Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4
Discussion
CivicDuties said:
My son's just come back from backpacking in Thailand/Cambodia. Says Thailand is absolutely rammed with Ruzzians.
Yep. I've been following "Sanctioned Ivan" on Youtube and he's moved to Thaliland.He seems to encounter a lot of other Russians there as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y45rqinshA4
J4CKO said:
Makes you wonder what they are flying on, and the state of them, first post in this vol mentions the state of Russian aviation...
For a mere £1000 you can fly Moscow to Bangkok return on Thai Airways. The same plane might well fly to London the week after. Russia isn't some international pariah except to Europe and the US, the rest of the world is continuing to deal with them as before which is why sanctions have been less effective than expected and the whole Russian economy is simply pivoting to buying Chinese supplied goods, with the deals done in Yen, using companies set up exactly for that purpose. No US dollar involvement means that US enforcement is very limited. Even Western produced good are being supplied to Russia, via intermediary companies.
Condi said:
J4CKO said:
Makes you wonder what they are flying on, and the state of them, first post in this vol mentions the state of Russian aviation...
For a mere £1000 you can fly Moscow to Bangkok return on Thai Airways. The same plane might well fly to London the week after. Russia isn't some international pariah except to Europe and the US, the rest of the world is continuing to deal with them as before which is why sanctions have been less effective than expected and the whole Russian economy is simply pivoting to buying Chinese supplied goods, with the deals done in Yen, using companies set up exactly for that purpose. No US dollar involvement means that US enforcement is very limited. Even Western produced good are being supplied to Russia, via intermediary companies.
Most of the planes are Boeing and Airbus, and spares are reasonably traceable, must be mainly foreign airlines ?
If Putin fails, people are betting on the the further breakup of the Soviet state. China has an eye on parts of Russia that used to be China and Turkey is backing the independence of some states, then there is Chechnya and George amongst others according to some you tube channels I have watched.
isaldiri said:
J4CKO said:
CivicDuties said:
My son's just come back from backpacking in Thailand/Cambodia. Says Thailand is absolutely rammed with Ruzzians.
Makes you wonder what they are flying on, and the state of them, first post in this vol mentions the state of Russian aviation...J4CKO said:
Makes sense, wonder if any Russian carriers are still operating outside Russia ?
Most of the planes are Boeing and Airbus, and spares are reasonably traceable, must be mainly foreign airlines ?
Russian carriers are struggling due to lack of spares, using either their own stocks, parts off older or non-serviceable aircraft, or parts smuggled in via other countries. They do also have their own aircraft, mainly Tupolev's, still flying. Most of the planes are Boeing and Airbus, and spares are reasonably traceable, must be mainly foreign airlines ?
J4CKO said:
Condi said:
J4CKO said:
Makes you wonder what they are flying on, and the state of them, first post in this vol mentions the state of Russian aviation...
For a mere £1000 you can fly Moscow to Bangkok return on Thai Airways. The same plane might well fly to London the week after. Russia isn't some international pariah except to Europe and the US, the rest of the world is continuing to deal with them as before which is why sanctions have been less effective than expected and the whole Russian economy is simply pivoting to buying Chinese supplied goods, with the deals done in Yen, using companies set up exactly for that purpose. No US dollar involvement means that US enforcement is very limited. Even Western produced good are being supplied to Russia, via intermediary companies.
Most of the planes are Boeing and Airbus, and spares are reasonably traceable, must be mainly foreign airlines ?
Digga said:
Makes me very concerned about maintenance though. It is not exceptional for an aircraft to need the odd part or bit of service on loanding. Most usual thing probably being tyres. WTF sort of dtich-finder is getting fitted in Russia?
Airbus and Boeing I am quite reliably told have long ago switched off any comms with the russian fleet (that mainly was leased) so maintenance kind of isn't their problem anymore and entirely up to the russians. I suppose they can source parts to a degree from the usual suspects who obviously also have large fleets but the aircraft manufacturers are pretty good at keeping track of obvious bits.....Rumblestripe said:
For those thinking that all is doom and gloom it is worth listening to this analysis from Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former Commander of U.S. Forces Europe
I hope he’s right but he was saying that Russia had lost the war 6 months ago yet here we are with them advancing still.He was also calling for more US aid back then and seemed really frustrated with the support being provided.
Condi said:
For a mere £1000 you can fly Moscow to Bangkok return on Thai Airways. The same plane might well fly to London the week after.
Russia isn't some international pariah except to Europe and the US, the rest of the world is continuing to deal with them as before which is why sanctions have been less effective than expected and the whole Russian economy is simply pivoting to buying Chinese supplied goods, with the deals done in Yen, using companies set up exactly for that purpose. No US dollar involvement means that US enforcement is very limited. Even Western produced good are being supplied to Russia, via intermediary companies.
