How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)

[anonymous-user]

SpeckledJim said:

Crumpet said:

SpeckledJim said:

Labour’s any remaining hope just fizzled out.

And this move has probably just changed the way I’ll vote.

I hold no love for the BP but I have a lot of dislike for Labour and when you live in a Labour stronghold this could be the one chance to kick them out.

I don’t think TBP will win a single seat, but I think they will draw enough votes like yours to do serious damage to the Labour Party in a lot of their seats outside London and Liverpool.

I was about to enquire what others thought about the potential impact (if any!) on Labour's seats in London. How 'entrenched' are those communities and seats?

[Robertj21a]

Stay in Bed Instead said:

SpeckledJim said:

That is it. A decent Tory majority is now theirs to lose.

Farage has done to the Tories what May should have done to the EU. Take them past where you need to end up, and then allow them to walk you back.

Labour’s any remaining hope just fizzled out.

Is it?

The Conservatives didn't win a majority in 2017.

True - but I reckon many more would now vote for Boris than would ever consider Corbyn. Labour has lost a lot in recent times, largely due to their leader, whereas the Tories seem to have gained quite a bit (despite Boris......)

[Crumpet]

Robertj21a said:

Labour has lost a lot in recent times, largely due to their leader, whereas the Tories seem to have gained quite a bit (despite Boris......)

I’d say the Tories have gained because of Boris! To many he’s charismatic and that goes a long way - despite his flaws. I know a lot of traditional Labour supporters who think Boris is fantastic.

[Digga]

Crumpet said:

Robertj21a said:

Labour has lost a lot in recent times, largely due to their leader, whereas the Tories seem to have gained quite a bit (despite Boris......)

I’d say the Tories have gained because of Boris! To many he’s charismatic and that goes a long way - despite his flaws. I know a lot of traditional Labour supporters who think Boris is fantastic.

^This. You can think Boris is a clown, or even a liability, you can think he cares more about self-promotion than politics, but you should not underestimate his innate ability to be 'of the people'.

This was a masterful touch last week:

[SpeckledJim]

Crumpet said:

SpeckledJim said:

I don’t think TBP will win a single seat, but I think they will draw enough votes like yours to do serious damage to the Labour Party in a lot of their seats outside London and Liverpool.

To the point it might still be worth a punt on my usual Conservative vote, hoping enough Tory faithful stick with ticking the same box as always? Not sure - tough to know if the BP will tempt traditional Tory voters in my area. Maybe if the Tories didn’t field a candidate it would make it easier....

My reading is that there are large numbers of angry Labour voters who feel betrayed who will vote Brexit Party. Partly to 'get Brexit done' and partly just to give the Labour party a bloody nose for taking the piss.

Conservative voters are both less angry than Labour voters (on average) nor do they need to switch their vote away from the Tories in order to 'get Brexit done'.

For that reason, I think TBP is a much larger problem for Labour than it is for the Tories.

Then put Farage's lamentable-but-effective 'mine's a bloody pint, mate' schtick on top and that just exacerbates the problem for Labour.

[bitchstewie]

Out of curiosity has anyone worked out how much money the Brexit Party Limited has made from donations by "registered supporters" and fees from people standing to be candidates (who found out via news and social media that they were no longer standing to be candidates as Farage apparently didn't have the good grace to contact them directly)?

[SpeckledJim]

bhstewie said:

Out of curiosity has anyone worked out how much money the Brexit Party Limited has made from donations by "registered supporters" and fees from people standing to be candidates (who found out via news and social media that they were no longer standing to be candidates as Farage apparently didn't have the good grace to contact them directly)?

I haven't the first idea, but am I correct in thinking that whatever the answer is, it will be an outrage!?

[psi310398]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I can’t speak for other seats but mine - Hampstead and Kilburn - will be vulnerable to a LibDem win because of the double whammy of Labour’s anti semitism problem and a strong Remain constituency. I know lifelong Labour voters here who just burst out laughing at the prospect of voting for Corbyn.

I’d guess that TBP would be vulnerable to the Tories running the wasted vote argument. There’s a new Tory candidate of Chinese origin who voted Remain but then worked for DEXEU, so shouldn’t offend too many Tories on either side of the Brexit divide.

[SpeckledJim]

psi310398 said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I can’t speak for other seats but mine - Hampstead and Kilburn - will be vulnerable to a LibDem win because of the double whammy of Labour’s anti semitism problem and a strong Remain constituency. I know lifelong Labour voters here who just burst out laughing at the prospect of voting for Corbyn.

I’d guess that TBP would be vulnerable to the Tories running the wasted vote argument. There’s a new Tory candidate of Chinese origin who voted Remain but then worked for DEXEU, so shouldn’t offend too many Tories on either side of the Brexit divide.

