Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 8)

[pocty]

poo at Paul's said:

pocty said:

Thank you your views.

Its really healthy to get some balance even though I don't agree with your views.

Most people wont still keep their jobs


Pocty

I appreciate your opinion and view too, but i cant see how you think that "most people" will not keep their jobs. I am not saying millions of people wont lose them, or need to change them... they will.
But there would have to be about 17million additional people unemployed, on top of the 2million we have at the moment for that to be true, ie more than half the employed people in this country losing their jobs?

There's about 33million employed people in UK ie of employable age and working.
Ive not seen any estimate higher than 7 million becoming unemployed, and there is what, 1.5 million out of work at the moment?
Its a massive increase, ie another 5.5 million, but it still means 28million will be working.
Dont get me wrong, it will be very difficult if we get near to that, but the fact remains, most people who currently work, will continue to do so. Most people with mortgages, will keep their houses. Not all, but most.

The largest demographic of working people in UK is the 35 to 49 age group. That may change a bit, certainly i can see fewer people in the next category up working in a few years, due to Covid issues.

Oh I see.

So your saying that they will have a job but not the job that they have trained for.

I have lots of friends in the creative industries, Designers, Musicians, DJs, Event Planners, etc non of them have worked since march.
Lets not forget a lot of people in there 40s will be seen as to old to do other jobs and will be on benefits thus not benefitting to the economy through no fault of there own.

I think you are deluded if you think otherwise. Its like the tap has been turned off and theres still water in the hose but there wont be any more new water for a long time.

Please may I ask what you do for a living because I think this has clouded your judgement. I suggest that you speak to the self employed.

P.S your figures reminded me of the Valance and Whittys show on Saturday.

Pocty

[SpeedMattersNot]

pocty said:

Oh I see.

So your saying that they will have a job but not the job that they have trained for.

I have lots of friends in the creative industries, Designers, Musicians, DJs, Event Planners, etc non of them have worked since march.
Lets not forget a lot of people in there 40s will be seen as to old to do other jobs and will be on benefits thus not benefitting to the economy through no fault of there own.

I think you are deluded if you think otherwise. Its like the tap has been turned off and theres still water in the hose but there wont be any more new water for a long time.

Please may I ask what you do for a living because I think this has clouded your judgement. I suggest that you speak to the self employed.

P.S your figures reminded me of the Valance and Whittys show on Saturday.

Pocty

I was working as a mechanic when the last economic crash happened in 2008-2009. The company I worked for (a group of 20 or so dealerships from the South East) went into administration in 2011 due to the car sales slump. We took on Kia but that made no money as servicing was so cheap and every other job was a warranty job.

Many of the technicians changed jobs, the sales staff and even the cleaners did too. I took that as an opportunity to retrain and turned my Level 3 motor vehicle technician qualification into an MSc in Motorsport Engineering over 5 years. I did this whilst raising a young family too.

There will of course be many people who will struggle, but most of them will eventually find a way.

[pocty]

SpeedMattersNot said:

pocty said:

Oh I see.

So your saying that they will have a job but not the job that they have trained for.

I have lots of friends in the creative industries, Designers, Musicians, DJs, Event Planners, etc non of them have worked since march.
Lets not forget a lot of people in there 40s will be seen as to old to do other jobs and will be on benefits thus not benefitting to the economy through no fault of there own.

I think you are deluded if you think otherwise. Its like the tap has been turned off and theres still water in the hose but there wont be any more new water for a long time.

Please may I ask what you do for a living because I think this has clouded your judgement. I suggest that you speak to the self employed.

P.S your figures reminded me of the Valance and Whittys show on Saturday.

Pocty

I was working as a mechanic when the last economic crash happened in 2008-2009. The company I worked for (a group of 20 or so dealerships from the South East) went into administration in 2011 due to the car sales slump. We took on Kia but that made no money as servicing was so cheap and every other job was a warranty job.

Many of the technicians changed jobs, the sales staff and even the cleaners did too. I took that as an opportunity to retrain and turned my Level 3 motor vehicle technician qualification into an MSc in Motorsport Engineering over 5 years. I did this whilst raising a young family too.

