Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4
Discussion
What has Putin achieved so far.
He knows that NATO is divided. Italy Hungary and Turkey can veto any serious action. Trump may play the “don't call me” card
He has built a strong alliance with China and Iran, who, successfully got their proxies to kick-off in Gaza and Lebanon. He has queued North Korea as his loony of first resort.
He still has a huge proportion of the population in the countryside behind him, plus zero internal opposition. They now truly believe that the West is a threat to their wellbeing.
He has moved his manufacturing capacity into war preparations
He still has revenue from hydrocarbons
He has got the US and a chunk of Europe to commit their army surplus stores to Ukraine.
Perfectly demonstrated just how completely useless the UN actually is. He understands their games.
Georgia is about to be taken back under his wing. EU stamping its feet will achieve nothing.
What has the West achieved
Not a lot really, still have not woken up, or smelled the coffee.
They now know that their tanks and helicopters are very vulnerable to drones, so a strategic rethink is needed by SHAPE. The tactics originally pursued by Russia, showed what the failure looks like.
Had NATO stated clearly that invading Ukraine was not on, and committing a lot of air cover to help them, it might have been sufficient deterrent, the main point of defence spending. It would also probably saved a lot of lives and show Putin to be exactly what he is. We can scoff at Macron saying that we now need to send troops, but the biggest smile will be on Putin’s face, because he is certain that we wont.
This is a long war, with an uncertain outcome, that could very quickly go global and or nuclear.
He knows that NATO is divided. Italy Hungary and Turkey can veto any serious action. Trump may play the “don't call me” card
He has built a strong alliance with China and Iran, who, successfully got their proxies to kick-off in Gaza and Lebanon. He has queued North Korea as his loony of first resort.
He still has a huge proportion of the population in the countryside behind him, plus zero internal opposition. They now truly believe that the West is a threat to their wellbeing.
He has moved his manufacturing capacity into war preparations
He still has revenue from hydrocarbons
He has got the US and a chunk of Europe to commit their army surplus stores to Ukraine.
Perfectly demonstrated just how completely useless the UN actually is. He understands their games.
Georgia is about to be taken back under his wing. EU stamping its feet will achieve nothing.
What has the West achieved
Not a lot really, still have not woken up, or smelled the coffee.
They now know that their tanks and helicopters are very vulnerable to drones, so a strategic rethink is needed by SHAPE. The tactics originally pursued by Russia, showed what the failure looks like.
Had NATO stated clearly that invading Ukraine was not on, and committing a lot of air cover to help them, it might have been sufficient deterrent, the main point of defence spending. It would also probably saved a lot of lives and show Putin to be exactly what he is. We can scoff at Macron saying that we now need to send troops, but the biggest smile will be on Putin’s face, because he is certain that we wont.
This is a long war, with an uncertain outcome, that could very quickly go global and or nuclear.
rdjohn said:
This is a long war, with an uncertain outcome, that could very quickly go global and or nuclear.
Not a chance.They've lost close to 500k troops and have spent the majority of this war in retreat, gaining and holding very little ground.
Their navy and air force have been severely depleted by a country that has neither.
rdjohn said:
What has Putin achieved so far.
What has the West achieved
'The West' has decimated much of Russia's armed forces, confiscated hundreds of billions of dollars from them, learned exactly how Russia would conduct ground offensives, whilst simultaneously testing our own equipment & methods, all without losing a single NATO life.What has the West achieved
rdjohn said:
What has Putin achieved so far.
He knows that NATO is divided. Italy Hungary and Turkey can veto any serious action. Trump may play the “don't call me” card
He has built a strong alliance with China and Iran, who, successfully got their proxies to kick-off in Gaza and Lebanon. He has queued North Korea as his loony of first resort.
He still has a huge proportion of the population in the countryside behind him, plus zero internal opposition. They now truly believe that the West is a threat to their wellbeing.
He has moved his manufacturing capacity into war preparations
He still has revenue from hydrocarbons
He has got the US and a chunk of Europe to commit their army surplus stores to Ukraine.
Perfectly demonstrated just how completely useless the UN actually is. He understands their games.
Georgia is about to be taken back under his wing. EU stamping its feet will achieve nothing.
What has the West achieved
Not a lot really, still have not woken up, or smelled the coffee.
They now know that their tanks and helicopters are very vulnerable to drones, so a strategic rethink is needed by SHAPE. The tactics originally pursued by Russia, showed what the failure looks like.
