Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

Author
Discussion

Sheets Tabuer

19,167 posts

217 months

Friday 24th May
quotequote all
You can't trust Russia, they've literally broken every treaty they've signed recognising Ukraines sovereignty.

This to me is them wanting a pause so they can re-arm and as soon as they have they'll go for the rest of it because there has been very little consequence so far. fk them.

Talksteer

4,984 posts

235 months

Friday 24th May
quotequote all
RichFN2 said:
Adam. said:
Might be a combination of:

recent territory gains - can be sold as a win
fear of new influx of weapons
ATACMS seems to be very efffective and now longer range
Shoigu replacement is an economist who maybe explained the financial ststorm Putin is creating
My vote is with the longer range ATACMS, they are simply too fast for any Russian air defence to intercept them (3x faster than HIMARS iirc)

I think so far the longer range version have had 100% success rate.
It won't be speed, not least because the actual velocity at impact will be a fair bit lower as the missile slows in the lower atmosphere. It is also possible to intercept a missile going faster than the defending missile if it's on a ballistic course and you know where its going. ATCMS isn't going faster than Iraq Scud derivatives in 1991 that Patriot could hit (or at least target even if fuzes and warhead weren't optimised and the system couldn't tell the incoming warhead apart from the rest of the missiles that was breaking up on re-entry).

It's most likely a combination of decoys, maneuvering of the incoming missile and targeting of the defending radars to keep them off line.



BikeBikeBIke

8,420 posts

117 months

Friday 24th May
quotequote all
Sheets Tabuer said:
You can't trust Russia, they've literally broken every treaty they've signed recognising Ukraines sovereignty.

This to me is them wanting a pause so they can re-arm and as soon as they have they'll go for the rest of it because there has been very little consequence so far. fk them.
Or just want to bring it up to cause confusion. Or more likely the story is just false.

Hard to see why Putin would a) Want a ceasefire before November and b) Would be leaking it to the media.

J4CKO

41,853 posts

202 months

Friday 24th May
quotequote all
Wonder if the hunter may become the hunted here ?

Ukraine may not want to just agree to stop, might want to make a point.

LM240

4,732 posts

220 months

Friday 24th May
quotequote all
BikeBikeBIke said:
Sheets Tabuer said:
You can't trust Russia, they've literally broken every treaty they've signed recognising Ukraines sovereignty.

This to me is them wanting a pause so they can re-arm and as soon as they have they'll go for the rest of it because there has been very little consequence so far. fk them.
Or just want to bring it up to cause confusion. Or more likely the story is just false.

Hard to see why Putin would a) Want a ceasefire before November and b) Would be leaking it to the media.
Regroup and dig in

Build up both men and equipment

Replenish stocks

…. Then go again.

I believe only solution to this is complete victory over the invading forces. Then a ceasefire and UN type buffer zones and proper assurances that if they do it again, it will be NATO alliance coming in.

hidetheelephants

25,512 posts

195 months

BikeBikeBIke

8,420 posts

117 months

Friday 24th May
quotequote all
LM240 said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
Sheets Tabuer said:
You can't trust Russia, they've literally broken every treaty they've signed recognising Ukraines sovereignty.

This to me is them wanting a pause so they can re-arm and as soon as they have they'll go for the rest of it because there has been very little consequence so far. fk them.
Or just want to bring it up to cause confusion. Or more likely the story is just false.

Hard to see why Putin would a) Want a ceasefire before November and b) Would be leaking it to the media.
Regroup and dig in

Build up both men and equipment

Replenish stocks

…. Then go again.

I believe only solution to this is complete victory over the invading forces. Then a ceasefire and UN type buffer zones and proper assurances that if they do it again, it will be NATO alliance coming in.
Can't disagree with any of that but I think it's too big an ask. I've always thought this was gonna end in a frozen conflict and I still do. It sucks, and as you say its highly likely to reignite when it suits Russia.

The alternative is Ukraine to recruit many tens of thousands of men *and* equip them *and* gain air supremecy *and* train everyone in all arms combat. Plus they'd be sacrificing a large number of those men.

I want to be wrong.

Hopefully Putin's successor might regard withdrawing as a small price for returning to the international fold.

TopTrump

3,247 posts

176 months

Friday 24th May
quotequote all
Noy sure I believe Putin's real intentions at this point and the deal would be farcical... I do sense everyone has lost patience with it all

borcy

3,355 posts

58 months

Glasgowrob

3,249 posts

123 months

Saturday 25th May
quotequote all
TopTrump said:
Noy sure I believe Putin's real intentions at this point and the deal would be farcical... I do sense everyone has lost patience with it all
not exactly coming from a position of trust now is he?


but its incredibly easy, stand troops down immediately return to within russian borders and send a delegation to negotiate reparations.

