Europe heading into recession

[stongle]

Mrr T said:

We are not talking about a few hundred pounds. Have you considered how many safe deposits boxes it would take to hold £10bn?

Well, in fifties. I think it would weigh in around 24 metric tons and fill around 3 fuel tankers. I’ve been in smaller vaults (not mine but I'm sure some PH directors have similar sized safes).

[anonymous-user]

SpeckledJim said:

I'm acutely aware that I'm asking my questions from a position of intense naivety, so please go gentle with me, but wouldn't it be better to use 'excess' money that needs 'parking' to pay down debt rather than to buy a negative-return asset?

(obviously not, I'm just wondering why?)

Those buying the bond (government debt) are not the ones in debt, they are looking for somewhere to park their wealth.

If you have excess capital you can basically buy stuff (equities) or buy debt (bonds).

[housen]

jsf said:

housen said:

established ???
im not goin into this ...u know what i mean ...look up the meaning of gilt edged ....thats what i mean

Russia was an established economy before it defaulted.

It was only 1 month and they were back, nations that default always get another go on the merry go round, just look at Argentina for that.

Greece would have been far better off just defaulting, but it would have killed the German and French banks and the Euro, so they weren't allowed to.

fck it im going to bite

what was russias moodys or snp rating back then ?

edit ill tell you

S&P BB- stable Oct 07 1996

vs

germany Fitch AAA n/a Aug 10 1994


so maybe i should say not established

as in stable

and triple aaa

Edited by housen on Thursday 10th October 12:55

edit and back to the subject

italys current 10y rating is Moody's Baa3u

so close to russia before its collapse then ;-)

Edited by housen on Thursday 10th October 13:00

[anonymous-user]

jsf said:

Russia was an established economy before it defaulted.

It was only 1 month and they were back, nations that default always get another go on the merry go round, just look at Argentina for that.

Greece would have been far better off just defaulting, but it would have killed the German and French banks and the Euro, so they weren't allowed to.

It all depends who owns your debt. If it's largely external and concerns about future refinancing aside, it can make sense to default.

[tobinen]

Can any of the informed posters here recommend some reading for the non-expert? e.g. a EU/Euro financial system overview for dummies?

I'm with SJ (I think) in that I'd like to at least know some basics and reasonings, but I don't need or want to know fine detail at professional level.

[SpeckledJim]

jsf said:

SpeckledJim said:

I'm acutely aware that I'm asking my questions from a position of intense naivety, so please go gentle with me, but wouldn't it be better to use 'excess' money that needs 'parking' to pay down debt rather than to buy a negative-return asset?

(obviously not, I'm just wondering why?)

Those buying the bond (government debt) are not the ones in debt, they are looking for somewhere to park their wealth.

If you have excess capital you can basically buy stuff (equities) or buy debt (bonds).

Thanks. Don't governments (or at least, central banks) buy each others' bonds though?

[stongle]

tobinen said:

Can any of the informed posters here recommend some reading for the non-expert? e.g. a EU/Euro financial system overview for dummies?

I'm with SJ (I think) in that I'd like to at least know some basics and reasonings, but I don't need or want to know fine detail at professional level.

Try

www.intereconomics.eu

It covers a wide range of EU issues, inc BREXIT. Its more pro EU in stance than some of this thread, but does give data and reasons for how the EUzone works. Plus its free...

[anonymous-user]

tobinen said:

Can any of the informed posters here recommend some reading for the non-expert? e.g. a EU/Euro financial system overview for dummies?

I'm with SJ (I think) in that I'd like to at least know some basics and reasonings, but I don't need or want to know fine detail at professional level.

do a search on youtube for Mark Blyth, he does some excellent talks that the layman should be able to understand.

[Digga]

jsf said:

tobinen said:

Can any of the informed posters here recommend some reading for the non-expert? e.g. a EU/Euro financial system overview for dummies?

I'm with SJ (I think) in that I'd like to at least know some basics and reasonings, but I don't need or want to know fine detail at professional level.

do a search on youtube for Mark Blyth, he does some excellent talks that the layman should be able to understand.

^This.

