Labour MP Jo Cox Shot
Discussion
JPJPJP said:
Andrew Lilico on Twitter
It's impossible to avoid the thought that that 4-6% margin that the murder of Jo Cox cost the Leave vote in 2016 has had a profound impact on politics. (Leave was 10% ahead & rising, before her horrific murder.) One of the most influential assassinations in British history.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/107320095...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-how-right-or-wrong-were-the-polls/ doesn't seem to show a 10% lead?It's impossible to avoid the thought that that 4-6% margin that the murder of Jo Cox cost the Leave vote in 2016 has had a profound impact on politics. (Leave was 10% ahead & rising, before her horrific murder.) One of the most influential assassinations in British history.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/107320095...
The murder was certainly used to the max by team Remain, and perhaps it did take some votes from the Leave side. However I don’t remember anywhere predicting a Leave win or suggesting they were ahead?
Probably not the best tweet to make considering the mental fragility and faux outrage of Twitter users, he’s certainly poked the nest
Probably not the best tweet to make considering the mental fragility and faux outrage of Twitter users, he’s certainly poked the nest
rscott said:
JPJPJP said:
Andrew Lilico on Twitter
It's impossible to avoid the thought that that 4-6% margin that the murder of Jo Cox cost the Leave vote in 2016 has had a profound impact on politics. (Leave was 10% ahead & rising, before her horrific murder.) One of the most influential assassinations in British history.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/107320095...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-how-right-or-wrong-were-the-polls/ doesn't seem to show a 10% lead?It's impossible to avoid the thought that that 4-6% margin that the murder of Jo Cox cost the Leave vote in 2016 has had a profound impact on politics. (Leave was 10% ahead & rising, before her horrific murder.) One of the most influential assassinations in British history.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/107320095...
He seems like a troll, but the polls do seem to bear out the fact that there was a noticeable shift to remain:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...
Amateurish said:
He seems like a troll, but the polls do seem to bear out the fact that there was a noticeable shift to remain:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...
I think the problem for the pollsters was that many unengaged with politics came out to vote in the referendum. The raw data would (likely) have been adjusted for like-hood to vote so the pollsters systematically underestimated Leave support.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...
I vaguely recall there was a study that corrected for this and found the Cox murder moved voters from Leave to Remain by a couple of percentage points.
JagLover said:
Amateurish said:
He seems like a troll, but the polls do seem to bear out the fact that there was a noticeable shift to remain:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...
I think the problem for the pollsters was that many unengaged with politics came out to vote in the referendum. The raw data would (likely) have been adjusted for like-hood to vote so the pollsters systematically underestimated Leave support.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...
I vaguely recall there was a study that corrected for this and found the Cox murder moved voters from Leave to Remain by a couple of percentage points.
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