Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 4)
Discussion
Ashfordian said:
I'll keep this simple for you as you have spent the last 5 years being unable to understand how guesses work.
1. There is no parallel economy running where the UK voted to remain to compare with, so it is at best a guess by them.
2. They were a country mile out with their predictions if we voted to leave and then leave the EU.
3. We have decades of history on these cowboys getting their forecasts wrong.
That is not the track record to trust any current or future predictions on.
But you keep on believing there are fairies at the bottom of the garden.
And yet there is nothing, zilch, nada, zero to support your flawed hypothesis.1. There is no parallel economy running where the UK voted to remain to compare with, so it is at best a guess by them.
2. They were a country mile out with their predictions if we voted to leave and then leave the EU.
3. We have decades of history on these cowboys getting their forecasts wrong.
That is not the track record to trust any current or future predictions on.
But you keep on believing there are fairies at the bottom of the garden.
Produce something to support your thinking, and we can discuss.
M.
Deesee said:
Rate of growth is a good measure btw.. oh and the Brexit divorce bill is paid up to, so plenty more funds available to attract world wide investment over the coming years.
It isn't evidence that the UK hasn't suffered due to brexit.There's nothing presented in this thread, in the last five years, that even comes close to "proving" the obr model is bunkum/rubbish/inaccurate.
Whereas plenty of evidence has shown it to be correct. Evidence from independent third parties, no less- not fluff opinion pieces.
Amd the obr authors were questioned directly, and their evidence given.
M.
Mortarboard said:
And yet there is nothing, zilch, nada, zero to support your flawed hypothesis.
Produce something to support your thinking, and we can discuss.
M.
You start by providing one of their economic predictions that has been correct, and thus discrediting my third point.Produce something to support your thinking, and we can discuss.
M.
I know you won't waste your time on this as you won't be able to find one. You'll just bluster your way on, believing in the fairies for the another 5 years.
Ashfordian said:
You start by providing one of their economic predictions that has been correct, and thus discrediting my third point.
I know you won't waste your time on this as you won't be able to find one. You'll just bluster your way on, believing in the fairies for the another 5 years.
Already done, multiple times.I know you won't waste your time on this as you won't be able to find one. You'll just bluster your way on, believing in the fairies for the another 5 years.
Even invited the doubting Thomas's to be included in the direct communications with the OBR themselves
And like you've just done, they've dismissed it out of hand, and scuttled off....
M.
Mortarboard said:
Already done, multiple times.
Even invited the doubting Thomas's to be included in the direct communications with the OBR themselves
And like you've just done, they've dismissed it out of hand, and scuttled off....
M.
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable"Even invited the doubting Thomas's to be included in the direct communications with the OBR themselves
And like you've just done, they've dismissed it out of hand, and scuttled off....
M.
This statement has yet to be proved wrong.
Can't be long now before you head off to the bottom of the garden to find some fairies...
CivicDuties said:
I think if we could beam back today's news about the effects of Brexit to early 2016 (i.e. not just today today, but in general what it's done to this country), then it'd be a pretty straightforward win for Remain.
And of course the supposed "project fear" predictions of Remainers have indeed materialised. I do need to point out, of course, that there was plenty of "project fear" in the Leave campaign - Turkey is joining, EU Army, Federalisation etc, none of which has in fact materialised, nor is likely to, 8 years after the vote. Remain has been pretty much entirely vindicated.
To deny this is to deny objective reality.
There was a 20yr body of data to make the strongest case. The objective reality is that remain failed despite this.And of course the supposed "project fear" predictions of Remainers have indeed materialised. I do need to point out, of course, that there was plenty of "project fear" in the Leave campaign - Turkey is joining, EU Army, Federalisation etc, none of which has in fact materialised, nor is likely to, 8 years after the vote. Remain has been pretty much entirely vindicated.
To deny this is to deny objective reality.
"It was too hard". "it was too complicated for people to understand". Yadda Yadda. Those things are probably the biggest failure of the EU and our politics for a long time.
It's done until a strong case can be made to rejoin.
Time will tell on all fronts. We've officially been out for 4yrs or so. With u precedented events happening simultaneously. There is *a lot* of water to go under the bridge.
Meanwhile the next step is sorting out the shower of s
t that inhabits out system, and the system itself.(MrrT - "no plan" was as much a failing of Article 50 being leveraged. That Article was poorly drafted by people who expected it to never be used. Political arrogance).
Ashfordian said:
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable"
This statement has yet to be proved wrong.
Can't be long now before you head off to the bottom of the garden to find some fairies...
Its modelling, not forecasting, and is testable.This statement has yet to be proved wrong.
Can't be long now before you head off to the bottom of the garden to find some fairies...
But you know that, right? /s
Anytime you like with your supporting info...
M.
Ashfordian said:
I'll keep this simple for you as you have spent the last 5 years being unable to understand how guesses work.
1. There is no parallel economy running where the UK voted to remain to compare with, so it is at best a guess by them.
2. They were a country mile out with their predictions if we voted to leave and then leave the EU.
3. We have decades of history on these cowboys getting their forecasts wrong.
That is not the track record to trust any current or future predictions on.
But you keep on believing there are fairies at the bottom of the garden.
What is your gut feel about how Brexit has impacted the UK economically? Positive or negative so far?? 1. There is no parallel economy running where the UK voted to remain to compare with, so it is at best a guess by them.
2. They were a country mile out with their predictions if we voted to leave and then leave the EU.
3. We have decades of history on these cowboys getting their forecasts wrong.
That is not the track record to trust any current or future predictions on.
But you keep on believing there are fairies at the bottom of the garden.
Ashfordian said:
nickfrog said:
Can't you see how this and the repeated use of the word "remoaner" weakens your otherwise legitimate views and makes you come across as somewhat bitter?
Can't you try to cut this stuff out and be more respectful of other people's views if you want them to respect yours?
Why don't you call out the remoaner trolls? We know why, it's because you are a hypocrite.Can't you try to cut this stuff out and be more respectful of other people's views if you want them to respect yours?
I will treat these trolls with the disdain that they deserve and reply appropriately, even if it offends your biased constitution!
Get your own side in order before you start criticising others...
Edited by nickfrog on Saturday 6th April 23:48
Mortarboard said:
crankedup5 said:
I don’t accept that at all, come back in six years time and see how the U.K. is flourishing.
How? What's in place since 2016 that's going to make the uk flourish?Labour being in charge?
(Runs for cover)
M.
(Can’t be arsed running for cover as you are several thousand miles away posting incessantly on a board about a subject which by all rights you should have long since disengaged with if you were sane).
Ridgemont said:
Does it matter to you?
(Can’t be arsed running for cover as you are several thousand miles away posting incessantly on a board about a subject which by all rights you should have long since disengaged with if you were sane).
Maybe he enjoys the debate? And perhaps just embracing the new found democracy we have..... (Can’t be arsed running for cover as you are several thousand miles away posting incessantly on a board about a subject which by all rights you should have long since disengaged with if you were sane).
Ridgemont said:
Does it matter to you?
(Can’t be arsed running for cover as you are several thousand miles away posting incessantly on a board about a subject which by all rights you should have long since disengaged with if you were sane).
Geographical location has nothing to do with it. In fact, it might give him a more dispationate view.(Can’t be arsed running for cover as you are several thousand miles away posting incessantly on a board about a subject which by all rights you should have long since disengaged with if you were sane).
What has it got with anyone's sanity either? Makes no sense.
Oh goody, the holiday classes, the sky is falling and the professionally outraged are whingeing about Brexit again.
Meanwhile those of us who actually deal with the Continent on a daily basis still go there, still work there, still export there and still import from there.
The sky hasn’t fallen. Biz has carried on. Life has carried on. Move on folks, it isn’t worth it.
Meanwhile those of us who actually deal with the Continent on a daily basis still go there, still work there, still export there and still import from there.
The sky hasn’t fallen. Biz has carried on. Life has carried on. Move on folks, it isn’t worth it.
DeejRC said:
Oh goody, the holiday classes, the sky is falling and the professionally outraged are whingeing about Brexit again.
Meanwhile those of us who actually deal with the Continent on a daily basis still go there, still work there, still export there and still import from there.
The sky hasn’t fallen. Biz has carried on. Life has carried on. Move on folks, it isn’t worth it.
....and so, in summary, what was the benefit of Brexit?Meanwhile those of us who actually deal with the Continent on a daily basis still go there, still work there, still export there and still import from there.
The sky hasn’t fallen. Biz has carried on. Life has carried on. Move on folks, it isn’t worth it.
Murph7355 said:
(MrrT - "no plan" was as much a failing of Article 50 being leveraged. That Article was poorly drafted by people who expected it to never be used. Political arrogance).
So now the failure of brexit is down to the drafters of the Lisbon treaty who did not come up with a plan as to how the UK should leave!Art 50 was drafted to give the country looking to leave 2 years to reach an agreement on the terms. I guess those who drafted it assumed if you wanted to leave you would know how the EU works and have come up with a plan for leaving. I guess they never expected our great brexiters to have no idea how the EU worked and no plan.
Interesting and as expected seeing as we are a mainly services based economy.
Growth in UK goods trade (exports plus imports) has fallen well behind the rest of the G7. At the end of 2023, UK goods trade was around 10 per cent below 2019 levels, while it was around 5 higher on average for the rest of the G7 in the third quarter.
Meanwhile, UK services trade growth has been the strongest in the G7. It reached around 12 per cent above 2019 levels at the end of 2023, versus around 9 per cent above in the rest of the G7 in the third quarter.Services galloping ahead now Covid is done.
OBR said:
Growth in UK goods trade (exports plus imports) has fallen well behind the rest of the G7. At the end of 2023, UK goods trade was around 10 per cent below 2019 levels, while it was around 5 higher on average for the rest of the G7 in the third quarter.
Meanwhile, UK services trade growth has been the strongest in the G7. It reached around 12 per cent above 2019 levels at the end of 2023, versus around 9 per cent above in the rest of the G7 in the third quarter.
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