How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[Fanboy911]

UpBeats said:

Aka an estate agent. Pointy shoes and greasy hair.

[z4RRSchris]

Fanboy911 said:

As in you work as a property portfolio manager on behalf of a raft of clients ?

head of sales and marketing for a developer.

[ClaphamGT3]

z4RRSchris said:

ClaphamGT3 said:

Interesting - I was talking to the head of resi for one of the largest agents in the UK only this afternoon, who was saying that the London market is performing more strongly than he's seen for four years. Whilst he was particularly bullish, this is the sentiment Ive been observing all this year.

Absorption rates still remain sluggish for new product from the volume house builders but, taken in the round, the London market has picked up rather than 'plunged'

i speak to the agents daily, hourly, and have a billion quid of stock to shift at close to 4 grand a foot.

Its picked up, but it had a very very very low base level to work off.

deals are happening, but i think the rush now is 11th March based rather than anything else.

Yes - your segment of the market is the one where we see least interest/activity.

[Fanboy911]

z4RRSchris said:

head of sales and marketing for a developer.

Got it and good luck

[kiethton]

ClaphamGT3 said:

Interesting - I was talking to the head of resi for one of the largest agents in the UK only this afternoon, who was saying that the London market is performing more strongly than he's seen for four years. Whilst he was particularly bullish, this is the sentiment Ive been observing all this year.

Absorption rates still remain sluggish for new product from the volume house builders but, taken in the round, the London market has picked up rather than 'plunged'

This is what I've heard from a similar source.

The Mrs works for a high-end central London estate agent and they're busy with new instructions and sales. I'm also speaking to a number of the big PRS developers/investors/operators and all is plugging along very nicely so far.

[UpBeats]

Fanboy911 said:

Got it and good luck

Aka a parasite

[156651]

matrignano said:

What are the latest budget predictions?
Focus seems to have diverted to Coronavirus funding therefore I wonder if there will be any Stamp Duty relief at all, for anyone?

It may actually make stamp duty changes at the lower end more likely imo - if they introduce a mansion tax to raise cash, they may reduce rates at the lower end to show its tax the rich rather than the middle classes.

I may be biased ... if they stick with the manifesto commitment to raise the stamp ceiling to 500k I save 9k as we complete on 6 April!

[p1stonhead]

UpBeats said:

Fanboy911 said:

Got it and good luck

Aka a parasite

WTF?

He sells developments built by the company he works for. What’s your problem?

And even if you were talking about estate agents, they aren’t necessarily loved by all, but parasites?

[matrignano]

okgo said:

Gazundering hasn't been eliminated as an option.

How and when would one go for that tactic?
Asking for a friend

[ClaphamGT3]

156651 said:

matrignano said:

What are the latest budget predictions?
Focus seems to have diverted to Coronavirus funding therefore I wonder if there will be any Stamp Duty relief at all, for anyone?

It may actually make stamp duty changes at the lower end more likely imo - if they introduce a mansion tax to raise cash, they may reduce rates at the lower end to show its tax the rich rather than the middle classes.

I may be biased ... if they stick with the manifesto commitment to raise the stamp ceiling to 500k I save 9k as we complete on 6 April!

Issue with that of course is that, in London, a £2m property is the middle classes

[156651]

ClaphamGT3 said:

Issue with that of course is that, in London, a £2m property is the middle classes

Well, it depends how you define middle class. The vast majority of people on anything near 'normal' salaries (even in the 100k-200k bracket which is 3-6x the London average) could only possibly be in a £2m property if they have benefited from massive house price inflation. If you think you need 200k in deposit/equity and combined salary of 360k (which is probably the 0.1% of households) to buy a £2m house ...

[gibbon]

ClaphamGT3 said:

Issue with that of course is that, in London, a £2m property is the middle classes

Thats a bit of a stretch for anyone under the age of 60, surely.

I live in a house of circa that value, and my profession and income i would not say would usually be categorised as middle class, certainly not where i grew up (oop north), i feel very fortunate.

[z4RRSchris]

£2m on a £200k salary you still need a million quid of equity.

which is very possible if you are older chap and have ridden the lovely wave of price growth.if you havent then well done for having a million quid in the bank.

[NickCQ]

ClaphamGT3 said:

Issue with that of course is that, in London, a £2m property is the middle classes

Exactly. In nicer areas, £2 mm gets you a <1,500 sqft 2 up 2 down that would have been built for the Victorian lower middle classes / workers.
Your neighbours will be a mix of "normal" people who have lived there 20+ years and higher earners that have arrived in the last 5-10.

[ben5575]

kiethton said:

This is what I've heard from a similar source.

The Mrs works for a high-end central London estate agent and they're busy with new instructions and sales. I'm also speaking to a number of the big PRS developers/investors/operators and all is plugging along very nicely so far.

Interesting on the PRS. There has been an *awful* lot of talk in the market (we have sites/schemes for c.1000 units around the UK) but the when it comes to actual transactions with the investors (as opposed to agent talk), the reality is very different.

We've seen it pick up post GE as like always, the investors have been waiting and waiting and now need to place with renewed vigour.

[ClaphamGT3]

ben5575 said:

kiethton said:

This is what I've heard from a similar source.

The Mrs works for a high-end central London estate agent and they're busy with new instructions and sales. I'm also speaking to a number of the big PRS developers/investors/operators and all is plugging along very nicely so far.

Interesting on the PRS. There has been an *awful* lot of talk in the market (we have sites/schemes for c.1000 units around the UK) but the when it comes to actual transactions with the investors (as opposed to agent talk), the reality is very different.

We've seen it pick up post GE as like always, the investors have been waiting and waiting and now need to place with renewed vigour.

Although we are seeing PRS/BTR as probably the fastest growing segment of our resi business.

[156651]

NickCQ said:

Exactly. In nicer areas, £2 mm gets you a <1,500 sqft 2 up 2 down that would have been built for the Victorian lower middle classes / workers.
Your neighbours will be a mix of "normal" people who have lived there 20+ years and higher earners that have arrived in the last 5-10.

I'm not seeing the problem in applying an increased tax on people who have earned large sums of unearned and untaxed wealth through house price inflation ...

[s1962a]

156651 said:

NickCQ said:

Exactly. In nicer areas, £2 mm gets you a <1,500 sqft 2 up 2 down that would have been built for the Victorian lower middle classes / workers.
Your neighbours will be a mix of "normal" people who have lived there 20+ years and higher earners that have arrived in the last 5-10.

I'm not seeing the problem in applying an increased tax on people who have earned large sums of unearned and untaxed wealth through house price inflation ...

Are you a labour supporter? I can't see the tories bringing in a tax such as this, as it'll probably harm part of their core voter base.

[stuckmojo]

156651 said:

I'm not seeing the problem in applying an increased tax on people who have earned large sums of unearned and untaxed wealth through house price inflation ...

I would agree with this with a time delay. I am as far as a Labour supporter as one can be but speculative gain at the expense of a primary need like housing should be dissuaded vs other investments (IMHO)

[NickCQ]

156651 said:

I'm not seeing the problem in applying an increased tax on people who have earned large sums of unearned and untaxed wealth through house price inflation ...

What about the rest of us that have to leverage ourselves up to the eyeballs to buy fairly average property anywhere within reasonable commuting range of our places of work? I’ll be paying six figures of stamp duty out of both earned and taxed ‘wealth’.

Hypothetically, a tax on primary property gains would work, but you’d have to exempt money reinvested in another primary property when moving. Otherwise people would get trapped and the housing market would be even more inefficient than it is now.

US style annual property tax as a % of purchase price seems more sensible.