How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 15)

[PushedDover]

Helicopter123 said:

JNW1 said:

jsf said:

Frost response. No deal coming tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1316785715...

"Disappointed by the #EUCO conclusions on UK/EU negotiations. Surprised EU is no longer committed to working "intensively" to reach a future partnership as agreed with @vonderleyen on 3 October.

Also surprised by suggestion that to get an agreement all future moves must come from UK. It's an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.

PM @BorisJohnson will set out UK reactions and approach tomorrow in the light of his statement of 7 September."

Tomorrow's update from Johnson will certainly be interesting; I can't see him accepting the EU's stance of "it's up to the UK to move if we're going to get a deal" so you have to think announcing we're walking away is now a distinct possibility. To be honest if what we've got is indeed the EU's last word on the matter (as opposed to just posturing) I think he has little choice if he's to retain any credibility....

Boris has had his bluff called.

Or..... we wait for tomorrow to check this?

[anonymous-user]

You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done

[anonymous-user]

catweasle said:

You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done

We've been Rogered alright.

[JNW1]

Helicopter123 said:

JNW1 said:

jsf said:

Frost response. No deal coming tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1316785715...

"Disappointed by the #EUCO conclusions on UK/EU negotiations. Surprised EU is no longer committed to working "intensively" to reach a future partnership as agreed with @vonderleyen on 3 October.

Also surprised by suggestion that to get an agreement all future moves must come from UK. It's an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.

PM @BorisJohnson will set out UK reactions and approach tomorrow in the light of his statement of 7 September."

Tomorrow's update from Johnson will certainly be interesting; I can't see him accepting the EU's stance of "it's up to the UK to move if we're going to get a deal" so you have to think announcing we're walking away is now a distinct possibility. To be honest if what we've got is indeed the EU's last word on the matter (as opposed to just posturing) I think he has little choice if he's to retain any credibility....

Boris has had his bluff called.

Either he's had his bluff called or he's been poked with a big stick. Regardless, the vibes coming from the EU today seem to be they're not interested in negotiating further and just expect us to fall in line with their demands if we want a deal; I suspect Boris doesn't want one that badly - and will be prepared to walk away - so if in reality the EU really want a deal they might have overplayed their hand somewhat...

[anonymous-user]

'No deal' is in neither party's interest. If that's where we end up, it's a failure on both sides. Totally unnecessary.

[loafer123]

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

'No deal' is in neither party's interest. If that's where we end up, it's a failure on both sides. Totally unnecessary.

Agreed, but where would the compromise lie?

[anonymous-user]

loafer123 said:

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

'No deal' is in neither party's interest. If that's where we end up, it's a failure on both sides. Totally unnecessary.

Agreed, but where would the compromise lie?

I'd like to hear your answer too, Ronnie.

[DeejRC]

It’s pretty lousy diplomacy all round. A bunch of supposed allies can’t reach mutual agreement. Poor.

[anonymous-user]

loafer123 said:

Agreed, but where would the compromise lie?

I don't know enough of the detail to say.

If I had to guess, the real issue is state support and 'level playing field' in how we compete with the bloc. I suspect the EU is simultaneously as an organisation trying to punish us for leaving and individualy disorganised and full of self interest. For our part I suspect Boris is content with no deal. If I'm right, no deal is inevitable unless the EU caves. I hope I'm wrong.

[JNW1]

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

'No deal' is in neither party's interest. If that's where we end up, it's a failure on both sides. Totally unnecessary.

Agree entirely.

Interestingly, Barnier is now saying he's ready to negotiate for the next two weeks - including the weekend - to secure a deal whilst Simon Coveney has made comments to the effect he believes a deal can be done by the end of the month. So perhaps the tone of the EU statement doesn't quite reflect the reality of their position - surely they can't seriously believe all further movement has to come from the UK?

[don'tbesilly]

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

loafer123 said:

Agreed, but where would the compromise lie?

I don't know enough of the detail to say.

If I had to guess, the real issue is state support and 'level playing field' in how we compete with the bloc. I suspect the EU is simultaneously as an organisation trying to punish us for leaving and individualy disorganised and full of self interest. For our part I suspect Boris is content with no deal. If I'm right, no deal is inevitable unless the EU caves. I hope I'm wrong.

So how do you propose Frost negotiates with such a stance and ingrained beliefs and then successfully comes away with an equitable agreement?

There is no evidence that Johnson wants no deal, but based on what you've written I'm amazed you think that anything else is possible unless you think agreeing to a deal with an organisation that and in your words is "trying to punish us" is in any way a good deal,

[anonymous-user]

JNW1 said:

Agree entirely.

Interestingly, Barnier is now saying he's ready to negotiate for the next two weeks - including the weekend - to secure a deal whilst Simon Coveney has made comments to the effect he believes a deal can be done by the end of the month. So perhaps the tone of the EU statement doesn't quite reflect the reality of their position - surely they can't seriously believe all further movement has to come from the UK?

There is nothing to discuss unless they drop their negotiating remit, which they just doubled down on. It's game over time.

[Earthdweller]

JNW1 said:

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

'No deal' is in neither party's interest. If that's where we end up, it's a failure on both sides. Totally unnecessary.

Agree entirely.