Joseph Stiglitz book on the Euro is also extremely useful.

[andy_s]

A vicarious thanks, will also have a look, a blind spot of mine for sure.

[tobinen]

thanks all

[LordLoveLength]

For a quick how it all works guide look up Ray Dalio - how the economic machine works on YouTube.
Good place to start for the basics.

[stongle]

Aside from earlier recommendation, The IMF, OECD and ECB have a lot of data. Its a bit hidden, but data can be found going for a root a round.

The Fed is good also, but its fairly academic stuff.

Bloomberg always, but its mostly paid for content - although you can probably get the gist from the headlines.

Strangely, some of the banks / asset managers also have good stuff. A few pages back I linked some stuff from Blackrock on Monetary Policy. It might be worth just chucking concepts at their search engine and see what it returns.

[anonymous-user]

It's a real shame there isn't a finance GCSE. The basics of personal finance, loans, interest rates, taxes and monetary and fiscal policy would I think be considerably more useful in far more people's lives than half the nonsense we have to learn.

[stongle]

fblm said:

It's a real shame there isn't a finance GCSE. The basics of personal finance, loans, interest rates, taxes and monetary and fiscal policy would I think be considerably more useful in far more people's lives than half the nonsense we have to learn.

True, but I get quite a few drinks bought down the local pub explaining some of this stuff, don't want any old oiks getting in on the action.

I seem to remember some of this stuff in the Understanding Economics and Industrial Society GCSE done at school (a looong tine ago), but suspect most is by the wayside now.

Its quite dangerous, especially now. If you are putting away into a pension, and that scheme has an asset allocation in Eur govt securities - you are likely investing at a negative yield. You need to be saving even more money for retirement. You might have relatively low credit risk, but your savings are not growing. Most people seem oblivious to the facts of where the government debt ends up. Or they cannot distinquish the various types of entities whom hold equities or bonds and why.

Getting your head around negative rates, is a bit tough even for city types. However a basic understanding of wealth - how to protect it and accrue it; does need to be taught.

[housen]

fblm said:

It's a real shame there isn't a finance GCSE. The basics of personal finance, loans, interest rates, taxes and monetary and fiscal policy would I think be considerably more useful in far more people's lives than half the nonsense we have to learn.

yeah basic common sense gcses

like dont get in to debt

who is out to fck you in the real world

what jobs pay but what the downsides are etc

pensions and why u need them and best to get started asap so u can chill sooner

[Digga]

fblm said:

It's a real shame there isn't a finance GCSE. The basics of personal finance, loans, interest rates, taxes and monetary and fiscal policy would I think be considerably more useful in far more people's lives than half the nonsense we have to learn.

+1

It should start well before that. IMHO it is a blindspot in the very basic skills education should provide.

I have seen this, first hand, from all sides; from low-skilled labourers who have to have payslips explained to them, to very intelligent high-earners who manage to totally screw-up their personal finances.

[anonymous-user]

Digga said:

fblm said:

It's a real shame there isn't a finance GCSE. The basics of personal finance, loans, interest rates, taxes and monetary and fiscal policy would I think be considerably more useful in far more people's lives than half the nonsense we have to learn.

+1

It should start well before that. IMHO it is a blindspot in the very basic skills education should provide.

I have seen this, first hand, from all sides; from low-skilled labourers who have to have payslips explained to them, to very intelligent high-earners who manage to totally screw-up their personal finances.

Maybe if the establishment and industry stopped deliberately over complicating things, more people would have a clue?

[tobinen]

Annoyingly I did economics at 'A' level (FWIW) but it's so long ago I've forgotton all of it.

[Digga]

tobinen said:

Annoyingly I did economics at 'A' level (FWIW) but it's so long ago I've forgotton all of it.

I did both 'O' and 'A' level and know for a fact that (at least on the exam board syllabus we studied) the topic of personal finance was only ever covered in cursory manner.

I do know we were taught (well) to write letters and address envelopes in 'O' level English language.

About 20 years back we had a young girl start work, as a trainee in the office. She reckoned she had a GCSE grade 3 in English. She had not the slightest clue how to address an envelope. At all. She lasted about a fortnight.