Snap General Election Tomorrow
Poll: Snap General Election Tomorrow
Total Members Polled: 698
Discussion
AshVX220 said:
I'm surprised business people are so happy to continue to be part of a continent wide left leangin government, which stifles business development.
Or does it? The idea expressed by some that left leaning governments are bad for business seems to me to be baseless. Amongst the party faithful this seems to be the classic mode of thinking but much less so people who study economics or run large businesses.
The "Less tax and spending means more growth" idea grossly oversimplifies the situation encountered in the real world. Amongst developed countries you might conclude the opposite from data! I think a more pragmatic way to view this is that some types of taxation constrain economic growth and some types of spending promote economic growth. Actually if you consider inflation a tax on currency denominated wealth (which it is when you are doing QE) then actually some types of taxation promote economic growth
.The devil is in the detail as always.
I think Baroness Warsi will regret those comments and no doubt some advisor asked her what the hell she was doing when she came off air. Its another example of the Conservative's trying to downplay a growing UKIP popularity and stick their head in the sand. UKIP were never going to win many councillors or start overhauling councils but the mere fact they're getting similar airtime to the Greens etc shows they're gaining and the Tories are worried.
speedy_thrills said:
Or does it?
The idea expressed by some that left leaning governments are bad for business seems to me to be baseless. Amongst the party faithful this seems to be the classic mode of thinking but much less so people who study economics or run large businesses.
The "Less tax and spending means more growth" idea grossly oversimplifies the situation encountered in the real world. Amongst developed countries you might conclude the opposite from data! I think a more pragmatic way to view this is that some types of taxation constrain economic growth and some types of spending promote economic growth. Actually if you consider inflation a tax on currency denominated wealth (which it is when you are doing QE) then actually some types of taxation promote economic growth.
The devil is in the detail as always.
I studied economics, and the first thing that stands out is the notion that inflation encourages economic growth. Where did that come from? It in some cases encourages consumer spending, but that is not the same thing.The idea expressed by some that left leaning governments are bad for business seems to me to be baseless. Amongst the party faithful this seems to be the classic mode of thinking but much less so people who study economics or run large businesses.
The "Less tax and spending means more growth" idea grossly oversimplifies the situation encountered in the real world. Amongst developed countries you might conclude the opposite from data! I think a more pragmatic way to view this is that some types of taxation constrain economic growth and some types of spending promote economic growth. Actually if you consider inflation a tax on currency denominated wealth (which it is when you are doing QE) then actually some types of taxation promote economic growth
.The devil is in the detail as always.
You're right, there is a bit more to it than lower taxes = higher growth; how the government raises the money and what it then does with it have an impact, as do many other factors. Certain projects can increase the productivity level whether funded privately or publicly. But I have never seen a coherent argument as to how generally greater government spending actually promotes growth, or any data to suggest it does.
martin84 said:
I think Baroness Warsi will regret those comments and no doubt some advisor asked her what the hell she was doing when she came off air. Its another example of the Conservative's trying to downplay a growing UKIP popularity and stick their head in the sand. UKIP were never going to win many councillors or start overhauling councils but the mere fact they're getting similar airtime to the Greens etc shows they're gaining and the Tories are worried.
How long before she gets booted out?The latest Ashcroft poll.
Ch4 news said:
An election tomorrow would result in a Labour government with a majority of 84 seats as the Conservatives haemorrhaged marginal seats, a poll from Tory peer Lord Ashcroft suggests.
According to the poll of more than 19,000 adults in 213 constituencies, the Conservatives would lose 93 marginal seats to Labour, and the Liberal Democrats would lose 13 seats.
The results, revealed by Lord Ashcroft on Saturday, say that the Conservatives would only retain 16 of its most marginal seats where Labour was in second place at the last election.
'Challenge in perspective'
Lord Ashcroft said: "I don't want to see a Labour majority of four, let alone 84, but I hope this puts the challenge into some sort of perspective.
"We have a long way to go to hold onto the seats we gained last time, let alone pick up many more. But things are slightly less grim than the headline polls suggest, and we have everything to play for."
The swing towards Labour, the poll suggests, is largest around Kent, the Midlands and in some northern seats. However, the data shows Labour would have more difficulty overturning the Conservatives in southern towns and London.
Lib Dem slump
The data does not show as severe a result for the Conservatives at a general election than other national polls have suggested. In total Labour would gain 109 seats, giving Ed Miliband 367 MPs in the House of Commons, an overall majority of 84.
This compares to a Labour majority of 114 that would be achieved on a "uniform swing" according to current national polls.
The Liberal Democrats would suffer to both Labour and the Conservatives, the data says. Of the Liberal Democrat seats in England and Wales, Nick Clegg would lose 17 to the Conservatives and 13 to Labour - including two where Labour finished third in 2010.
http://www.channel4.com/news/conservative-party-liberal-democrats-labour-cameron-milibandAccording to the poll of more than 19,000 adults in 213 constituencies, the Conservatives would lose 93 marginal seats to Labour, and the Liberal Democrats would lose 13 seats.
The results, revealed by Lord Ashcroft on Saturday, say that the Conservatives would only retain 16 of its most marginal seats where Labour was in second place at the last election.
'Challenge in perspective'
Lord Ashcroft said: "I don't want to see a Labour majority of four, let alone 84, but I hope this puts the challenge into some sort of perspective.
"We have a long way to go to hold onto the seats we gained last time, let alone pick up many more. But things are slightly less grim than the headline polls suggest, and we have everything to play for."
The swing towards Labour, the poll suggests, is largest around Kent, the Midlands and in some northern seats. However, the data shows Labour would have more difficulty overturning the Conservatives in southern towns and London.
Lib Dem slump
The data does not show as severe a result for the Conservatives at a general election than other national polls have suggested. In total Labour would gain 109 seats, giving Ed Miliband 367 MPs in the House of Commons, an overall majority of 84.
This compares to a Labour majority of 114 that would be achieved on a "uniform swing" according to current national polls.
The Liberal Democrats would suffer to both Labour and the Conservatives, the data says. Of the Liberal Democrat seats in England and Wales, Nick Clegg would lose 17 to the Conservatives and 13 to Labour - including two where Labour finished third in 2010.
I find the thought of any remote possibility of a Prime Minister Ed Miliband and Chancellor Balls rather chilling. I don't think the Tories have done a great job, with the handicap of having to please the Lib Dems, but we don't deserve another profligate Labour Government led by a political joke. God help us.
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