How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[Dicky Knee]

FocusRS3 said:

Thankyou4calling said:

It needs work
It's awkward
In two years loads of viewings

It's clearly overpriced

Its not so bad that you couldn't live in it don't get me wrong.

The point really is that 3yrs ago it'll have sold I'm sure but the market has turned from sellers to buyers market now

I live in Shenfield although I don't follow the prices very closely.

Asking prices for a 4 bedroom,detached house within walking distance of the station start around the thick end of £1m and multiple millions on Hutton Mount. I would guess that much of the demand comes from City workers as it is a good commute into the City and Canary Wharf.

In my street I can only see 2 houses that have sold in the last year or so (although there may have been others). One to a developer who has knocked down a large Edwardian place and building 2 houses on the site and the other was done up by a flipper which took about 18 months to sell for about 15% less than initial asking. There are 6 For Sale signs and 2 SOLD (STC). There used to be 4 SOLD(STC) signs so I assume the sales have fallen through. The time between SOLD signs going up and sales completing seems to be incredibly long-some have been 'sold' for nearly a year and the signs are still up.

Personally I think the market has topped out in as much as buyers are unable or unwilling to pay the prices and sellers are sitting tight. It seems like there are quite a lot of retirees looking to cash out and not in a rush. There isn't a functioning 'market' in my view.

[FocusRS3]

It seems like there are quite a lot of retirees looking to cash out and not in a rush. There isn't a functioning 'market' in my view.

I agree with the above and others that are trying to cash out a little early and not risk getting caught out with another 2008/9 scenario.

Just my 2p of course

[number2]

FocusRS3 said:

It seems like there are quite a lot of retirees looking to cash out and not in a rush. There isn't a functioning 'market' in my view.

I agree with the above and others that are trying to cash out a little early and not risk getting caught out with another 2008/9 scenario.

Just my 2p of course

Yes. I think the number of multi-£m houses on the market in Hutton Mount over the past year or so is testament to that.

[Zonergem]

Hard Brexit followed by a Corbyn Mansion Tax might stick it to those retirees good and hard.

[mikees]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Link?

[scenario8]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

The 5/6 bed on Worrin Rd’s been available since at least Sept 2016. Started at 1.4, then 1.3, now 1.195...

[jonah35]

As an aside I get if you’re a billionaire living in Mayfair but I’m still surprised by how much people put up with

A friend of mine who comes on our ‘lads holidays’ works in finance for a big city firm and gets up at 0600 to commute into London from a commuter town, gets home around 7pm or later if he takes his squidgy belly to the gym but his life Monday to Friday (including Friday night as he is tired) is miserable. He does let slip the value of his house at each conversation and drops in the fact he has a panamera but it’s almost like he needs those to show him it’s worth it.

One of my northern mates earns £40k per year working for the local council lives in a paid for flat worth £100k (you actually get a nice flat for £100k up north!) and works from home 3 days a week and goes into the office to sit around talking for the other 2 days (he’s single but sleeping with one of the girls at his work.) he’s forever going out, forever on holiday on flexi time or with his 7 Weeks per year annual leave and forever in the gym and looks youthful, in great shape and looks 15 years younger than the other chap.

On the face of it the panamera driving £2m house chap looks like he is the successful but the opposite is true in my humble opinion.

Sad thing is society kind of laughs at my mate who has no major aspirations and drives an old Peugeot worth a grand or so but truthfully, deep down, I think he has it right

My concern is these people in London put up with it because they tell themselves that in 10 years they will have £1m equity and can retire and chill out and be like my mate. If house prices in London go south and they end up trapped I think it will cause a huge amount of emotional and mental unrest amongst many people.

Trouble is too by the time they downsize at 45 they realise that they’re a middle aged podgy bloke that looks 55 and going travelling round Thailand makes them look like a seedy old bloke rather than a young cool guy

[stongle]

FocusRS3 said:

Upminster is too close to Romford for my liking and having lived there some years ago I've only seen it go downhill since.
Brentwood is the smarter buy IMO.

Proximity to Romford is a fair point, bit stabby (although I'm plenty close to Catford and the Mac10s). Went to school in Upminster, so perhaps a bit misty!

[Sheepshanks]

number2 said:

Sheepshanks said:

Excuse an out-of-towner question, but why would Shenfield be described as "the Hub of Crossrail"?

