Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 8)
Discussion
isaldiri said:
You might want to look at the most recent ons report to 30 Oct.
Https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
In the 2 weeks since your report there have been 2 weeks of 900+ excess deaths. That hasn't happened in any 2 week period covering September or October in 6 years.
Whether or not what we're doing is right is beside the point (and I agree the government is making a complete hash of things). Denying that high level of deaths are not happening now as you are implying is just utterly at odds with the current data.
There are many ways to interpret statistics. Using the latest data you posted ;Https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
In the 2 weeks since your report there have been 2 weeks of 900+ excess deaths. That hasn't happened in any 2 week period covering September or October in 6 years.
Whether or not what we're doing is right is beside the point (and I agree the government is making a complete hash of things). Denying that high level of deaths are not happening now as you are implying is just utterly at odds with the current data.
In the weeks 36 to 44 (approximately September & October) 2020 there were 88,766 deaths.
In the weeks 36 to 44 (approximately September & October) 2019 there were 88,278 deaths.
In the weeks 36 to 44 (approximately September & October) 2018 there were 85,239 deaths.
So the two months in 2020 saw an increase of 488 deaths over the prior year.
But the same two months in 2019 saw an increase of 3,039 deaths over 2018 figures. Six times higher than the current increase over the prior year.
Now my memory may not be what it was but I don't recall any outrage or extraordinary steps being taken in 2019
Ahonen said:
BMW A6 said:
Please stop being thick. Pay attention to the date of death, not the date reported. Over nine months in and people are still looking at the wrong number.i4got said:
There are many ways to interpret statistics. Using the latest data you posted ;
In the weeks 36 to 44 (approximately September & October) 2020 there were 88,766 deaths.
In the weeks 36 to 44 (approximately September & October) 2019 there were 88,278 deaths.
In the weeks 36 to 44 (approximately September & October) 2018 there were 85,239 deaths.
So the two months in 2020 saw an increase of 488 deaths over the prior year.
But the same two months in 2019 saw an increase of 3,039 deaths over 2018 figures. Six times higher than the current increase over the prior year.
Now my memory may not be what it was but I don't recall any outrage or extraordinary steps being taken in 2019
There are indeed a lot of ways to interpret the numbers. In the weeks 36 to 44 (approximately September & October) 2020 there were 88,766 deaths.
In the weeks 36 to 44 (approximately September & October) 2019 there were 88,278 deaths.
In the weeks 36 to 44 (approximately September & October) 2018 there were 85,239 deaths.
So the two months in 2020 saw an increase of 488 deaths over the prior year.
But the same two months in 2019 saw an increase of 3,039 deaths over 2018 figures. Six times higher than the current increase over the prior year.
Now my memory may not be what it was but I don't recall any outrage or extraordinary steps being taken in 2019
Sure in 2017 between weeks 36-44 we had even more excess deaths than average than the last 2 months.
I guess the point is despite the govt trying (badly) to suppress covid we are still seeing an unusually high number of excess deaths. Given the death numbers reflect infection levels that were in early Oct, you would not unreasonably expect quite a higher level of deaths in the next couple of weeks looking at how prevalence levels in the vulnerable groups increased.
Above 1200 extra deaths per week would be around what's considered above what we should be seeing in 95% of the time (2 standard deviations). We aren't all that close to that level of deaths as of 30 Oct and excess deaths is only likely to go up in the next report.
At what level would you agree a higher number of deaths are actually occuring and might be an issue?
isaldiri said:
There are indeed a lot of ways to interpret the numbers.
Sure in 2017 between weeks 36-44 we had even more excess deaths than average than the last 2 months.
I guess the point is despite the govt trying (badly) to suppress covid we are still seeing an unusually high number of excess deaths. Given the death numbers reflect infection levels that were in early Oct, you would not unreasonably expect quite a higher level of deaths in the next couple of weeks looking at how prevalence levels in the vulnerable groups increased.
Above 1200 extra deaths per week would be around what's considered above what we should be seeing in 95% of the time (2 standard deviations). We aren't all that close to that level of deaths as of 30 Oct and excess deaths is only likely to go up in the next report.
At what level would you agree a higher number of deaths are actually occuring and might be an issue?
The impending problem is that while it potentially looks like England only Hospital beds occupied may have stabilised around 11k unless we see a fall from that this week it will likely result in say 3.5k deaths a week that will continue through to the 3/12 deadline.Sure in 2017 between weeks 36-44 we had even more excess deaths than average than the last 2 months.
I guess the point is despite the govt trying (badly) to suppress covid we are still seeing an unusually high number of excess deaths. Given the death numbers reflect infection levels that were in early Oct, you would not unreasonably expect quite a higher level of deaths in the next couple of weeks looking at how prevalence levels in the vulnerable groups increased.
Above 1200 extra deaths per week would be around what's considered above what we should be seeing in 95% of the time (2 standard deviations). We aren't all that close to that level of deaths as of 30 Oct and excess deaths is only likely to go up in the next report.
At what level would you agree a higher number of deaths are actually occuring and might be an issue?
