How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 3)
Discussion
Skywalker said:
Can anyone who might class themselves as a remainer explain what the preferred outcome is if Brexit is torpedoed.
I would love to have a view of the alternative future which is being teased at or hoped for.
So would I, but as always criticising someone's actions is always easier than actually doing something yourself. Personally I don't think any of the Remain voters can predict what would have happened if the vote had been to remain inside the EU. It certainly wouldn't have been the "2016 status quo" frozen for all time as some appear to believe.I would love to have a view of the alternative future which is being teased at or hoped for.
Skywalker said:
Is it a Hard Remain which will see the U.K. finally embrace full integration with the EU project including the US of Eu, take Schengen to our chest and accept the Euro?
Crazy though it sounds, if the country had voted to stay in the EU even as a Leave voter I think this is exactly what we should have done. I doubt we would have gone down that path, but we should be either fully in or fully out of the EU, the pre-2016 position just wasn't sustainable.The UK opposed so many of the EU's ideals; we don't want Schengen, the Euro, an EU military force but we do want a rebate because we don't think we get a fair share of the EU budget and we want to have a veto where we can stop things we don't like, etc.
And that's the wrong attitude to have. If we are/were to remain members then we should be in there at the same level of commitment as France and Germany. Anything else will be seen as a reluctant member and despite what you might like to think that ends up as a minority player who can be ignored when we become inconvenient.
The referendum shouldn't have been "stay in as 2016 or Leave", it should have been "sign up for the full deal as per France/Germany, or Leave". Now that would have been an interesting vote.
Skywalker said:
Will it be a Soft Remain which will see the U.K. asking for the clock to be wound back and permission being regained for all those tedious opt outs?
Is a soft remain only as likely as unicorn poo now?
It certainly is. Although the usual suspects will be along to assure us that the EU will be magnanimous and allow everything we had before 2016 to continue forever as the EU continues towards full union whilst acting on everything we tell them. Yeah.... I get it.Is a soft remain only as likely as unicorn poo now?
Skywalker said:
Can anyone who might class themselves as a remainer explain what the preferred outcome is if Brexit is torpedoed.
Status quo para brexit.Until May 2019, we have the option to go back to exactly how things were. After that, the EU can start imposing conditions on re-entry. This is why its imperative to know what a post Brexit UK will look like before then.
captain_cynic said:
Status quo para brexit.
Until May 2019, we have the option to go back to exactly how things were. After that, the EU can start imposing conditions on re-entry. This is why its imperative to know what a post Brexit UK will look like before then.
I'm not sure that has properly been tested yet... There was no provision in Art50 to cover it IIRC.Until May 2019, we have the option to go back to exactly how things were. After that, the EU can start imposing conditions on re-entry. This is why its imperative to know what a post Brexit UK will look like before then.
Either way, there is no such thing as a "status quo" where the EU is concerned... It's ever changing to meet it's philosophy/political ideology. The deeper in you get, the harder it is to extricate oneself.
Murph7355 said:
captain_cynic said:
Status quo para brexit.
Until May 2019, we have the option to go back to exactly how things were. After that, the EU can start imposing conditions on re-entry. This is why its imperative to know what a post Brexit UK will look like before then.
I'm not sure that has properly been tested yet... There was no provision in Art50 to cover it IIRC.Until May 2019, we have the option to go back to exactly how things were. After that, the EU can start imposing conditions on re-entry. This is why its imperative to know what a post Brexit UK will look like before then.
Either way, there is no such thing as a "status quo" where the EU is concerned... It's ever changing to meet it's philosophy/political ideology. The deeper in you get, the harder it is to extricate oneself.
Good riddance to the prospect of being directly affected by EU-wide taxation and an EU army. Not forgetting a longer arm's length to the EZ.
b2hbm said:
Replied
Thanks for your reply. Your answer was kind of where I was coming from. The Pre 2016 position was untenable beyond belief and if you accept that the EU is significantly more than a free trade area then the obvious option available is to poo, or get off the pot - accepting that that comes with less direct control - and options to streamline one of the two civil services.
