Europe heading into recession

[BrabusMog]

Gandahar said:

jsf said:

Gandahar said:

jsf said:

Gandahar said:

What happened to

THE END OF THE EURO IS NIGH

thread?

Is this the 2019 watered down version of such ?


2021 and we will have

"Europe NOT EXPANDING AS EXPECTED SHOCKA" thread



By that time most of the 70 year old PH folk posting these things will be in institutions though and having to take time outs having botties wiped and mouths dabbed.....

The Euro died years ago, it's now not a currency, it's a ponzi scheme kept afloat by "whatever it takes" political appointees.

It's going to hurt when that ponzi scheme fails.

When will it fail ?

Give us a date .... I'll book mark this post ...

Go on ....

It failed the day it was created.

20 years on life support I guess.

How come the £ has gone down against it since 1999 then ?

I remember 1.50eur = 1gbp

Cheapest pint of San Miguel I've ever had.

[Gandahar]

BrabusMog said:

Gandahar said:

jsf said:

Gandahar said:

jsf said:

Gandahar said:

What happened to

THE END OF THE EURO IS NIGH

thread?

Is this the 2019 watered down version of such ?


2021 and we will have

"Europe NOT EXPANDING AS EXPECTED SHOCKA" thread



By that time most of the 70 year old PH folk posting these things will be in institutions though and having to take time outs having botties wiped and mouths dabbed.....

The Euro died years ago, it's now not a currency, it's a ponzi scheme kept afloat by "whatever it takes" political appointees.

It's going to hurt when that ponzi scheme fails.

When will it fail ?

Give us a date .... I'll book mark this post ...

Go on ....

It failed the day it was created.

20 years on life support I guess.

How come the £ has gone down against it since 1999 then ?

I remember 1.50eur = 1gbp

Cheapest pint of San Miguel I've ever had.

Good point, let's hope it falls enough to give German beers from Aldi a good run against Bishops Finger !

[Digga]

Borghetto said:

I think prior to Gordon (I saved the World) Brown (that one eyed ste), saving into a pension was a no brainer However, once one politician thinks it's okay to break the taboo of fecking with the tax system of peoples pensions, who can say hand on heart some other corrupt politician won't repeat the trick.

Most people and indeed most of the media did not sufficiently understand the ramifications of Brown's tax grab at the time. That the Conservatives were asleep at the wheel of opposition was highly unfortunate - they should have pinioned him on this issue.

The serial failures of the Stakeholder and now NEST schemes are indicative of both how damaged pensions are and how little trust members of the ordinary general public have in them. Once bitten...

[DeejRC]

Gandahar said:

jsf said:

Gandahar said:

What happened to

THE END OF THE EURO IS NIGH

thread?

Is this the 2019 watered down version of such ?


2021 and we will have

"Europe NOT EXPANDING AS EXPECTED SHOCKA" thread



By that time most of the 70 year old PH folk posting these things will be in institutions though and having to take time outs having botties wiped and mouths dabbed.....

The Euro died years ago, it's now not a currency, it's a ponzi scheme kept afloat by "whatever it takes" political appointees.

It's going to hurt when that ponzi scheme fails.

When will it fail ?

Give us a date .... I'll book mark this post ...

Go on ....

Easter 2012. It was March or April I think, apols, its a while back.

I gave chapter and verse on it back then. The Euro died. Its dead Dave. This an ex-Euro.

What we have now is no longer The Euro. It is A Euro, Ill give you that, but it is not the same currency at all as prior to Easter 2012.

[anonymous-user]

DeejRC said:

Gandahar said:

jsf said:

Gandahar said:

What happened to

THE END OF THE EURO IS NIGH

thread?

Is this the 2019 watered down version of such ?


2021 and we will have

"Europe NOT EXPANDING AS EXPECTED SHOCKA" thread



By that time most of the 70 year old PH folk posting these things will be in institutions though and having to take time outs having botties wiped and mouths dabbed.....

The Euro died years ago, it's now not a currency, it's a ponzi scheme kept afloat by "whatever it takes" political appointees.

It's going to hurt when that ponzi scheme fails.

When will it fail ?

Give us a date .... I'll book mark this post ...

Go on ....

Easter 2012. It was March or April I think, apols, its a while back.

I gave chapter and verse on it back then. The Euro died. Its dead Dave. This an ex-Euro.

What we have now is no longer The Euro. It is A Euro, Ill give you that, but it is not the same currency at all as prior to Easter 2012.

Like i said it was when Draghi gave his "whatever it takes " speach.

[Wills2]

Gandahar said:

jsf said:

Gandahar said:

jsf said:

Gandahar said:

What happened to

THE END OF THE EURO IS NIGH

thread?

