CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 12)
Discussion
johnboy1975 said:
RSTurboPaul said:
SAGE advisers U-turn on grisly third wave estimates and SLASH the next year's death toll predictions 10-fold
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9566001/C...
Pretty please??
I particularly liked the way they've only factored in transmission reductions from vaccines now.
Well done for being ahead of the curve, people
Sounds a lot like we've all being saying since Feb / Marchhttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9566001/C...
DM said:
Data suggest vaccines are working so well in the real world that mathematical modellers who advise SAGE have dramatically downgraded their bleak predictions of more than 100,000 further Covid deaths within the next year and a third wave of the virus to rival the first two.
...
A report published yesterday showed that real-world data accounting for vaccinated people being less likely to pass on the virus has been factored in to long-term estimates for the first time.
The Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team, some of the Government's top advisers whose work triggered the first national lockdown in March 2020, have now revised their worst-case death toll for England to 16,600 more between May 2021 and June 2022.
This is based on the current scenario, with jabs remaining effective over time and no new variants taking over, and marks a drastic fall from a warning in January that 167,600 across the UK could die of Covid between then and next summer.
So now it's 16k extra 'worst case' for a whole year - the same as a reasonable flu season - so can we please grow some balls and release without BS vaccine coercion and 'vaccine passports'...
A report published yesterday showed that real-world data accounting for vaccinated people being less likely to pass on the virus has been factored in to long-term estimates for the first time.
The Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team, some of the Government's top advisers whose work triggered the first national lockdown in March 2020, have now revised their worst-case death toll for England to 16,600 more between May 2021 and June 2022.
This is based on the current scenario, with jabs remaining effective over time and no new variants taking over, and marks a drastic fall from a warning in January that 167,600 across the UK could die of Covid between then and next summer.
Pretty please??
I particularly liked the way they've only factored in transmission reductions from vaccines now.
Well done for being ahead of the curve, people
Its almost as if they needed fake high modelled numbers to keep the lockdown going as long as possible, and now its all over bar the shouting, they can slip the real numbers out
It stinks
Fake modelling released to try and hold lockdown in place as long as possible. Once the argument is lost, and we are going to open up some more anyway, then something closer to reality can be presented instead.
Now they will prepare for the push for the autumn lockdown. Triple mutant Covid anyone?
JagLover said:
Now they will prepare for the push for the autumn lockdown. Triple mutant Covid anyone?
I'm pretty sure they will try and re-introduce lockdown at some point. The query I have is what are they trying to sell or hide from? Is it still a) incompetence? b)Arse-covering? Or is it c)a Health Passport/ Digital ID system?If A, well.... there's no answer to that.
If B, then surely any return to lockdown is just multiplying the errors and magnifying the mistakes, and the best route out for the government is to drop all restrictions in summer and try and move quietly on.
If C, then I can't grasp how they will 'sell' this. Mutant variation? But with the success of the vaccine (both take-up and effectiveness), they'd have to infer that the new variation is unaffected by the vaccine... so the use of passports is moot.
At this moment, I think we are hostage to a weak and directionless government made superficially strong by the total absence of any real opposition. In turn, they are caught in a fear-mongering trap of their (and SAGE's) own making... and despite their planting of the seeds, they can see no way out of the maze that leaves them unscathed - better instead that the pain is bourne by the populace instead to safeguard careers, reputations and the avoidance of any kind of human rights trial.
MikeT66 said:
I'm pretty sure they will try and re-introduce lockdown at some point. The query I have is what are they trying to sell or hide from? Is it still a) incompetence? b)Arse-covering? Or is it c)a Health Passport/ Digital ID system?
If A, well.... there's no answer to that.
If B, then surely any return to lockdown is just multiplying the errors and magnifying the mistakes, and the best route out for the government is to drop all restrictions in summer and try and move quietly on.
If C, then I can't grasp how they will 'sell' this. Mutant variation? But with the success of the vaccine (both take-up and effectiveness), they'd have to infer that the new variation is unaffected by the vaccine... so the use of passports is moot.
At this moment, I think we are hostage to a weak and directionless government made superficially strong by the total absence of any real opposition. In turn, they are caught in a fear-mongering trap of their (and SAGE's) own making... and despite their planting of the seeds, they can see no way out of the maze that leaves them unscathed - better instead that the pain is bourne by the populace instead to safeguard careers, reputations and the avoidance of any kind of human rights trial.
Boris did once say, if you are in a very big hole all you can do is keep digging.If A, well.... there's no answer to that.