At that point there is going to have be some very convincing numbers on the R number being well below 1 to facilitate lifting of restrictions.
Edited by MOTORVATOR on Wednesday 11th November 22:19
BBC announces “at least students stand a chance of getting home for Christmas”
The reporting is shocking.
My lads at Uni and has already said he isn’t having a test and will come home on 18th when he was supposed to, so he can finish off his lectures whilst hes there and spend time with his mates.
The reporting is shocking.
My lads at Uni and has already said he isn’t having a test and will come home on 18th when he was supposed to, so he can finish off his lectures whilst hes there and spend time with his mates.
Edited by craig1912 on Wednesday 11th November 22:34
craig1912 said:
BBC announces “at least students stand a chance of getting home for Christmas”
The reporting is shocking.
My lads at Uni and has already said he isn’t having a test and will come home on 18th when he was supposed to, so he can finish off his lectures whilst hes there and spend time with his mates.
Why isn't he having a test?The reporting is shocking.
My lads at Uni and has already said he isn’t having a test and will come home on 18th when he was supposed to, so he can finish off his lectures whilst hes there and spend time with his mates.
Edited by craig1912 on Wednesday 11th November 22:34
anonymous said:
[redacted]
But here's the rub. We should see fewer excess deaths over the next year or two, due to the low hanging flu fruit and chronically old/ill getting brought to the front of the queue now. Except I worry their figures will be replaced by those with other conditions who've been ignored by the NHS this year and will cark it next year.RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
But here's the rub. We should see fewer excess deaths over the next year or two, due to the low hanging flu fruit and chronically old/ill getting brought to the front of the queue now. Except I worry their figures will be replaced by those with other conditions who've been ignored by the NHS this year and will cark it next year.
That bar seems to keep on moving I notice. Earlier in the year it was covid is just collecting those who are soon going to die. Now it's the people dying don't really matter as they will die in the next year or 2? isaldiri said:
That bar seems to keep on moving I notice. Earlier in the year it was covid is just collecting those who are soon going to die. Now it's the people dying don't really matter as they will die in the next year or 2?
You might have misread what I said. Covid is killing people, most of whom are old with comorbidities and have short life expectancy. I make no comment about whether those deaths matter or not. Once they've died, they can't die again from something else next year.
On that basis, there should be fewer excess deaths next year because there are fewer people towards end of life left to die next year were it not for Covid.
Except.
There will be thousands of people who have not been treated by the NHS this year, for non-covid conditions, who will go on to become seriously ill or die over the next couple of years, and who may contribute to excess deaths.
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
You might have misread what I said. Covid is killing people, most of whom are old with comorbidities and have short life expectancy. I make no comment about whether those deaths matter or not.
Once they've died, they can't die again from something else next year.
On that basis, there should be fewer excess deaths next year because there are fewer people towards end of life left to die next year were it not for Covid.
Except.
There will be thousands of people who have not been treated by the NHS this year, for non-covid conditions, who will go on to become seriously ill or die over the next couple of years, and who may contribute to excess deaths.
Fair enough perhaps I did as I always get a bit bemused by the line of 'with covid' not 'of covid'. Once they've died, they can't die again from something else next year.
On that basis, there should be fewer excess deaths next year because there are fewer people towards end of life left to die next year were it not for Covid.
Except.
There will be thousands of people who have not been treated by the NHS this year, for non-covid conditions, who will go on to become seriously ill or die over the next couple of years, and who may contribute to excess deaths.
I think next year is very likely to see a fairly large reduction in excess deaths as this year's deaths have been so large it'll have moved the 5 year average used to calculate excess deaths very significantly such that even if good numbers more people die from missed treatment etc it likely won't be at a high enough rate to offset the rise in 5yr average from 2020. Those extra deaths might then contribute to 2022 decrease in excess deaths by dying a bit earlier though I suppose....
You know there is a problem with the mainstream view when Youtube start pulling videos that put forward an alternative position. Its almost like they want to censor discussion because such discussion would perhaps educate or inform their viewing public and that goes against their preferred narrative.
Earlier today Triggernometry premiered a new interview with Prof. Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi an eminent German infectious deseases expert.
His views do not coincide with mainstream thinking. They are very interesting and thought provoking. The guys at Triggernometry said "watch it before it gets pulled". I took that as a joke. Later this evening the interview was pulled. As were most of the other interviews/ videos listed with him as a guest. I managed to find one in German still operational.
It appears that a guy who implores people to do what the Chief Epediemioligist of the WHO asks you to do is being de-platformed.
Makes you ask yourself why? What is Youtube et al frightened of ?
Is discussion of scientific principles not allowed any more? Is the science settled for us minions? Just like AGW is now settled science.
Earlier today Triggernometry premiered a new interview with Prof. Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi an eminent German infectious deseases expert.
His views do not coincide with mainstream thinking. They are very interesting and thought provoking. The guys at Triggernometry said "watch it before it gets pulled". I took that as a joke. Later this evening the interview was pulled. As were most of the other interviews/ videos listed with him as a guest. I managed to find one in German still operational.
