How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
///ajd said:
Genius.
So we voted to leave to get away from the rules that we in the EU had to follow whilst other Nations in the EU did not follow. Hence proving that leaving is the only way to get out of not following those rules.
The promised bonfire of regulations is not so funny this week though, turns out legislation to protect the population is not such a bad thing.
So we voted to leave to get away from the rules that we in the EU had to follow whilst other Nations in the EU did not follow. Hence proving that leaving is the only way to get out of not following those rules.
The promised bonfire of regulations is not so funny this week though, turns out legislation to protect the population is not such a bad thing.
ajd,what specific regulations are you refering to?
jjlynn27 said:
Wiccan of Darkness said:
t.
But that's just me. I know there's people out there that would like nothing more than to see the UK crash and burn just to say 'I told you so'.
You were doing reasonably well till that last line. Do you actually think that people want hardship on themselves and on people close to them 'just to say 'I told you so''?But that's just me. I know there's people out there that would like nothing more than to see the UK crash and burn just to say 'I told you so'.
s have a enough brass to ride the st storm they wish for,,,,, so its just a spiteful game to them...powerstroke said:
jjlynn27 said:
Wiccan of Darkness said:
t.
But that's just me. I know there's people out there that would like nothing more than to see the UK crash and burn just to say 'I told you so'.
You were doing reasonably well till that last line. Do you actually think that people want hardship on themselves and on people close to them 'just to say 'I told you so''?But that's just me. I know there's people out there that would like nothing more than to see the UK crash and burn just to say 'I told you so'.
s have a enough brass to ride the st storm they wish for,,,,, so its just a spiteful game to them...You forgot to mention the woman that "fronts" all the legal challenges with a bit of financial assistance.
Honestly I can't see much changing in the next couple of years. Perhaps too much of a simplification, but the UK will still need to import workers from the EU, and it will want to keep barriers of entry to the EU market low -- and vice-versa. Untangling all of the legal stuff will take ages, same for the supply chains.
So my guess: the whole thing will be done in several phases. The first being not a 'hard' or a 'soft' Brexit, but a Brexit 'light'. There's only 19 months left and that is not a lot of time to negotiate anything yet alone to implement things. Just one minuscule part of the problem, to make a point: has the UK e.g. started to hire customs staff and specced the reqd. IT processes and systems? Even if the new legal framework was 100% clear right now, that would be a challenge to get up and running in that time frame.
There is sooo much else going on in that same vein that not much will really happen until say ~ 2022. The whole machine has too much momentum to be taken around 90 degree bends and there is not much interest on either side to derail things. Now the problem will be selling this (IMO perfectly reasonable approach) to the UK electorate without resorting to yet more EU-blaming which could weaken the negotiating position on future relations.
So my guess: the whole thing will be done in several phases. The first being not a 'hard' or a 'soft' Brexit, but a Brexit 'light'. There's only 19 months left and that is not a lot of time to negotiate anything yet alone to implement things. Just one minuscule part of the problem, to make a point: has the UK e.g. started to hire customs staff and specced the reqd. IT processes and systems? Even if the new legal framework was 100% clear right now, that would be a challenge to get up and running in that time frame.
There is sooo much else going on in that same vein that not much will really happen until say ~ 2022. The whole machine has too much momentum to be taken around 90 degree bends and there is not much interest on either side to derail things. Now the problem will be selling this (IMO perfectly reasonable approach) to the UK electorate without resorting to yet more EU-blaming which could weaken the negotiating position on future relations.
It's time for the government to start thinking about what a post-Brexit economy might look like. The UKs economy is far from "Brexit ready." In fact since the start of the year the UKs economy has fallen into stagflation as consumer budgets have been squeezed. BoE inflation target is 2%, inflation rate is 2.9% but if BoE make a move it's likely they'd squeeze household budgets further.
The government just need a change in domestic policy that delivers wage growth to consumers very rapidly.
The government just need a change in domestic policy that delivers wage growth to consumers very rapidly.
Is the treatment of non-EU citizens by member States an EU competence?
By which I mean : can two or more member States have different policies regarding travel/work/settlement by citizens of a particular, non-EU State?
It appears to be the case in reverse; despite the "EU passport" German citizens enjoy visa-free travel to more foreign countries than French or British.
This would solve the Irish border issue for the Irish post-Brexit (transparent to Irish citizens, hard to others) although there would remain the problem of UK-side enforcement.
For UK citizens, much depends on the question above - can the RoI unilaterally offer reciprocity? If so, good for UK/Eire relations, trade etc. But a potential minefield for Brexit negotiations.
Consider : as a sovereign State outside the EU, the UK can decide its own policies regarding foreign nationals, even to the point of discrimination between EU member States. We would be able to make a commitment to future treatment of EU citizens, and did indeed offer to do so several months ago.
M. Barnier, by contrast, may be negotiating on behalf of 27 States from whom he holds no mandate in this sphere...
By which I mean : can two or more member States have different policies regarding travel/work/settlement by citizens of a particular, non-EU State?
It appears to be the case in reverse; despite the "EU passport" German citizens enjoy visa-free travel to more foreign countries than French or British.
This would solve the Irish border issue for the Irish post-Brexit (transparent to Irish citizens, hard to others) although there would remain the problem of UK-side enforcement.
For UK citizens, much depends on the question above - can the RoI unilaterally offer reciprocity? If so, good for UK/Eire relations, trade etc. But a potential minefield for Brexit negotiations.
Consider : as a sovereign State outside the EU, the UK can decide its own policies regarding foreign nationals, even to the point of discrimination between EU member States. We would be able to make a commitment to future treatment of EU citizens, and did indeed offer to do so several months ago.
M. Barnier, by contrast, may be negotiating on behalf of 27 States from whom he holds no mandate in this sphere...
Mrr T said:
handpaper said:
Is the treatment of non-EU citizens by member States an EU competence?
M. Barnier, by contrast, may be negotiating on behalf of 27 States from whom he holds no mandate in this sphere...
His mandate has been set by the Europe Council.M. Barnier, by contrast, may be negotiating on behalf of 27 States from whom he holds no mandate in this sphere...
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-rele...
"So as not to undercut the position of the Union, there will be no separate negotiations between individual Member States and the United Kingdom on matters pertaining to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the Union."
Well, at least until after Brexit, when said competence reverts...
What they mean when they talk about smoothness and 'a Brexit for jobs' is staying in the EU. That's what is going to happen. We will end up in exactly the same position we are in now but minus our rebate, the rebate that the undeniably, clearly pro-EU Mrs T. So spectacularly brilliantly negotiated for us. Brexit just is not going to happen. I would like to see Farage there, just do as he could see his great dream collapse and be stuck in that moment eternallly, the absolute bellend.
///ajd said:
W124 said:
I would like to see Farage there, just so he could see his great dream collapse and be stuck in that moment eternallly, the absolute bellend.
There is the thought for the day, right there. 
amgmcqueen said:
///ajd said:
W124 said:
I would like to see Farage there, just so he could see his great dream collapse and be stuck in that moment eternallly, the absolute bellend.
There is the thought for the day, right there. Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff