How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)
Discussion
Murph7355 said:
You've had it explained many times and not answered yourself!
What result do you expect from said second referendum.
The only indicators out there are that nothing material has shifted. So
- marginal win by Leave. Does that fix anything? Nope. Most of the same loud voices will still be moaning. "Ignore them"? Not allowed. Been tried already
- marginal Remain win. Does that fix anything? Why the hell should it. How many times do we need to vote for it to be accepted? Logically it makes no sense to simply say "but this time it counts". Ahhhhh, but we know more now... No we don't.
We know our MPs are useless can kickers. Another EU malaise. But that's not really "news". Anything else is just repeating the same arguments that you either believe or you do not, for logical reasons or not. Nothing new is available.
Then you have the thorny question of turnout. If it's less than last time (I would suggest likely with the disillusionment with our political class... And I'd venture this will hit the Leave vote hardest as they already won one vote. Why bother with another if the original is ignored?) then what?
There is no logic in a second vote. Leaving won't be any easier if Leave wins again. Pull the tooth. And if Remain wins, unless by a landslide on a bigger turnout (highly unlikely) the division and distrust in our system get torn deeper.
It is not a solution.
A GE isn't really either tbh as it's possible revoke or hardest hard on Brexit could feasibly get a majority with an even smaller number of votes... But at least a majority would see a govt able to function.
Though, of course, we are far more likely to have a hung Parliament IMO. So even that may solve nothing. (Unless MPs keep fecking about in which case I could readily see a Tory/TBP victory.)
If govt commits to a vote and commits to implement it, along with the majority of Parliament committing to do the same, they should f
king well do it. This is mainly down to the Tories AND Labour.
They should then focus on winning the next GE if they can and changing things that way instead of all the theatrics and nonsense we've been subjected to.
(The real solution is to have a better thought out Art50 of course. And for the 2yrs to be non-negotiable. Agree a WA or leave without one. Everyone knows up front, minds focused. Hopefully the EU will spend plenty of time on this as and when we leave - we will one day. Their approach will likely to be to scratch it completely ).
So basically you are afraid the electorate would vote Remain. What result do you expect from said second referendum.
The only indicators out there are that nothing material has shifted. So
- marginal win by Leave. Does that fix anything? Nope. Most of the same loud voices will still be moaning. "Ignore them"? Not allowed. Been tried already
- marginal Remain win. Does that fix anything? Why the hell should it. How many times do we need to vote for it to be accepted? Logically it makes no sense to simply say "but this time it counts". Ahhhhh, but we know more now... No we don't.
We know our MPs are useless can kickers. Another EU malaise. But that's not really "news". Anything else is just repeating the same arguments that you either believe or you do not, for logical reasons or not. Nothing new is available.
Then you have the thorny question of turnout. If it's less than last time (I would suggest likely with the disillusionment with our political class... And I'd venture this will hit the Leave vote hardest as they already won one vote. Why bother with another if the original is ignored?) then what?
There is no logic in a second vote. Leaving won't be any easier if Leave wins again. Pull the tooth. And if Remain wins, unless by a landslide on a bigger turnout (highly unlikely) the division and distrust in our system get torn deeper.
It is not a solution.
A GE isn't really either tbh as it's possible revoke or hardest hard on Brexit could feasibly get a majority with an even smaller number of votes... But at least a majority would see a govt able to function.
Though, of course, we are far more likely to have a hung Parliament IMO. So even that may solve nothing. (Unless MPs keep fecking about in which case I could readily see a Tory/TBP victory.)
If govt commits to a vote and commits to implement it, along with the majority of Parliament committing to do the same, they should f
king well do it. This is mainly down to the Tories AND Labour.They should then focus on winning the next GE if they can and changing things that way instead of all the theatrics and nonsense we've been subjected to.
(The real solution is to have a better thought out Art50 of course. And for the 2yrs to be non-negotiable. Agree a WA or leave without one. Everyone knows up front, minds focused. Hopefully the EU will spend plenty of time on this as and when we leave - we will one day. Their approach will likely to be to scratch it completely
). The real solution is to revoke the Article 50 notification and be done with this nonsense.