Interestingly, Barnier is now saying he's ready to negotiate for the next two weeks - including the weekend - to secure a deal whilst Simon Coveney has made comments to the effect he believes a deal can be done by the end of the month. So perhaps the tone of the EU statement doesn't quite reflect the reality of their position - surely they can't seriously believe all further movement has to come from the UK?

The statement has called BJ’s bluff

All along he has said “No Deal is better than a bad deal”

Well he’s being told to accept a “Bad deal” or walk

I think politically, in the U.K., both BJ and the Conservative party are toast if he capitulates

That Barnier and Coveney are now rowing back on the statement demonstrates clearly that the EU is divided and cannot be trusted

Imo .. BJ has to walk away now .. failure to do so will be the end of him

[don'tbesilly]

jsf said:

JNW1 said:

Agree entirely.

Interestingly, Barnier is now saying he's ready to negotiate for the next two weeks - including the weekend - to secure a deal whilst Simon Coveney has made comments to the effect he believes a deal can be done by the end of the month. So perhaps the tone of the EU statement doesn't quite reflect the reality of their position - surely they can't seriously believe all further movement has to come from the UK?

There is nothing to discuss unless they drop their negotiating remit, which they just doubled down on. It's game over time.

Reading some of the tweets from Katya Adler (no reason to disbelieve them) the climbdown on the rhetoric that came earlier is nothing other than a smokescreen, if they haven't got to an understanding by now wk/ends and more weeks of negotiating won't achieve anything, that's crystal clear.

I'd hope Frost can see his way through the smoke.

[JNW1]

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

loafer123 said:

Agreed, but where would the compromise lie?

I don't know enough of the detail to say.

If I had to guess, the real issue is state support and 'level playing field' in how we compete with the bloc. I suspect the EU is simultaneously as an organisation trying to punish us for leaving and individualy disorganised and full of self interest. For our part I suspect Boris is content with no deal. If I'm right, no deal is inevitable unless the EU caves. I hope I'm wrong.

From what I read some progress has been made on the level playing field and it's actually fishing that's now the main sticking point. However, although that's obviously significant to some coastal communities it's small beer in the grand scheme of things for both sides; therefore, if that really is the main issue it ought to be surmountable (and IMO it would be borderline criminal if it all fell apart because of that).

[anonymous-user]

don'tbesilly said:

So how do you propose Frost negotiates with such a stance and ingrained beliefs and then successfully comes away with an equitable agreement?

Who knows who's bluffing and who isn't? You set your own lines in the sand and go in good faith to try and reach an agreement. What's happening now is an illustration of why the EU is destined to fail; full of competing interests and no clear drive. Negotiating with 27 people at the same time is futile.

The UK is not without blame, as we've aroused suspicion with our behaviour.

I harbour a hope that both sides give some ground once they realise a no deal is the inevitable outcome of the current positions.

[anonymous-user]

JNW1 said:

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

loafer123 said:

Agreed, but where would the compromise lie?

I don't know enough of the detail to say.

If I had to guess, the real issue is state support and 'level playing field' in how we compete with the bloc. I suspect the EU is simultaneously as an organisation trying to punish us for leaving and individualy disorganised and full of self interest. For our part I suspect Boris is content with no deal. If I'm right, no deal is inevitable unless the EU caves. I hope I'm wrong.

From what I read some progress has been made on the level playing field and it's actually fishing that's now the main sticking point. However, although that's obviously significant to some coastal communities it's small beer in the grand scheme of things for both sides; therefore, if that really is the main issue it ought to be surmountable (and IMO it would be borderline criminal if it all fell apart because of that).

It's a fundamental matter of sovereignty. No nation state should have to compromise their territorial integrity to achieve a trade deal.
What France and Spain are demanding is ludicrous.

[anonymous-user]

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

don'tbesilly said:

So how do you propose Frost negotiates with such a stance and ingrained beliefs and then successfully comes away with an equitable agreement?

Who knows who's bluffing and who isn't? You set your own lines in the sand and go in good faith to try and reach an agreement. What's happening now is an illustration of why the EU is destined to fail; full of competing interests and no clear drive. Negotiating with 27 people at the same time is futile.

The UK is not without blame, as we've aroused suspicion with our behaviour.

I harbour a hope that both sides give some ground once they realise a no deal is the inevitable outcome of the current positions.

On fishing, what ground can we give up?

[anonymous-user]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Is there a reason (beyond principle alone) we shouldn't compromise, if it meant we achieved a good trade deal on everything else? If we aren't prepared to offer concessions on fishing, is there anything else you think we can concede over?

[don'tbesilly]

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

don'tbesilly said:

So how do you propose Frost negotiates with such a stance and ingrained beliefs and then successfully comes away with an equitable agreement?

Who knows who's bluffing and who isn't? You set your own lines in the sand and go in good faith to try and reach an agreement. What's happening now is an illustration of why the EU is destined to fail; full of competing interests and no clear drive. Negotiating with 27 people at the same time is futile.

The UK is not without blame, as we've aroused suspicion with our behaviour.

I harbour a hope that both sides give some ground once they realise a no deal is the inevitable outcome of the current positions.

It's interesting that you've made no allowance for the reasons behind such behaviour?

Can I ask why if it's as bad as you suggest, why was the IMB voted through the HoC (three readings) and is now awaiting it's passage through the HoL (it will be ping pong admittedly)?
Or perhaps you believe most of the Tory party are just 'yes' men.