CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)

[Pete102]

55north1west said:

I think it’s just some more light at the end of the tunnel propaganda from Boris, I’m fully prepared to be disappointed

Its the straw haired fk jumping on the shifting public sentiment now that vaccines are well underway.

[isaldiri]

bodhi said:

Interestingly Joel Smalley is in the process of investigating what would have happened without the restrictions - still awaiting his full report and his methodology, but initial graphs look interesting.

https://twitter.com/RealJoelSmalley?s=09

Smalley is part of PANDA and HART so likely to be firmly on the "open up" side of things, but should be an interesting counter to Prof Dooms 510k deaths of we do nothing work.

From his numbers it does seem like the restrictions had an effect, but looks like the sort of effect which could be easily wiped out by all the deaths caused by missed treatments, suicide etc.

No idea who he is or what he does or why what he does is any more relevant or important than anyone else..... but these days anyone can put up some fancy graphs in an attempt to try to claim just about anything and spin whatever message they want whether or not it actually stacks up as nice graphs with lots of lines seem enough to start persuading people on social media..

Anyone confidently predicting to be able to 'investigate' what would have happened without restrictions is I'd suggest simply looking for a number to justify whatever viewpoint they already have held. It also wouldn't be a counter to Imperial/Ferguson's 500k deaths as that was assuming 'do nothing with no behaviour change'. You left out the last bit there and it's quite important I'd suggest.....

[johnboy1975]

Pete102 said:

55north1west said:

I think it’s just some more light at the end of the tunnel propaganda from Boris, I’m fully prepared to be disappointed

Its the straw haired fk jumping on the shifting public sentiment now that vaccines are well underway.

Its going to be difficult not to present a fairly optimistic path out of lockdown. (And Boris likes easy). SAGE may try to derail, but they are not in charge

Something like

Schools (primary) - 8th March
Secondary - after Easter
None essential shops - Easter / just before?
Pubs - Mid - late April (tier 2 rules)
Pubs - tier 1 rules - mid May - early Juneish

I'd go quicker, but hey ho. I think Boris has expressed reluctance for regional tiers though. So not sure if he has something else in mind, or just tiers at a national level?

UK summer holidays are pretty much a certainty (feck knows what Shapps was on about ) - they would require tier 3 restrictions all summer to put a dent in it. Key question is, are the councils going to open the toilets this year, or will people be stting in burger boxes on the beach again?

[johnboy1975]

isaldiri said:

bodhi said:

Interestingly Joel Smalley is in the process of investigating what would have happened without the restrictions - still awaiting his full report and his methodology, but initial graphs look interesting.

https://twitter.com/RealJoelSmalley?s=09

Smalley is part of PANDA and HART so likely to be firmly on the "open up" side of things, but should be an interesting counter to Prof Dooms 510k deaths of we do nothing work.

From his numbers it does seem like the restrictions had an effect, but looks like the sort of effect which could be easily wiped out by all the deaths caused by missed treatments, suicide etc.

No idea who he is or what he does or why what he does is any more relevant or important than anyone else..... but these days anyone can put up some fancy graphs in an attempt to try to claim just about anything and spin whatever message they want whether or not it actually stacks up as nice graphs with lots of lines seem enough to start persuading people on social media..

Anyone confidently predicting to be able to 'investigate' what would have happened without restrictions is I'd suggest simply looking for a number to justify whatever viewpoint they already have held. It also wouldn't be a counter to Imperial/Ferguson's 500k deaths as that was assuming 'do nothing with no behaviour change'. You left out the last bit there and it's quite important I'd suggest.....

I'd expect a much slower decline with no restrictions, unless seasonality had that much impact? The original idea was a slow burn keeping under NHS capacity

Something like (my line in purple)

[Pete102]

johnboy1975 said:

Its going to be difficult not to present a fairly optimistic path out of lockdown. (And Boris likes easy). SAGE may try to derail, but they are not in charge

Something like

Schools (primary) - 8th March
Secondary - after Easter
None essential shops - Easter / just before?
Pubs - Mid - late April (tier 2 rules)
Pubs - tier 1 rules - mid May - early Juneish

I'd go quicker, but hey ho. I think Boris has expressed reluctance for regional tiers though. So not sure if he has something else in mind, or just tiers at a national level?

UK summer holidays are pretty much a certainty (feck knows what Shapps was on about ) - they would require tier 3 restrictions all summer to put a dent in it. Key question is, are the councils going to open the toilets this year, or will people be stting in burger boxes on the beach again?

To echo some other posters on here, carrot - stick. If Boris had told us in January that schools would be closed until April with non-essential retail closed until May there would have been uproar. I realise that at this point of February, the next carrot isn't that far away (schools re-opening on March 8th) but the normalisation of time-scales into May and June really fking grates on me. Whilst I accept these are timescales we are working to, this is what I'd like to see:

- Primary + Years 7 - 9 back March 8th.
- Hairdressers and gyms open week 3 March (I need a fking haircut!)
- Full school / college return early April
- Non-essential retail Monday following Easter
- Pubs / restaurants open week 1 May

Everything being well, infection levels in March will be <5k / day, hospitalisations will be down and NHS will have capacity. As we move into the warmer months spread will be naturally less.

