The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 3)
Discussion
PurpleMoonlight said:
Using aid to 'teach a man to fish' is fine.
Using aid to 'teach a man to fish providing he sells us the fish' isn't.
Is there one about teaching a man to grow coffee, but only raw coffee, which you buy from him for pennies - so that you can do the value-adding process yourself? Using aid to 'teach a man to fish providing he sells us the fish' isn't.
PurpleMoonlight said:
amusingduck said:
Is there one about teaching a man to grow coffee, but only raw coffee, which you buy from him for pennies - so that you can do the value-adding process yourself?
I don't know, does that happen?Telegraph said:
Calestous Juma, at the Harvard Kennedy School, calculates that in 2014 Africa earned nearly $2.4bn (£1.9bn) from coffee grown in rich African soil and picked by African workers. By contrast, Germany’s coffee processing industry makes $3.8bn from roasting imported raw beans and then re-exporting them.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/06/brexit-should-be-good-for-africa-and-africa-could-be-good-for-br/PurpleMoonlight said:
amusingduck said:
It does. The EU have very low tariffs on raw coffee and high tariffs on processed coffee.
Which has what to do with the UK aid budget?PurpleMoonlight said:
Sway said:
A while back, the EU was lauded as 'helping out' poor African countries by dropping tariffs for their exports. Only issue, is that it's nowhere near as generous as first appears...
Yes very interesting, but still bugger all to do with the UK aid budget.Why shouldn't aid provided by the UK result in the UK's best interests being served?
What specifically is the problem that you have with it, that others don't appear to have?
don'tbesilly said:
Is anyone else quite as upset at this news as you seem to be?
Why shouldn't aid provided by the UK result in the UK's best interests being served?
What specifically is the problem that you have with it, that others don't appear to have?
Because they used the B word and that is Bad Why shouldn't aid provided by the UK result in the UK's best interests being served?
What specifically is the problem that you have with it, that others don't appear to have?
Vanden Saab said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
May plans to turn the 'aid' budget into a 'bribe' budget.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6102581/Ma...
Are you, as you have posted the link, seriously suggesting that prior to Brexit the "aid" budget has never been used in this way? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6102581/Ma...
It works both ways though. EuropeAid spends significantly more on international development than the UK and there are no shortage of British companies working on projects funded by the Germans and others - my company being one of them.
But post Brexit, UK companies are likely to be excluded from such projects so I support May's stance on this. It's nothing to do with bribing. The UK is positioning itself an implementor, not just funder. This is to be applauded.
Foreign Aid is a handy punch-bag for the Daily Mail types but the reality is far removed from the headlines. A great deal of it is provided as soft-loans; we get it back, plus interest. This latest move means that the funding put into projects by foreign governments - often a condition of the UK funding - is spent with UK companies. This is a good thing. Whether it is to a level that exceeds the value lost through access to EuropeAid projects remains to be seen.
PH darling DanHan says a post Brexit house crash is a good thing.
https://twitter.com/danieljhannan/status/104037543...
They should have put “Vote Leave to lose 35% off the value of your house” onto a big red bus. It would have put Daily Mail offices into a spin.
https://twitter.com/danieljhannan/status/104037543...
They should have put “Vote Leave to lose 35% off the value of your house” onto a big red bus. It would have put Daily Mail offices into a spin.
There's an nteresting inversion of motivations at play here.
Property-owning retirees voting for Brexit, despite all the assurances from those in power that house prices will suffer as a result.
Students and the young voting to Remain, to protect the status quo keeping them in perma-rent.
Property-owning retirees voting for Brexit, despite all the assurances from those in power that house prices will suffer as a result.
Students and the young voting to Remain, to protect the status quo keeping them in perma-rent.
SpeckledJim said:
There's an nteresting inversion of motivations at play here.
Property-owning retirees voting for Brexit, despite all the assurances from those in power that house prices will suffer as a result.
Students and the young voting to Remain, to protect the status quo keeping them in perma-rent.
It makes little difference to the older people as mainly they own their home but it is almost as if younger people didn't know what they were voting for Property-owning retirees voting for Brexit, despite all the assurances from those in power that house prices will suffer as a result.
Students and the young voting to Remain, to protect the status quo keeping them in perma-rent.
So property prices.....
A drop in UK market wide value should be beneficial for many people. The main people that it would hurt are the banks, landlords, pension funds and those wishing to build a legecy for their off-spring I would have thought.
For those looking to move house, both existing and new house prices would drop. Same position.
For those looking to first time buy = more affordable.
This should lower rents via market forcing.
For those already on mortgages, they have a 'virtual hit' as they'd be paying off a debt based on the original higher value of their property. But otherwise this could be seen as a non-change situation, they'd be paying the same before and after.
Businesses would benefit from lower rents if the housing property impacts business property.
But I think the main question is if a housing market adjustment is even possible in the UK?
If the 2008 meltdown had little effect, then Brexit is also likely to have little effect ?
A drop in UK market wide value should be beneficial for many people. The main people that it would hurt are the banks, landlords, pension funds and those wishing to build a legecy for their off-spring I would have thought.
For those looking to move house, both existing and new house prices would drop. Same position.
For those looking to first time buy = more affordable.
This should lower rents via market forcing.
For those already on mortgages, they have a 'virtual hit' as they'd be paying off a debt based on the original higher value of their property. But otherwise this could be seen as a non-change situation, they'd be paying the same before and after.
Businesses would benefit from lower rents if the housing property impacts business property.
But I think the main question is if a housing market adjustment is even possible in the UK?
If the 2008 meltdown had little effect, then Brexit is also likely to have little effect ?
Atomic12C said:
But otherwise this could be seen as a non-change situation, they'd be paying the same before and after.
This assumes a house price drop happens in isolation. If you couple a double digit percentage drop with a few interest rate hikes, that's going to leave a whole bunch of people in negative equity, with no ability to pay their mortgage. House repossessed, tens of thousands of pounds lost, and you still owe the bank money.
I don't imagine those people would see that as a non change situation?
Also, in negative equity, you'll get no mortgage deals, no lower interest rates. Mortgage deals will expire and payments will go up by a couple of percent, putting many many more people into serious financial difficulty.
_dobbo_ said:
This assumes a house price drop happens in isolation. If you couple a double digit percentage drop with a few interest rate hikes, that's going to leave a whole bunch of people in negative equity, with no ability to pay their mortgage.
Negative equity yes....but this is no real change to ability to pay off a mortgage is it?. Interest rate hikes, sure, that would do it.But would the BofE or mortgage banks raise interest rates if they knew they'd lose out on debt recovery payments?
Would a property market adjustment force BofE to raise interest rates?
(I'm no expert, just asking a few questions)
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