The Future of Power Generation in Great Britain

[rolando]

I see that RegenSW haven't produced their annual Renewable Energy Progress Report this year. I guess this i due to a lack of same.

[turbobloke]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

turbobloke said:

Exactly as per the actions of the British Wind Energy Association

Current?


Nope

What a ridiculous response. It occurred, sanctioned by management and published for the world (and the letter writers) to see, that's all we need to know.

What's your windy policy on past examples of stand-over thuggery outside the windymill world fiasco? Presumably it's OK because it happened in the past.

[turbobloke]

Marvellous

[alangla]

Gary C said:

https://gbcmn.nationalgrid.co.uk/

Thanks - so if I've read that properly, there have been no (real) capacity notices issued so far in 2017.

Tonight might be interesting to watch - demand at the moment (0930) is 47.5GW already, wind is down to 5.4GW. As it's daytime, solar is apparently supplying 610MW. Coal still flat out (9.3GW), nuclear still at 6.3GW

[MYOB]

Guys, what's the problem here. It's acknowledged that there is no perfect trouble free single source of energy. All sources have a place in generating electricity collectively. Security of supply innit!

We even import electricity to help with demand. Stop banging on about wind. It's recognised wind is not the sole answer but it damn well has a part to play alongside other sources.

Irrefutable fact! I'm done...

[alangla]

MYOB said:

Guys, what's the problem here. It's acknowledged that there is no perfect trouble free single source of energy. All sources have a place in generating electricity collectively. Security of supply innit!

We even import electricity to help with demand. Stop banging on about wind. It's recognised wind is not the sole answer but it damn well has a part to play alongside other sources.

Irrefutable fact! I'm done...

It's the security of supply I'm interested in - we're actually exporting (assuming I've read the gauges on Gridwatch correctly) electricity at the moment and the French probably won't be in a position to sell any to us, so it's likely that tonight or next week will be a crunch time for the grid. How it copes & what measures are used, both here & on the continent, will indicate whether we can, realistically, cope with further use of wind or other intermittent sources with the current or lower level of backup. It's worth noting that, at the moment, if all the coal stations stopped generating immediately, (again, if I've read it properly), the lights would go out. Those stations will be offline soon due to emissions requirements.

[MYOB]

Yes, I agree the UK is at its peak. The coal generating stations are closing and the UK is in desperate need of more generating stations, hence the push for nuclear.

The UK govt knows wind alone is insufficient but it has a part to play.

But the truth of the matter is, is that govt cannot force or dictate what is being built or planned by developers. Granted that have a role to make conditions more or less attractive and thus indirectly influence the fuel types that developers may propose to build.

But brexit and economy are not exactly favourable for developers. So, despite my waffling, yes, the picture for electricity is looking bleak in the UK. We desperately need hinckley point c, but not at the absurd price it's costing.

There are no one answers...hence security of supply.

[MYOB]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

The last point is important
Hinckley Point - it simply can’t go ahead with that price.

Not to mention the anticipated costs of Swansea bay tidal lagoon, as well as their requirement to provide financial security for the eventual decommissioning.

[V8 Fettler]

More Drax please, the coal burning variety.

[turbobloke]

Wondeful

Meanwhile large-scale renewables are not fit for purpose but they are costly and pointless (RE<C / EROEI) against which evidence - based on science and engineering principles not green blob dogma - your mere opinion is worthless, but you're entitled to it.

[Gary C]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

The last point is important
Hinckley Point - it simply can’t go ahead with that price.

Why not ?

Wind farms have gone ahead at a higher price.

[Gary C]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Sure they have as Kickstarter type projects, to bring in the innovation and reduce the LCOE
How has Nuclear prices been progressing?

Nuclear power prices for existing nuclear around £40-50mwhr, better in real terms than in the mid to late 90's,if you discount the chronic under investment of the time, but no innovation or build since the early 90's. The AGR fleet were all largely experimental nationalised projects never meant to make a real profit and sizewell b was because we got bored of gas reactors so we took an existing design and re-worked it.

The nuclear market has a part to play as has wind if we really want to decarbonise and the only way anyone was to take on the risk was to have a price it would work at. Maybe once edf have an operating station, the other interested parties will finally invest.

So are you saying, wind deserves much larger subsidies to get it up and running but no other tech does ?

[MYOB]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Do we think Hinckley is good VFM ?

Of course not, and the Govt has shot itself in the foot at the strike price of £92.50/MWh with EdF because the other nuclear projects in the pipeline will expect similar deals for theirs when they propose to submit their planning applications. But we all know the strike price for HPC was a "one time only" deal in an attempt to "get the ball rolling" for new nuclear generating stations.

[V8 Fettler]

alangla said:

Gary C said:

https://gbcmn.nationalgrid.co.uk/

Thanks - so if I've read that properly, there have been no (real) capacity notices issued so far in 2017.

Tonight might be interesting to watch - demand at the moment (0930) is 47.5GW already, wind is down to 5.4GW. As it's daytime, solar is apparently supplying 610MW. Coal still flat out (9.3GW), nuclear still at 6.3GW

A minimum of 5GW would be a big improvement on previous efforts

[V8 Fettler]

MYOB said:

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Do we think Hinckley is good VFM ?

Of course not, and the Govt has shot itself in the foot at the strike price of £92.50/MWh with EdF because the other nuclear projects in the pipeline will expect similar deals for theirs when they propose to submit their planning applications. But we all know the strike price for HPC was a "one time only" deal in an attempt to "get the ball rolling" for new nuclear generating stations.

Procurement process for Hinkley Point C was and is a shambles, too few engineers involved in the decision-making processes over the decades.

[V8 Fettler]

Gary C said:

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Sure they have as Kickstarter type projects, to bring in the innovation and reduce the LCOE
How has Nuclear prices been progressing?

Nuclear power prices for existing nuclear around £40-50mwhr, better in real terms than in the mid to late 90's,if you discount the chronic under investment of the time, but no innovation or build since the early 90's. The AGR fleet were all largely experimental nationalised projects never meant to make a real profit and sizewell b was because we got bored of gas reactors so we took an existing design and re-worked it.

The nuclear market has a part to play as has wind if we really want to decarbonise and the only way anyone was to take on the risk was to have a price it would work at. Maybe once edf have an operating station, the other interested parties will finally invest.

So are you saying, wind deserves much larger subsidies to get it up and running but no other tech does ?

The fast breeder at Dounreay was experimental, AGRs aren't experimental, they are a logical progression from Magnox. although there was an element of R&D undertaken during construction.

The intention was to sell AGRs abroad, this never happened due primarily to construction cost and adverse US influence favouring their bloated submarine reactors. This could have been countered by factoring in a cost element for risk, e.g. Fukushima

[rolando]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

(Wind is imho now effectively free of subsidies going forward and will be deployed in the scale the developers want, not the size of the CFD allocation constrains to- bringing the costs down further)

Now explain why the rush to build onshore wind farms has ended. I take it that the developers have come to the conclusion that, at any scale, it is no longer worth the investment, thank God.

[turbobloke]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

(Wind is imho now effectively free of subsidies going forward and will be deployed in the scale the developers want, not the size of the CFD allocation constrains to- bringing the costs down further)

Hang on a mo, we've been here before with you and your 'wind is now effectively free of subsidies going forward' nonsense, you even mention future subsidies (CFD auctions) in the same post! WTF?

Reuters said:

UK To Provide £557m Funding for Renewable Subsidy Auctions

The next so-called contracts-for-difference (CfD) auction will take place in spring 2019, the government said in a statement but has not yet confirmed how much will be available for that auction.

UPDATE

The British government confirmed on Wednesday up to 557 million pounds of funding for the next clean electricity auctions for less-established renewables.

Are you in a Tardis looking back on 2019? Try telling it as it is for once.

[turbobloke]

rolando said:

Now explain why the rush to build onshore wind farms has ended. I take it that the developers have come to the conclusion that, at any scale, it is no longer worth the investment, thank God.

Subsidy farmers need to move on to 'less established' renewables including offshore schemes to milk the 2019 subsidies as per the previous post.

Even there, the FT notes that offshore wind subsidies have dropped 50% (yay!) as of Sept this year, but are not zero.

https://www.ft.com/content/2ce7ac15-ee6e-3f9a-b427...

EcoBeeb said:

New onshore wind farms will be excluded from a subsidy scheme from 1 April 2016, a year earlier than expected.

Green Blob pockets are getting more difficult to line at public expense, hurrah!

Edited by turbobloke on Saturday 2nd December 09:13

[MYOB]

rolando said:

Now explain why the rush to build onshore wind farms has ended. I take it that the developers have come to the conclusion that, at any scale, it is no longer worth the investment, thank God.

It was a political decision.