ELUSIVEJIM said:
Volume 13 and Germany's luck has ran out.
Germany is in a recession.
Germany has tumbled into recession as global trade tensions, disruption to the car industry and worries over Brexit take their toll, according to the country's central bank.
They'll definately not be vetoing an extension any time soon then. Germany is in a recession.
Germany has tumbled into recession as global trade tensions, disruption to the car industry and worries over Brexit take their toll, according to the country's central bank.
My likely scenario.
WA gets repeated wrecking ammendments allowed by Bercow who has absolutely nothing to lose. His legacy will be known as the most dysfunctional, chaotic and unproductive parliament ever.
Boris pulls Withdrawl Bill. EU grants Extension.
Boris calls for election. SNP and LD jump at chance, Corbyn refuses. Turkeys/ Xmas.
Boris and govt calls for VONC. Tories abstain so Tories Lose VONC as they desire.
Corbyn fails to put together coalition Govt as SNP and LD eye his vulnerable Constituencies and he is toxic in any event.
GE called. Is fought on Parliament v People narritive. Depending on how TBP and Tories work or don't work together will dictate either a large Brexit majority or a smaller Brext Majority ( TBP and Tory vote splitting) with TBP providing some limited support.
Withdrawl Bill resurrected and passed within 4 days.
Boris hailed as saviour of Tory Party and Brexit.
Cummins slips out of back door of No 10 to see someone orange in a big white house.
WA gets repeated wrecking ammendments allowed by Bercow who has absolutely nothing to lose. His legacy will be known as the most dysfunctional, chaotic and unproductive parliament ever.
Boris pulls Withdrawl Bill. EU grants Extension.
Boris calls for election. SNP and LD jump at chance, Corbyn refuses. Turkeys/ Xmas.
Boris and govt calls for VONC. Tories abstain so Tories Lose VONC as they desire.
Corbyn fails to put together coalition Govt as SNP and LD eye his vulnerable Constituencies and he is toxic in any event.
GE called. Is fought on Parliament v People narritive. Depending on how TBP and Tories work or don't work together will dictate either a large Brexit majority or a smaller Brext Majority ( TBP and Tory vote splitting) with TBP providing some limited support.
Withdrawl Bill resurrected and passed within 4 days.
Boris hailed as saviour of Tory Party and Brexit.
Cummins slips out of back door of No 10 to see someone orange in a big white house.
Earthdweller said:
Seriously, we cannot carry on for another 3 years with a Government that cannot govern and an opposition that will oppose everything just because .. or the opposition in effect being the ones running the show
A sad sad end to our democratic system
We need a G.E. ... NOW
Well no we cannot keep going as we have been doing.A sad sad end to our democratic system
We need a G.E. ... NOW
If the WA is so amended that it cannot be passed then the Conservatives need to resign from office. Anything else is just clinging onto office for its own sake.
Stay in Bed Instead said:
Apparently, if the Government can't get through the 2020 Finance Act, we will not have to pay income tax next year.
Nor will we as a nation be able to pay for the government, police, schools or the NHS, let alone our subs to the EU...IIRC, only the government can introduce a Finance Bill, so if the PM is not allowed to resign, this is one avenue he could follow.
Not sure if this has been mentioned.
The former Conservative MP Nick Boles says he has tabled an amendment that would require the government to seek an extension of the transition period to December 2022.
Under Boris Johnson's deal, the transition - a period of time during which all of the current rules stay the same allowing the UK and the EU to negotiate their future relationship - is due to last until the end of December 2020.
However, critics of Mr Johnson's agreement fear there are no provisions to prevent a no-deal exit at the end of the transition period if no free trade agreement has been reached with the EU.
The former Conservative MP Nick Boles says he has tabled an amendment that would require the government to seek an extension of the transition period to December 2022.
Under Boris Johnson's deal, the transition - a period of time during which all of the current rules stay the same allowing the UK and the EU to negotiate their future relationship - is due to last until the end of December 2020.
However, critics of Mr Johnson's agreement fear there are no provisions to prevent a no-deal exit at the end of the transition period if no free trade agreement has been reached with the EU.
ELUSIVEJIM said:
Not sure if this has been mentioned.
The former Conservative MP Nick Boles says he has tabled an amendment that would require the government to seek an extension of the transition period to December 2022.
Under Boris Johnson's deal, the transition - a period of time during which all of the current rules stay the same allowing the UK and the EU to negotiate their future relationship - is due to last until the end of December 2020.
However, critics of Mr Johnson's agreement fear there are no provisions to prevent a no-deal exit at the end of the transition period if no free trade agreement has been reached with the EU.
So an attempt to hamstring the next round of negotiations as well. The former Conservative MP Nick Boles says he has tabled an amendment that would require the government to seek an extension of the transition period to December 2022.
Under Boris Johnson's deal, the transition - a period of time during which all of the current rules stay the same allowing the UK and the EU to negotiate their future relationship - is due to last until the end of December 2020.
However, critics of Mr Johnson's agreement fear there are no provisions to prevent a no-deal exit at the end of the transition period if no free trade agreement has been reached with the EU.
Bussolini said:
Murph7355 said:
You've had it explained many times and not answered yourself!
What result do you expect from said second referendum.
The only indicators out there are that nothing material has shifted. So
- marginal win by Leave. Does that fix anything? Nope. Most of the same loud voices will still be moaning. "Ignore them"? Not allowed. Been tried already
- marginal Remain win. Does that fix anything? Why the hell should it. How many times do we need to vote for it to be accepted? Logically it makes no sense to simply say "but this time it counts". Ahhhhh, but we know more now... No we don't.
We know our MPs are useless can kickers. Another EU malaise. But that's not really "news". Anything else is just repeating the same arguments that you either believe or you do not, for logical reasons or not. Nothing new is available.
Then you have the thorny question of turnout. If it's less than last time (I would suggest likely with the disillusionment with our political class... And I'd venture this will hit the Leave vote hardest as they already won one vote. Why bother with another if the original is ignored?) then what?
There is no logic in a second vote. Leaving won't be any easier if Leave wins again. Pull the tooth. And if Remain wins, unless by a landslide on a bigger turnout (highly unlikely) the division and distrust in our system get torn deeper.
It is not a solution.
A GE isn't really either tbh as it's possible revoke or hardest hard on Brexit could feasibly get a majority with an even smaller number of votes... But at least a majority would see a govt able to function.
Though, of course, we are far more likely to have a hung Parliament IMO. So even that may solve nothing. (Unless MPs keep fecking about in which case I could readily see a Tory/TBP victory.)
If govt commits to a vote and commits to implement it, along with the majority of Parliament committing to do the same, they should fking well do it. This is mainly down to the Tories AND Labour.
They should then focus on winning the next GE if they can and changing things that way instead of all the theatrics and nonsense we've been subjected to.
(The real solution is to have a better thought out Art50 of course. And for the 2yrs to be non-negotiable. Agree a WA or leave without one. Everyone knows up front, minds focused. Hopefully the EU will spend plenty of time on this as and when we leave - we will one day. Their approach will likely to be to scratch it completely ).
So basically you are afraid the electorate would vote Remain. What result do you expect from said second referendum.
The only indicators out there are that nothing material has shifted. So
- marginal win by Leave. Does that fix anything? Nope. Most of the same loud voices will still be moaning. "Ignore them"? Not allowed. Been tried already
- marginal Remain win. Does that fix anything? Why the hell should it. How many times do we need to vote for it to be accepted? Logically it makes no sense to simply say "but this time it counts". Ahhhhh, but we know more now... No we don't.
We know our MPs are useless can kickers. Another EU malaise. But that's not really "news". Anything else is just repeating the same arguments that you either believe or you do not, for logical reasons or not. Nothing new is available.