Had NATO stated clearly that invading Ukraine was not on, and committing a lot of air cover to help them, it might have been sufficient deterrent, the main point of defence spending. It would also probably saved a lot of lives and show Putin to be exactly what he is. We can scoff at Macron saying that we now need to send troops, but the biggest smile will be on Putin’s face, because he is certain that we wont.
This is a long war, with an uncertain outcome, that could very quickly go global and or nuclear.
This war is a catastrophe for Putin and Russia and they know it. China isn't a ally, China are fleecing Russia and they don't even recognise the occupied areas as Russian. Before this war the Russians regarded Militant Islam and China as their two biggest threats with no other major threats whatsoever. So chumming up to China is not good for Russia!He knows that NATO is divided. Italy Hungary and Turkey can veto any serious action. Trump may play the “don't call me” card
He has built a strong alliance with China and Iran, who, successfully got their proxies to kick-off in Gaza and Lebanon. He has queued North Korea as his loony of first resort.
He still has a huge proportion of the population in the countryside behind him, plus zero internal opposition. They now truly believe that the West is a threat to their wellbeing.
He has moved his manufacturing capacity into war preparations
He still has revenue from hydrocarbons
He has got the US and a chunk of Europe to commit their army surplus stores to Ukraine.
Perfectly demonstrated just how completely useless the UN actually is. He understands their games.
Georgia is about to be taken back under his wing. EU stamping its feet will achieve nothing.
What has the West achieved
Not a lot really, still have not woken up, or smelled the coffee.
They now know that their tanks and helicopters are very vulnerable to drones, so a strategic rethink is needed by SHAPE. The tactics originally pursued by Russia, showed what the failure looks like.
Had NATO stated clearly that invading Ukraine was not on, and committing a lot of air cover to help them, it might have been sufficient deterrent, the main point of defence spending. It would also probably saved a lot of lives and show Putin to be exactly what he is. We can scoff at Macron saying that we now need to send troops, but the biggest smile will be on Putin’s face, because he is certain that we wont.
This is a long war, with an uncertain outcome, that could very quickly go global and or nuclear.
Everything Putin is doing is about Personal survival, in no way is Putin thinking "Great, my gamble paid off.". His gamble exploded in his face. He's wrecked Russia's economy and his only path to survival is to become seriously authoritarian.
It's not a zero sum game. This war can be a disaster for Ukraine, but also a disaster for Russia and it is.
rdjohn said:
What has Putin achieved so far.
He knows that NATO is divided. Italy Hungary and Turkey can veto any serious action. Trump may play the “don't call me” cardHe has managed to accelerate the expansion of NATO to include Finland and Sweden so that he now shares a land border of many hundreds of miles with NATO aligned countries. Finland and Sweden would really like to take back parts of their countries "absorbed" by Russia in centuries past. He would struggle to prevent the annexation of Kaliningrad.
He has built a strong alliance with China and Iran, who, successfully got their proxies to kick-off in Gaza and Lebanon. He has queued North Korea as his loony of first resort.
China is not a strong ally of anyone. China is very much looking to what it can get for China (they are supplying things like the ridiculous "golf buggies" we see being used to transport troops into action), NK is a useful supplier of low grade munitions. Iran has largely shut up shop after being tapped on the shoulder by Israel and the US.
He still has a huge proportion of the population in the countryside behind him, plus zero internal opposition. They now truly believe that the West is a threat to their wellbeing.
No. Russians are not stupid, yes they are poorly informed but he has tried to keep the majority of deaths distributed among Federated states rather than Russia itself. A lot of native Russians of "fighting" age have legged it abroad, many may never return. They are going to have a huge imbalance of females in their population when this is over.
He has moved his manufacturing capacity into war preparations
They do not have a capacity to manufacture at anything like the rate the west can.
He still has revenue from hydrocarbons
Much reduced and whilst the sanctions are not preventing him acquiring things he needs to fight that does not include high tech weaponry. He cannot replace the losses in his Black Sea fleet a lot of warship production was sub contracted to... Ukraine (and Poland)
He has got the US and a chunk of Europe to commit their army surplus stores to Ukraine.
This is bad because... I don't see you logic here.
They are getting the newer stuff too. It is coming through now. The current offensives are to try to take advantage of the delay in getting everything were it needs to be. The GOP has blood on their hands with the political games they have played at the behest of Trump.
Perfectly demonstrated just how completely useless the UN actually is. He understands their games.
Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council and has a veto. UN was always toothless where the superpowers are concerned.
Georgia is about to be taken back under his wing. EU stamping its feet will achieve nothing.