Come what may, the U.K. should have got involved more fully or leave - and if that means that the RoI has to get fully involved too, then so be it.
If those rules of the club are no longer felt acceptable, then the U.K. should leave the club - ie Brexit.
Even if it was possible to magic back to pre 2016 - there is no way to ‘lock’ that relationship in stone as an immovable position as the EU is on a moving escalator to a United States / federal model, so Remain surely can only mean a Vote to the future state.
With that though, the U.K. would have to turn further towards the EU (and future EU members) and turn away from the Commonwealth or anglosphere countries who no longer fit the Euro model.
5 Eyes? I bet those relationships are hated as not being eurosphere enough.
Edited by Skywalker on Tuesday 8th May 20:23
Skywalker said:
b2hbm said:
Replied
Thanks for your reply. Your answer was kind of where I was coming from. The Pre 2016 position was untenable beyond belief and if you accept that the EU is significantly more than a free trade area then the obvious option available is to poo, or get off the pot - accepting that that comes with less direct control - and options to streamline one of the two civil services.
Come what may, the U.K. should have got involved more fully or leave - and if that means that the RoI has to get fully involved too, then so be it.
If those rules of the club are no longer felt acceptable, then the U.K. should leave the club - ie Brexit.
Even if it was possible to magic back to pre 2016 - there is no way to ‘lock’ that relationship in stone as an immovable position as the EU is on a moving escalator to a United States / federal model, so Remain surely can only mean a Vote to the future state.
With that though, the U.K. would have to turn further towards the EU (and future EU members) and turn away from the Commonwealth or anglosphere countries who no longer fit the Euro model.
5 Eyes? I bet those relationships are hated as not being eurosphere enough.
Edited by Skywalker on Tuesday 8th May 20:23
There appears to be a number of differing views in the Remain camp. Some believe that we just go back to where we were pre Referendum, and that our future "integration" into a USEU will only happen by the consent of Government (or to put it the other way - "we have a veto!")
Other Remainers didn't want that - preferring instead for the UK to embrace its place in a fully Federal Europe over time, with all the bells and whistles that this undoubtedly brings (Schengen, the Euro, EU Taxes, Army etc)
What is strange is that some Remainers howl loudly about the whole "Brexiteers didn't know what they were voting for" but are completely oblivious to the same issues within the Remain camp.
Your "Poo or get off the pot" position is exactly where I was in my mind. We could simply not carry on being the European Union's awkward squad, dragging our feet whilst the rest of the EU had a vision for their future that the majority here clearly do not share.
I have asked more than once how Remainers imagine the vote would have gone if the choice had been out vs greater integration within a USEU. (my view is rather than 52/48, it would have been closer to 70/30)
It is a question that is rarely approached with any honesty by most (not all) Remainers on here, preferring instead as they do to ignore the inconvenience of the truth it contains in favour of their more normal tactics of insulting Brexit voters and playing up the uncertainties that were always going to be a part of a Brexit vote when none of the main political parties (ie, any potential Government) supported Brexit.
Back in the day during my political studying degree days I came to a rather shocking ( to me anyway) insight - I was actually intellectually inclined towards Kant and his political philosophy that European politics logically dictated more integration. And I agreed with it! I think it was a hell of a call from Kant, especially when he had a cpl of Centuries still to go, but bang on the money he was.
I still do, I dont really see any other path for mainland Europe than as an integrated entity and jolly good luck with it. The trouble is, nobody has ever actually planned the bugger out properly! So it starts to happen and rolls slowly along gradually coalescing piecemeal driven by different ppl at different times in different directions. It ends up very hodgepodgey and not really much cop for anybody (except French farmers). It is the opposite to the States which had the benefit of a big bang.
