Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread

[Elysium]

vaud said:

Elysium said:

Of course schools are 'indoors', but as was suggested early on, the real world data continues to support the idea that schoolchildren transmit the virus less than adults and that child to child transmission is suprisingly rare.

I'm not so sure. It went rapidly through our school and currently 25% of Foundation year are out sick with it. With lowish levels in the community, it would seem odd for them all to get it in one week if it wasn't being transmitted between the kids. Seems mild, but maybe just the current variant is more transmissible between kids.

Prof Mark Woolhouse was part of SPI-M the SAGE modelling subcomittee. He did some work in Summer 2020 which failed to find any evidence of children as a driver of transmission. This was reported at the time here and he covers it in his recently published book, which I would heartily recommend:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8548461/N...

By mid January 2022 we had identified around 2.2m cases of COVID in England and Wales amongst the under 15's. This is about 20% of the population

However, the ONS were suggesting that up to 93% of 12-15 year olds and 73% of 8-11 year olds were likely to have antibodies at that time. Since the majority of that group were unvaccinated this implies 7-8 million childhood infections that were so mild that they went undocumented:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

Observation of symptomatic cases in schools is not necessarily giving the full picture.

[the-photographer]

NoddyonNitrous said:

An increasing proportion of inpatients testing positive are coincidental rather than prime cause of admission. Maybe the combination of covid and other disease is slowing recovery.

More on the coincidental

On 1 March, 4,452 people were in hospital with Covid, compared to 3,525 people who were being treated for the disease. By 8 March, this had risen to 4,908 and 3,661 respectively.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-en...

[the-photographer]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

Northern Island and Scotland fastest growth

[Elysium]

I wasn't planning to do any more updates, but the recent growth in cases prompted me to take another look

1. Year on Year comparisons. If the increase in cases is going to result in more deaths we should start to see this next week. I am hopeful we won't because mechanical ventilator bed occupancy has not increased with admissions or the overall numbers in hospital. This all suggests to me that general prevalence of COVID has increased, because contacts have increased. But that this is not translating to an increase in severe COVID and that the hospital admission rise is likely to be incidental.





2. When we look at Cases per 100k tests, admissions and deaths with a 7 and 14 day lag we see something interesting. The admissions growth appears to happen before the case growth. So the normal lag between becoming a case and being admitted has changed. In fact admission and case growth have happened simultaneously, which again fits the thoery of a general increase in prevalence with associated incidental admissions.



Overall, this looks fine to me given we are now operating with no real domestic restrictions. Next couple of weeks will be interesting though

[rover 623gsi]

Thanks

[interstellar]

Very interesting Elysium, really good info that.

[Zad]

There is an interesting thread here by John Burn-Murdoch:
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1504497732...

The BA.2 sub-strain certainly seems to be driving things. Again, slightly more contagious and slightly less damaging than previously (usual caveats apply).

[Elysium]

That is a really interesting thread from John Burn-Murdoch. The good news is that this is all still omicron and we can see other countries already peaking following the shift to BA.2

[PBCD]

Zad said:

There is an interesting thread here by John Burn-Murdoch:
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1504497732...

The BA.2 sub-strain certainly seems to be driving things. Again, slightly more contagious and slightly less damaging than previously (usual caveats apply).

Presumably the waves in other regions will 'flatten out' in the coming weeks as per Northern Ireland?

[Terminator X]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

So 15m deaths from 8bn population and at what £'s cost ...

TX.

[Smollet]

Terminator X said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

So 15m deaths from 8bn population and at what £'s cost ...

TX.

Iirc the population of the world has grown by 200m since the start of the pandemic

[Elysium]

Smollet said:

Terminator X said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

So 15m deaths from 8bn population and at what £'s cost ...

TX.

Iirc the population of the world has grown by 200m since the start of the pandemic

We would expect 120 million deaths globally across 2020 and 2021. So this represents a circa 12.5% increase in all-cause mortality.

[Elysium]

Latest data from the ONS confirms that omicron is MUCH less likely to kill you than Delta:



https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

A tenfold reduction in mortality risk for those <70

[Smollet]

Even that scaremonger Dr Hilary(ITV) has admitted deaths are still falling. He must be gutted

[jet_noise]

Elysium said:

Latest data from the ONS confirms that omicron is MUCH less likely to kill you than Delta:



https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

A tenfold reduction in mortality risk for those <70

I needed to ask the question what about vaccination status so likely others will too. Has already been considered.

Link subtitle says "Analysis comparing the risk of coronavirus (COVID-19) death in people infected by Omicron and Delta variants, after adjusting for age, sex, other socio-demographic factors, vaccination status and health conditions."

[scenario8]

Thanks, Elysium.

[Biker 1]

My man maths isn't up to it on a Monday afternoon - what does the IFR look like for under 70s these days? I suspect its something similar to complications from the common cold(???)

[RSTurboPaul]

I have not looked at the data behind the claims being made in this piece as I have too much else to do at the moment (and I'm not sure I'm clever enough) but the article claims that several independent analyses have come to the same conclusion - that deaths are spiking five months after a rollout of injections of a new medical product.

https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/this-one-graph-...

There are graphs and everything so I'd welcome any thoughts / comments on it by those with more time / skillz than me to absorb it and understand it.

[sim72]

[quote=RSTurboPaul]I have not looked at the data behind the claims being made in this piece as I have too much else to do at the moment (and I'm not sure I'm clever enough) but the article claims that several independent analyses have come to the same conclusion - that deaths are spiking five months after a rollout of injections of a new medical product.

https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/this-one-graph-...

There are graphs and everything so I'd welcome any thoughts / comments on it by those with more time / skillz than me to absorb it and understand it.[/quote

This was funny
"So when you hear of a death from stroke, cardiac arrest, heart attack, cancer, and suicide that is happening around 5 months after vaccination, it could very well be a vaccine-related death."

The graph just after it made me ROFL. See if you can work out why.

[rovermorris999]

A well-qualified statistician had a look at the data and has presented it, here's what he thinks: (mods: the author states he's happy for the article to be shared verbatim)

https://jdee.substack.com/p/vaccines-and-death-par...

Make of it what you will.