just give it explicitly. I do. I get slated, I get called a broken record, told to shut up and so on. I don’t hide my opinion though or try to give it a semblance of respectable
You clearly don't read any of my posts. I give all of my opinion explicitly. If I add caveats, it's to be more precise, or add clarity, in order to prevent misinterpretation, rather than to please you or anyone else. And I don't believe any of my posts here, with or without caveats, are close to breaking forum rules.EddieSteadyGo said:
rscott said:
Was in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, then Orlando last week - saw one Trump flag in all that time. Far fewer than on previous trips there.
Is your point that you don't think Trump has much support, or you think people prefer not to signal it so overtly?I was in Florida last year - out of curiosity, I spoke with a few locals - seemed to me lots of people were still voting Trump when you spoke with them.
Putting aside the anecdotes, even if you ignore the betting odds, where Trump is still the slight favourite, or the polls, where it still seems extremely close, it's hard to conclude anything other than Trump retaining strong support, whether or not those people chose to display a flag or bumper sticker.
The reality (I believe) is that the extreme (MAGA) cohort is attracted by the nasty, name-calling, barely hidden racism and the horror that is the price of gasoline compared to 4 years ago. These are mainly uneducated, disillusioned, easily lead and easily triggered dim-wits. The more mainstream cohort is relatively wealthy, old, comfortable-in-retirement - but afraid of the world at large and resistant to change. They don't hate, but are scared of brown people and young people who don't think the way they do. There are lots of both profiles in Florida.
For context, I'm originally from the UK, but have lived in Central Florida for 24 years and have been voting for the last 10.
I would describe myself as a moderate conservative - i.e. if the GOP had a less lunatic presidential candidate, I might vote red. The way things stand, I would vote "Not Trump".
There are plenty (though not as many as in 2020) pro-Trump yard signs in my locale.
LF5335 said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Why would I get a slap on the wrist for not saying that? This thread isn't reserved for just one opinion.
Because you know what you’re pushing and you’re doing everything you can to not be seen as a drive-by Trump fanboy. If you have an opinion just give it explicitly. I do. I get slated, I get called a broken record, told to shut up and so on. I don’t hide my opinion though or try to give it a semblance of respectable Some people are a little repetitive because they just are. That’s their style. They are not secret Trumpists because they are not convinced by everything they read on here, which, let’s be honest, has a tendency to read the extreme negative into every piece of Trump gibberish, sometimes more on a wish than a fact.
I know it’s boring repeatedly arguing with people over the same nonsense, but there is no Trumpist plot inherent in not signing up to every negative comment made against the orange s
tgibbon (one of my faves). As you were
Astacus said:
See, this little exchange here makes me uncomfortable. This is supposed to be a thread for considered review of all things Trump. It is not a cult in itself. We are allowed to make comments about how we feel about his chances of election or otherwise without having to chant ‘Boo Trump’ every time we post.
Some people are a little repetitive because they just are. That’s their style. They are not secret Trumpists because they are not convinced by everything they read on here, which, let’s be honest, has a tendency to read the extreme negative into every piece of Trump gibberish, sometimes more on a wish than a fact.
I know it’s boring repeatedly arguing with people over the same nonsense, but there is no Trumpist plot inherent in not signing up to every negative comment made against the orange stgibbon (one of my faves).
As you were
Have a look at what I face whenever I give my view. I despise Trump but I think he’s going to get away with everything. That causes meltdown on here whenever I point out each time he does. Some people are a little repetitive because they just are. That’s their style. They are not secret Trumpists because they are not convinced by everything they read on here, which, let’s be honest, has a tendency to read the extreme negative into every piece of Trump gibberish, sometimes more on a wish than a fact.
I know it’s boring repeatedly arguing with people over the same nonsense, but there is no Trumpist plot inherent in not signing up to every negative comment made against the orange s
tgibbon (one of my faves). As you were
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