The UK isn't part of that thought process. We just aren't. Which leaves us, as the two posters above ruminate on, in a bit of an awkward spot really. The poo or off the pot analogy is perfectly fair. What was/is the future for the UK in the EU? The status quo aint an option - for anybody really, but to go where nobody knows. Here is where Cameron got caught with his pants down - his smug "reform negotiation" was kicked into touch because he was being a smug arsed git about something for which frankly he had not skin in the game and Angie et al bloody knew it! Of course she, Tusk et al know they need reform, evolution, but to do so needs agreement from 27 squabbling kids, not some Tory twerp rocking up and telling them what the Brits need again. You can argue reform negotiations when you are publicly standing in two different camps and you are cocking a snook at both of them!!!
Of course the fact that Angie and the Germans were/are bloody desperate for the Brits to be partners/allies with them and that CMD was right all along, in his timing and process to go to Europe and say "look chaps, we need reform we die" only makes it all the more galling that he did so in such a smug, cock arsed, piss taking, botched up, Eton'esque manner of rocking up and telling them what he needed and they were to deliver.
So now, here we are. The EU is in a buggers muddle (and be in no doubt - they are and they know it) and the UK is in a buggers muddle. And America has Trump because it is also in an existential buggers muddle. Outstanding effort all round.
I still do, I dont really see any other path for mainland Europe than as an integrated entity and jolly good luck with it. The trouble is, nobody has ever actually planned the bugger out properly! So it starts to happen and rolls slowly along gradually coalescing piecemeal driven by different ppl at different times in different directions. It ends up very hodgepodgey and not really much cop for anybody (except French farmers). It is the opposite to the States which had the benefit of a big bang.
The UK isn't part of that thought process. We just aren't. Which leaves us, as the two posters above ruminate on, in a bit of an awkward spot really. The poo or off the pot analogy is perfectly fair. What was/is the future for the UK in the EU? The status quo aint an option - for anybody really, but to go where nobody knows. Here is where Cameron got caught with his pants down - his smug "reform negotiation" was kicked into touch because he was being a smug arsed git about something for which frankly he had not skin in the game and Angie et al bloody knew it! Of course she, Tusk et al know they need reform, evolution, but to do so needs agreement from 27 squabbling kids, not some Tory twerp rocking up and telling them what the Brits need again. You can argue reform negotiations when you are publicly standing in two different camps and you are cocking a snook at both of them!!!
Of course the fact that Angie and the Germans were/are bloody desperate for the Brits to be partners/allies with them and that CMD was right all along, in his timing and process to go to Europe and say "look chaps, we need reform we die" only makes it all the more galling that he did so in such a smug, cock arsed, piss taking, botched up, Eton'esque manner of rocking up and telling them what he needed and they were to deliver.
So now, here we are. The EU is in a buggers muddle (and be in no doubt - they are and they know it) and the UK is in a buggers muddle. And America has Trump because it is also in an existential buggers muddle. Outstanding effort all round.
hmm, now this is interesting.
A question posed on Monday and yet by Wednesday morning there's only been 4 responses, and 3 of those from people who I suspect voted to Leave. Normally we'd have at least 2 of the serious EU fans pitching in to tell us that all would be well if only we'd turn back the clock or at least a couple of "you don't understand" responses. Not even an attempt at deflection or insults ?
What's up, is the question too hard ?
A question posed on Monday and yet by Wednesday morning there's only been 4 responses, and 3 of those from people who I suspect voted to Leave. Normally we'd have at least 2 of the serious EU fans pitching in to tell us that all would be well if only we'd turn back the clock or at least a couple of "you don't understand" responses. Not even an attempt at deflection or insults ?
What's up, is the question too hard ?
b2hbm said:
hmm, now this is interesting.
A question posed on Monday and yet by Wednesday morning there's only been 4 responses, and 3 of those from people who I suspect voted to Leave. Normally we'd have at least 2 of the serious EU fans pitching in to tell us that all would be well if only we'd turn back the clock or at least a couple of "you don't understand" responses. Not even an attempt at deflection or insults ?