Olly Lobbins?

[psi310398]

SpeckledJim said:

Olly Lobbins?

[bitchstewie]

SpeckledJim said:

bhstewie said:

Out of curiosity has anyone worked out how much money the Brexit Party Limited has made from donations by "registered supporters" and fees from people standing to be candidates (who found out via news and social media that they were no longer standing to be candidates as Farage apparently didn't have the good grace to contact them directly)?

I haven't the first idea, but am I correct in thinking that whatever the answer is, it will be an outrage!?

I think you'd struggle to show me anywhere that I've used the word "outrage".

It's bit like the thick racist Brexit voter thing, people think they've been called it a lot more than they actually have.

I heard 3000 people applied to be candidates.

£100 each sounds a nice little earner.

[Digga]

bhstewie said:

I heard 3000 people applied to be candidates.

£100 each sounds a nice little earner.

In media and politics, I'd imagine that sort of sum goes about as far as a fart in a football stadium.

[Robertj21a]

Crumpet said:

Robertj21a said:

Labour has lost a lot in recent times, largely due to their leader, whereas the Tories seem to have gained quite a bit (despite Boris......)

I’d say the Tories have gained because of Boris! To many he’s charismatic and that goes a long way - despite his flaws. I know a lot of traditional Labour supporters who think Boris is fantastic.

I totally agree. My reference to 'despite Boris' was intended to quieten down those who can only start a rant about Boris because he's not to their personal taste.

[Robertj21a]

bhstewie said:

Out of curiosity has anyone worked out how much money the Brexit Party Limited has made from donations by "registered supporters" and fees from people standing to be candidates (who found out via news and social media that they were no longer standing to be candidates as Farage apparently didn't have the good grace to contact them directly)?

Who cares ?

[bitchstewie]

Digga said:

bhstewie said:

I heard 3000 people applied to be candidates.

£100 each sounds a nice little earner.

In media and politics, I'd imagine that sort of sum goes about as far as a fart in a football stadium.

Yes that's true.

It'll be interesting to see if they're refunded if they're no longer standing.

[Vanden Saab]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

If both Labour and lib Dems fight each other Boris could pick up a dozen or so seats in London according to a recent report. We will see...

[anonymous-user]

bhstewie said:

It'll be interesting to see if they're refunded if they're no longer standing.

only to you and one or two others methinks

[stongle]

bhstewie said:

It's bit like the thick racist Brexit voter thing, people think they've been called it a lot more than they actually have.
.

Hmmmmmm, not sure. DeepEnd does post an awful lot...

But seriously, there have been multiple versions of the insult "little englander" doing the rounds of late. The actual number of voters of this persuasion is tiny. Yes they exist, but not in vast numbers. Remain whipped up a huge bogeymen on their heads, to justify their position.

Anyone not remain was painted as extremist, arguments were called rants or fake news. They made it far more adversarial than it ever needed to be, because to justify their position they needed an enemy whom was 'bad'. No Deal likelihood in remainer heads was many times more likely than it ever was or would be.

Given the lack of actual analysis its probably fairly safe to assume the BREXIT question had a voting pattern that was of normal distribution. Most people clustered around the mid point (or no strong view either way).

We should be looking at this grouping, and working the deal most likely to meet the expectations of this group. A bit like, maybe, perhaps moving forward to an FTA or Norway style deal???

[Earthdweller]

SpeckledJim said:

bhstewie said:

Out of curiosity has anyone worked out how much money the Brexit Party Limited has made from donations by "registered supporters" and fees from people standing to be candidates (who found out via news and social media that they were no longer standing to be candidates as Farage apparently didn't have the good grace to contact them directly)?

I haven't the first idea, but am I correct in thinking that whatever the answer is, it will be an outrage!?

I really don’t know .. but I’ll wager it’s millions less than the amount of income Labour have failed to pay tax on, or Labour’s property portfolio

[Digga]

Earthdweller said:

SpeckledJim said:

bhstewie said:

Out of curiosity has anyone worked out how much money the Brexit Party Limited has made from donations by "registered supporters" and fees from people standing to be candidates (who found out via news and social media that they were no longer standing to be candidates as Farage apparently didn't have the good grace to contact them directly)?

I haven't the first idea, but am I correct in thinking that whatever the answer is, it will be an outrage!?

I really don’t know .. but I’ll wager it’s millions less than the amount of income Labour have failed to pay tax on, or Labour’s property portfolio

Yes, almost certainly less than Momentum have swindled out of willing but barely able to pay sixth form and college student Marxists-to-be.

ETA that is a criticsim of Momentum and not enthusiastic (if misguided) and politically inquisitive younger voters.