Is it? Which troops will he use to do that? The 300k that are not enough to take Kharkiv? The borderguards with China or the NATO countries? Georgian people have long held a resentment at their treatment by the Russians. Chechnya may erupt again with (apparently imminent) demise of Kadyrov. Quite a few other former Soviet states see the weakness of Russia and may well test the water with new allegiances. EU membership is a very big carrot for those countries in the region.
daveco said:
Not a chance.
They've lost close to 500k troops and have spent the majority of this war in retreat, gaining and holding very little ground.
Their navy and air force have been severely depleted by a country that has neither.
For a country that has gained very little ground, Russia seems to be holding on to quite a fairly large chunk of eastern and southern ukraine compared to Feb2022.....They've lost close to 500k troops and have spent the majority of this war in retreat, gaining and holding very little ground.
Their navy and air force have been severely depleted by a country that has neither.
rdjohn said:
What has Putin achieved so far.
He knows that NATO is divided. Italy Hungary and Turkey can veto any serious action. Trump may play the “don't call me” card
He has built a strong alliance with China and Iran, who, successfully got their proxies to kick-off in Gaza and Lebanon. He has queued North Korea as his loony of first resort.
He still has a huge proportion of the population in the countryside behind him, plus zero internal opposition. They now truly believe that the West is a threat to their wellbeing.
He has moved his manufacturing capacity into war preparations
He still has revenue from hydrocarbons
He has got the US and a chunk of Europe to commit their army surplus stores to Ukraine.
Perfectly demonstrated just how completely useless the UN actually is. He understands their games.
Georgia is about to be taken back under his wing. EU stamping its feet will achieve nothing.
What has the West achieved
Not a lot really, still have not woken up, or smelled the coffee.
They now know that their tanks and helicopters are very vulnerable to drones, so a strategic rethink is needed by SHAPE. The tactics originally pursued by Russia, showed what the failure looks like.
Had NATO stated clearly that invading Ukraine was not on, and committing a lot of air cover to help them, it might have been sufficient deterrent, the main point of defence spending. It would also probably saved a lot of lives and show Putin to be exactly what he is. We can scoff at Macron saying that we now need to send troops, but the biggest smile will be on Putin’s face, because he is certain that we wont.
This is a long war, with an uncertain outcome, that could very quickly go global and or nuclear.
Load of bHe knows that NATO is divided. Italy Hungary and Turkey can veto any serious action. Trump may play the “don't call me” card
He has built a strong alliance with China and Iran, who, successfully got their proxies to kick-off in Gaza and Lebanon. He has queued North Korea as his loony of first resort.
He still has a huge proportion of the population in the countryside behind him, plus zero internal opposition. They now truly believe that the West is a threat to their wellbeing.
He has moved his manufacturing capacity into war preparations
He still has revenue from hydrocarbons
He has got the US and a chunk of Europe to commit their army surplus stores to Ukraine.
Perfectly demonstrated just how completely useless the UN actually is. He understands their games.
Georgia is about to be taken back under his wing. EU stamping its feet will achieve nothing.
What has the West achieved
Not a lot really, still have not woken up, or smelled the coffee.
They now know that their tanks and helicopters are very vulnerable to drones, so a strategic rethink is needed by SHAPE. The tactics originally pursued by Russia, showed what the failure looks like.
Had NATO stated clearly that invading Ukraine was not on, and committing a lot of air cover to help them, it might have been sufficient deterrent, the main point of defence spending. It would also probably saved a lot of lives and show Putin to be exactly what he is. We can scoff at Macron saying that we now need to send troops, but the biggest smile will be on Putin’s face, because he is certain that we wont.
This is a long war, with an uncertain outcome, that could very quickly go global and or nuclear.
ks.NATO is less divided than it was before, and has expanded with two new members on/near russias borders.
NATO members can't veto action, they could decide not to involve themselves, but that might result in them being booted or ignored if they ever needed NATO.
I wouldn't call China or Iran strong allies of russia. They are using russia for their own ends.
Support for Putin within russia is an unknown, but I certainly wouldn't bet that he is any more or less popular now than he was before.
Revenues from hydrocarbons have shrunk. Economic activity outside of military manufacturing is down. Currency reserves dwindling. Foreign reserves frozen.
The west have given mostly old stock nearing decommissioning time to Ukraine. Russia has sacrificed most of it's best troops and equipment, and it is in no position to replace them.
Georgia may end up back under russian influence, but it doesn't seem the people are happy about that, so not quite the win you paint it as.