What's up, is the question too hard ?
No, but pointless because neither party will ever accept the others point of view.A question posed on Monday and yet by Wednesday morning there's only been 4 responses, and 3 of those from people who I suspect voted to Leave. Normally we'd have at least 2 of the serious EU fans pitching in to tell us that all would be well if only we'd turn back the clock or at least a couple of "you don't understand" responses. Not even an attempt at deflection or insults ?
What's up, is the question too hard ?
b2hbm said:
hmm, now this is interesting.
A question posed on Monday and yet by Wednesday morning there's only been 4 responses, and 3 of those from people who I suspect voted to Leave. Normally we'd have at least 2 of the serious EU fans pitching in to tell us that all would be well if only we'd turn back the clock or at least a couple of "you don't understand" responses. Not even an attempt at deflection or insults ?
What's up, is the question too hard ?
Maybe no one has answered because we haven't left yet and it would be exactly the same as it is now.A question posed on Monday and yet by Wednesday morning there's only been 4 responses, and 3 of those from people who I suspect voted to Leave. Normally we'd have at least 2 of the serious EU fans pitching in to tell us that all would be well if only we'd turn back the clock or at least a couple of "you don't understand" responses. Not even an attempt at deflection or insults ?
What's up, is the question too hard ?
b2hbm said:
hmm, now this is interesting.
A question posed on Monday and yet by Wednesday morning there's only been 4 responses, and 3 of those from people who I suspect voted to Leave. Normally we'd have at least 2 of the serious EU fans pitching in to tell us that all would be well if only we'd turn back the clock or at least a couple of "you don't understand" responses. Not even an attempt at deflection or insults ?
What's up, is the question too hard ?
Perhaps the remainers are out enjoying the sun, leaving negotiations in the hands of the brexit a-team? After all, the general brexit concensus on PH before, during and after the vote was that brexit was going to be easy....A question posed on Monday and yet by Wednesday morning there's only been 4 responses, and 3 of those from people who I suspect voted to Leave. Normally we'd have at least 2 of the serious EU fans pitching in to tell us that all would be well if only we'd turn back the clock or at least a couple of "you don't understand" responses. Not even an attempt at deflection or insults ?
What's up, is the question too hard ?
tangerine_sedge said:
b2hbm said:
hmm, now this is interesting.
A question posed on Monday and yet by Wednesday morning there's only been 4 responses, and 3 of those from people who I suspect voted to Leave. Normally we'd have at least 2 of the serious EU fans pitching in to tell us that all would be well if only we'd turn back the clock or at least a couple of "you don't understand" responses. Not even an attempt at deflection or insults ?
What's up, is the question too hard ?
Perhaps the remainers are out enjoying the sun, leaving negotiations in the hands of the brexit a-team? After all, the general brexit concensus on PH before, during and after the vote was that brexit was going to be easy....A question posed on Monday and yet by Wednesday morning there's only been 4 responses, and 3 of those from people who I suspect voted to Leave. Normally we'd have at least 2 of the serious EU fans pitching in to tell us that all would be well if only we'd turn back the clock or at least a couple of "you don't understand" responses. Not even an attempt at deflection or insults ?
What's up, is the question too hard ?
most remain ones too when they realise we are now going to be told Squeal litle piggy by our masters in the EU...
Ghibli said:
b2hbm said:
hmm, now this is interesting.
A question posed on Monday and yet by Wednesday morning there's only been 4 responses, and 3 of those from people who I suspect voted to Leave. Normally we'd have at least 2 of the serious EU fans pitching in to tell us that all would be well if only we'd turn back the clock or at least a couple of "you don't understand" responses. Not even an attempt at deflection or insults ?
What's up, is the question too hard ?
Maybe no one has answered because we haven't left yet and it would be exactly the same as it is now.A question posed on Monday and yet by Wednesday morning there's only been 4 responses, and 3 of those from people who I suspect voted to Leave. Normally we'd have at least 2 of the serious EU fans pitching in to tell us that all would be well if only we'd turn back the clock or at least a couple of "you don't understand" responses. Not even an attempt at deflection or insults ?
