How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

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Shnozz

27,581 posts

273 months

Sunday 1st March 2020
quotequote all
156651 said:
This is true. You should read forums from around 2010 where apparently a massive crash was imminent. Prices have SKYROCKETED since.
Geographically dependant. Outside of London the growth has been steady but in many parts they have still not even seen a return to 2008 prices.

spikeyhead

17,439 posts

199 months

Sunday 1st March 2020
quotequote all
Shnozz said:
Geographically dependant. Outside of London the growth has been steady but in many parts they have still not even seen a return to 2008 prices.
I sold my house in Luton in 2012 for £147k

This is similar, but in a slightly worse street

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

yours for £290k

Sheepshanks

33,077 posts

121 months

Sunday 1st March 2020
quotequote all
spikeyhead said:
I sold my house in Luton in 2012 for £147k

This is similar, but in a slightly worse street

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

yours for £290k
There's sold prices on that listing for £150K and £160K in 2006.

Looking at a Luton house price graph, they were pretty flat from 2004 to 2014. Then they took off. A lot of places haven't had that surge and are still just bumbling along.

Dicky Knee

1,037 posts

133 months

Monday 2nd March 2020
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loafer123 said:
UpBeats said:
House prices are toast. Look at builders shares. Follow the money. We will be down 20pc by next April.
Certainly down a fair chunk.

Mind you, house prices are determined by affordability, and gilt yields are down heavily too, making long term borrowing even cheaper than it was.
I would add confidence to this as well. The Boris/Brexit/'Can't wait any longer' bounce is the confidence bit. My view is that the Corona Virus impact hasn't been seen too much yet although the Stock Market woke up to it last week. This will take a while to work through the supply chain but manufacturing and retail will get some knock-on effect. No one knows how severe the impact will be yet. Maybe a blip, maybe a recession.

Shnozz

27,581 posts

273 months

Monday 2nd March 2020
quotequote all
spikeyhead said:
Shnozz said:
Geographically dependant. Outside of London the growth has been steady but in many parts they have still not even seen a return to 2008 prices.
I sold my house in Luton in 2012 for £147k

This is similar, but in a slightly worse street

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

yours for £290k
Be that as it may, its not representative of the UK as a whole.

I'm originally from South Hampshire and would say 2008 seemed to have a less pronounced effect - house prices stayed resilient in general. However, I have not seen this phenomenal growth spurt post 2014.

Until last year I happened to have a house in East Midlands. That tanked 20% or so at 2008, gradually climbed back up but even at today its barely beyond its 2008 high.

Likewise I live in Leeds these days and 2008 hit hard. Yes, I would say that Leeds centre has enjoyed a fairly steep rise since 2014, but many of the properties are still below their 2008 peak. Move outside of the city centre and to the burbs and you will see a relatively flat line that has now been apparent for 15 or so years.

London, and the counties immediately surrounding it (commuter belt) is not representative of behaviour elsewhere, for the most part.

UpBeats

122 posts

53 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
People pulling out left right and centre. Prices plunging according to estate agent i know in london area.

NickCQ

5,392 posts

98 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
UpBeats said:
People pulling out left right and centre. Prices plunging according to estate agent i know in london area.
Seems like the surcharge for foreign buyers is going to happen in the Budget, which can't be good for London top-end

matrignano

4,418 posts

212 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
UpBeats said:
People pulling out left right and centre. Prices plunging according to estate agent i know in london area.
Really? Define plunging?

156651

11,575 posts

87 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
UpBeats said:
People pulling out left right and centre. Prices plunging according to estate agent i know in london area.
I doubt that.

ClaphamGT3

11,344 posts

245 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
UpBeats said:
People pulling out left right and centre. Prices plunging according to estate agent i know in london area.
Interesting - I was talking to the head of resi for one of the largest agents in the UK only this afternoon, who was saying that the London market is performing more strongly than he's seen for four years. Whilst he was particularly bullish, this is the sentiment Ive been observing all this year.

Absorption rates still remain sluggish for new product from the volume house builders but, taken in the round, the London market has picked up rather than 'plunged'

Fanboy911

3,411 posts

93 months

Thursday 5th March 2020
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We are heading into recession they can’t be good for the property market especially at the top end.

This whole virus business will stall things for now IMO too

loafer123

15,476 posts

217 months

Thursday 5th March 2020
quotequote all
Fanboy911 said:
We are heading into recession they can’t be good for the property market especially at the top end.

This whole virus business will stall things for now IMO too
I envisage a 6-9 month hiatus followed by a relief rally with little change in prices, but a jump in volumes.

Lenders are highly unlikely to default mortgages during a time of international crisis, keeping distress low.

z4RRSchris

11,359 posts

181 months

Thursday 5th March 2020
quotequote all
ClaphamGT3 said:
Interesting - I was talking to the head of resi for one of the largest agents in the UK only this afternoon, who was saying that the London market is performing more strongly than he's seen for four years. Whilst he was particularly bullish, this is the sentiment Ive been observing all this year.

Absorption rates still remain sluggish for new product from the volume house builders but, taken in the round, the London market has picked up rather than 'plunged'
i speak to the agents daily, hourly, and have a billion quid of stock to shift at close to 4 grand a foot.

Its picked up, but it had a very very very low base level to work off.

deals are happening, but i think the rush now is 11th March based rather than anything else.

p1stonhead

25,752 posts

169 months

Thursday 5th March 2020
quotequote all
z4RRSchris said:
ClaphamGT3 said:
Interesting - I was talking to the head of resi for one of the largest agents in the UK only this afternoon, who was saying that the London market is performing more strongly than he's seen for four years. Whilst he was particularly bullish, this is the sentiment Ive been observing all this year.

Absorption rates still remain sluggish for new product from the volume house builders but, taken in the round, the London market has picked up rather than 'plunged'
i speak to the agents daily, hourly, and have a billion quid of stock to shift at close to 4 grand a foot.

Its picked up, but it had a very very very low base level to work off.

deals are happening, but i think the rush now is 11th March based rather than anything else.
£4K a ft? Where?!

z4RRSchris

11,359 posts

181 months

Thursday 5th March 2020
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
£4K a ft? Where?!
regents park and kensington - i'm sure you can work out where.

okgo

38,369 posts

200 months

Thursday 5th March 2020
quotequote all
Due to complete in 4 weeks or so. Must admit, am somewhat nervous about a 7 figure purchase given everything that is happening. Gazundering hasn't been eliminated as an option. So far the chain has remained solid, nobody making any noises, but I've had a few emails about 'property re-launch' which is concerning...

matrignano

4,418 posts

212 months

Thursday 5th March 2020
quotequote all
What are the latest budget predictions?
Focus seems to have diverted to Coronavirus funding therefore I wonder if there will be any Stamp Duty relief at all, for anyone?

p1stonhead

25,752 posts

169 months

Thursday 5th March 2020
quotequote all
z4RRSchris said:
p1stonhead said:
£4K a ft? Where?!
regents park and kensington - i'm sure you can work out where.
Haven’t done anything up there for a good few years. Didn’t realise those prices were achievable at the moment.

Fanboy911

3,411 posts

93 months

Thursday 5th March 2020
quotequote all
z4RRSchris said:
i speak to the agents daily, hourly, and have a billion quid of stock to shift at close to 4 grand a foot.
As in you work as a property portfolio manager on behalf of a raft of clients ?

UpBeats

122 posts

53 months

Thursday 5th March 2020
quotequote all
Aka an estate agent. Pointy shoes and greasy hair.
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