I'd also like to see a big opening up of vaccination once the JVCI groups are complete, essentially having the big centres open 24/7 for anyone to turn up without an appointment (drive through etc.).

[survivalist]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

It's not just that. 5 months of inactivity has a huge impact on overall health and fitness. While less of an issue for a 12 year old compared to, say, a 52 year old it just creates other issues.

It's just yet another example of why the NHS needs serious reform. As Tonker illustrates, it's bureaucracy and politics that is driving up the cost of healthcare while simultaneously delivering worse outcomes.

I had a similar experience where I paid for 3 months of private physio because the NHS told me I wouldn't even be eligible to go on their lengthy waiting list until I had made a full recovery from my injuries. Yet in Canada, where I sustained the injury and received the necessary surgery, I was given physiotherapy every day following my operation. Their approach was that they wanted to limit muscle wastage in order to hasten my recovery, as that way I was less likely to be a burden on the health service. The approach taken by my local hospital and GP was that I should rest up until the bones were 100% healed and then they'd consider what rehabilitation was required.

[Muncher]

My money is on primary schools open on 8 March and they will review the situation 3 weeks later without committing to anything further. Pubs to eventually open in June.

[Capt. Howdy]

First weekend of May, all open.
Just in time for Hancocks favourite sport cricket to start.

[johnboy1975]

Pete102 said:

To echo some other posters on here, carrot - stick. If Boris had told us in January that schools would be closed until April with non-essential retail closed until May there would have been uproar. I realise that at this point of February, the next carrot isn't that far away (schools re-opening on March 8th) but the normalisation of time-scales into May and June really fking grates on me. Whilst I accept these are timescales we are working to, this is what I'd like to see:

- Primary + Years 7 - 9 back March 8th.
- Hairdressers and gyms open week 3 March (I need a fking haircut!)
- Full school / college return early April
- Non-essential retail Monday following Easter
- Pubs / restaurants open week 1 May

Everything being well, infection levels in March will be <5k / day, hospitalisations will be down and NHS will have capacity. As we move into the warmer months spread will be naturally less.

I'd also like to see a big opening up of vaccination once the JVCI groups are complete, essentially having the big centres open 24/7 for anyone to turn up without an appointment (drive through etc.).

Agreed (My timeline is what I expect, not what I'd do. Which is possibly for the best )

The June comment re pubs was for tier 1 btw (rule of 6 mixing) I hope they will be open in April to some degree.

re schools - they were never going back before half term. Its like masks, when will it be safe to un mandate them?

Boris has played a blinder (from the pro lockdown camp PoV...) with the 2 week rule. Means schools can't go back before 8th March (they will be safe on the first, especially primary). I'd have had them all back after half term, maybe extending half term by a week, and taking it off the summer holiday

Surprised by the lack of kick back from non essential retail. Although maybe its substantial and the MSM just aren't reporting it? Must be brutal for them, especially those with winter stock to shift. Grizloc (sp?) had some good insights into this in vol 9

[redrabbit]

bmwmike said:

grumbledoak said:

redrabbit said:

Wow, did Brainpox really post that? And works in the NHS? Says it all about the Covid Kool Aid they must be drinking there.

It just "says it all" about the NHS, really.

...because one person said something someone else on the internet took offense at?

No because such comments tend to confirm my suspicion (initially triggered by similar ones from my consultant haematologist) that there is a myopic groupthink that infests certain levels of the NHS, i.e. that dissenters just wanna get pissed / go on holiday / go to the footie. It's arrogant bks.

[V1nce Fox]

Not hearing any talk at all about when mask mandate will be lifted and become discretionary to the individual.

[akadk]

I’m not expecting removal of restrictions for a long time.

Even when deaths fall assuming vaccine works.

There are so many delusional people under 50, who perceive the virus as posing an existential threat to them, they will be pining for continued restrictions

They have no risk perception, no critical thinking, no sense of perspective and a complete ignorance as to the wider impact on society and economy

Whilst this is the public mood, government will continue with their sadistic power hungry restrictions

[Scolmore]

I can’t immediately fact check this tweet, however if true, it’s absolutely damming

https://twitter.com/latimeralder/status/1360480872...

[SS2.]

Scolmore said:

I can’t immediately fact check this tweet, however if true, it’s absolutely damming

https://twitter.com/latimeralder/status/1360480872...

A quick Google suggests it's less than 1.5 million per quarter.

[ruggedscotty]

MiseryStreak said:

Did anyone else find the headline today utterly hilarious? After months (a year) of people saying ‘it’s just the flu’ and being told the opposite ‘it’s nothing like the flu’, the shiny faced chinless wonder of a health secretary comes out with that little gem!


Well done you absolute moron. You’ve angered all the people who’ve been saying it all along, and all the people who think it’s airborne Ebola and we need to be masked up and isolated for the rest of time.