If B, then surely any return to lockdown is just multiplying the errors and magnifying the mistakes, and the best route out for the government is to drop all restrictions in summer and try and move quietly on.
If C, then I can't grasp how they will 'sell' this. Mutant variation? But with the success of the vaccine (both take-up and effectiveness), they'd have to infer that the new variation is unaffected by the vaccine... so the use of passports is moot.
At this moment, I think we are hostage to a weak and directionless government made superficially strong by the total absence of any real opposition. In turn, they are caught in a fear-mongering trap of their (and SAGE's) own making... and despite their planting of the seeds, they can see no way out of the maze that leaves them unscathed - better instead that the pain is bourne by the populace instead to safeguard careers, reputations and the avoidance of any kind of human rights trial.
Obsolete Driver said:
JagLover said:
Now they will prepare for the push for the autumn lockdown. Triple mutant Covid anyone?
But for what purpose?What is gained by the government by restricting business operation and profitability, and people's interaction with each other?
Its quite an achievement really when we only needed 2/3 months maximum.
The climate stuff gets trotted out quite a lot (including by me) but I'm not sure if it stacks up - torch your economy for fractional co2 emmision reduction. Looks like that particular plan is to reduce it slowly over 20 years or so whilst growing the economy (which, if it has to done, makes more sense)
Interesting that Boris and Gove are pushing for Voter photo ID despite being previously dead against it. I tend to think (as others do) that this is all about ID cards in one way or another.
In which case, surely it would make more sense to have high(er) levels of covid about, to make the threat credible, and the imposition on our liberty "needed". You could have achieved this by trying to reopen in February, as Europe did. With cases at trace levels, any claims that we need to be tested, tracked and traced at every turn his summer will surely be cried down
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Agreed - interesting how TNB (who isn’t so new!) mentioned that RSTPaul had criticized the vaccine. His comprehension skills must be lacking as I couldn’t see any criticism in his comments but as you say, doesn’t fit his narrative where we are all raving conspiracy theorists. Maybe we should have a “masked poster” type show where we all guess who TNB is and then shout out “Take off your Mask!”
Obsolete Driver said:
But for what purpose?
What is gained by the government by restricting business operation and profitability, and people's interaction with each other?
Well i've always said there is no grand conspiracy just different groups seizing upon a naturally occurring virus to further their own agendas.What is gained by the government by restricting business operation and profitability, and people's interaction with each other?
The world of lockdown is closer to the economy and society many people behind the scenes want and that is why they push for it and that was why it was held in place months longer that it could be justified, both now and last summer.
They know better than us how we should be living our lives but it is only through fear of something else that they can impose it.
MikeT66 said:
I'm pretty sure they will try and re-introduce lockdown at some point. The query I have is what are they trying to sell or hide from? Is it still a) incompetence? b)Arse-covering? Or is it c)a Health Passport/ Digital ID system?
If A, well.... there's no answer to that.
If B, then surely any return to lockdown is just multiplying the errors and magnifying the mistakes, and the best route out for the government is to drop all restrictions in summer and try and move quietly on.
If C, then I can't grasp how they will 'sell' this. Mutant variation? But with the success of the vaccine (both take-up and effectiveness), they'd have to infer that the new variation is unaffected by the vaccine... so the use of passports is moot.
At this moment, I think we are hostage to a weak and directionless government made superficially strong by the total absence of any real opposition. In turn, they are caught in a fear-mongering trap of their (and SAGE's) own making... and despite their planting of the seeds, they can see no way out of the maze that leaves them unscathed - better instead that the pain is bourne by the populace instead to safeguard careers, reputations and the avoidance of any kind of human rights trial.
It is a combination of all 3 in my view - to varying levels. They were and still are incompetent, want to cover their backsides to stop the public seeing through their incompetence and see the ID type cards as a way out of it all, especially since much of the public would appear to be supportive of such a plan.If A, well.... there's no answer to that.
If B, then surely any return to lockdown is just multiplying the errors and magnifying the mistakes, and the best route out for the government is to drop all restrictions in summer and try and move quietly on.
If C, then I can't grasp how they will 'sell' this. Mutant variation? But with the success of the vaccine (both take-up and effectiveness), they'd have to infer that the new variation is unaffected by the vaccine... so the use of passports is moot.
At this moment, I think we are hostage to a weak and directionless government made superficially strong by the total absence of any real opposition. In turn, they are caught in a fear-mongering trap of their (and SAGE's) own making... and despite their planting of the seeds, they can see no way out of the maze that leaves them unscathed - better instead that the pain is bourne by the populace instead to safeguard careers, reputations and the avoidance of any kind of human rights trial.