I heard on the radio that the UK and western countries are still buying oil from Russia, only it has passed through various hands before it gets into ours. I think the explanation was similar to the oil tankers sail to another country and transfer their oil to other tankers, which we then buy from? Russia isn't some international pariah except to Europe and the US, the rest of the world is continuing to deal with them as before which is why sanctions have been less effective than expected and the whole Russian economy is simply pivoting to buying Chinese supplied goods, with the deals done in Yen, using companies set up exactly for that purpose. No US dollar involvement means that US enforcement is very limited. Even Western produced good are being supplied to Russia, via intermediary companies.
trickywoo said:
Rumblestripe said:
For those thinking that all is doom and gloom it is worth listening to this analysis from Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former Commander of U.S. Forces Europe
I hope he’s right but he was saying that Russia had lost the war 6 months ago yet here we are with them advancing still.He was also calling for more US aid back then and seemed really frustrated with the support being provided.
Unfortunately there will be a lot more killing and dying before this is resolved but I believe that at the end of it Russia will be much diminished on the world stage, perhaps even losing its place on the UN Security Council.
Biggy Stardust said:
Cheib said:
The ICC needs to start charging people lower down the food chain….I am sure there will be detailed knowledge of which units are responsible for these crimes. I would love to know what is stopping the ICC from charging the commanding officers etc.
How would you envisage these charges being enforced, eg arrest & trial?You have to start somewhere and maybe the threat of ICC arrest warrants starts getting some of the lower echelons of the Russian military thinking about long term implications.
Rumblestripe said:
trickywoo said:
Rumblestripe said:
For those thinking that all is doom and gloom it is worth listening to this analysis from Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former Commander of U.S. Forces Europe
I hope he’s right but he was saying that Russia had lost the war 6 months ago yet here we are with them advancing still.He was also calling for more US aid back then and seemed really frustrated with the support being provided.
Unfortunately there will be a lot more killing and dying before this is resolved but I believe that at the end of it Russia will be much diminished on the world stage, perhaps even losing its place on the UN Security Council.
Rumblestripe said:
The Russian "advances" are very limited a field here and there and at huge expense in both blood and metal.
The same is true on both sides.Rumblestripe said:
Ukraine is very big. Even Russia does not have limitless blood to spill
The same is true on both sides.The thing I worry about most is Ukraine running out of people, well before any fancy hardware eventually arrives to help. You can replace metal, but if there's no one to operate it...
Edited by macron on Tuesday 30th April 18:57
The Gauge said:
I heard on the radio that the UK and western countries are still buying oil from Russia, only it has passed through various hands before it gets into ours. I think the explanation was similar to the oil tankers sail to another country and transfer their oil to other tankers, which we then buy from?
Yes, transhipments. From memory we can import the oil directly if it is >70% non Russian (ie less than 30% Russian), but more crucially there is no restriction around importing refined products (petrol, diesel etc), and so a lot of oil is shipped to India and China by boat, refined into petrol and then either frees up other petrol stocks to come here, or is even shipped back to Europe. Similarly with gas, the EU is still a buyer of Russian pipeline gas, and also LNG. macron said:
Rumblestripe said:
The Russian "advances" are very limited a field here and there and at huge expense in both blood and metal.
The same is true on both sides.Rumblestripe said:
Ukraine is very big. Even Russia does not have limitless blood to spill /quote]
The same is true on both sides.The thing I worry about most is Ukraine running out of people, well before any fancy hardware eventually arrives to help. You can replace metal, but if there's no one to operate it...
Losses
Russia is doing the attacking. Military thinking stipulates that you need at least a 3:1 advantage at the point of contact when attacking, possibly more when attacking well designed and established defensive lines. The casualty rates for the attacker will always be higher (even assuming equality of weaponry and competency therewith) if there is an advantage in weaponry that will tip one way or the other. Flexibility of doctrine and superior tactical discipline and command also give an advantage to Ukraine. You also have the motivation of conscripts told to run towards a line of trees c.f. volunteers fighting for the homeland. Of course fatigue is a worry not just in the supply of Western military aid (though the EU and others have stepped up and now the US is back in the game) that should not be a factor for at least a couple of years. Ukraine are much more careful with their squishy assets but as you say they are not inexhaustible.
We'll see but I think most analysts now agree that Russia cannot win and importantly, politicians agree that they cannot be allowed to.
Rumblestripe said:
We'll see but I think most analysts now agree that Russia cannot win and importantly, politicians agree that they cannot be allowed to.
Many analysts also say Ukraine cannot win. They don't have the manpower or resources to push Russia out of their very heavily defended positions. Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff