How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 5)
Discussion
Dr Jekyll said:
F1GTRUeno said:
Got that now.
So people are happy with the WTO rules and their impact upon our economy sufficiently to want no deal?
They're happy that we lose all leverage in any deals we negotiate after leaving day because every country we try to negotiate with will know that we NEED the deal?
Most of our trade is on WTO already, we don't NEED any deals.So people are happy with the WTO rules and their impact upon our economy sufficiently to want no deal?
They're happy that we lose all leverage in any deals we negotiate after leaving day because every country we try to negotiate with will know that we NEED the deal?
People are so determined to believe that we are small and weak, despite the numbers.
SpeckledJim said:
Exactly. And we're the 5th (6th?) biggest economy in the world. Larger than almost everyone we'll be talking to. Offering a big market for whatever it is they make and sell.
People are so determined to believe that we are small and weak, despite the numbers.
But how many widgets can one eat?People are so determined to believe that we are small and weak, despite the numbers.
PurpleMoonlight said:
SpeckledJim said:
Exactly. And we're the 5th (6th?) biggest economy in the world. Larger than almost everyone we'll be talking to. Offering a big market for whatever it is they make and sell.
People are so determined to believe that we are small and weak, despite the numbers.
But how many widgets can one eat?People are so determined to believe that we are small and weak, despite the numbers.
Interesting article by Roger Bootle in the Telegraph this morning, basically saying we should get off the EU shop before it sinks.
Most interesting is the dissection of economic growth figures;
He says that, "Since the formation of the euro in 1999, Germany’s economy has grown by about 32pc while the poor old UK has grown by 43pc. Meanwhile, the figures for the US and Canada are 49pc and 53pc respectively. In the same period, Sweden has grown by 56pc and Switzerland by 46pc."
He also points out that German domestic growth has been weak at ~20% over the same period because it is companies that have benefited, whilst wages have growth much more slowly. This reliance on external demand is dangerous as it leaves them very vulnerable to external events like Brexit or Italy leaving the Euro.
It is in their Premium section, so may not be visible to all;
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/21/it...
Most interesting is the dissection of economic growth figures;
He says that, "Since the formation of the euro in 1999, Germany’s economy has grown by about 32pc while the poor old UK has grown by 43pc. Meanwhile, the figures for the US and Canada are 49pc and 53pc respectively. In the same period, Sweden has grown by 56pc and Switzerland by 46pc."
He also points out that German domestic growth has been weak at ~20% over the same period because it is companies that have benefited, whilst wages have growth much more slowly. This reliance on external demand is dangerous as it leaves them very vulnerable to external events like Brexit or Italy leaving the Euro.
It is in their Premium section, so may not be visible to all;
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/21/it...
Smiler. said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
don'tbesilly said:
How many posts can one make that contribute nothing, whilst complaining about others doing the same.
Hello stalker, how are you doing today?Smiler. said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
don'tbesilly said:
How many posts can one make that contribute nothing, whilst complaining about others doing the same.
Hello stalker, how are you doing today?
loafer123 said:
Interesting article by Roger Bootle in the Telegraph this morning, basically saying we should get off the EU shop before it sinks.
Most interesting is the dissection of economic growth figures;
He says that, "Since the formation of the euro in 1999, Germany’s economy has grown by about 32pc while the poor old UK has grown by 43pc. Meanwhile, the figures for the US and Canada are 49pc and 53pc respectively. In the same period, Sweden has grown by 56pc and Switzerland by 46pc."
He also points out that German domestic growth has been weak at ~20% over the same period because it is companies that have benefited, whilst wages have growth much more slowly. This reliance on external demand is dangerous as it leaves them very vulnerable to external events like Brexit or Italy leaving the Euro.
It is in their Premium section, so may not be visible to all;
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/21/it...
What bearing might reunification have on Germany's wage growth in that period though? I gather that wages in the former East Germany are still lower today, a bit like our North / South divide.Most interesting is the dissection of economic growth figures;
He says that, "Since the formation of the euro in 1999, Germany’s economy has grown by about 32pc while the poor old UK has grown by 43pc. Meanwhile, the figures for the US and Canada are 49pc and 53pc respectively. In the same period, Sweden has grown by 56pc and Switzerland by 46pc."
He also points out that German domestic growth has been weak at ~20% over the same period because it is companies that have benefited, whilst wages have growth much more slowly. This reliance on external demand is dangerous as it leaves them very vulnerable to external events like Brexit or Italy leaving the Euro.
It is in their Premium section, so may not be visible to all;
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/21/it...
king arthur said:
loafer123 said:
Interesting article by Roger Bootle in the Telegraph this morning, basically saying we should get off the EU shop before it sinks.
