Politics in France
Discussion
Rich_W said:
AIUI If Le Pen gets 50% of the vote there is no second round.
I can actually see her getting mid 40s
I see her getting 25%, and in the run off in the 2nd round only a few % more.I can actually see her getting mid 40s
FN is not the same "alt right" as the UKIP, FN is France's BNP despite them trying to pretend they're not racist.
In reality it's between Macron and Fillon, which ever one gets through to the 2nd round will be president. The only one who could create a surprise would be Melanchon if he can somehow get more % than the two more sensible candidates, and then it ends up with two silly parties in the 2nd round.
Rich_W said:
AIUI If Le Pen gets 50% of the vote there is no second round.
I can actually see her getting mid 40s
No chance, are you just stabbing away at the dark there or do you actually know what you are talking about?I can actually see her getting mid 40s
She'll get somewhere between 20 and 25%, if that gets her to the second round she'll get absolutely trounced by Macron.
Edited by FN2TypeR on Sunday 23 April 17:16
FN2TypeR said:
Rich_W said:
AIUI If Le Pen gets 50% of the vote there is no second round.
I can actually see her getting mid 40s
No chance, are you just stabbing away at the dark there or do you actually know what you are talking about?I can actually see her getting mid 40s
She'll get somewhere between 20 and 25%, if that gets her to the second round she'll get absolutely trounced by Macron.
She's been polling mid 20s?? Same as Macron.
But I think back to Remain and POTUS and remember that those who will vote a certain way, didn't "do polls" so given the current and recent past events of France, it may be higher than the MSM expects.
Fillion has little chance of making the second round IMO
Yipper said:
Turnout has been lower than the previous two elections. And Macron seems to have won.
Despite all the hype, it looks almost certain to be another loss for the far-right (after losing Holland and Austria).
Despite all the hype, it looks almost certain to be another loss for the far-right (after losing Holland and Austria).
A loss in politics is when you've had power. Worst case the loss here will be if Le Pen has a smaller %age of the vote. She got 17.9% in 2012...
Rich_W said:
Bit of both.
She's been polling mid 20s?? Same as Macron.
But I think back to Remain and POTUS and remember that those who will vote a certain way, didn't "do polls" so given the current and recent past events of France, it may be higher than the MSM expects.
Fillion has little chance of making the second round IMO
Fillon hasn't made it, it seems.She's been polling mid 20s?? Same as Macron.
But I think back to Remain and POTUS and remember that those who will vote a certain way, didn't "do polls" so given the current and recent past events of France, it may be higher than the MSM expects.
Fillion has little chance of making the second round IMO
She now needs to more than double her vote and a lot of people find her repellant - she's been kept at bay through tactical voting before and it'll happen again
French Tony Blair about to be elected, he looks like a callow child.
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