Is Boris sh*tting himself?
Discussion
Mr_B said:
Has he spoke today ? He would do well to come out and actually say something along with the rest.
I disagree. I think the best thing all round now is for no one from British Gov to say anything on the issue for the next few weeks. Let the EU piffle mongers vent their spleens that someone has made a stand and decided to not "invest" the £10BN ad infinitum, and their gravy train may come under scrutiny once and for all, and get on with quietly outing things in place for the new leadership and negotiating team. Let the media go round sticking microphones in the faces of people who are unhappy about it all, and let UK Gov maintain a dignified silence for a few weeks.
I don't think Boris really wanted to win... I think he wanted to be the noble loser and set himself up to be the anti establishment candidate when Cameron stepped down.
I'm sure he is s
tting himself now..... he is likely to become PM but he has a total mess to sort out with the exit negotiation. On top of that he has made big promises about putting 350m a week into the NHS and given the impression he can freeze immigration overnight.
I'm sure he is s
tting himself now..... he is likely to become PM but he has a total mess to sort out with the exit negotiation. On top of that he has made big promises about putting 350m a week into the NHS and given the impression he can freeze immigration overnight. When Boris defected I had a bit of a tinfoil moment that him and Gove were Cameron's trojans, and went in to scupper the leave campaign. Farage got pushed to one side and Boris and chums seemed to be doing a fairly poor job for the leave campaign, which all seemed to support the theory. I think they're as surprised as anyone at the result.
mjb1 said:
When Boris defected I had a bit of a tinfoil moment that him and Gove were Cameron's trojans, and went in to scupper the leave campaign. Farage got pushed to one side and Boris and chums seemed to be doing a fairly poor job for the leave campaign, which all seemed to support the theory. I think they're as surprised as anyone at the result.
I posted in some lost brexit thread that Cameron secretly wanted Brexit and was doing a deliberately crap job, coming out with things like war in Europe and Osborne's £4K poorer claim, forcing the Brexiters into even more mental claims. Honestly what a s
t campaign by both sides. Britain is fked if these guys are the best we have.vonuber said:
It makes sense though. We remain part of the free trade area, keep passporting rights etc.
We will have to comply with EU regs to sell stuff to them anyway.
It's already being hinted at - so basically nothing will change. How droll.
Except we won't have a say in how the EU is run. We'll actually have put ourselves in the very position that the Leave campaign thought/pretended we were in before the referendum. Utter madness.We will have to comply with EU regs to sell stuff to them anyway.
It's already being hinted at - so basically nothing will change. How droll.
That post above is worth pasting
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.
vonuber said:
I posted this on the results thread:
Dear God!vonuber said:
I'm really coming around to the idea that gove et al never thought that leave would win by 4% (the farage it's not settled margin) and thus don't have a clue what to do.
I suspect they thought they could have used a close vote to put pressure on cameron. Now they know the next leader is basically getting a huge poisoned chalice.
I suspect we will go the Norway route to be honest.
I suspect they thought they could have used a close vote to put pressure on cameron. Now they know the next leader is basically getting a huge poisoned chalice.
I suspect we will go the Norway route to be honest.
We will not go down the Norway route.
Tusk, Schulz and Junker are all absolutely crapping themselves.
Their instincts are to threaten the UK to discourage Denmark, France and Ireland from following the glorious UK.
Unfortunatley, for these three idiots, Merkel and Hollande will not stand for trade restrictions on the UK. Why not? I hear you ask. The Germans export a fifth of their car production to us. We take a huge amount of French wine.
Yesterday, the BBC wailed that the FTSE fell by 7%. Actually, by the close, the FTSE100 had lost 3%. It was still 2%, or 115 points, above last Friday.
On the other hand, BMW, Daimler(Mercedes) and Volkswagen all lost 8%. The French stock market also lost 8%. The Spanish market lost 12%.
The EU will want to negotiate with us, not the other way around.
Our opening position should be polite. We will offer them a 1% reduction on car imports (i.e. 9% instead of 10%) if they will apply a rate of zero % to our car exports.
If they don't think that this is fair, then we can demonstrate "freedom of movement" by showing them the way back to Heathrow.
I'm not very political, but if I were Prime Minister, this is how I would play it.
I wouldn't go to Brussels. I would, reluctantly, agree to a short meeting in Downing Street. However, it would be pointless to have a meeting with just one of the presidents, so I would insist that they all came together. I would also allow them the honour of using the door knocker on No 10. I don't care if they stand in line while they knock at the door, or if they stand in a huddle.
The doorman would be under strict instructions not to keep them waiting for more than 10, 20, or maybe 30 seconds. After all, this may appear on television, and it might be rude if they are kept waiting for too long.
I take it that you get my gist.
We are not going the Norway route. We are going the British route.
glazbagun said:
I must say that I enjoyed the way the SNP were skewered for having no plan B on currency. But they look like preppers waiting for the zombie apocalypse compared to the government right now.
The Tories are now leaderless and deeply split, Labour also de facto leaderless and deeply split, the Lib Dems are just a memory, and UKIP are morons.
We could really do with some competent government at the moment. Oh well.
don4l said:
Our opening position should be polite. We will offer them a 1% reduction on car imports (i.e. 9% instead of 10%) if they will apply a rate of zero % to our car exports.
But they're not going to be negotiating on the car trade in isolation. They'll have things like bank passporting on the table too where our position is extremely weak.ATG said:
glazbagun said:
I must say that I enjoyed the way the SNP were skewered for having no plan B on currency. But they look like preppers waiting for the zombie apocalypse compared to the government right now.
The Tories are now leaderless and deeply split, Labour also de facto leaderless and deeply split, the Lib Dems are just a memory, and UKIP are morons.
We could really do with some competent government at the moment. Oh well.
Richard North also senses something is rotten.
A few points below with a link to the full article.
A few points below with a link to the full article.
Dr Richard North said:
The referendum has been the cover for a coup. Vote Leave was never about winning the referendum. It was always about taking over the Conservative Party. That's why the Cummings-Elliott axis were happy to let Farage do the preening over the count. They were too busy executing their coup. Now, Cameron has been deposed and the plotters are storming the palace. Cummings is already behaving as if he was chief of staff at No 10......
There is very little chance of achieving an orderly transition - if indeed that is possible - if the wrong people grab the wheel........ In place of that, we face the possibility of an "association" deal being negotiated. On offer will be a second-class status little different to that of Ukraine, effectively under the control of the EU. It will leave us, as Cameron so often warned, without any seats at any of the "top tables". The worst of all possible worlds.
In the absence of a coherent exit strategy - as Westminster descends into chaos - this option may seem increasingly attractive to many. It will be hailed as a way of reimposing order. But it puts us in the position of supplicants as the siren calls for order and certainty swell in volume. Thus will be the choice - chaos or subjugation, with the idea of freedom a distant memory.
That points the way to a different coup, one being prepared for us in Brussels, with the pressure on to bounce us into early negotiations before anyone is ready. There awaiting us will be a "honey trap" - increasingly attractive compared with the chaos at the centre. We may be watching ourselves leap from a sizzling pan into a roaring fire.
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86118There is very little chance of achieving an orderly transition - if indeed that is possible - if the wrong people grab the wheel........ In place of that, we face the possibility of an "association" deal being negotiated. On offer will be a second-class status little different to that of Ukraine, effectively under the control of the EU. It will leave us, as Cameron so often warned, without any seats at any of the "top tables". The worst of all possible worlds.
In the absence of a coherent exit strategy - as Westminster descends into chaos - this option may seem increasingly attractive to many. It will be hailed as a way of reimposing order. But it puts us in the position of supplicants as the siren calls for order and certainty swell in volume. Thus will be the choice - chaos or subjugation, with the idea of freedom a distant memory.
That points the way to a different coup, one being prepared for us in Brussels, with the pressure on to bounce us into early negotiations before anyone is ready. There awaiting us will be a "honey trap" - increasingly attractive compared with the chaos at the centre. We may be watching ourselves leap from a sizzling pan into a roaring fire.
vonuber said:
I posted this on the results thread:
Well done. vonuber said:
I'm really coming around to the idea that gove et al never thought that leave would win by 4% (the farage it's not settled margin) and thus don't have a clue what to do.
I suspect they thought they could have used a close vote to put pressure on cameron. Now they know the next leader is basically getting a huge poisoned chalice.
I suspect we will go the Norway route to be honest.
I suspect they thought they could have used a close vote to put pressure on cameron. Now they know the next leader is basically getting a huge poisoned chalice.
I suspect we will go the Norway route to be honest.
So, you're a closet mum, eh? Who's have thunk it?
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