Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4
Discussion
sisu said:
The question is for Poland, is do they strike these sites in Belarus? Pretty sure that Belarus has the hope that Russia is the deterrent, however this would now be a test given that they are firing missiles at Poland, into Polish airspace. Belarus assumes that no one else will strike to prevent escalation.
I hadn't considered the fact missiles are fired from Belarus. Feels like that should be significant in some way.As should the fact that Russia invaded from within Belarus.
I guess neither Ukraine nor Belarus want Belarus to be fully involved in the war but it feels like Belarus *is* in the war in very real ways.
Not quite sure what would be done about that, but 'something' would be appropriate.
aeropilot said:
sisu said:
Oliver Hardy said:
Been reading that once they degraded the refinaries they will be going after the ports, don't get why they are not going after the electricity grid like the Russians are doing?
The electrical grid is not as vulnerable as the Russian oil refineries. They moved their BSfleet from a deep sea port of Sevastapol to a port north of Georgia hoping that this would be out of range. It seems Storm shadows are used for Port strikes and drones whilst at sea.
The deeper element of the Moscow shootings are that Russia trained ISiS and supplied them with weapons to strike Israel. Chechnya are also not happy with the way the terrorists were treated by the Russian FSB.
Lets see how this plays out as they turn on Alex Novtolav the property developer who owns it. Your average Russian understands that the state has a firm hand, to maintain solidarity. Holding a plain white piece of paper up gets you time in Prison. There is a shadow of men in vans patrolling the streets, like the UAE its great if you play by the rules and people boast how this is the solution to societies ills. The Mussolini "trains running on time" type of thing. Blame Ukraine all you want, even ISIS. But you can't get away from the failure of what happened within Moscow itself and like the Wagner roadshow last year. It shows how fragile internally Russia is overall.
Talking to a petrochemical specialist yesterday, he commented on the strikes at the refineries in Russia. They are hitting the most complicated component, not the most volatile. They could have hit LPG storage tanks and it level everything in 3km. But this cripples the plant with the lowest casualties.
sisu said:
Talking to a petrochemical specialist yesterday, he commented on the strikes at the refineries in Russia. They are hitting the most complicated component, not the most volatile.
Yep, as I said earlier in the thread, the mate of mine who is ex-petrochem, said they are targeting specific elements that Russia have relied on getting from western oil companies and suppliers, and thus will not be easy (or even possible) for them to repair or replace.BikeBikeBIke said:
sisu said:
The question is for Poland, is do they strike these sites in Belarus? Pretty sure that Belarus has the hope that Russia is the deterrent, however this would now be a test given that they are firing missiles at Poland, into Polish airspace. Belarus assumes that no one else will strike to prevent escalation.
I hadn't considered the fact missiles are fired from Belarus. Feels like that should be significant in some way.As should the fact that Russia invaded from within Belarus.
I guess neither Ukraine nor Belarus want Belarus to be fully involved in the war but it feels like Belarus *is* in the war in very real ways.
Not quite sure what would be done about that, but 'something' would be appropriate.
The other deeper problem is the idea that if Poland strikes deep into Belarus as the Russians use this as a training base and staging area. Then there goes most of the depth for the meat grinder for 2024/5.
Belarus can also shell the Lithuanian capital from within their border. The test of seeing how strong the article 5 is for NATO is very real given how America has taken a holiday until Easter on this whole thing.
sisu said:
Chechnya are also not happy with the way the terrorists were treated by the Russian FSB.
Really good point. 10% of the Russian population are Muslim. Chechnya is already on a knife edge. This attack has lead to general mistreatment of Muslims in Russia. (I expect it was planned to do so.)No wonder Putin looks stressed.
aeropilot said:
Yep, as I said earlier in the thread, the mate of mine who is ex-petrochem, said they are targeting specific elements that Russia have relied on getting from western oil companies and suppliers, and thus will not be easy (or even possible) for them to repair or replace.