What's up, is the question too hard ?
b2hbm said:
hmm, now this is interesting.
A question posed on Monday and yet by Wednesday morning there's only been 4 responses, and 3 of those from people who I suspect voted to Leave. Normally we'd have at least 2 of the serious EU fans pitching in to tell us that all would be well if only we'd turn back the clock or at least a couple of "you don't understand" responses. Not even an attempt at deflection or insults ?
What's up, is the question too hard ?
given the standard of replies from the most vociferous remainers on this and other threads i suspect having to deal with reality really is too hard for them.A question posed on Monday and yet by Wednesday morning there's only been 4 responses, and 3 of those from people who I suspect voted to Leave. Normally we'd have at least 2 of the serious EU fans pitching in to tell us that all would be well if only we'd turn back the clock or at least a couple of "you don't understand" responses. Not even an attempt at deflection or insults ?
What's up, is the question too hard ?
Last couple of pages, good effort guys, thanks to Skywalker for articulating some interesting questions which summarise a troubling issue, and put another question, ie the get off the pot or not. Such a question would have been more than 70:30 if the figures from the pre ref polls that only a handful % of voters wanted the full integration can be believed.
Might be worth following the thread again.
Might be worth following the thread again.
Edited by FiF on Wednesday 9th May 09:09
What response do you want off folks?
I strongly suspect that most remain leaving voters haven’t thought too much about it and just hoped the status quo was maintained, so that we could all just carry on as normal. Much the same as most leave voters want it done with, dont really give a f
k about the Irish border or the customs union just so long as we can just carry on as normal.
Brexit is as easy or as difficult as you wish to make it. That’s the simple truth. Even with Barnier and co being difficult and demanding it wouldn’t be the palava it is if the govt was united and had a common policy and goal. The present difficulties I would argue are caused entirely by the Tory party not having a joint collective clue. It doesn’t known if it wants a difficult or easy Brexit, it has no collective political will or direction.
So in this respect both Remain and Leave are in the same position. Neither actually know what position they want for the UK vis a vis Europe.
A buggers muddle.
I strongly suspect that most remain leaving voters haven’t thought too much about it and just hoped the status quo was maintained, so that we could all just carry on as normal. Much the same as most leave voters want it done with, dont really give a f
k about the Irish border or the customs union just so long as we can just carry on as normal.Brexit is as easy or as difficult as you wish to make it. That’s the simple truth. Even with Barnier and co being difficult and demanding it wouldn’t be the palava it is if the govt was united and had a common policy and goal. The present difficulties I would argue are caused entirely by the Tory party not having a joint collective clue. It doesn’t known if it wants a difficult or easy Brexit, it has no collective political will or direction.
So in this respect both Remain and Leave are in the same position. Neither actually know what position they want for the UK vis a vis Europe.
A buggers muddle.
DeejRC said:
What response do you want off folks?
I strongly suspect that most remain leaving voters haven’t thought too much about it and just hoped the status quo was maintained, so that we could all just carry on as normal. Much the same as most leave voters want it done with, dont really give a fk about the Irish border or the customs union just so long as we can just carry on as normal.
Brexit is as easy or as difficult as you wish to make it. That’s the simple truth. Even with Barnier and co being difficult and demanding it wouldn’t be the palava it is if the govt was united and had a common policy and goal. The present difficulties I would argue are caused entirely by the Tory party not having a joint collective clue. It doesn’t known if it wants a difficult or easy Brexit, it has no collective political will or direction.