Prolex-UK

3,162 posts

210 months

Saturday 25th May
quotequote all
J4CKO said:
Wonder if the hunter may become the hunted here ?

Ukraine may not want to just agree to stop, might want to make a point.
Wonder if the population have the appetite to carry on if Pootin says stop.



Digga

40,595 posts

285 months

Saturday 25th May
quotequote all
Prolex-UK said:
J4CKO said:
Wonder if the hunter may become the hunted here ?

Ukraine may not want to just agree to stop, might want to make a point.
Wonder if the population have the appetite to carry on if Pootin says stop.
They are on a part of the FAFO matrix where they now realise that participation in, or facilitation of the crony oligarchy leaves them powerless. Opposition is absent.

Russians - the previously comfortable and untouchable- could now find things getting a lot more uncomfortable, very quickly.

Iamnotkloot

1,457 posts

149 months

Saturday 25th May
quotequote all
Interesting piece in the Guardian from Polands foreign minister:

“He was sceptical about Russian threats to use nuclear weapons, saying: “The Americans have told the Russians that if you explode a nuke, even if it doesn’t kill anybody, we will hit all your targets [positions] in Ukraine with conventional weapons, we’ll destroy all of them.

“I think that’s a credible threat. Also, the Chinese and the Indians have read Russia the riot act. And it’s no child’s play because if that taboo were also to be breached, like the taboo of not changing borders by force, China knows that Japan and Korea would go nuclear, and presumably they don’t want that.””

So we all knew the Russian nuclear propaganda was bulls**t but this just confirms it.

Richard-G

1,682 posts

177 months

Saturday 25th May
quotequote all
Digga said:
Prolex-UK said:
J4CKO said:
Wonder if the hunter may become the hunted here ?

Ukraine may not want to just agree to stop, might want to make a point.
Wonder if the population have the appetite to carry on if Pootin says stop.
They are on a part of the FAFO matrix where they now realise that participation in, or facilitation of the crony oligarchy leaves them powerless. Opposition is absent.

Russians - the previously comfortable and untouchable- could now find things getting a lot more uncomfortable, very quickly.
I think one of the most telling moments of this war was the reception by the Russian public that last years insurrection received. Flowers in the street, handshakes for prigozhin and the troops treated as hero's. Shows that the Russian public like A, force, B violence and that C they don't much care for who is running the country, either nut job will do.

However I think now they've seen Ukraine attack 100s of miles into russia with essentially remote control cessna's they are now realising that Putin cannot actually protect them and that they are in effect quite weak now. The talking heads on the Russian TV who keep saying 'paris in 3 months' are now made to look increasingly stupid by the fact 100 mph drones keep smashing up various key installations.

If Ukraine can get a marquee target such as the bridge or something BIG by the end of summer we could really see the stakes raised to a level that the Russians won't want to play in. They clearly cannot sustain the current losses at present, it's nearing 350,000+ dead and wounded now, a good 75% of that figure are Russian 'men'

myvision

1,955 posts

138 months

Saturday 25th May
quotequote all

Adam.

27,472 posts

256 months

Saturday 25th May
quotequote all
Glasgowrob said:
but its incredibly easy, stand troops down immediately return to within russian borders and send a delegation to negotiate reparations.
Which he would never do, he will try and negotiate ceasefire and current front line is a new border (give or take), then see if the West has the stomach to continue.

Digga

40,595 posts

285 months

Saturday 25th May
quotequote all
Iamnotkloot said:
Interesting piece in the Guardian from Polands foreign minister:

“He was sceptical about Russian threats to use nuclear weapons, saying: “The Americans have told the Russians that if you explode a nuke, even if it doesn’t kill anybody, we will hit all your targets [positions] in Ukraine with conventional weapons, we’ll destroy all of them.

“I think that’s a credible threat. Also, the Chinese and the Indians have read Russia the riot act. And it’s no child’s play because if that taboo were also to be breached, like the taboo of not changing borders by force, China knows that Japan and Korea would go nuclear, and presumably they don’t want that.””

So we all knew the Russian nuclear propaganda was bulls**t but this just confirms it.
Agreed. As is to underline the various hazards, the B52 that’s just taken off from UK this morning, flying into the Baltic.

Russia are quadruple fked if they even so much as just fart a bit nuclear.

borcy

3,355 posts

58 months

magpie215

4,463 posts

191 months

Saturday 25th May
quotequote all
borcy said:
Great news if true.... Russian assets that are incredibly difficult to replace.