Now, the entire purpose of rushing through the vaccine and getting millions vaccinated as quickly as possible is to be able to reopen the schools, the shops and the pubs, so fking get on with it you tt.

Okay a year ago it def wasnt the flu was it.... ? the infection rate, the mobbed hospitals, the knock on from it, it def wasnt the flu was it ?

I can guarentee that if this vaccine was not having the effect that it is, and we were still raw to the virus then that headline would not be, would it.

No way in hell would be be saying we could live with it like the flu as at that point with no inherent immunity through the population and the effect that it would have on the population and then the knock on to the hospitals... it really wouldnt be a live with it like we live with the flu.


Now with the vaccine out and people getting the protection from the ravages of the virus, the vaccine stopping them getting the disease working wonders that now we may be possible to say that we can live with it like we live with the flu.

Without the vaccine ? nah...

With the vaccine, and the effect it has yes indeed it will be more like the flu affects the population.


That headline is a product of the effect that the vaccine has within the population.

[steveT350C]

Pubs gearing up for first week in April according to manager of my local, which is an M&B.

[Ntv]

SS2. said:

Scolmore said:

I can’t immediately fact check this tweet, however if true, it’s absolutely damming

https://twitter.com/latimeralder/status/1360480872...

A quick Google suggests it's less than 1.5 million per quarter.

The "overwhelmed" and unable to offer treatment to anyone else is the biggest conspiracy of the whole pandemic.

[Indoraptor]

ruggedscotty said:

Okay a year ago it def wasnt the flu was it.... ? the infection rate, the mobbed hospitals, the knock on from it, it def wasnt the flu was it ?

I can guarentee that if this vaccine was not having the effect that it is, and we were still raw to the virus then that headline would not be, would it.

No way in hell would be be saying we could live with it like the flu as at that point with no inherent immunity through the population and the effect that it would have on the population and then the knock on to the hospitals... it really wouldnt be a live with it like we live with the flu.


Now with the vaccine out and people getting the protection from the ravages of the virus, the vaccine stopping them getting the disease working wonders that now we may be possible to say that we can live with it like we live with the flu.

Without the vaccine ? nah...

With the vaccine, and the effect it has yes indeed it will be more like the flu affects the population.


That headline is a product of the effect that the vaccine has within the population.

The control measures have proved ( pretty much ) that this virus is about 10 times more virulent than flu.

[Ntv]

steveT350C said:

Pubs gearing up for first week in April according to manager of my local, which is an M&B.

I won't go to a pub much until they are normal. Maybe the odd place with a nice beer garden. But tape, masks, apps, spacing farce is not my idea of a nice pub experience.

Once they aren't on furlough they need to feel some of the pain to keep up the pressure to end the madness

[a311]

johnboy1975 said:

Pete102 said:

55north1west said:

I think it’s just some more light at the end of the tunnel propaganda from Boris, I’m fully prepared to be disappointed

Its the straw haired fk jumping on the shifting public sentiment now that vaccines are well underway.

Its going to be difficult not to present a fairly optimistic path out of lockdown. (And Boris likes easy). SAGE may try to derail, but they are not in charge

Something like

Schools (primary) - 8th March
Secondary - after Easter
None essential shops - Easter / just before?
Pubs - Mid - late April (tier 2 rules)
Pubs - tier 1 rules - mid May - early Juneish

I'd go quicker, but hey ho. I think Boris has expressed reluctance for regional tiers though. So not sure if he has something else in mind, or just tiers at a national level?

UK summer holidays are pretty much a certainty (feck knows what Shapps was on about ) - they would require tier 3 restrictions all summer to put a dent in it. Key question is, are the councils going to open the toilets this year, or will people be stting in burger boxes on the beach again?

The odd and therefore worrying thing to me is that Bojo had previously stated we'd not be going back to the tiers and each time I've thought why tar everyone with the same brush? Unless lf course they were wholly ineffective?

In my part of the Lakes were below we're below 80 cases per 100k now, the usual social media brigades were up in arms while we were in tier 1 then tier 2 in following the November lockdown about tourists breaking rules and travelling here. While in tier 2 you could only go to hospitality venues in your family group so I doubt that had much to do with it.

We had the late December early January spike like everywhere else getting up to 300ish per 100k with the hospital's really full.

I think primary schools should be back now but 8th March I hope they are

• I personally think all schools should be back but I can't see it. Online learning seems to be more efftive for older kids this time around.

I wouldn't be surprised to see secondaries go back after Easter which if the government follows through with it's pledge of schools last to close first to re open means non essential retail won't open until after that.

Universities, who knows I can't see the government wanting huge amounts of people moving around the country en mass if they can help it. Maybe let those doing practical degress back but still a lot of people. I'd really feel short changed as a full fee paying student.

Pubs are fked particularly wet pubs. If anything other than unrestricted openning by the start of May. (My place is one such of the fked).

All depends on whether the vaccines have the desired affect if they do it should be accelerated. It could of course all go to rat st if the government keep up the narrative of scary new variants and moving of goal posts......