I disagree a bit with your point about the Customs Union, I'd think most voters don't care about the CU at the moment, but if we stay in it people will realise that means we haven't taken back control of our trade policy and all the other things that go with being in a Customs Union and will care then. Agree on the Irish Border, it's a wider topic than I have time for today, but I doubt there is widespread support for appeasing terrorists, which is the crux of the basic Irish border issue. I'm not saying I agree with that, but I think that's where the population is largely.I strongly suspect that most remain leaving voters haven’t thought too much about it and just hoped the status quo was maintained, so that we could all just carry on as normal. Much the same as most leave voters want it done with, dont really give a f
k about the Irish border or the customs union just so long as we can just carry on as normal.Brexit is as easy or as difficult as you wish to make it. That’s the simple truth. Even with Barnier and co being difficult and demanding it wouldn’t be the palava it is if the govt was united and had a common policy and goal. The present difficulties I would argue are caused entirely by the Tory party not having a joint collective clue. It doesn’t known if it wants a difficult or easy Brexit, it has no collective political will or direction.
The position is far more nuanced than just an internal Tory party issue though, the opposition is just as split and parliament is hugely out of step with the public and trying to position an effective remain outcome dressed up as leave. May appears to have run out of options by f
king things up at every turn. Government Policy, from April 2016 to now has been to leave both the Customs Union and the Single Market as these are the essence of what the EU is. The leave campaign won the referendum on the premise of taking back control of money, borders, trade policy and law. Both main parties campaigned on a manifesto of leaving both. Last week's local election results showed quite clearly that May is entirely reliant on leave voters.
Yet here we are with a Government that is still talking about a joint Customs policy (ie staying in the Customs Union whatever it's being called this week) when not only is there is no mandate for it, there is a specific mandate for the opposite. As a result the Lords have voted to do what they want to do with no regard to voters, and it sounds as if there's a good chance the Commons will join them and ignore the referendum result. As a result the EU will continue to agitate and push for an outcome that is essentially remain.
Essentially it looks like May cannot get agreement with the EU and cannot get any of her proposals through the Commons anyway. And the only way to solve those issues will see her destroyed at the next election, she's done nothing as PM but f
k about with stupid minor policies so hasn't gained votes from anywhere and is about to alienate a good half of her core vote. She can't call an election either because she can't win on a ticket of, "I've fked Brexit up, vote for me." because Labour will say enough, as they did last time, to hold on to Labour Leave voters.Can't see what her options are to be honest, there's no time for anything drastic, but she's going to be kicked out by the party as soon as she wavers from taking back control.
The one thing I'm not completely clear on is how binding the commons defeats would be? If the legislation says there has to be a Customs Union negotiated but the EU say no, or the only way they agree contradicts some other part of the legislation, where does that leave the Government? And I thought the Government had couldn't be bound by Parliament when negotiating international treaties?
It's all a clusterf
k isn't it.Edited by paulrockliffe on Wednesday 9th May 11:01
Troubleatmill said:
It was made very clear by both Leave and Remain camps that if Leave won the U.K would leave the single market and customs union.
The muddle is caused by Remain being bad losers and desperately wish to keep the U.K. tied into the European Union as much as possible.
The muddle is caused by Remain being bad losers and desperately wish to keep the U.K. tied into the European Union as much as possible.
and also the EU not wanting us to leave and so joining in with the Remainers in deliberately trying not to reach and agreement.DeejRC said:
What response do you want off folks?
I strongly suspect that most remain leaving voters haven’t thought too much about it and just hoped the status quo was maintained, so that we could all just carry on as normal. Much the same as most leave voters want it done with, dont really give a fk about the Irish border or the customs union just so long as we can just carry on as normal.
what did remain voters think the status quo would entail. most leave voters posting on the thread have been fairly clear that they think(whether correct or not doesn't matter, they at least offered opinion) the status quo meant much further integration with all that entails.I strongly suspect that most remain leaving voters haven’t thought too much about it and just hoped the status quo was maintained, so that we could all just carry on as normal. Much the same as most leave voters want it done with, dont really give a f
k about the Irish border or the customs union just so long as we can just carry on as normal.i still don't know whether remainers believe the status quo meant no change to the position we were in pre referendum or continuing on a path led by the eu.
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