It appears that a guy who implores people to do what the Chief Epediemioligist of the WHO asks you to do is being de-platformed.
Makes you ask yourself why? What is Youtube et al frightened of ?
Is discussion of scientific principles not allowed any more? Is the science settled for us minions? Just like AGW is now settled science.
Edited by Tony427 on Thursday 12th November 01:19
Tony427 said:
You know there is a problem with the mainstream view when Youtube start pulling videos that put forward an alternative position. Its almost like they want to censor discussion because such discussion would perhaps educate or inform their viewing public and that goes against their preferred narrative.
Earlier today Triggernometry premiered a new interview with Prof. Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi an eminent German infectious deseases expert.
His views do not coincide with mainstream thinking. They are very interesting and thought provoking. The guys at Triggernometry said "watch it before it gets pulled". I took that as a joke. Later this evening the interview was pulled. As were most of the other interviews/ videos listed with him as a guest. I managed to find one in German still operational.
It appears that a guy who implores people to do what the Chief Epediemioligist of the WHO asks you to do is being de-platformed.
Makes you ask yourself why? What is Youtube et al frightened of ?
Is discussion of scientific principles not allowed any more? Is the science settled for us minions? Just like AGW is now settled science.
These are worrying trends for sure. The level of corporate-led censorship creeping into these platforms is increasing and has accelerated recently. I’m fairly libertarian when it comes to this stuff ... if people want to tell lies then they have a right to and only through open challenge will the truth out. (Not that I’m saying this was an example of that, more a general point that I’m against the censoring of supposed / alleged untruths or difficult truths which play to an anti-majority counter-narrative).Earlier today Triggernometry premiered a new interview with Prof. Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi an eminent German infectious deseases expert.
His views do not coincide with mainstream thinking. They are very interesting and thought provoking. The guys at Triggernometry said "watch it before it gets pulled". I took that as a joke. Later this evening the interview was pulled. As were most of the other interviews/ videos listed with him as a guest. I managed to find one in German still operational.
It appears that a guy who implores people to do what the Chief Epediemioligist of the WHO asks you to do is being de-platformed.
Makes you ask yourself why? What is Youtube et al frightened of ?
Is discussion of scientific principles not allowed any more? Is the science settled for us minions? Just like AGW is now settled science.
Perhaps this will be the start of a reversal of the trends of publishing content online and move back to a more decentralised owner-run internet where people register domain names and create websites and publish their content that way?
I hope so, because the grip these big corporates have on content these days is concerning and evidently comes at a cost to free thought and expression.
Edited by markyb_lcy on Thursday 12th November 01:27
hute. Much less censorship there.RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
isaldiri said:
That bar seems to keep on moving I notice. Earlier in the year it was covid is just collecting those who are soon going to die. Now it's the people dying don't really matter as they will die in the next year or 2?
You might have misread what I said. Covid is killing people, most of whom are old with comorbidities and have short life expectancy. I make no comment about whether those deaths matter or not. Once they've died, they can't die again from something else next year.
On that basis, there should be fewer excess deaths next year because there are fewer people towards end of life left to die next year were it not for Covid.
Except.
There will be thousands of people who have not been treated by the NHS this year, for non-covid conditions, who will go on to become seriously ill or die over the next couple of years, and who may contribute to excess deaths.
Over, say, a three year period there aren't going to be many "excess" deaths due to Covid-19, due to the age and frailty of those dying now. This will be disguised in the figures due to other deaths which were caused by the denial of normal healthcare.
markyb_lcy said:
These are worrying trends for sure. The level of corporate-led censorship creeping into these platforms is increasing and has accelerated recently. I’m fairly libertarian when it comes to this stuff ... if people want to tell lies then they have a right to and only through open challenge will the truth out. (Not that I’m saying this was an example of that, more a general point that I’m against the censoring of supposed / alleged untruths or difficult truths which play to an anti-majority counter-narrative).
Perhaps this will be the start of a reversal of the trends of publishing content online and move back to a more decentralised owner-run internet where people register domain names and create websites and publish their content that way?
I hope so, because the grip these big corporates have on content these days is concerning and evidently comes at a cost to free thought and expression.
It is tied in with the difficult issue of 'fake news', which is a problem to be fair - but shouldn't stifle healthy debate and scepticism!Perhaps this will be the start of a reversal of the trends of publishing content online and move back to a more decentralised owner-run internet where people register domain names and create websites and publish their content that way?
I hope so, because the grip these big corporates have on content these days is concerning and evidently comes at a cost to free thought and expression.
Edited by markyb_lcy on Thursday 12th November 01:27
Alucidnation said:
craig1912 said:
BBC announces “at least students stand a chance of getting home for Christmas”
The reporting is shocking.
My lads at Uni and has already said he isn’t having a test and will come home on 18th when he was supposed to, so he can finish off his lectures whilst hes there and spend time with his mates.
Why isn't he having a test?The reporting is shocking.
My lads at Uni and has already said he isn’t having a test and will come home on 18th when he was supposed to, so he can finish off his lectures whilst hes there and spend time with his mates.
Edited by craig1912 on Wednesday 11th November 22:34
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