Theresa May (Vol.2)
Discussion
My reading of it is that Nadine is just getting her recriminations in first.
If she thought there was any chance of persuading her colleagues to her point of view, she would have gone to the meeting,
So she is effectively acknowledging the ERG group are not going to reach the 48 letters, and an election is on its way.
If she thought there was any chance of persuading her colleagues to her point of view, she would have gone to the meeting,
So she is effectively acknowledging the ERG group are not going to reach the 48 letters, and an election is on its way.
Helicopter123 said:
Good post.
The deal will be as good as it gets for Brexit supporters. I've been saying this for some time. I'm not sure anyone left holding out for "unicorns"
Surely it'll be as good as it gets for remainers too The deal will be as good as it gets for Brexit supporters. I've been saying this for some time. I'm not sure anyone left holding out for "unicorns"
Why will it lead to an election?
The electorate is swinging behind May for sticking to her guns
saaby93 said:
Why will it lead to an election?
Something has to give. ERG are saying they won't vote for May's deal. And May will need their support to get it through Parliament. She may have a couple of goes, but unless they change their view, an election follows. At least, that's how I see it.And in a General Election, Labour will offer a 2nd referendum as a way of "breaking the deadlock".
Conservatives won't want to offer a 2nd referendum (for all the obvious reason), but may need to do so. Otherwise it would be easy for them to be outmaneuvered during an election campaign.
Conservatives won't want to offer a 2nd referendum (for all the obvious reason), but may need to do so. Otherwise it would be easy for them to be outmaneuvered during an election campaign.
EddieSteadyGo said:
saaby93 said:
Why will it lead to an election?
Something has to give. ERG are saying they won't vote for May's deal. And May will need their support to get it through Parliament. She may have a couple of goes, but unless they change their view, an election follows. At least, that's how I see it.Isnt that worse for ERG than supporting May?
saaby93 said:
an election comes and the public votes to remain
Isnt that worse for ERG than supporting May?
I think this is the crux - no one can predict the result of a 2nd referendum. And we don't know what the question would be either (which will be crucial).Isnt that worse for ERG than supporting May?
So I was saying originally, if I were a member of the ERG, I would hold my nose and vote for May's deal. Let it go through, wait until the summer, and then replace her someone like Raab.
EddieSteadyGo said:
saaby93 said:
an election comes and the public votes to remain
Isnt that worse for ERG than supporting May?
I think this is the crux - no one can predict the result of a 2nd referendum. And we don't know what the question would be either (which will be crucial).Isnt that worse for ERG than supporting May?
So I was saying originally, if I were a member of the ERG, I would hold my nose and vote for May's deal. Let it go through, wait until the summer, and then replace her someone like Raab.
Not that ERG would have much say in it.
ash73 said:
saaby93 said:
an election comes and the public votes to remain
Isnt that worse for ERG than supporting May?
I can't see much difference between May's deal and remain, tbh.Isnt that worse for ERG than supporting May?
What with the minor difference that it leaves the EU
i.e. leaves everything so we dont have to pay whatever it was that Boris wrote on the side of his bus.
Add to that the draft agreement for a trade deal with the EU that tries sort out the issue with the border across Ireland
Not much difference to remain
EddieSteadyGo said:
Something has to give. ERG are saying they won't vote for May's deal. And May will need their support to get it through Parliament. She may have a couple of goes, but unless they change their view, an election follows. At least, that's how I see it.
There's no need for an election, and the Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes it unlikely. We've got two routes to an election - first, that two thirds of the house votes for one (and the Tories won't vote for one because why would they want to lose power) and second, that there are two no confidence votes in two weeks.There might be a first no confidence vote, but that would only be because the DUP want to unseat the PM. They'd vote with the government on the second one because presumably Mrs. May would have her P45 by that point.
jsf said:
techguyone said:
Couldn't all this have been stopped by simply specifying that there needed to be a clear lead on whoever won the ref, like 62% or something a bit less contentious than (in this case 2%) or are we obliged to do a FPTP legally.
4%Quite right, I stand corrected.
t and get battered from everyone involved. 
it can only be that she thinks she’s Maggy mk2 unfortunately she’s more Kim philby even looks like him dressed as a woman davepoth said:
There's no need for an election, and the Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes it unlikely. We've got two routes to an election - first, that two thirds of the house votes for one (and the Tories won't vote for one because why would they want to lose power) and second, that there are two no confidence votes in two weeks.
There might be a first no confidence vote, but that would only be because the DUP want to unseat the PM. They'd vote with the government on the second one because presumably Mrs. May would have her P45 by that point.
Also bear in mind that the ERG or its predecessors have been campaigning since Maastricht. I’m sure they would rather pick remain rather than the handcuffs of the May deal. This is a matter of principle for them. There might be a first no confidence vote, but that would only be because the DUP want to unseat the PM. They'd vote with the government on the second one because presumably Mrs. May would have her P45 by that point.
They’ll just pick up the cudgels again.
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