Do you think Blair will ever understand how hated he is?

[Derek Smith]

Apache said:

powerful? well connected? devious? not sure if he is clever as such

I think it is dangerous to underestimate Blair. He's not particularly intellectually gifted, nor are some of his choices particularly sensible but it does have that shrewdness of mind, similar perhaps to Bernie Ecclestone, which allows him to survive and prosper despite his limitations.

The one thing I think I would call a weakness is the ease with which he can be influenced by those whom he regards as 'clever'. The other one thing I would call a weakness is his God bothering although that might be part of his first weakness as Cherry Booth might well have got him there and also there was something about his early days of friendship with a priest or something.

I also often wondered if this pursuit of the dollar is more down to his missus than his own innate desires. Again perhaps it is down to his first weakness.

But we've all got weak spots. I think the suggestion that Mandelson pulls the strings might be a bit off target. Mandy gives as well as takes, unlike the song. Whilst there is no doubt in my mind that Mandy's influence on Blair is substantial I think that goes for many people.

[otolith]

Derek Smith said:

Mandy gives as well as takes

Now there's a mental image I didn't need.

[The Don of Croy]

martin84 said:

Its easy to forget now but Tony Blair did win three general elections, the only Labour politician in history to do so and to begin with at least he was very popular. Yes the 2001 election was notable for voter apathy but that doesn't prove people hated Blair, if they 'hated' him they'd have gone out and voted for somebody else but they didn't, they stayed at home because people generally weren't bothered in 2001. Everyone was happy with the status quo in 2001, there was very little to complain about generally (unlike in 2010) so when the public stay at home thats just as much of an endorsement for you to continue in Government as a high turnout landslide. His popularity was hugely dented in 2003 of course and the 2005 election was extremely tight, yes Tory voters will bang on about boundaries and how farcical it was that Labour returned so many MP's with such a low share of the pop vote but the Tories didn't get the votes they needed where they needed them so they also have to look at that.

The turnout in 2005 (two years after a dodgy invasion of another country) was still lower than in 2010, make of that what you will.

Given the exmeplary control of the media exhibited by the Labour machine in 1997 (and onwards) then the three election victories is understandable. In the run up to 1997 the negative portrayal of Major was incredible - almost no-one was left in any doubt as the man's incompetence and general 'greyness'. And yet in 1992 he won an election with the highest number of votes ever in a UK election.

The sainted Tone went along with this every inch of the way - the wholesale use of 'media black arts' to build an image around the leader, the feelgood factor, the receptions at No 10 for Oasis etc etc. The Prime Minister as celebrity. Well done!

Except I want the Prime Minister to do actual politicking rather than grandstanding. I'll never forget that, on the first day as PM, we were shown the adoring and rapturous crowds (of Labour Party workers) outside No 10 as the golden couple took possession. Later, when travelling through the UK by train, similar crowds were bussed to railway stations to wave and shout as the PM's carriage passed through (and from the camera onboard a chuffed PM comments on how incredible it is to see cheering groups in far flung places). Sick bag please.

[martin84]

The Don of Croy said:

Given the exmeplary control of the media exhibited by the Labour machine in 1997 (and onwards) then the three election victories is understandable. In the run up to 1997 the negative portrayal of Major was incredible - almost no-one was left in any doubt as the man's incompetence and general 'greyness'. And yet in 1992 he won an election with the highest number of votes ever in a UK election.

1992 was a surprising result though, Labour had been tipped to win albiet very narrowly yet the Tories came out on top with 'shy Tory syndrome' and 'the sun wot won it' etc supposedly being a factor. Of course lets not forget the headline 'THE SUN BACKS BLAIR' which supposedly helped him no end. I'm not sure how much stock you put in the notion of the Sun influencing election results though, I think its more the other way round in that the Sun just latches onto the general mood and peddles what they want to hear.

The Don of Croy said:

I'll never forget that, on the first day as PM, we were shown the adoring and rapturous crowds (of Labour Party workers) outside No 10 as the golden couple took possession. Later, when travelling through the UK by train, similar crowds were bussed to railway stations to wave and shout as the PM's carriage passed through (and from the camera onboard a chuffed PM comments on how incredible it is to see cheering groups in far flung places). Sick bag please.

