2021 Budget Predictions

[vulture1]

Brainpox said:

Public sector pay freeze
Extend stamp duty relief to after the summer
Some proposals to encourage spending at hospitality venues, when they are allowed to re-open
Fuel duty must surely be raided now?
Given there's still plenty of time before the next election I wonder if they'd do something like reducing tax-free allowance?

Can you imagine the outrage that will come with the public sector pay freeze. Even though a huge chunk of the private sector has been destroyed.

[FWIW]

992_GT3 said:

They already do.

Haha...I guess he meant at a proper rate.

[992_GT3]

FWIW said:

Haha...I guess he meant at a proper rate.

They pay the same rates as every other business.

[Shnozz]

Sophisticated Sarah said:

Probably further punishments for the self employed.

Sadly that’s what I envisage too and some noises already. Convenient how corporation tax largely seems overlooked and how the government happily deem a director as self-employed when they see fit and employed when it suits them.

[Jamescrs]

vulture1 said:

Can you imagine the outrage that will come with the public sector pay freeze. Even though a huge chunk of the private sector has been destroyed.

They were already putting out the idea of a Public sector pay freeze except the NHS so whilst I don't agree with it I think the wider public will probably accept it

[brickwall]

My predictions:

Tax:
- Stamp duty holiday ends, or is restricted to first-time-buyers only
- CGT rises to 40% (or is counted as income)
- Tax relief on pension contributions is capped at 20%
- Little bits added to alcohol, cigarettes, and sugary-drinks taxes - all under the auspices of getting the nation healthier

Spending:
Big £££ will go on:
- Jobs: extending flexi-furlough, employment bonuses, job creation schemes (including direct government investments e.g. HS2), etc.
- Education: catch-up schemes for schools, adult retraining, skills guarantees, etc.

Also expect:
- Universal Credit £20 increase to be reduced down (or removed), and replaced by a US-style one-off stimulus cheque.
- Public sector pay freeze, excluding NHS
- No big moves on defence, transport, culture. Some tokenism but no big money.

[amgmcqueen]

Public sector pay freeze.
MP's salaries slashed by 50%.
Number of MPs reduced.
Scrap the HOLs.
Scrap HS2.
Scrap foreign aid.
Scrap benefits.
Scrap the Barnett Formula.
Tax Amazon, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Apple, Microsoft etc 50%.
Raise CGT.
10p litre on fuel.
5% on a packet of fags.
Toll the Channel tunnel.

[elanfan]

I have personal knowledge of several friends who are self employed and they pay virtually no tax as their accountants somehow manage arrange it so. How about the self employed start paying their fair share would be a start!

[Macron]

vulture1 said:

Brainpox said:

Public sector pay freeze
Extend stamp duty relief to after the summer
Some proposals to encourage spending at hospitality venues, when they are allowed to re-open
Fuel duty must surely be raided now?
Given there's still plenty of time before the next election I wonder if they'd do something like reducing tax-free allowance?

Can you imagine the outrage that will come with the public sector pay freeze. Even though a huge chunk of the private sector has been destroyed.

Hardly a prediction, it's already been announced.

And there are oddities with the early departmental settlements, MOD got £4bn for kit, and will lose 10k armed forces, and needs to go further than that on civilians (obvs), reducing the pay bill by 12.5%.

Done deal.

The only thing Rishi can do is announce yet more NHS £ as wages to thank our hardworking medical personnel, which I'd like to think few would argue with, but this is PH, and of course it rather undermines a PS pay freeze.

[Dixy]

May I suggest you friends might be telling you porkies.

[98elise]

elanfan said:

I have personal knowledge of several friends who are self employed and they pay virtually no tax as their accountants somehow manage arrange it so. How about the self employed start paying their fair share would be a start!

There is no legitimate way to do that if they are earning more then the tax fee amounts (or paying into a pension).

If they are simply not declaring income, that doesn't need an accountant. Why would an accountant get involved in a crime to benefit their client?

[M22s]

Jamescrs said:

No great hits to people this year as they are trying to climb out of covid and will want the country to go back out spending.

Next year will be bad.

This is where I am thinking at the moment; I expect there will be change in local rates than anything.

Imagine there will be some sort of reliefs to stimulate the economy further.

I guess the big’y that is still to hit, is what unemployment rises to in the 2-3 months after furlough ends - I imagine there will be some sort of contingency allowed for this too.

[brickwall]

amgmcqueen said:

Public sector pay freeze.
MP's salaries slashed by 50%.
Number of MPs reduced.
Scrap the HOLs.
Scrap HS2.
Scrap foreign aid.
Scrap benefits.
Scrap the Barnett Formula.
Tax Amazon, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Apple, Microsoft etc 50%.
Raise CGT.
10p litre on fuel.
5% on a packet of fags.
Toll the Channel tunnel.

If you think most of that is in any way likely you are on a different planet

[montecristo]

When/how would potential CGT changes announced on budget day come into effect? i.e. is there likely to be a window post-budget when one could sell assets at the existing/lower CGT rate?

Edited by montecristo on Sunday 14th February 15:09

[brickwall]

montecristo said:

When/how would potential CGT changes announced on budget day come into effect? i.e. is there likely to be a window post-budget when one could sell assets at the existing/lower CGT rate?

Edited by montecristo on Sunday 14th February 15:09

Who knows. There might be transitional protections, there might not.
(Though from a policy perspective, you probably wouldn’t do much transitional protection, as it would trigger a sell-off in that window.)

[Jasandjules]

I hope to see a £1000pcm charge to anyone who supported the lockdowns. You wanted it, you pay for it.

[Biggy Stardust]

Macron said:

The only thing Rishi can do is announce yet more NHS £ as wages to thank our hardworking medical personnel, which I'd like to think few would argue with, but this is PH, and of course it rather undermines a PS pay freeze.

Extra money for those with guaranteed employment with gold-plated, iron-clad, copper bottomed pensions whilst those without such security struggle? This extra being on top of the usual pay rises & pay increments?

I think the argument against might be more common than you suggest.

[oyster]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Totally wrong on pensions - pensioners are the lowest spending group in the economy. Extra pensions would just stay in the bank.
I’d say the opposite, time to drop the triple lock - albeit this could be political suicide.

[Saleen836]

elanfan said:

I have personal knowledge of several friends who are self employed and they pay virtually no tax as their accountants somehow manage arrange it so. How about the self employed start paying their fair share would be a start!

50p says they all moaned like hell when the SEISS they claimed was minimal stating "how am I meant to survive on that?"

[Gecko1978]

elanfan said:

I have personal knowledge of several friends who are self employed and they pay virtually no tax as their accountants somehow manage arrange it so. How about the self employed start paying their fair share would be a start!

Pre ir35 I paid v little PAYE but paid corp and Dividend tax and charged VAT ir35 came in an I now pay top rate tax plus employers NI and a fee to get my pay. But also had zero support from the government in terms of access to furlough. So I doubt they do pay zero but proably pay tax in different ways. Oh an as for fair share in 2020 I paid over 100k in personal tax I think given most workers earn gross less than 37k so make bet zero contribution that the self employed (for employment rights and protection but employed for tax) are making a fair contribution and if they are paying zero thats evasion not avoidance and its illegal.