Most interesting is the dissection of economic growth figures;
He says that, "Since the formation of the euro in 1999, Germany’s economy has grown by about 32pc while the poor old UK has grown by 43pc. Meanwhile, the figures for the US and Canada are 49pc and 53pc respectively. In the same period, Sweden has grown by 56pc and Switzerland by 46pc."
He also points out that German domestic growth has been weak at ~20% over the same period because it is companies that have benefited, whilst wages have growth much more slowly. This reliance on external demand is dangerous as it leaves them very vulnerable to external events like Brexit or Italy leaving the Euro.
It is in their Premium section, so may not be visible to all;
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/21/it...
What bearing might reunification have on Germany's wage growth in that period though? I gather that wages in the former East Germany are still lower today, a bit like our North / South divide.Most interesting is the dissection of economic growth figures;
He says that, "Since the formation of the euro in 1999, Germany’s economy has grown by about 32pc while the poor old UK has grown by 43pc. Meanwhile, the figures for the US and Canada are 49pc and 53pc respectively. In the same period, Sweden has grown by 56pc and Switzerland by 46pc."
He also points out that German domestic growth has been weak at ~20% over the same period because it is companies that have benefited, whilst wages have growth much more slowly. This reliance on external demand is dangerous as it leaves them very vulnerable to external events like Brexit or Italy leaving the Euro.
It is in their Premium section, so may not be visible to all;
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/21/it...
Vanden Saab said:
Emily Thornbury on the news this morning saying that the government should have spent the last two years negotiating an FTA. Do these politicians not get briefed or was she deliberately lying?
The opposition can say what they want with regard to what they would have done if in government - no-one is gonna call them out on it unfortunately because it is just fluff and flannelThe EU set the terms and process for withdrawing - Agree divorce/exit first and then they would talk about a trade agreement.....
ET will state that a Labour Government would have persuaded the EU that Divorce/Exit and FTA could be done in parallel and would have been successful - no one can disagree because it's all fiction
SpeckledJim said:
Dr Jekyll said:
F1GTRUeno said:
Got that now.
So people are happy with the WTO rules and their impact upon our economy sufficiently to want no deal?
They're happy that we lose all leverage in any deals we negotiate after leaving day because every country we try to negotiate with will know that we NEED the deal?
Most of our trade is on WTO already, we don't NEED any deals.So people are happy with the WTO rules and their impact upon our economy sufficiently to want no deal?
They're happy that we lose all leverage in any deals we negotiate after leaving day because every country we try to negotiate with will know that we NEED the deal?
People are so determined to believe that we are small and weak, despite the numbers.
Our position in the economic table is inevitably going to slip as emerging economies grow. We are never going to compete long-term with their much larger workforces.
Nickgnome said:
SpeckledJim said:
Dr Jekyll said:
F1GTRUeno said:
Got that now.
So people are happy with the WTO rules and their impact upon our economy sufficiently to want no deal?
They're happy that we lose all leverage in any deals we negotiate after leaving day because every country we try to negotiate with will know that we NEED the deal?
Most of our trade is on WTO already, we don't NEED any deals.So people are happy with the WTO rules and their impact upon our economy sufficiently to want no deal?
They're happy that we lose all leverage in any deals we negotiate after leaving day because every country we try to negotiate with will know that we NEED the deal?
People are so determined to believe that we are small and weak, despite the numbers.
Our position in the economic table is inevitably going to slip as emerging economies grow. We are never going to compete long-term with their much larger workforces.
The nature of the EU is that the trade agreements it does are lowest common denominator, taking into account the red lines of 28 nations.
By contrast, a bi-lateral agreement between the UK and a country would be bespoke to the needs of both.
If you like, the comparison is between a tracksuit and a tailored suit.
Nickgnome said:
I do not believe it is a good plan for an economy like ours to be doing lots of relatively small deals with the time and effort that entails, which is broadly similar to undertaking much larger agreements.
Japan, Australia, Singapore, Canada, USA... Call it small if you like, but it's ok for me. Nickgnome said:
Our position in the economic table is inevitably going to slip as emerging economies grow. We are never going to compete long-term with their much larger workforces.
On mass production I completely agree. And that's already the case, and isn't going to change, EU or not. As these emerging economies grow we've a much better chance of promoting some mutually beneficial trade with them if we're allowed to pick up the phone and get cracking, rather than wait for a decade for Brussels to double-check what the Walloons think about it all.
On high-tech; luxury brands; knowledge; education; financial services, we're well-placed to do fine. Not least because the world talks our language and London has a claim almost as strong as anywhere to being the capital city of the world.
Edited by SpeckledJim on Monday 22 October 11:56
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