How far will house prices fall? [Volume 2]

[Timmy33]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

[Timmy33]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

No worries mate. sorry, end of day, and some inconsiderate so-and-so has been forcing me to do some work. Very inconsidrate. I shall put Mr Grumpy back in his box.

[s2art]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Still not so sure. Some big banks have taken huge hits but....
Barclays for instance seem to be able to maintain their profits at approx £7G even after accepting a £1.8G write-off this year. Seems more of a nervous to lend each other money effect rather than a total meltdown.

[trooperiziz]

NoelWatson said:

"will today reveal that the derivatives market is now pricing in falls in house prices for the next three years. The cost of futures contracts linked to house prices suggests the value of the average home will not rise back above its current level until 2018."

First thought was "bloody hell, not till 2018!"

Second thought was "bloody hell, 2018 is only 10 years away! Where's my jetpack!"

[NoelWatson]

FAO Tonker,

Not sure how laggy this data is, but London still appears to be falling faster than the rest of the country

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-234...

Appreciate that "nice" areas may buck the trend, but there are a lot of well paid people getting laid off at the moment (at least if my place is anything to go by)

[clubsport]

My first trading crisis was oct '87...interesting, had no clue, learnt a lot from that!!!...been through russian, thai, ltcm crisis...traded gbp o/n at 15+% remember irish punts at 1000% in the money markets etc..blah..blah....but the current crisis appears different, the most worrying aspect is the reluctance from many to appreciate or at least comprehend that economies appear to work in cycles and as the good times seem to have been so good, the bad times may well be very tough indeed!
I was prepared for this way too soon (not such a bad thing?) and feel the prolonged exuberance will unfortunately come to bear with a harsher reality than anticipated by many

[NoelWatson]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

My belief is that while Fulham etc may tread water, I think the Greater London average will fall further than the country as a whole. We therefore agree on the first point, but not on the second.

I think Halifax quarterly report is out in the next few days (last one was 19/01), will be interesting to see the numbers

[2something]

this HBOS one ?

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/08_04_08Ho...

ETA: Ah you mean the blah that goes with it.

London up 1.6% according to HBOS - go figure.

Edited by 2something on Tuesday 15th April 21:42

[Muncher]

How bad could it get... A 4 bedroom home for $1,500!!

Came across a link to this on another forum, some seriously cheap property on there.

http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MapSearch/MapS...

[Kneetrembler]

I still think that there are some more large (lumps) to be dropped out by some of the banks yet.

And that the likes of UBS are still to show some more bad news yet.

We still have a way to go yet.

[princeperch]

Muncher said:

How bad could it get... A 4 bedroom home for $1,500!!

Came across a link to this on another forum, some seriously cheap property on there.

http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MapSearch/MapS...

beggers belief does that.

[NoelWatson]

2something said:

this HBOS one ?

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/08_04_08Ho...

ETA: Ah you mean the blah that goes with it.

London up 1.6% according to HBOS - go figure.

Edited by 2something on Tuesday 15th April 21:42

No, that is the monthly - last quarterly was here

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/QuarterlyRegionalCo...

[NoelWatson]

Auction data

http://www.allsop.co.uk/uploads/File/RAPID/RAPID%2...

Interesting points (for me at least!)

Graph 5: Central and inner London flats fallen further than rest of country

Graphs 7 and 8: Distressed sales on the rise

[MitchT]

30-70%, depending where in the country you are and what type of property it is.

[ChrisO]

Ok, so read and read this thread for a long time now and I am still no clearer to understanding whether I need to be sh!tting myself or not at the potential for the housing market to crash.

I consider myself to be a fairly normal, working bloke - me and the mrs earn reasonably well (£90k p/a between two wages) and don't live extravagantly. I live in a 2 bed house in South Yorkshire, bought for £90k 3 years ago. 3x houses round the corner (exactly the same) have each sold for £105k (ish) in the past 2-3 months. So, no sign of a credit crunch here? Houses are typically FTB houses too. Am I being ignorant in the extreme about all of this? I really don't understand financial mechanics (should have listened more in economics...), just want to know whether my house will be worth s*d all in the next few years.

Oh, and PS - is anybody else getting really irritated by all these FTB's who "can't wait" for the market to crash so they can get a cheap house? How can you wish so hard for hardship to come to so many?

Not wanting someone to predict the value of my house... just a confused rant.

Back in my box now...

[fido]

Just to buck the trend, got an offer on my house today, and not a bad one at that - 2.75% off the best offer last summer. I'm not disputing that 'average' house prices are falling even in sunny Surrey, but the market is so illiquid that if you need to buy a place (especially one that's commutable to the smoke) then the market trend certainly ain't your friend.

Nearly went through with it, but pulled out of the chain today .. the lady who wanted to buy my place was almost in tears on the phone and has probably made a voodoo doll of myself. I'm bit stressed and confused myself - heck, i really wanted to move but starting a new job very soon and can't be ars3d with all the hassle involved. [Tonks, any no nonsense advice to offer?]

Damn, when it comes to making tough decisions, sometimes the tough just leg it. Right i'm going to chill out and surf for some automotive porn.

Edited by fido on Wednesday 16th April 14:37

[Engineer1]

MitchT said:

30-70%, depending where in the country you are and what type of property it is.

if they drop 70% the country is fked, a lot of recent buyers i.e. in the last 10 years will lose out very very big, at that drop people won't think about moving for a better job or similar as they can't take the huge hit that moving would give, who has a mortgage at 50 -30 % of their property's current value?

[spikeyhead]

ChrisO said:

I really don't understand financial mechanics (should have listened more in economics...), just want to know whether my house will be worth s*d all in the next few years.

It really doesn't matter to you. You've got a home with a mortgage that is very affordable to you.

Its possible that the price of your house may fall by 40% in the next few years but you'll still have your home. Should you wish to buy a larger home that should be even cheaper.

The only time its going to make a difference is if you decide to sell it now, stay with your parents or in a tent for three years and then buy it back, but lets face it, you're not going to do it. It would probably make financial sense for me to do it but I like my home so I'm staying put in it.

[anonymous-user]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

As well as fking others around!

[ChrisO]

spikeyhead said:

ChrisO said:

I really don't understand financial mechanics (should have listened more in economics...), just want to know whether my house will be worth s*d all in the next few years.

It really doesn't matter to you. You've got a home with a mortgage that is very affordable to you.

Its possible that the price of your house may fall by 40% in the next few years but you'll still have your home. Should you wish to buy a larger home that should be even cheaper.

The only time its going to make a difference is if you decide to sell it now, stay with your parents or in a tent for three years and then buy it back, but lets face it, you're not going to do it. It would probably make financial sense for me to do it but I like my home so I'm staying put in it.

Thanks - thought as much myself but the thought of paying a mortgage for the next few years and not being better off is pretty galling, I guess we've all got used to the idea that buying a house = guaranteed equity.

I'll stay where I am, plan is to bank as much as I can, then let mine out in a few years and buy something bigger.

Why is it that so many people feel they need a big house? A mate of mine lives on his own, and has just mortgaged himself to the hilt for a new-build, 4-bed house!?!?!