Oldham West and Royton by-election
Discussion
Esseesse said:
An interesting post from an Oldham Labour campaigner
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/3tq9f...
The point is that all this trendy leftie luvvie Islington crap is as out of touch with core Labour people in northern constituencies as "Eton Tory toffs"; blokes down the pub up here couldn't give a flying fk about gay marriage, equal rights, carbon footprints and so on. The other thing is that the last thing they want to see is someone who won't use military force or especially stand up to Islamics and wants some kind of "love in". There are two entirely different sets of Labour party it appears to me. Ukip appeals to these old "working class" Labour types and Conservatives at the same time. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/3tq9f...
Campaigner said:
...Conclusion labour have huge problems with their working class vote from what I have seen. These results were essentially reflected across the board by the 100 other campaigners over the last 2 weeks. Ukip is more popular than Farage though very few actively dislike him. But Corbyn has completely turned off his vote.
Edit: Also I read in another post in a more general thread on Reddit that Labour are bussing in canvassers which is apparently a bad sign.The other thing to remember as well is that there's a large Asian population in Oldham and don't be surprised how many of them actually vote Conservative - same here in Rochdale. They're a core source of votes and actually are often the candidate - as was Rochdale's UKIP candidate in the GE.
Nevertheless I think Labour will hold the seat.
On paper UKIP have a decent chance of causing a minor upset here however they are struggling financially if recent reports are true so can they even afford to fight this by-election effectively? Their national media presence is also significantly lower than it was during the 2 by-elections which they won last year.
These are the odds are betfair if anyone is interested.
These are the odds are betfair if anyone is interested.
BlackLabel said:
On paper UKIP have a decent chance of causing a minor upset here however they are struggling financially if recent reports are true so can they even afford to fight this by-election effectively? Their national media presence is also significantly lower than it was during the 2 by-elections which they won last year.
These are the odds are betfair if anyone is interested.
The other issue is that Ukip and Conservative damage each other - I'd like to see those odds if there was no Conservative candidate.These are the odds are betfair if anyone is interested.
Dog Star said:
BlackLabel said:
On paper UKIP have a decent chance of causing a minor upset here however they are struggling financially if recent reports are true so can they even afford to fight this by-election effectively? Their national media presence is also significantly lower than it was during the 2 by-elections which they won last year.
These are the odds are betfair if anyone is interested.
The other issue is that Ukip and Conservative damage each other - I'd like to see those odds if there was no Conservative candidate.These are the odds are betfair if anyone is interested.
If labour lose the seat, or even win with just a few votes, I reckon there will either be a concerted effort to unseat Corbyn, difficult I believe with the party rules, or a number of labour moderate mps jumping ship, either to start their own party, as they have done in the past, or to join with the liberals, which they have done in the past, more or less at the same time.
The mps will be looking to their income of course, as they mainly do and one of the safest seats in the country being/nearly lost will worry them.
A new labour lite might well take with it a number of financial backers to labour. Some have already jumped ship.
With the need to keep to the left removed due to the collapse of the Scottish labour party, there is a gap in the middle in England.
Scotland has turned into a one party state and that normally means there are vacancies.
The mps will be looking to their income of course, as they mainly do and one of the safest seats in the country being/nearly lost will worry them.
A new labour lite might well take with it a number of financial backers to labour. Some have already jumped ship.
With the need to keep to the left removed due to the collapse of the Scottish labour party, there is a gap in the middle in England.
Scotland has turned into a one party state and that normally means there are vacancies.
steveT350C said:
Labour with 45%? Don't think its that close.Mind you, according to Farage: "the contest was now so “close” that he would be throwing all the party’s available campaign resources at winning,"That's an extra 42p.
Can't see it myself.
Derek Smith said:
steveT350C said:
Labour with 45%? Don't think its that close.Mind you, according to Farage: "the contest was now so “close” that he would be throwing all the party’s available campaign resources at winning,"That's an extra 42p.
Can't see it myself.
It's going to be close!
Derek Smith said:
steveT350C said:
Labour with 45%? Don't think its that close.Mind you, according to Farage: "the contest was now so “close” that he would be throwing all the party’s available campaign resources at winning,"That's an extra 42p.
Can't see it myself.
Win a seat which Meacher had held for 45 years?
45 YEARS!!
Even I can't see it myself.
However, should UKIP win this, make no mistake, it will be a by-election victory of the most epic proportions.
I think Labour will still win this but it will be after many re-counts and by about 100 votes. I believe that if UKIP had the financial and media presence that they had in the run up to GE, they would probably win.
However if the polls are as out of wack as they were at the GE, who knows?
Thursday night could be very interesting.
However if the polls are as out of wack as they were at the GE, who knows?
Thursday night could be very interesting.
dandarez said:
In the GE Labour's Meacher had over 4,000 votes 'more' than the combined total of all the other candidates standing.
Win a seat which Meacher had held for 45 years?
45 YEARS!!
Even I can't see it myself.
However, should UKIP win this, make no mistake, it will be a by-election victory of the most epic proportions.
Meacher was a popular constituency MP; the new guy appears to be a troughing council arse; there's room for an upset with the Corbyn factor in play.Win a seat which Meacher had held for 45 years?
45 YEARS!!
Even I can't see it myself.
However, should UKIP win this, make no mistake, it will be a by-election victory of the most epic proportions.
I may be reading too much into this, but Comrade Corbyns office start rumours about how close this is when, in fact it is an easy labour seat...
...wo when they do win, its all down to corbyn, you see, strong leader, what the public want, you see..
Oh, and anyone who disagrees will be re-educated.
...wo when they do win, its all down to corbyn, you see, strong leader, what the public want, you see..
Oh, and anyone who disagrees will be re-educated.
hidetheelephants said:
dandarez said:
In the GE Labour's Meacher had over 4,000 votes 'more' than the combined total of all the other candidates standing.
Win a seat which Meacher had held for 45 years?
45 YEARS!!
Even I can't see it myself.
However, should UKIP win this, make no mistake, it will be a by-election victory of the most epic proportions.
Meacher was a popular constituency MP; the new guy appears to be a troughing council arse; there's room for an upset with the Corbyn factor in play.Win a seat which Meacher had held for 45 years?
45 YEARS!!
Even I can't see it myself.
However, should UKIP win this, make no mistake, it will be a by-election victory of the most epic proportions.
After looking at his latest tweet page (wearing a Kipper purple tie to confuse) he's praising his activists all out in dreadful weather today, I'm thinking Farage could be grinning from ear to ear again on Thurs evening!
(WARNING! if you view McMahon tweets, one D. Abbot has been in Oldham today ).
https://twitter.com/CllrJimMcMahon?ref_src=twsrc%5...
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