There were hints of Kim Jong Il about some of it admittedly. The best example was Newsnight's coverage the first time Mandleson resigned, nobody from the opposition was on and the only guests were from the Labour Party as they sat and discussed how the Dear Leader will resolve these issues. The sort of thing you'd see on Chinese state television.

Derek Smith said:

The population tends to forgive prime ministers. In years to come I think Thatcher's legacy will be praised and her mistakes all but ignored. It's what happens. I just can't see the same thing happening with Blair. If you forget all his errors, what's left?

Tony Blair's first term in office - a four year term where as Cameron will get another year - saw the following changes:

Operational independence for the Bank of England (although this was agreed in 1992)
Creation of the national minimum wage.
Signing of the Belfast Agreement.
Ban on gays in the military lifted.
Devolution of power to Wales and Scotland.
Significant changes to the law in regard to gay rights.
Creation of the human rights act.
The removal of hereditary peers from the House of Lords.
Formation of the Greater London Authority.

By the end of the term his Chancellor had announced significant increases in spending for Health & Education as well as an expansion of the Welfare State which - despite the problems the system has all these years on - was done with the intention of reducing poverty, hardly a horrible thing to want to do is it?

If you add in the fact the Government refused to join the Euro - when at one point it looked likely - and ignore the Millennium Dome nonsense then Blair's first term looks like a reasonable job well done.

What has Cameron got done so far?

[0000]

martin84 said:

What has Cameron got done so far?

Less. Thank fk.

[martin84]

0000 said:

Less. Thank fk.

For the millions of pounds Government costs us in them going about their 'work' every day I expect them to do things for it. Never mind the hundreds of billions they tax us in the process.

I'll ask again, what has Cameron got done in two years? Anything?

[otolith]

Scrapped ID cards.
Capped benefits.
Frozen council tax
Taken over a million people out of income tax
Increased the state pension
Cancelled or deferred Labour's planned fuel duty rises

Not having Gordon or Milliband in power is enough achievement, though.

[0000]

martin84 said:

0000 said:

Less. Thank fk.

For the millions of pounds Government costs us in them going about their 'work' every day I expect them to do things for it. Never mind the hundreds of billions they tax us in the process.

I'll ask again, what has Cameron got done in two years? Anything?

You demand a government that pilfers, cheats and wages war at the drop of dodgy dossier over one that does nothing? I'm not sure that's a good use of the money we pay them.

[martin84]

0000 said:

You demand a government that pilfers, cheats and wages war at the drop of dodgy dossier over one that does nothing? I'm not sure that's a good use of the money we pay them.

There was no pilfering, war or cheating in Blair's first term.

The second one however....

otolith said:

Scrapped ID cards.

Its easy to scrap something which never existed for anybody other than non-EU workers. In fact you just have to do nothing.

otolith said:

Capped benefits.

And put more people on them.

otolith said:

Frozen council tax

Depends which Council you live under.

otolith said:

Taken over a million people out of income tax

I'll give you that.

otolith said:

Increased the state pension

Increased the state pension age as well.

otolith said:

Cancelled or deferred Labour's planned fuel duty rises

They could afford to, after putting VAT up to 20% and increasing tax on north sea oil companies. They're still increasing fuel duty this year.

[The Don of Croy]

martin84 said:

Tony Blair's first term in office - a four year term where as Cameron will get another year - saw the following changes:

Operational independence for the Bank of England (although this was agreed in 1992)

- as you say, agreed well before his term

Creation of the national minimum wage.

- but at a lower rate than his union backers wanted

Signing of the Belfast Agreement.

- building on much clandestine work started and maintained under the previous administrations

Ban on gays in the military lifted.

- another major milestone for UK society. Or not.

Devolution of power to Wales and Scotland.

- yes, well, we'll see how well that plays out over the longer term, shall we?

Significant changes to the law in regard to gay rights.

- see military above

Creation of the human rights act.

- and who's wife just happened to be one of the most forthright HR lawyers in the UK? And sleaze was dead?

The removal of hereditary peers from the House of Lords.

- leaving a mess that is still not even partly corrected

Formation of the Greater London Authority.

- taking us back to where the GLC left off in the 1980's