They might not be so keen once imposed and they see the impact - the hypocrisy form the general populace will then come to the fore again.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I do hope you're not suggesting the pharmas are abusing the opportunity to get paid to test new tech on billions of people across the planet without risk of being sued so they can accelerate the advance of other drugs at taxpayers expense for which they'll make untold riches. Where's your evidence...anonymous said:
[redacted]
Only criticising the coercion involved in getting people who don’t clinically need the vaccine to get the vaccine.Once those vulnerable are vaccinated there is no need for the whole of the population to be vaccinated and that has been shown by the great reduction in infection rates.
If anyone below the age of 50 wishes a vaccine then that is their choice.
purplepenguin said:
Only criticising the coercion involved in getting people who don’t clinically need the vaccine to get the vaccine.
Once those vulnerable are vaccinated there is no need for the whole of the population to be vaccinated and that has been shown by the great reduction in infection rates.
If anyone below the age of 50 wishes a vaccine then that is their choice.
This should also apply to those over 50. As is the case with the flu vaccine.Once those vulnerable are vaccinated there is no need for the whole of the population to be vaccinated and that has been shown by the great reduction in infection rates.
If anyone below the age of 50 wishes a vaccine then that is their choice.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Bulls
t. People are criticising the constant coercion for everyone regardless of risk to be jabbed up (shortly to be their kids too and cats probably).The vaccines are excellent for anyone at risk and especially those over say 50 - it's blatant nonsense you are claiming many here are criticising it.
More to the point the vaccines are extremely effective to the point the marginal reduction of risk (for an unknown period of time) of demanding everone else also get jabbed up is rather bloody unpleasant and the divisiveness of introducing vaccine passports will massively undo that (small) gain in transmission reduction.
Obsolete Driver said:
JagLover said:
Now they will prepare for the push for the autumn lockdown. Triple mutant Covid anyone?
But for what purpose?What is gained by the government by restricting business operation and profitability, and people's interaction with each other?
isaldiri said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Bullst. People are criticising the constant coercion for everyone regardless of risk to be jabbed up (shortly to be their kids too and cats probably).The vaccines are excellent for anyone at risk and especially those over say 50 - it's blatant nonsense you are claiming many here are criticising it.
More to the point the vaccines are extremely effective to the point the marginal reduction of risk (for an unknown period of time) of demanding everone else also get jabbed up is rather bloody unpleasant and the divisiveness of introducing vaccine passports will massively undo that (small) gain in transmission reduction.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Quite curious to see what happens here. I think it's fair to say politics mean it's certain to be agreed for EUA here especially in view of the FDA doing the same but it will be rather amusing to see how the MHRA is going to justify 'emergency use authorisation' for millions kids to get jabbed who absolutely are not clearly getting a benefit from the vaccine. Jabbing up kids to provide a (slight) risk reduction for people already protected by the vaccine would at first glance seem to be a lousy reason for EUA but we live in strange times after all.....danllama said:
The great reset. The green Revolution. Kill off SME's, air travel, freedom. Control the population.
There is certainly some elements of the Great Reset about it , but the facts are yet to see. I absolutely do think there will be some "green" policies rushed through under the guide of Covid in the near future. wiggy001 said:
purplepenguin said:
Only criticising the coercion involved in getting people who don’t clinically need the vaccine to get the vaccine.
Once those vulnerable are vaccinated there is no need for the whole of the population to be vaccinated and that has been shown by the great reduction in infection rates.
If anyone below the age of 50 wishes a vaccine then that is their choice.
This should also apply to those over 50. As is the case with the flu vaccine.Once those vulnerable are vaccinated there is no need for the whole of the population to be vaccinated and that has been shown by the great reduction in infection rates.
If anyone below the age of 50 wishes a vaccine then that is their choice.
isaldiri said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Quite curious to see what happens here. I think it's fair to say politics mean it's certain to be agreed for EUA here especially in view of the FDA doing the same but it will be rather amusing to see how the MHRA is going to justify 'emergency use authorisation' for millions kids to get jabbed who absolutely are not clearly getting a benefit from the vaccine. Jabbing up kids to provide a (slight) risk reduction for people already protected by the vaccine would at first glance seem to be a lousy reason for EUA but we live in strange times after all.....I showed it to the missus, who is fence-sitting but was more on the side of having the vax. I told her ... “this booklet stops short of actually recommending you take the vaccine”, to which she replied “hmm, yea, you’ve kind of got a point” (with a somewhat puzzled look on her face).
I expect we will see something similar, perhaps even more stark, for the “emergency” use of the vaccine in kids.
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