Depending on what the collective West wanted from this war, they may have done exactly what they wanted.
personally, I'd rather have seen russia taken apart at a much earlier opportunity.
But, if they had wanted russia to run into a series of brick walls and destroy most of their military equipment, including most of their soviet stockpile, then they've managed exactly that. It is suspicious how the Western aid seems to dry up and then come in waves just in time to inflict the most damage on russia when they're on the attack.
I'd certainly not state that everything is rosy, but to try and say that russia have achieved anything is a joke.
They set out thinking they could take Kyiv in 3 days.
More than two years on and russia have occupied an additional ~17% of Ukraine, on top of the ~10% they had previously annexed. At the cost of a huge number of tanks, IFVs, APCs, vehicles, artillery, cruise missiles, 1/3 of the black sea fleet, and 100's of thousands of their own killed or wounded.
They now have NATO all along the russian/Finnish border. The whole of the Baltic sea is now surrounded by NATO, making russias Baltic fleet much less useful.
And this is all before the West has started taking this seriously.
How long would russia last if the West suddenly supplied any military kit Ukraine asked for?
How would russia source any components for it's military production if the US introduced secondary sanctions for any country supplying russia?
russia is flailing around with little success, and the West haven't even done much yet other than supply Ukraine with it's old hand me down surplus equipment.
Edited by spookly on Wednesday 15th May 16:07
rdjohn said:
He knows that NATO is divided. Italy Hungary and Turkey can veto any serious action. Trump may play the “don't call me” card
While they can influence deployment of NATO common equipment or use of NATO reserve material, they have no influence on individual NATO states which are free to do more or less what they like. As it is NATO AEW and reconnaissance aircraft are in use watching what's going on in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. Finland and Sweden have joined as a result of the war, increasing NATO strength significantly, and understandably Moldova and Georgia are quite keen to join also, albeit both have no chance of being more than partner states while their territory is occupied by russian-shaped cuckoos.JCB risk going on the "list of utter fking s" if this is true.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/...
king s" if this is true.https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/...
macron said:
JCB risk going on the "list of utter fking s" if this is true.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/...
They already were, the massive Brexit tw@s that they are. I expect they're desperately trying to recover some income after shilling for that load of old sking s" if this is true.https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/...
t and it biting everyone on the harris. Great products, horrible business.isaldiri said:
daveco said:
Not a chance.
They've lost close to 500k troops and have spent the majority of this war in retreat, gaining and holding very little ground.
Their navy and air force have been severely depleted by a country that has neither.
For a country that has gained very little ground, Russia seems to be holding on to quite a fairly large chunk of eastern and southern ukraine compared to Feb2022.....They've lost close to 500k troops and have spent the majority of this war in retreat, gaining and holding very little ground.
Their navy and air force have been severely depleted by a country that has neither.
macron said:
JCB risk going on the "list of utter fking s" if this is true.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/...
One of my biggest regrets in recent years was meeting Bamford (JCB owner) and saving him a substantial amount of money. He was a complete arse. I’m entirely unsurprised to hear that JCB was still supplying equipment and parts to Russia. king s" if this is true.https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/...
Of course, it’s Schillings “reputation management”, the legal pitbull to the rich and infamous, who represents JCB. This law firm sues journalists and obtains super-injunctions (which cannot even be reported). They threatened UK retailers with libel if they sold a book written by two Wall Street Journal reporters about a Malaysian wanted for his alleged role in a $4bn fraud - after being hired by the same alleged criminal billionaire.
isaldiri said:
For a country that has gained very little ground, Russia seems to be holding on to quite a fairly large chunk of eastern and southern ukraine compared to Feb2022.....
In February 2022 they were thought of as the world's second most capable military. Two years into their three day special operation they're struggling to encroach into a small portion of Ukraine. This started with them thinking they could take Kiev in 48 hours.
Digga said:
Cheib said:
I think there is close to Zero chance of any kind of coalition sending troops in...whether it is Estonia or France it willl have to be individual countries.
It could be that subsequent events - what happens to the troops of those individual countires -may eventually be a catalyst for wider participation. If not coalitions, then just more countries.Some countries are also talking about trying to establish a NATO operated “no fly zone” 70 km in to Ukraine to act as a kind of buffer foe Poland, Romania etc. The idea would be they would perform a similar role to Britain/US did when Iran launched those missiles at Israel. Two hopes of that going ahead….
daveco said:
isaldiri said:
daveco said:
Not a chance.