Is this the 2019 watered down version of such ?


2021 and we will have

"Europe NOT EXPANDING AS EXPECTED SHOCKA" thread



By that time most of the 70 year old PH folk posting these things will be in institutions though and having to take time outs having botties wiped and mouths dabbed.....

The Euro died years ago, it's now not a currency, it's a ponzi scheme kept afloat by "whatever it takes" political appointees.

It's going to hurt when that ponzi scheme fails.

When will it fail ?

Give us a date .... I'll book mark this post ...

Go on ....

It failed the day it was created.

20 years on life support I guess.

How come the £ has gone down against it since 1999 then ?

No point introducing the truth of the matter, it gets in the way of their fantasy....

[Agammemnon]

DeejRC said:

Easter 2012. It was March or April I think, apols, its a while back.

I gave chapter and verse on it back then. The Euro died. Its dead Dave. This an ex-Euro.

What we have now is no longer The Euro. It is A Euro, Ill give you that, but it is not the same currency at all as prior to Easter 2012.

Could you expand on that, please?

[anonymous-user]

Agammemnon said:

Could you expand on that, please?

https://youtu.be/tB2CM2ngpQg

Just google "draghi whatever it takes" and there are hundreds of explanations on what its impact was.

[anonymous-user]

The full speech he gave at the time was totally honest about what saving the Euro meant for Europe. It meant the loss of sovereignty for the member states. Watch the whole speech, it's not long, IMHO this is what really accelerated the pressure for an In/Out referendum to be held in the UK.

https://youtu.be/hMBI50FXDps

[NRS]

Wills2 said:

Gandahar said:

20 years on life support I guess.

How come the £ has gone down against it since 1999 then ?

No point introducing the truth of the matter, it gets in the way of their fantasy....

The strength of a currency doesn't mean stronger is better all the time. It depends what kind of economy you have/want etc. So it's a bit too simple to say that.

However, I think the overall thing that is "forgotten" on here is that it is too big to fail - in that if the Euro blows up then we're in much bigger trouble overall. Therefore it will continue in some form or another despite the big issues with it as it has to work. The only thing I could see taking it out is if there is a big political change from enough countries in it (continuation of going to the edges of the political spectrum in individual countries, push back against Europe. But that could also switch back to more center ground too.)

[stongle]

NRS said:

The strength of a currency doesn't mean stronger is better all the time. It depends what kind of economy you have/want etc. So it's a bit too simple to say that.

However, I think the overall thing that is "forgotten" on here is that it is too big to fail - in that if the Euro blows up then we're in much bigger trouble overall. Therefore it will continue in some form or another despite the big issues with it as it has to work. The only thing I could see taking it out is if there is a big political change from enough countries in it (continuation of going to the edges of the political spectrum in individual countries, push back against Europe. But that could also switch back to more center ground too.)

No, its not forgotten at all. I've been clear on nunerous occasions that it will live on, and the likey extra, extra, extraordinary steps that may be taken to keep it going.

If the ECB / Euro blows up, it's almost an ELE (Extinction Level Event). Much more difficult to contain than the 19th Sept 2008, when it looked like Goldmans and Stanleys may not survive the weekend. That was sphincter twitching.

It's unlikely that they will let it get to the edge - but if they did it's scary as fk. They have a dismal regulatory framework to stop contagion. Centralisation of risks, at clearing house level ramps contagion probability into orbit. Especially as many banks (EU), couldnt make the margin calls required (if held to same regulatory standards as UK banks many Italian banks didnt survive referendum result day volatility). Its more fun on a forum to hypothesise armageddon than a slow death of non-performing loans and negative yield though!!!

Unfortunately the debt pacts that the Euro is based upon, and needed to function are now a fantasy. Cross border wealth transfer has also been waaaay below expectations - hence I'd agree thay need to speed up the Federal project. Its going to take a massive will to change how the Euro is constructed but the governments may not act without an incentive. Reversing MP / getting out the hole requires a lot of fiscal firepower; few if any have. Macron caved to the yellowvests. And whilst it actually had some positive 3rd q effects - its not helping his budget deficit.

Whilst Draghi can probably be credited with saving the Euro / delaying its demise (plus creation of millions of jobs), I think they run into 3 problems off the bat:

1. The transmission mechanism was broken, and dealing with post crisis regulatory response.

2. They didnt go low enough of the bat (see also point 1 as the banks are using up some of the benefit to offset increasing regulatory capital costs etc). Ergo monetary loosening was fighting Basel regs.

3. Incorrect assumption that the Eurozone will respond as per the US/UK economies to monetary stimulus.

Ultimately if the ECB can't get inflation out the crapper, the whole zone has problems (bar Germany) with debt servicing. They need to be writing down their debt loads with inflation, but at 1.2% its 60% of target...

As for the GBP / EUR fx comments. It's generally good for exports to devalue your CCY. It also has imputs to inflation, which is a lot more important than people going to skanky Greek resorts and doing shots by the bucketload.

Edited by stongle on Sunday 3rd November 18:22

Edited by stongle on Sunday 3rd November 18:25

Edited by stongle on Sunday 3rd November 18:27

[Digga]

"We need to admit the euro was a mistake". Hungarian central bank governor calls for an exit mechanism

FT: https://www.ft.com/content/35b27568-f734-11e9-bbe1...

[Mrr T]

Digga said:

"We need to admit the euro was a mistake". Hungarian central bank governor calls for an exit mechanism

FT: https://www.ft.com/content/35b27568-f734-11e9-bbe1...

Opinions differ.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-euro-at-20...

[Vanden Saab]

Mrr T said:

Digga said:

"We need to admit the euro was a mistake". Hungarian central bank governor calls for an exit mechanism

FT: https://www.ft.com/content/35b27568-f734-11e9-bbe1...

Opinions differ.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-euro-at-20...

Your link is a year old...

[stongle]

Vanden Saab said:

Mrr T said:

Digga said:

"We need to admit the euro was a mistake". Hungarian central bank governor calls for an exit mechanism

FT: https://www.ft.com/content/35b27568-f734-11e9-bbe1...

Opinions differ.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-euro-at-20...

Your link is a year old...

Yep, it tells us what we all know, Germany & Austria etc profit. France, Italy and Spain errr not so good.

Last line, Euro has to keep defying the political and economic odds stacked against it. Can bullet dodging continue or will an event outside ECB control take it down?

Oh, and you can't set an Inflation goal of 2% and run at 1.2% average for 8 years... for reasons given many times.

[Mrr T]

Vanden Saab said:

Mrr T said:

Digga said:

"We need to admit the euro was a mistake". Hungarian central bank governor calls for an exit mechanism

FT: https://www.ft.com/content/35b27568-f734-11e9-bbe1...

Opinions differ.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-euro-at-20...

Your link is a year old...

It's an assessment of the first 20 years of the euro, do you think things have changed in the 21st year.

[Mrr T]

stongle said:

Yep, it tells us what we all know, Germany & Austria etc profit. France, Italy and Spain errr not so good.

Last line, Euro has to keep defying the political and economic odds stacked against it. Can bullet dodging continue or will an event outside ECB control take it down?

Oh, and you can't set an Inflation goal of 2% and run at 1.2% average for 8 years... for reasons given many times.

I agree with you but you keep focusing on the euro zone. The fact is the same problem is facing the US, Japan and the UK.

I am old enough to remember the fight against inflation. Now the problem is no one knows how to create it. Odd world economics.

[fido]

jsf said:

https://youtu.be/hMBI50FXDps

Biggest load of twaddle i've ever heard from Mafioso Drahi - what a charlatan!

[Digga]

Vanden Saab said:

Your link is a year old...

A post earlier in the thread asked when the Euro 'broke', the item was apropos of that tack - there are plenty of signs that it no longer functions as it should.

[stongle]

Mrr T said:

I agree with you but you keep focusing on the euro zone. The fact is the same problem is facing the US, Japan and the UK.

I am old enough to remember the fight against inflation. Now the problem is no one knows how to create it. Odd world economics.

Except it's not. Monetary Stimulus HAS worked - to a degree in the US and UK (not without other issues); it has failed to fire inflation in the EU zone (which is the thread title). If you track some of our posts to 2016 - I remember fblm, Digga, many others and myself advocating a switch into Fiscal based policies to close the asset gap created by loose monetary policy in the UK (it's a big part of why we voted out). Had everyone in UK PLC benefited from cheap money, the voting demographic in 2016 would have been different – but some of us don’t cry over spilt milk, just take past lessons into the future

Unlike the US and UK, when you go deep into negative territory; you kill your banking sector (and they always make stupid loans). NIM is on the floor in the EU, and only going lower. It’s already a certainty the EC will can kick it’s 2022 BASELIV loss absorption requirements for banks, at a time when it NEEDED to be making them safer. You cannot decouple the banks from your Monetary Policy; unless you go outside the traditional realms such as helicopter money or direct access.

Again, comparatively; the US and UK like soft landings – it’s part of the forward guidance model. The Eurozone is deeper into the hole (comparatively); a soft landing looks more problematic. They probably do have to do something outside the box – which MIGHT just save them from a hard landing. Maybe. Talk about glass half full.