It's not a hub as such, it's just the last stop at the east end of the line. Comparing it to the west end of the line, Shenfield is a far more pleasant place to live than Reading and has way better access to the central London, regardless of Crossrail (just saying )

I don't see a valid reason for house prices to have increased in the area due to Crossrail:

- the new trains follow the same tracks as the old trains, stop at more stops though (although they say there's no impact on journey times..)
- travelling to Canary Wharf means changing at Whitechapel, which is more time consuming than changing at Stratford, so no benefit there.
- travelling into the west-end meant changing at Stratford/Liverpool street but this was hardly challenging.
- the fast trains from Shenfield get to Stratford in 15 minutes (Crossrail 35mins) and Liverpool Street in 23 minutes (Crossrail 45mins).

I can see the benefits of Crossrail to the wider transport network in London, just not to people living at the east end of it, ergo house prices there.

Thanks. I was thinking 'hub' would be the middle, so wondered what I was missing.

Incidentally, re Crossrail, a mate sold in Maidenhead three years ago and was a bit miffed he missed the top of the market. Now he reckons his old house wouldn't sell for what he got.

[Sheepshanks]

jonah35 said:

As an aside I get if you’re a billionaire living in Mayfair but I’m still surprised by how much people put up with

A friend of mine who comes on our ‘lads holidays’ works in finance for a big city firm and gets up at 0600 to commute into London from a commuter town, gets home around 7pm or later if he takes his squidgy belly to the gym but his life Monday to Friday (including Friday night as he is tired) is miserable.

Maybe you have an easy life, as I do (mostly), but I doubt there's much unusual in that. One of my kids is a teacher and the other works in the NHS and their days are similar to that, the NHS daughter arriving home a little earlier, but the teacher one regularly much later. They both have work to do in the evening too.

[Thankyou4calling]

scenario8 said:

The 5/6 bed on Worrin Rd’s been available since at least Sept 2016. Started at 1.4, then 1.3, now 1.195...

If that's it then I'd want to know when Terry and June last did the curtains.

[Dicky Knee]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

If you want a back yard as well that will be another £500k.

Most of the older houses around Shenfield had large back yards but have been subdivided over the years leaving alot of houses like this.

It is almost certainly the reason it hasn't sold-family house with no yard for the kids.

The Terry and June decor (not my description) is relatively cheaply fixed but is a feature of most down sizer houses. This will be us one day.....

[kingston12]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I never quite understood that development. I suppose that they thought it was ideal for downsizers who wanted to stay in the area but not in a big house, but I can't imagine that many people would have wanted to do that in 2007 when we were locked in a 'house prices can only ever go up' phase.

The obviously sold them at a premium (£700k was pretty big money for a flat in 2007) and now that premium has disappeared. If you'd put that £700k into a house in the area in 2007 then it must still be worth over £1m now, even if that has come off a bit too,

[ooid]

jonah35 said:

One of my northern mates earns £40k per year working for the local council lives in a paid for flat worth £100k (you actually get a nice flat for £100k up north!) and works from home 3 days a week and goes into the office to sit around talking for the other 2 days (he’s single but sleeping with one of the girls at his work.) he’s forever going out, forever on holiday on flexi time or with his 7 Weeks per year annual leave and forever in the gym and ....

Well, lets hope his line-manager does not read this than?! sounds like he is a big contributor to that council's deficit?

jonah35 said:

A friend of mine who comes on our ‘lads holidays’ works in finance for a big city firm and gets up at 0600 to commute into London from a commuter town, gets home around 7pm or later if he takes his squidgy belly to the gym but his life Monday to Friday (including Friday night as he is tired) is miserable.

Did you not think that, maybe he really likes his job and what he does?! I can count dozens of professions for you that require severe perseverance under quite difficult working conditions (medicine, architecture, sports...) and not always pay or have to sacrifice personal life or leisure..

[jdw100]

wisbech said:

JDW - even that is recent. At one stage lawyer was telling us to divorce, sign prenup and remarry (we didn’t have prenup and for family reasons my FIL wanted to give my wife land) but the constitutional court ruled that that was sex discrimination (we didn’t bring the case!) as if a man married a foreign woman he could still buy/ have land without prenup

Still the case that you have a year to sell/ change to leasehold title if your partner dies, as can’t have land in your name.

Noticed that prices in Bali are coming down, not sure about Jakarta

Edited by wisbech on Thursday 16th August 04:45

This will be of no interest to anyone else on this thread!

Hi. Yes we had a prenup because it’s my wife’s property (she is Indonesian) and if we got divorced there’s a risk the state could claim the house!

Prices here - all over the show. Property next door to us is 12 Are, 4 bedrooms, decent pool etc - been on market for 2 years. Over the Road is 20 Are (at least) and has been empty for 5 years. Priced far too high from what I’m told. No idea what our place is worth.

http://www.balivillasales.com/category/jimbaran/

Rental prices are great though. A mate of mine was renting a serviced split level top floor apartment in Umalas for £600 a month. Another friend just looking at a really nice two double bed place with nice pool for similar. Both on one year rentals with cleaning etc thrown in.

We were thinking we might rent somewhere up around Jataluwih for a year and rent our place out. I fancy waking up to a view over rice terraces for a while...

Edited by jdw100 on Saturday 18th August 03:07

[jonah35]

ooid said:

jonah35 said:

One of my northern mates earns £40k per year working for the local council lives in a paid for flat worth £100k (you actually get a nice flat for £100k up north!) and works from home 3 days a week and goes into the office to sit around talking for the other 2 days (he’s single but sleeping with one of the girls at his work.) he’s forever going out, forever on holiday on flexi time or with his 7 Weeks per year annual leave and forever in the gym and ....

Well, lets hope his line-manager does not read this than?! sounds like he is a big contributor to that council's deficit?

jonah35 said:

A friend of mine who comes on our ‘lads holidays’ works in finance for a big city firm and gets up at 0600 to commute into London from a commuter town, gets home around 7pm or later if he takes his squidgy belly to the gym but his life Monday to Friday (including Friday night as he is tired) is miserable.

Did you not think that, maybe he really likes his job and what he does?! I can count dozens of professions for you that require severe perseverance under quite difficult working conditions (medicine, architecture, sports...) and not always pay or have to sacrifice personal life or leisure..

His line manager is worse!

Yes it did occur to me he could like it and I’m sure many do but he doesn’t because he spills the beans after a beer. Says he feels trapped.

I could be wrong but I’d wager more employees in professions that work long hours Would prefer not to do it. Bit different if you own the business and so on

I know it’s each to their own etc but I just feel it people get trapped in negative equity in London houses what would they do?

[princeperch]

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...


first time I've seen a landlord try and offload in bulk like this..

[Croutons]

princeperch said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...


first time I've seen a landlord try and offload in bulk like this..

There are stloads of such sales all over the place, often hiding under the "commercial" tab on rightmove. A good half dozen in Cheltenham for example (I'm not going to link, I really can't be arsed), and those are the ones that haven't changed hands off market, which most do as Agents want to deal with prepared buyers, not Joe Public feeling his or her way through for the first time and fking up or freaking out at the last. This is not news. Unless people in motherwell are particularly fond of never selling, and this breaks new ground.

[hyphen]

Anyone from Brighton about?

What the fk is going on??

Spending weekend there/here and so came across the huge development site on the core seafront. Assumed it would be something touristy, but nope. They are building several towers of flats on the seafront,right next to the pier. 520 flats iirc.

Apparently this will fund a new sports centre on site which makes no sense to me. It's a huge tourist town.

Also cheerfully announcing that they are expanding blocks of flats at the marina, 40% of these will be going to those on "waiting lists". Why would you risk fking up the attractiveness of the marina by filling it with council.

Further artists impressions of changing the parade area, making it look like a modern galzed shopping thing. Do they not understand Brighton's character.

Very confused, are you Brighton in favour of all this??

Edited by hyphen on Saturday 25th August 22:30

[oilbethere]

hyphen said:

Anyone from Brighton about?

What the fk is going on??

Spending weekend there and so very across the huge development site on the core seafront. Assumed it would be something touristy, but nope. They are building several towers of flats on the seafront,right next to the pier. 520 flats iirc.

Apparently this will fund a new sports centre on site which makes no sense. It's a huge tourist town.

Also cheerfully announcing that they are expanding blocks of flats at the marina, 40% of these will be going to those on "waiting lists". Why would you risk fking up the attractiveness of the marina by filling it with council.

Very confused

A lot of money from London bought there and have told their mates how good it is which has resulted in a housing boom. Any new developments now have to include affordable housing.