Then you have the thorny question of turnout. If it's less than last time (I would suggest likely with the disillusionment with our political class... And I'd venture this will hit the Leave vote hardest as they already won one vote. Why bother with another if the original is ignored?) then what?
There is no logic in a second vote. Leaving won't be any easier if Leave wins again. Pull the tooth. And if Remain wins, unless by a landslide on a bigger turnout (highly unlikely) the division and distrust in our system get torn deeper.
It is not a solution.
A GE isn't really either tbh as it's possible revoke or hardest hard on Brexit could feasibly get a majority with an even smaller number of votes... But at least a majority would see a govt able to function.
Though, of course, we are far more likely to have a hung Parliament IMO. So even that may solve nothing. (Unless MPs keep fecking about in which case I could readily see a Tory/TBP victory.)
If govt commits to a vote and commits to implement it, along with the majority of Parliament committing to do the same, they should f
king well do it. This is mainly down to the Tories AND Labour.They should then focus on winning the next GE if they can and changing things that way instead of all the theatrics and nonsense we've been subjected to.
(The real solution is to have a better thought out Art50 of course. And for the 2yrs to be non-negotiable. Agree a WA or leave without one. Everyone knows up front, minds focused. Hopefully the EU will spend plenty of time on this as and when we leave - we will one day. Their approach will likely to be to scratch it completely
). The real solution is to revoke the Article 50 notification and be done with this nonsense.
JagLover said:
Well no we cannot keep going as we have been doing.
If the WA is so amended that it cannot be passed then the Conservatives need to resign from office. Anything else is just clinging onto office for its own sake.
They simply cannot bring themselves to potentially hand the keys to no. 10 to Corbyn without a GE.If the WA is so amended that it cannot be passed then the Conservatives need to resign from office. Anything else is just clinging onto office for its own sake.
There is nothing stopping the Government bringing a motion of confidence in itself.
Labour MP Jim Fitzpatrick says he will support Boris Johnson's deal despite not having had time to read the documents in full yet, claiming that it is "very similar" to Theresa May's deal.
"I've been voting in favour in principle for some months now because I don't want a no-deal Brexit," he says.
"I have yet to hear a politician today saying they have read all the documents."
He adds: "Given how much detailed discussion we have already had, I think we do need to get on to get into the detail of what the agreement says and what the implementation negotiations have to be about."
"I've been voting in favour in principle for some months now because I don't want a no-deal Brexit," he says.
"I have yet to hear a politician today saying they have read all the documents."
He adds: "Given how much detailed discussion we have already had, I think we do need to get on to get into the detail of what the agreement says and what the implementation negotiations have to be about."
psi310398 said:
ELUSIVEJIM said:
Not sure if this has been mentioned.
The former Conservative MP Nick Boles says he has tabled an amendment that would require the government to seek an extension of the transition period to December 2022.
Under Boris Johnson's deal, the transition - a period of time during which all of the current rules stay the same allowing the UK and the EU to negotiate their future relationship - is due to last until the end of December 2020.
However, critics of Mr Johnson's agreement fear there are no provisions to prevent a no-deal exit at the end of the transition period if no free trade agreement has been reached with the EU.
So an attempt to hamstring the next round of negotiations as well. The former Conservative MP Nick Boles says he has tabled an amendment that would require the government to seek an extension of the transition period to December 2022.
Under Boris Johnson's deal, the transition - a period of time during which all of the current rules stay the same allowing the UK and the EU to negotiate their future relationship - is due to last until the end of December 2020.
However, critics of Mr Johnson's agreement fear there are no provisions to prevent a no-deal exit at the end of the transition period if no free trade agreement has been reached with the EU.
The only way forward is an extension and straight into a General Election.
Earthdweller said:
jsf said:
"The arse-about-facedness being a result of their voting for Letwin, n'est-ce pas? So entirely self-inflicted."
Of course.
We have a Parliament and government structure currently where the Government cant control the process, so normal treaty making convention where the ministers agree the treaties then the majority in Parliament goes through the motions of making the law to match the treaty, has completely broken down.
