Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 6

[dingg]

Guam said:

whoami said:

Doing what?

I imagine unloading positions?

or loading up

but most likely just trading the futures on swings and dips

I'm erring on the side of a relief rally tomorrow

[Russ35]

Are the polling stations the same as for other elections? so will they publish the results for each station/ward so you get an idea how your fellow locals voted?

[toppstuff]

SilverSixer said:

dele said:

Work for an investment bank in the City and we have staff coming in at 2am to prepare for the 'worst'

Jesus. Can it really not wait till 8am? Are 6 hours that important?

You will be asleep in your bed cuddling your teddy bear, but the other side of the world will not be. The other side of the world will be making investment decisions and sending them in our direction.

Fortunes can be made ( and lost ) in such circumstances.

[ralphrj]

Russ35 said:

Are the polling stations the same as for other elections? so will they publish the results for each station/ward so you get an idea how your fellow locals voted?

Polling stations change depending on availability (as I discovered at the European Elections this year) but usually they are in the same place.

I don't think you get a breakdown of results by polling station in any other elections so I doubt we'll get one this time.

As I understand it each local authority will count the votes in their area and declare a result. That is the most detail we'll get.

[vonuber]

Question: who is paying for the Yes campaign? My impression is that there has been quite an extensive campaign being done - who is footing the bill?

[AstonZagato]

Timsta said:

SilverSixer said:

dele said:

Work for an investment bank in the City and we have staff coming in at 2am to prepare for the 'worst'

Jesus. Can it really not wait till 8am? Are 6 hours that important?

Do people actually enjoy having to work for these slave driving companies? Total madness.

Sorry for being off topic but that really gets my goat.

My work/company are going to be hugely affected if it's a YES tonight. But really, we're just going to come in as normal tomorrow. We don't live in a Hollywood world where breakfast is for wimps and the cut of your suit matters more than what you do.

Apologies again. Real hobby horse of mine. Can't help it.

No, it can't wait till 8am. 6 Hours are very important.

People do enjoy working for these "slave driving" companies and will be getting paid extra for those hours of work.

I take it that your company won't be able to minimize any losses in those 6 hours, but investment bankers would.

Currency markets operate in Asian hours so one could trade sterling ahead of the wider move (though, in theory, markets are efficient, so they will move to reflect information as it emerges).

We have held a Risk Oversight Committee meeting earlier this month. Markets tomorrow were the catalyst for the meeting.

We are making sure that our IT team are in early. The price of securities might change rapidly, especially as markets open in London, and we want to make sure our risk systems are firing on all cylinders - it would not be the moment for them to fall over or find that we are understaffed by people who can put it right.

The securities we focus on mainly trade in London hours, so the portfolio management team will come in a little earlier than normal to make sure they are up-to-speed before markets open offically.

[SilverSixer]

NomduJour said:

SilverSixer said:

Jesus. Can it really not wait till 8am? Are 6 hours that important?

Do people actually enjoy having to work for these slave driving companies? Total madness.

Yes, because people in the City work all hours just so they can pretend to be Gordon Gekko on the internet.

Effort/reward.

So the rest of us don't put in enough effort and reward is only measured financially. Gotcha.

[CaptainSlow]

dele said:

Work for an investment bank in the City and we have staff coming in at 2am to prepare for the 'worst'

But nothing will change with a No vote?

[nicanary]

vonuber said:

Question: who is paying for the Yes campaign? My impression is that there has been quite an extensive campaign being done - who is footing the bill?

The SNP printed money on their John Bull printing set. Which they presumably intend to continue in the event of a YES vote.

Time for canny Englishmen to open payday loan outlets North of the border. They're going to need them.

[marshalla]

CaptainSlow said:

dele said:

Work for an investment bank in the City and we have staff coming in at 2am to prepare for the 'worst'

But nothing will change with a No vote?

But the markets will do what they always do when an uncertain situation is resolved.

[Risky Shift]

vonuber said:

Question: who is paying for the Yes campaign? My impression is that there has been quite an extensive campaign being done - who is footing the bill?

