The Future of Power Generation in Great Britain

[turbobloke]

Did we catch this good news three weeks ago? Better late than never and not bad for a pearoast in any case.

Renewable energy project developers have been dealt a huge blow as the government said there will be no new subsidies until 2025. A document published by the Treasury, alongside the Budget yesterday, suggests the government wants to keep energy costs “as low as possible” and therefore there will be no new low carbon electricity levies “until the burden of such costs is falling”. It states: “Until the total burden of these costs is forecast to fall in real terms over a sustained period, the Control will not allow for new low carbon electricity levies to be introduced. Based on the current forecast, this will rule out new levy spend until 2025.”
-Energy Live News, 23 November 2017

[silentbrown]

Gary C said:

So homes currently use 500twhr. but that's not split into electric or gas. So the simplest calc I can find is uk total energy consumption per year of 1700twhr which would be almost 50,000sqrkm of wind.

So that's impractical. What would be a reasonable estimate of the max size that uk off shore wind could grow too I wonder

Best place to start for guesstimates like these is the late David Mackay's excellent "Renewable Energy without the hot air" (2009). Obviously a lot of the costs etc are dated, but you can use the same methodology with more up-to-date figures for turbine size/efficiency etc.

http://www.withouthotair.com/c10/page_60.shtml

"numbers, not adjectives".

[rolando]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

turbobloke said:

Did we catch this good news three weeks ago? Better late than never and not bad for a pearoast in any case.

Renewable energy project developers have been dealt a huge blow as the government said there will be no new subsidies until 2025. A document published by the Treasury, alongside the Budget yesterday, suggests the government wants to keep energy costs “as low as possible” and therefore there will be no new low carbon electricity levies “until the burden of such costs is falling”. It states: “Until the total burden of these costs is forecast to fall in real terms over a sustained period, the Control will not allow for new low carbon electricity levies to be introduced. Based on the current forecast, this will rule out new levy spend until 2025.”
-Energy Live News, 23 November 2017

.

It is spelt out four times in the clipping above or do I need to use a highlighter?

This is your typical selective release of information that accounts for zero content, or "News".

This news was posted originally on 23rd November and was discussed at length at the time. Do we really need to go round in ever decreasing circles yet again whilst Paddy and his renewables troughers friends will, no doubt, say that unreliables are as cheap as chips and 100% capable of keeping the lights on and the wheels of industry turning 24/7, regardless of the weather or time of day.

Edited by rolando on Monday 11th December 13:01

[turbobloke]

rolando said:

This news was posted originally on 23rd November and was discussed at length at the time. Do we really need to go round in ever decreasing circles yet again whilst Paddy and his renewables troughers friends will, no doubt, say that unreliableables are as cheap as chips and 100% capable of keeping the lights on and the wheels of industry turning 24/7, regardless of the weather or time of day.

I missed the 23rd Nov beanfeast and acknowledged a possible pearoast, but it was worth it for that 'unreliables' reply.



:

[MYOB]

rolando said:

This news was posted originally on 23rd November and was discussed at length at the time. Do we really need to go round in ever decreasing circles yet again whilst Paddy and his renewables troughers friends will, no doubt, say that unreliableables are as cheap as chips and 100% capable of keeping the lights on and the wheels of industry turning 24/7, regardless of the weather or time of day.

I don't think anyone has actually said anything of the sort. We simply said that wind farms, and other forms of renewables, do have a vital role to play in helping secure security of supply. There is nothing "100%" about anything regarding energy.

[alangla]

Gary C said:

In the theme of calculations I thought it would be interesting to see how much generation would be required to replace all the road cars with electric.

We drive 316 billion miles per year so in Nissan Leaf terms of 235 miles using 40kwhr

So that works out at an extra 53twhr to power complete electrification of the roads or another ~1000sqrkm of wind.

I'm not trying to nit-pick, but would a load like that not primarily land during off-peak hours, e.g. overnight charging of vehicles. Would that not be more likely to be met via increased running of existing variable output sources (basically burning more CCGT gas during the night). You're right about full electrification via renewables basically involving a stupidly large number of new windmills though. Either that or build a fjord...

Gary C said:

interestingly, we had a brief from our senior management a while back and they are convinced that at some point in the near future, gas will get too expensive (?) and homes will be built with/converted to electric heating. Now that would put a huge load onto the system.

And that would be peak load as well, unless, as a nation, we go back to using storage heaters...

Oh - the weather seems to have changed - I reckon tonight could now be a challenge for the grid. Nuclear output is down to under 6GW just now, wind, having basically stopped during the night, is now up to 4GW. The French are, however, contributing to the UK for the first time in a while.

[rolando]

MYOB said:

rolando said:

This news was posted originally on 23rd November and was discussed at length at the time. Do we really need to go round in ever decreasing circles yet again whilst Paddy and his renewables troughers friends will, no doubt, say that unreliableables are as cheap as chips and 100% capable of keeping the lights on and the wheels of industry turning 24/7, regardless of the weather or time of day.

I don't think anyone has actually said anything of the sort. We simply said that wind farms, and other forms of renewables, do have a vital role to play in helping secure security of supply. There is nothing "100%" about anything regarding energy.

How on earth can intermittent and unpredictable generators be considered a secure source of supply when they are so obviously not?

[turbobloke]

rolando said:

MYOB said:

rolando said:

This news was posted originally on 23rd November and was discussed at length at the time. Do we really need to go round in ever decreasing circles yet again whilst Paddy and his renewables troughers friends will, no doubt, say that unreliableables are as cheap as chips and 100% capable of keeping the lights on and the wheels of industry turning 24/7, regardless of the weather or time of day.

I don't think anyone has actually said anything of the sort. We simply said that wind farms, and other forms of renewables, do have a vital role to play in helping secure security of supply. There is nothing "100%" about anything regarding energy.

QUESTION How on earth can intermittent and unpredictable generators be considered a secure source of supply when they are so obviously not?

ANSWER True Belief (faith) can overcome evidence that would convince a rational person.

On top of that, pocketing the Green Shilling can be persuasive.

[andymadmak]

rolando said:

How on earth can intermittent and unpredictable generators be considered a secure source of supply when they are so obviously not?

I believe that the logic goes something like this:

When the windmills produce energy, it is energy that does not have to be produced by other means, such as nuclear, coal, gas etc. Therefore energy production is "cleaner" and "greener".

If occasionally the windmills produce too much energy for the grid to accept, then this is proof that a further reduction in the capacity to produce energy by other means is justified. Therefore energy production will be even more "cleaner" and "greener"

If the windmills frequently do not produce enough energy, then it is because we are using too much energy, so we must find ways to reduce our energy consumption - closing heavy industries, insulating homes, encouraging local/domestic energy production. It should not be seen as any failure of the "cleaner" and "greener" thinking.

The fact that every pound invested in windmills must be mirrored by investment in other forms of generation to cover the intermittency problem is typically greeted with the equivalent of "la la la, I am not listening" by those who are most enamoured by windmills. Duplication of generating systems, at huge cost and no little environmental damage is to be considered as inconsequential.

Apparently all our electric cars will become part of the grid. And their batteries will be used to fill in the blanks when the windmills have stopped (either because there is no wind, too much wind, the wrong kind of wind, or they are simply broken)
Sooooooo, the battery in my Tesla will charge the battery in my neighbours Leaf, and vice versa, simultaneously, for ever.

I also own a perpetual motion machine if any of the windmill fraternity would like to buy it? Eleventy Billion quid and it's yours....

[rolando]

Thank you both for solving the conundrum. A perpetual motion machine is the winner

[wc98]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Clearing out some bumpf in the home office.

RenewablesUK did a handy handout at an exhibition - I think a year ago.

PH Worthy ?



A useful 52 page handbook for the uninitiated.
(bulk PH order then ?? )

if you have a copy spare i would quite like a read of that. if i am due a parrot fair enough.

[turbobloke]

Weird.

[Matthen]

Anyone know what the maximum capability of the grid, ignoring wind and solar, is?

[rolando]

Matthen said:

Anyone know what the maximum capability of the grid, ignoring wind and solar, is?

Take a look at DUKES

[Gary C]

alangla said:

Gary C said:

In the theme of calculations I thought it would be interesting to see how much generation would be required to replace all the road cars with electric.

We drive 316 billion miles per year so in Nissan Leaf terms of 235 miles using 40kwhr

So that works out at an extra 53twhr to power complete electrification of the roads or another ~1000sqrkm of wind.

I'm not trying to nit-pick, but would a load like that not primarily land during off-peak hours, e.g. overnight charging of vehicles. Would that not be more likely to be met via increased running of existing variable output sources (basically burning more CCGT gas during the night). You're right about full electrification via renewables basically involving a stupidly large number of new windmills though. Either that or build a fjord...

Gary C said:

interestingly, we had a brief from our senior management a while back and they are convinced that at some point in the near future, gas will get too expensive (?) and homes will be built with/converted to electric heating. Now that would put a huge load onto the system.

And that would be peak load as well, unless, as a nation, we go back to using storage heaters...

Oh - the weather seems to have changed - I reckon tonight could now be a challenge for the grid. Nuclear output is down to under 6GW just now, wind, having basically stopped during the night, is now up to 4GW. The French are, however, contributing to the UK for the first time in a while.

I wasn't trying to be too clever, just doing some very basic calcs from basic published figures. Even to meet those numbers al least 40gw of storage would be needed to make it work, just find it interesting that 140sqrkm would be needed just to replace our station and wondered how it scaled up

[wc98]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

No whooshes necessary. I only have the one copy but can ask at RenewablesUK HQ.

cheers ,pm me if successful .

[wc98]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Seems you can do better..... 2nd edition :

http://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.renewableuk.com/resou...

But be quick before Rolando launches a class action lawsuit for infringement or summat

Edited by Paddy_N_Murphy on Monday 11th December 21:35

cheers, much appreciated.

[V8 Fettler]

-12 centigrade in parts of the UK, not much of a breeze. Coal is working magnificently, I assume that wind is doing the best it can.

[V8 Fettler]

Wind down to 3.6%

[eliot]

Now down to 1.26gw