I'll be very surprised if this WA bill doesn't get amended in a way that makes the WA treaty invalid, so cant be signed off by government.
If that happens, the only way out is a GE. That may not be granted until the end of the FTPA in 2022.
It needs the EU to now grow some balls and refuse an extension, if they too want this over with. If they still want to keep the UK in, then they will extend for months.
Seriously, we cannot carry on for another 3 years with a Government that cannot govern and an opposition that will oppose everything just because .. or the opposition in effect being the ones running the show Of course.
We have a Parliament and government structure currently where the Government cant control the process, so normal treaty making convention where the ministers agree the treaties then the majority in Parliament goes through the motions of making the law to match the treaty, has completely broken down.
I'll be very surprised if this WA bill doesn't get amended in a way that makes the WA treaty invalid, so cant be signed off by government.
If that happens, the only way out is a GE. That may not be granted until the end of the FTPA in 2022.
It needs the EU to now grow some balls and refuse an extension, if they too want this over with. If they still want to keep the UK in, then they will extend for months.
A sad sad end to our democratic system
We need a G.E. ... NOW
Talking of running the show, the opposition are not. All they are doing is perpetuating paralysis. It's very easy to stick a spanner in the mechanism and jam it, which is all they've done, but their mistake is to think that when the spanner is removed that the mechanism will magically start running the other way.
psi310398 said:
ELUSIVEJIM said:
Not sure if this has been mentioned.
The former Conservative MP Nick Boles says he has tabled an amendment that would require the government to seek an extension of the transition period to December 2022.
Under Boris Johnson's deal, the transition - a period of time during which all of the current rules stay the same allowing the UK and the EU to negotiate their future relationship - is due to last until the end of December 2020.
However, critics of Mr Johnson's agreement fear there are no provisions to prevent a no-deal exit at the end of the transition period if no free trade agreement has been reached with the EU.
So an attempt to hamstring the next round of negotiations as well. The former Conservative MP Nick Boles says he has tabled an amendment that would require the government to seek an extension of the transition period to December 2022.
Under Boris Johnson's deal, the transition - a period of time during which all of the current rules stay the same allowing the UK and the EU to negotiate their future relationship - is due to last until the end of December 2020.
However, critics of Mr Johnson's agreement fear there are no provisions to prevent a no-deal exit at the end of the transition period if no free trade agreement has been reached with the EU.
As a result I think it is pointless getting worked up about the vote this week. The government will likely end up having to pull the vote.
psi310398 said:
So an attempt to hamstring the next round of negotiations as well.
You could take that view, or consider that the complex negotiations once we leave will require more time than the UK Gov is prepared to allow. The Brexit Secretary has had to admit today that he was wrong about trading between NI and GB, he was either confused or trying to misrepresent the agreement, but whatever the truth it's surely a warning that full scrutiny is a prerequisite. Zoobeef said:
What this whole thing has shown is that voting counts for almost nothing and how horrendously st most of the country is at negotiating.
The amount of MPs and public that think that removing our biggest bargaining chip (no deal) from the table when negotiating is astounding.
It's quite the opposite actually.t most of the country is at negotiating.The amount of MPs and public that think that removing our biggest bargaining chip (no deal) from the table when negotiating is astounding.
It forced Boris to actually get a new deal, whereas his original plan was to run down the clock and blame the EU.
ELUSIVEJIM said:
Volume 13 and Germany's luck has ran out.
Germany is in a recession.
Germany has tumbled into recession as global trade tensions, disruption to the car industry and worries over Brexit take their toll, according to the country's central bank.
There's only a few countries left that aren't....including us. Is France next? I can see why so many remainers want to be part of such a glorious club! No wonder they're desperate to keep us in and keep our money flowing.Germany is in a recession.
Germany has tumbled into recession as global trade tensions, disruption to the car industry and worries over Brexit take their toll, according to the country's central bank.
By trying to 'punish' the UK for the leaving. the EU has cut off it's nose to spite it's face. Trying to bankrupt your best customer isn't really good for business is it....?!
German taxes will have to go up.
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