To an extent, the ordinary taxpayer has footed a considerable amount of the cost. IIRC, £800k was siphoned off from Scottish Water's budget to pay for the White Paper propaganda piece then a further £700k has came out of goodness knows where to fund more recent leaflet drops. It appears to me the Better Together has stuck more closely to the cost cap than the Yes camp - I think Yes has been quite shrewd in the way they've (at least appeared to) run a very well funded campaign.

[NomduJour]

SilverSixer said:

So the rest of us don't put in enough effort and reward is only measured financially. Gotcha.

Not sure what you're trying to argue. The job may require them to work hard, often at unsociable hours. They are (generally) financially rewarded commensurately.

Nobody's stopping you doing it if you want the money. If you don't want to do it, shut up and let them get on with it.

[FiF]

PurpleTurtle said:

Aplogies for joining in 112 pages in to Vol 6 in case this has been done before but:

Opinion polls have YES/NO pretty much neck and neck
Betfair has a market on it with odds on a YES majority at 5/1, NO majority at 5/1-on.

Both can't be right, but I am surprised they are so far apart?

I've had a small flutter for fun ... time will tell!

Personally I suspect the polls may have underestimated the No vote. As you say time will tell.

Regarding betting odds they don't really tell you anything tbh.

At the commencement of betting the odds do represent the bookies view of things. Sort of.

As money is laid then the bookmaker alters the odds according to how much money has been placed and to protect his position. There is the other issue of how much is laid off.

Of course some people argue that a lot of money going one way or the other is an indication of how many people think the decision will go, and in a way that's true. What it doesn't provide is a statistical indication of a result nor why people laid the money the way they did.

[AstonZagato]

Moonhawk said:

Are exit polls being conducted? If so - are the results of them held until the polling stations are closed - or will we get an idea part way through the day?

I heard on R4's Today programme this morning that the BBC is NOT conducting an exit poll. They gave no reason (or if they did, I missed it).

[simoid]

Silverbullet767 said:

Apparently a man arrested in clydebank at a polling station. PH wizards, investigate!

I googled it and got this:

[marshalla]

Risky Shift said:

vonuber said:

Question: who is paying for the Yes campaign? My impression is that there has been quite an extensive campaign being done - who is footing the bill?

To an extent, the ordinary taxpayer has footed a considerable amount of the cost. IIRC, £800k was siphoned off from Scottish Water's budget to pay for the White Paper propaganda piece then a further £700k has came out of goodness knows where to fund more recent leaflet drops. It appears to me the Better Together has stuck more closely to the cost cap than the Yes camp - I think Yes has been quite shrewd in the way they've (at least appeared to) run a very well funded campaign.

Lottery funded (indirectly) : http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/11/eu...

[SilverSixer]

toppstuff said:

SilverSixer said:

dele said:

Work for an investment bank in the City and we have staff coming in at 2am to prepare for the 'worst'

Jesus. Can it really not wait till 8am? Are 6 hours that important?

You will be asleep in your bed cuddling your teddy bear, but the other side of the world will not be. The other side of the world will be making investment decisions and sending them in our direction.

Fortunes can be made ( and lost ) in such circumstances.

But that applies every single day of the year. Are you there wearing your shiny suit all night every night, Christmas, the lot?

[troc]

alock said:

The second is that I don't understand what's so special about Scotland (or England or Wales). Scotland only existed for a few hundred years. It was itself the union of earlier kingdoms and then a few hundred years later joined with other kingdoms to form a larger union. You are drawing an artificial line in history and deciding that is the one true definition of what a country is.

Don't see why that's a valid point, after all it's worked really well for Israel.

Er, oh, wait.............

[Leithen]

AstonZagato said:

I heard on R4's Today programme this morning that the BBC is NOT conducting an exit poll. They gave no reason (or if they did, I missed it).

Page 150 of the Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013, Prohibition on publication of exit polls.....

Not allowed to publish anything before the end of the poll.

[motco]

Stupid question perhaps: I assume that the result will be based on the aggregated number of 'yes' versus 'no' votes cast over the whole of Scotland arrived at by asking the returning officers to declare x thousand 'yes' and y thousand 'no' votes, rather than 'yes' won in the particular constituency, or vice versa? In 'normal' elections with wards and seats it is the number of constituencies for each participant that decides the winner. There is the possibility that one party may have more aggregated votes than another and yet lose on the constituency count. Surely that is not happening here is it?