Global depression?

[Digga]

fido said:

Wondering what's the best indirect trade to make - short oil or global equities.

Short on Lange Lovers.

[Crusoe]

Some scary looking graphs near the bottom of this http://www.cpb.nl/sites/default/files/cijfer/CPB%2...

Expecting every economy to grow by encouraging people to spend more on credit was never going to end well anyway so a bit of contraction might not be a bad thing in the long term, unless you are a Chinese manufacturer of cheap consumer products.

[fido]

Digga said:

Short on Lange Lovers.

Funny you should say that. I was in HK a few weeks ago, and the really swanky hotels (not the £200 per night motels I stay in) were surrounded by the Chelsea Tractors. You do get the feeling it's like Ireland in the mid 2000s.

[tescorank]

Have a friend who's a retail analyst in China says there's shopping mall now for every 30k people & problem is lots of people but only 5pc can afford to go in them, best airports/trains/roads he reckons 18 months to the crash.

[Digga]

fido said:

Digga said:

Short on Lange Lovers.

Funny you should say that. I was in HK a few weeks ago, and the really swanky hotels (not the £200 per night motels I stay in) were surrounded by the Chelsea Tractors. You do get the feeling it's like Ireland in the mid 2000s.

JLR is now owned and run by Blingdians; the ethos and gameplan is based now on a broken model, namely, cars for wealthy BRICS residents. None of those markets will continue as they were in the last 10 years and, shifting focus, they've wrecked what class and cachet the marques had in the UK. All IMHO.

Defender is gone. Full-fat Range Rover is too big and bloated for real, everyday British use. UK dealerships have morphed into pink-n-chrome poof's palaces.

[Digga]

In the 90s, the Koreans also had a further problem in that the Chaebols were cross-guaranteeing one another's debts - a defacto shadow banking system.

[phil1979]

Digga said:

None of the Chinese yet make the big mining kit, IMHO it is this which is hitting CAT hardest

They do, and the likes of Rio Tinto have been running them for a few years:

http://www.theajmonline.com.au/mining_news/news/20...

[Digga]

phil1979 said:

Digga said:

None of the Chinese yet make the big mining kit, IMHO it is this which is hitting CAT hardest

They do, and the likes of Rio Tinto have been running them for a few years:

http://www.theajmonline.com.au/mining_news/news/20...

Hauling, but not digging. Yet...

[phil1979]

Yet, being the key word. Worth noting that all the big western manufacturers of heavy kit have either domestic manufacturing and/or distribution channels in China, so the CATs of the world are no longer really classed as outsiders there anymore.

As an aside, SP Angel's daily newsletter always gives interesting info on China / mining. From today's:

China – Further stimulus likely as Chinese stocks continue to fall
• Investors are still deleveraging, repaying stock borrowing and margin in China.
• Earnings from Industrial companies fell through June indicating the impact of falling demand and the Renminbi which has been following the US dollar higher.
• Chinese banks are thought to be in a generally better position than in the US/UK when Lehman Bros went down indicating less potential for total economic collapse though we are still concerned over the impact on the Chinese economy of such a volatile equity market.
• The fall in confidence in China’s economy and with consumers is likely to depress domestic demand and slow the pace of investment.

[KarlMac]

I used to work for a Tier 2 supplier to all the big agri/construction companies. This was always known to be a bubble. Big infrastructure projects for world cup/olympics in various BRIC s were stoking demand that was never going to continue.

Not sure why its a shock to them.

[RobinBanks]

Digga said:

Full-fat Range Rover is too big and bloated for real, everyday British use.

All the other points in that are open to debate, but plenty of people manage to go to work and do their shopping and take their children to school and do everything else that people might do day to day in a Range Rover.

[Digga]

RobinBanks said:

All the other points in that are open to debate, but plenty of people manage to go to work and do their shopping and take their children to school and do everything else that people might do day to day in a Range Rover.

A long time ago, I had a 4.6 P38 Vogue. In that, you could get into and out of it in any city-centre multi-storey. There is no way you can do this with the later models with any degree of ease.