The Future of Power Generation in Great Britain
Discussion
PushedDover said:
irc said:
Despite all these strategic advantages we are still at risk of power cuts. Excuse me if I don't jump up and down with joy.
Where is the bias in recognising we have a problem?
For the last X years this thread has said we will have Power Cutshow many times has the grid run out of juice ?Where is the bias in recognising we have a problem?
Please do share the times and dates when we ran out.
skwdenyer said:
PushedDover said:
irc said:
Despite all these strategic advantages we are still at risk of power cuts. Excuse me if I don't jump up and down with joy.
Where is the bias in recognising we have a problem?
For the last X years this thread has said we will have Power Cutshow many times has the grid run out of juice ?Where is the bias in recognising we have a problem?
Please do share the times and dates when we ran out.
Nothing to see here. we haven't had widespread blackouts so no need to worry.
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegrap...
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegrap...
irc said:
Nothing to see here. we haven't had widespread blackouts so no need to worry.
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegrap...
The headline "things are going to be tight but probably okay" doesn't sell many papers though. Doom mongers might be right once in a while, in the same way that a stopped clock is right twice a day, but there are a lot of tools in the armoury before we get anywhere near turning off domestic customers, either for gas or power. https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegrap...
Gas - shortages are unlikely, even in the event of another Beast from the East type event. We have more LNG coming in than ever before, and more Norwegian flows than ever before. Industrial customers have contracts to turn down demand and these could be used, but turning off domestic customers is extremely unlikely. I don't see any greater risk of a gas shortage this year than any other year.
Power - Industrial customers with turn down contracts are likely to be asked to turn down, but many business customers will already be using backup generators anyway at peak times. Domestic customers could also be asked (not forced, but asked) to turn down at peak periods, being paid for the privilage of doing so. The biggest risk is when system margins are low Grid might have to work with a lower level of reserve generation than they would like, and any large plant trips could cause problems. This would be dealt with in the same way as what happened a few years ago, with individual transformers automatically disconnecting to reduce demand. The chance of rolling blackouts planned ahead of time because we don't have enough generation is extremely low, and almost non existent. There are so many options before that is considered that it is simply not likely to happen.
Who knows, you might be right and we do see the odd blackout in some areas this winter, but the risk is lower than someone selling you a newspaper might like to admit.
irc said:
Nothing to see here. we haven't had widespread blackouts so no need to worry.
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegrap...
And again :https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegrap...
For the last X years this thread has said we will have Power Cutshow many times has the grid run out of juice ?
Please do share the times and dates when we ran out.
xeny said:
How much non renewable capacity have we decommissioned over those X years?
How much Renewable capacity has been commissioned?Someone answer the damn question please ? All the worrying that constantly goes on in the thread, and all the tin pot websites linked to - surely we’ve had at least one power outage in the UK because of the numerous decisions the PH experts lambast.
One ? Just list one if you’re struggling to pin down a few for me.
Thanks
Well to be fair the only time I can recall when there were major outages due to simply running out of juice even after grid voltage had been reduced is back due to the '72 miner's strike.
Any other major outages have all been related to major storms, which is different.
Of course that's discounting the many winters where load shedding has occurred and if you have ever worked in a workplace which was a high user shouod be able to recall many occasions where been told to shut all the kit down, office lights down to just what's required for safety, boiling a kettle for a brew expressly forbidden and so on. That's gone on for many years and many occasions, but presumably doesn't count in your scheme of things even though it's demonstrative of supplies getting close to the wire not being an especially new thing.
I can't recall domestic users ever being cut off, other than as a result of a specific incident. Though some areas are subject to frequent cuts. My eldest brother suffers power cuts so often that set himself up with backup generator. I assume those cuts are service equipment related so don't count for your question.
Any other major outages have all been related to major storms, which is different.
Of course that's discounting the many winters where load shedding has occurred and if you have ever worked in a workplace which was a high user shouod be able to recall many occasions where been told to shut all the kit down, office lights down to just what's required for safety, boiling a kettle for a brew expressly forbidden and so on. That's gone on for many years and many occasions, but presumably doesn't count in your scheme of things even though it's demonstrative of supplies getting close to the wire not being an especially new thing.
I can't recall domestic users ever being cut off, other than as a result of a specific incident. Though some areas are subject to frequent cuts. My eldest brother suffers power cuts so often that set himself up with backup generator. I assume those cuts are service equipment related so don't count for your question.
PushedDover said:
That can’t be right surely.
Loads of posters here and their web links suggest this is a widespread issue.
Not one power outage ?
Clearly it's just one person's experience, but it depends what you define as a power outage for the purpose of this discussion.Loads of posters here and their web links suggest this is a widespread issue.
Not one power outage ?
Clearly I've eliminated all experienced outages due to events such as equipment failures or major weather events. Power was off for some days over a wide area after a massive snowstorm, that doesn't count, or does it?
Aiui the discussion is around the grid just running out of juice and enforced shutdowns. Load shedding comes close to that but essentially it's not actually completely run out of juice and thus blackout.
But that's just my interpretation of the question you were asking. If that's wrong and you want a different definition of what you're looking for then define the question more clearly and go to create an argument with someone else.
PushedDover said:
That can’t be right surely.
Loads of posters here and their web links suggest this is a widespread issue.
Not one power outage ?
Well, in the past, when we got close, we had more coal plants, nuclear plants and gas plants. Not sure how past supplies (some now threatened with fuel supply issues and some now closed down completely) ensure that we won't have a problem this winter, especially if the people we interconnect with have no power to share and the renewables are plagued by the gloomy doldrums. How does that work?Loads of posters here and their web links suggest this is a widespread issue.
Not one power outage ?
How many Ocean Liners had hit icebergs and sank on their maiden voyages before Titanic?
andymadmak said:
PushedDover said:
That can’t be right surely.
Loads of posters here and their web links suggest this is a widespread issue.
Not one power outage ?
Well, in the past, when we got close, we had more coal plants, nuclear plants and gas plants. Not sure how past supplies (some now threatened with fuel supply issues and some now closed down completely) ensure that we won't have a problem this winter, especially if the people we interconnect with have no power to share and the renewables are plagued by the gloomy doldrums. How does that work?Loads of posters here and their web links suggest this is a widespread issue.
Not one power outage ?
How many Ocean Liners had hit icebergs and sank on their maiden voyages before Titanic?
Generally speaking that is mainly true. Particularly when there have been significant changes to the general market environment.
Which is exactly the case here. It's true that installed capacity has increased which means in theory capacity utilisation has fallen from the 97% it used to be a while ago. Problem arises with much of that capacity included in the installed side of things is intermittent due to situations outside our control, wind not blowing, no sun. The situation then depends on the circumstances at that time and it's been close on occasions.
Back to past performance is not etc etc.
PushedDover said:
xeny said:
How much non renewable capacity have we decommissioned over those X years?
How much Renewable capacity has been commissioned?Someone answer the damn question please ? All the worrying that constantly goes on in the thread, and all the tin pot websites linked to - surely we’ve had at least one power outage in the UK because of the numerous decisions the PH experts lambast.
For example, here's a post from 2011
PH archive said:
We'll be into rolling blackouts in this decade anyway - without extra load. And why? Because the Greens with their stupid CO2 fixation won't countenance building more coal fired power stations to make the electricity.
Or this from 2010PH archive said:
electric cars are a joke.
they say that power stations are already pushed to the limit with these cold winters and we could expect to get blackouts before long.
they say that power stations are already pushed to the limit with these cold winters and we could expect to get blackouts before long.
Condi said:
The biggest risk is when system margins are low Grid might have to work with a lower level of reserve generation than they would like, and any large plant trips could cause problems. This would be dealt with in the same way as what happened a few years ago, with individual transformers automatically disconnecting to reduce demand. The chance of rolling blackouts planned ahead of time because we don't have enough generation is extremely low, and almost non existent.
I think I'd rather have a planned outage than say a 10% chance of an unplanned one, but presumably we're talking about low single digit %. likelihoods?xeny said:
PushedDover said:
xeny said:
How much non renewable capacity have we decommissioned over those X years?
How much Renewable capacity has been commissioned?What’s the favourite colour of ……
You’re the one saying we are pooped. I’m guessing because of your first question - decommissioning of non-renewable power generation.
I don’t believe we are exposed (and I ask you too : last power outage because of the system?)
I can take a healthy stab at the amount of enewableUK generation installed since whatever date you want (when back from hols), but I don’t believe it is as important as you do.
The system is working. Tight. But working.
But we haven't built mutch dispatchable generation in the uk for what, 15 years ? And in that time how much thermal generation has been shutdown ?
I think it's only interconnectors and wind/solar that's been built in that time.
Edit , oops, three built, last in 2016 but against a decline in gas generation and a loss of three nukes (ok, one hardly ever worked )
Even so, if we have a near Europe low wind and little French nuke output, it would be really tight if say SZB trips on a cold night.
I just hope we don't end up being blamed
I think it's only interconnectors and wind/solar that's been built in that time.
Edit , oops, three built, last in 2016 but against a decline in gas generation and a loss of three nukes (ok, one hardly ever worked
)Even so, if we have a near Europe low wind and little French nuke output, it would be really tight if say SZB trips on a cold night.
I just hope we don't end up being blamed
Edited by Gary C on Monday 12th September 18:43
Edited by Gary C on Monday 12th September 18:48
Edited by Gary C on Monday 12th September 18:49
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