They've lost close to 500k troops and have spent the majority of this war in retreat, gaining and holding very little ground.
Their navy and air force have been severely depleted by a country that has neither.
For a country that has gained very little ground, Russia seems to be holding on to quite a fairly large chunk of eastern and southern ukraine compared to Feb2022.....They've lost close to 500k troops and have spent the majority of this war in retreat, gaining and holding very little ground.
Their navy and air force have been severely depleted by a country that has neither.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
The examples of the gains that Russia have made in the last 6 months have been exaggerated.
What is interesting is that Russia seems to have learned some lessons and are adapting. From shrouded tanks to coordinated ballistic missile attacks to drone countermeasures. This is illustrative that they are learning. Its taken them a couple of years to do this, but they are learning. Unfortunately there are other areas where they are just as dumb as ever - from massed troop groups near the frontline to utterly insane attacks across no-mans-land without suitable support.
From what I looked at the other day though, Russia is back up to 1500 to 2000 reported personnel losses per day again. This is not the breakthrough action that might get reported. This is slaughter at a scale we havent seen for a long time.
Slowboathome said:
isaldiri said:
For a country that has gained very little ground, Russia seems to be holding on to quite a fairly large chunk of eastern and southern ukraine compared to Feb2022.....
In February 2022 they were thought of as the world's second most capable military. Two years into their three day special operation they're struggling to encroach into a small portion of Ukraine. This started with them thinking they could take Kiev in 48 hours.
off_again said:
daveco said:
isaldiri said:
daveco said:
Not a chance.
They've lost close to 500k troops and have spent the majority of this war in retreat, gaining and holding very little ground.
Their navy and air force have been severely depleted by a country that has neither.
For a country that has gained very little ground, Russia seems to be holding on to quite a fairly large chunk of eastern and southern ukraine compared to Feb2022.....They've lost close to 500k troops and have spent the majority of this war in retreat, gaining and holding very little ground.
Their navy and air force have been severely depleted by a country that has neither.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
The examples of the gains that Russia have made in the last 6 months have been exaggerated.
What is interesting is that Russia seems to have learned some lessons and are adapting. From shrouded tanks to coordinated ballistic missile attacks to drone countermeasures. This is illustrative that they are learning. Its taken them a couple of years to do this, but they are learning. Unfortunately there are other areas where they are just as dumb as ever - from massed troop groups near the frontline to utterly insane attacks across no-mans-land without suitable support.
From what I looked at the other day though, Russia is back up to 1500 to 2000 reported personnel losses per day again. This is not the breakthrough action that might get reported. This is slaughter at a scale we havent seen for a long time.
halo34 said:
Biggy Stardust said:
Biggy just suggested that he's talking about stuff that doesn't match reality.
What that russia may roll into Ukraine at some point - or rather slowly make their way inwards in the face of less opposition?isaldiri said:
However inept and incapable the russian armed forces have proven, it doesn't change the fact that they did take a significant amount of territory. Given they did lose a big chunk in late autumn 2022 but still hold on to significantly more ground than pre Feb2022, i'd struggle to say that 'Russia has gained very little ground'.
Whilst not entirely inaccurate, it is a rather semantic 'splitting hairs' interpretation, but hopefully it makes you feel good. isaldiri said:
Slowboathome said:
isaldiri said:
For a country that has gained very little ground, Russia seems to be holding on to quite a fairly large chunk of eastern and southern ukraine compared to Feb2022.....
In February 2022 they were thought of as the world's second most capable military. Two years into their three day special operation they're struggling to encroach into a small portion of Ukraine. This started with them thinking they could take Kiev in 48 hours.
However, a considerable amount of that territory seized in Feb / Mar 2022 was recovered and by Nov 2022, this continued as Ukraine continued to advance. What we have seen in the last few years is that Russia has completely failed to take advantage of the seized territories and even through multiple failed advances, it is remained broadly similar.
So yeah, if you use your timelines, yes you are technically correct. However, given that this is / was the second biggest and strongest military in the world, has worked on a continuing campaign to undermine Ukraine AND launched a massive attack in Feb, you would expect this to be the case. As a metric to suggest that Russia is somehow succeeding in its original objectives, its way off. They thought that they would take Kiev in 3 days, would have total control of Ukraine in weeks and an imposed leadership would have it totally aligned with Russia and Putin in a month or two. They have completely failed on all of these objectives.
But do check out this link:
https://stories.state.gov/what-is-a-special-milita...
Just to remind everyone about what Putin and Russia said at the start of this SMO and what they actually did.
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