There will of course be many people who will struggle, but most of them will eventually find a way.

I think your missing the point mate. This is far far worse than 2008. Think of WW1 depression. Lets just say there wont be many people buying cars when this is done so retraining as a mechanic wont help much. You may as well be a blacksmith

Only kidding but how many years do you think it will take for us to find a way.

Pocty

[MG CHRIS]

pocty said:

SpeedMattersNot said:

pocty said:

Oh I see.

So your saying that they will have a job but not the job that they have trained for.

I have lots of friends in the creative industries, Designers, Musicians, DJs, Event Planners, etc non of them have worked since march.
Lets not forget a lot of people in there 40s will be seen as to old to do other jobs and will be on benefits thus not benefitting to the economy through no fault of there own.

I think you are deluded if you think otherwise. Its like the tap has been turned off and theres still water in the hose but there wont be any more new water for a long time.

Please may I ask what you do for a living because I think this has clouded your judgement. I suggest that you speak to the self employed.

P.S your figures reminded me of the Valance and Whittys show on Saturday.

Pocty

I was working as a mechanic when the last economic crash happened in 2008-2009. The company I worked for (a group of 20 or so dealerships from the South East) went into administration in 2011 due to the car sales slump. We took on Kia but that made no money as servicing was so cheap and every other job was a warranty job.

Many of the technicians changed jobs, the sales staff and even the cleaners did too. I took that as an opportunity to retrain and turned my Level 3 motor vehicle technician qualification into an MSc in Motorsport Engineering over 5 years. I did this whilst raising a young family too.

There will of course be many people who will struggle, but most of them will eventually find a way.

I think your missing the point mate. This is far far worse than 2008. Think of WW1 depression. Lets just say there wont be many people buying cars when this is done so retraining as a mechanic wont help much. You may as well be a blacksmith

Only kidding but how many years do you think it will take for us to find a way.

Pocty

There are plenty of people buying cars atm infact a lot of dealers are struggling to get stock to refill their compounds most have very little left. Our dealer had 2 large compounds between 3 brands 1 is completely empty and the other isn't full neither. If that drops in the years ahead is anyone guess but currently the demand hasn't dropped.

[Hub]

grumbledoak said:

BigMacDaddy said:

768 said:

https://www.thelocal.dk/20201104/denmark-to-cull-m...

Will be interesting to see if anything more is reported on this, but I do seem to remember stories breaking earlier in the year of CV or a derivative being spread by domestic cats, dogs, and at one point even tigers?

It isn't a serious concern -

Prof Francois Balloux said:

There are thousands of mutations in #SARSCoV2 arising constantly. The fact that a few have been observed in minks will not change the strains in circulation in humans.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/132408576144930...

They seem to be sufficiently concerned about it! Sufficiently different for them to identify those who have the mutation quite quickly, and quite a few of them.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/06/coro...

I suppose the worry is that it can mutate that easily, what hope is there for vaccines long term.

But yet again it is close contact with animals - have we learned nothing?

[Biker 1]

Hub said:

I suppose the worry is that it can mutate that easily, what hope is there for vaccines long term.

This is the prime reason that I do not believe the magical vaccine will have much efficacy, even assuming negligible side effects........

[isaldiri]

Hub said:

They seem to be sufficiently concerned about it! Sufficiently different for them to identify those who have the mutation quite quickly, and quite a few of them.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/06/coro...

I suppose the worry is that it can mutate that easily, what hope is there for vaccines long term.

But yet again it is close contact with animals - have we learned nothing?

I think it's more an issue of lots of mink crammed together that allows for a possible mutation to emerge more quickly with unknown consequences. At the moment nothing seems to be of an immediate danger or concern. Bit unlucky if you are one of the mink but I suppose you were screwed anyway. Bit of a damn waste to burn the sorry critters though.

[Tuna]

Biker 1 said:

Hub said:

I suppose the worry is that it can mutate that easily, what hope is there for vaccines long term.

This is the prime reason that I do not believe the magical vaccine will have much efficacy, even assuming negligible side effects........

As I understand it, the SARS Covid and SARS Covid-19 viruses are both relatively stable in that the surface proteins are quite consistent between the variations, so immunity is not lost between strains. This talk of "mutations" appears rather misleading.

[TheDrBrian]

poo at Paul's said:

It depends what you mean by ‘if the vaccine doesn’t work’? It almost certainly willl work to some degree, how long for, I suspect we will need 2 or 3 jabs per year. I think the more important thing will be getting effective treatments so that if one catches this, or catches it again, the effects in all but very rare cases will be mild. Only then will people who catch it be allowed to isolate for shorter periods or not at all. Common cold used to kill people, but we don’t have millions of years to get on top of COVID so treatments like cheap, effective antivirals are key, I think.

You obviously know that the current crop of Rona vaccines aren’t being developed to cure people of it only mitigate or stop the effects from mild cases.
For the benefit of everyone else though:
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037

Edited by TheDrBrian on Friday 6th November 17:33

[vaud]

Hub said:

I suppose the worry is that it can mutate that easily, what hope is there for vaccines long term.

We have different flu strains every year and we build a vaccine each year that attempts to counter the leading strains.

[MOTORVATOR]

England only Hospital beds.

Big shift away from the September / October growth line now but not flat yet. Not sure what event the radical departure was linked to if any?



England only deaths by date.

I was tracking the daily additions last week to get an idea of what the last 11 days are likely to end up as that seems to be mainly where they added in following days. That gives the adj line purely as an idea of where they are likely to go..

You could expect them to follow the original curve until roughly today before reflecting the same change as beds to allow for the lag between admission and death?

[Taylor James]

MG CHRIS said:

There are plenty of people buying cars atm infact a lot of dealers are struggling to get stock to refill their compounds most have very little left. Our dealer had 2 large compounds between 3 brands 1 is completely empty and the other isn't full neither. If that drops in the years ahead is anyone guess but currently the demand hasn't dropped.

Really? You need to let the industry body know.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2020/11/new-car-registratio...

As for journalists, what do they know?

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/uk-car...

[Russ T Bolt]

Taylor James said:

Really? You need to let the industry body know.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2020/11/new-car-registratio...

As for journalists, what do they know?

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/uk-car...

My company car went back at the end of September, I have been looking for a replacement since.

All of the cars I am interested in are at top money currently and selling quickly.

But that is secondhand, not looked at new.

[Gecko1978]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Its a shame transport policy has never included bikes, less space on the roads and use much less fuel. But of course its harder to make money off a basic 125 that does 80mpg than a audi a3

[poo at Paul's]

Russ T Bolt said:

My company car went back at the end of September, I have been looking for a replacement since.

All of the cars I am interested in are at top money currently and selling quickly.

But that is secondhand, not looked at new.

Secondhand stuff is selling quicker and for more money and less new are being sold, i reckon. Generally cheaper, people are happier paying say 10k for a 2 year old model than 18k for a new one at the moment, covid, brexit, economy etc etc.

I think the no deal brexit prospect is having an impact now, dealers not selling so many new, so have ordered less with the prospect fo 10% tariffs happening waiting to see intetest when that £500 per month lease becomes £540.
A brexit deal with give the industry a boost i reckon. No deal and things will stagnate for 6 months at least, unless there is some VAT cut incentive from Govt.

[survivalist]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Looking at driving standards. As someone who lives in the south east and (pre-covid) commutes to London by train, I recon that even I I licked every surface on both the platform and the train itself It’d still be safer than commuting my motorbike.

Dryer too.

[BMW A6]

Deaths going horribly upwards:

[craig1912]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54887526

Absolute joke. Refund if tuition fees required this term

[isaldiri]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

So basically like ...excess deaths which have shown fairly sharp increases for the month of October then....?

[isaldiri]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

You might want to look at the most recent ons report to 30 Oct.

Https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

In the 2 weeks since your report there have been 2 weeks of 900+ excess deaths. That hasn't happened in any 2 week period covering September or October in 6 years.

Whether or not what we're doing is right is beside the point (and I agree the government is making a complete hash of things). Denying that high level of deaths are not happening now as you are implying is just utterly at odds with the current data.