Yes. I am not an O&G engineer, but the tower structures they are very clearly targeting are the complex distillation equipment. All the vales, controls etc. within are very propbably not available from within Russia, or at easy access and reasonable cost through their dodgy trading coutnerparts.How much O&G stuff is actually bespoke to a specific plant I wonder?
BrettMRC said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
aeropilot said:
Poland are not going to unilaterally instigate any military action against Belarus.
No, but I'd like to think their AD might down Russian missiles in their airspace.Don't shoot the missile down = no impact to Polish people but looks potentially weak in front of Russia
Shoot missile down = high risk of Polish people dying or being injured, but sends a message to Russia.
Not a decision I'd like to be faced with.
TheJimi said:
BrettMRC said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
aeropilot said:
Poland are not going to unilaterally instigate any military action against Belarus.
No, but I'd like to think their AD might down Russian missiles in their airspace.Don't shoot the missile down = no impact to Polish people but looks potentially weak in front of Russia
Shoot missile down = high risk of Polish people dying or being injured, but sends a message to Russia.
Not a decision I'd like to be faced with.
Maxdecel said:
BBC Documentary - https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001xr50/ukr... 9:00pm tonight/i player.
Watched this last night. Shocking & thought provoking.We see the geopolitics of it being played out on the news, world leaders posturing and the global impact. Learn about the western and Russian weapon systems. But watching the documentary it pretty shocking to see it really come down to a few blokes running around the woods trying to f
king murder each other!It all feels really pointless at that level, men dying for a few feet of forest. You could really see the Ukrainian’s are very angry and that they would never stop, after the losses they have already endured.
Really made me question what Russia have to gain. Invade Ukraine to get a buffer between NATO or for Ukraine’s resources. But at the cost of crossing horns with NATO and destroying Ukraine. Its infuriatingly pointless.
Left wondering how this will ever end.
Puggit said:
TheJimi said:
BrettMRC said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
aeropilot said:
Poland are not going to unilaterally instigate any military action against Belarus.
No, but I'd like to think their AD might down Russian missiles in their airspace.Don't shoot the missile down = no impact to Polish people but looks potentially weak in front of Russia
Shoot missile down = high risk of Polish people dying or being injured, but sends a message to Russia.
Not a decision I'd like to be faced with.
CaiosH said:
It all feels really pointless at that level, men dying for a few feet of forest. You could really see the Ukrainian’s are very angry and that they would never stop, after the losses they have already endured.
Really made me question what Russia have to gain. Invade Ukraine to get a buffer between NATO or for Ukraine’s resources. But at the cost of crossing horns with NATO and destroying Ukraine. Its infuriatingly pointless.
Left wondering how this will ever end.
It's not like 2 countries battling over control of a third, for Ukraine, it literally is life or death. If they surrender or are beaten, what will life look like for Ukrainian's once Russia takes control? Like Bucha? Mariupol? They all know what has happened in the occupied territories; murder, disappearance, cultural genocide, mass deportations. For Russia defeat would mean some difficult questions for the current leaders and national shame at the failure. More people are prepared to fight to avoid the former, than the latter.Really made me question what Russia have to gain. Invade Ukraine to get a buffer between NATO or for Ukraine’s resources. But at the cost of crossing horns with NATO and destroying Ukraine. Its infuriatingly pointless.
Left wondering how this will ever end.
Puggit said:
That's why they're talking about shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine as they approach the border.
The physics of that are near-on impossible without lasers or other directed energy weapons; interceptor missiles only work if fired from a point between where the missile is and where its going, the nearer to the missile track the better.pingu393 said:
Puggit said:
Lukashenko has apparently announced that the Crocus perpertrators were heading to Belarus, not Ukraine.
Watch out for those windows...
Why would he say that? Has he suddenly grown a pair?Watch out for those windows...
Maybe easier to get a flight out of Belarus back to the Tajikistan as well without drawing as much attention to yourself. Didn't van or car have a Belarus number plate that had been faked to a Ukrainian one?
But, as you say, why is Lukashenko sticking his head above the parapet...!!
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