How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)
Discussion
SpeckledJim said:
gooner1 said:
Ghibli said:
Im not tetchy. Gooner was discussing WTO then moved on to a second referendum and faux suede chairs for no reason.
I guess he is just trolling and wanting to be like dontbesilly.
"Genuine question, No trolling." I guess he is just trolling and wanting to be like dontbesilly.
The above are your own words chap.
Now why in the name of Bercow do you consider it necessary to state that.
Ghibli said:
SpeckledJim said:
gooner1 said:
Ghibli said:
Im not tetchy. Gooner was discussing WTO then moved on to a second referendum and faux suede chairs for no reason.
I guess he is just trolling and wanting to be like dontbesilly.
"Genuine question, No trolling." I guess he is just trolling and wanting to be like dontbesilly.
The above are your own words chap.
Now why in the name of Bercow do you consider it necessary to state that.
Coolbanana said:
Is it so hard for you to understand? Really?
Personally, I still don't think the long term prospects should be scary, I would be very surprised if the UK couldn't reach a similar level to what it enjoyed within the EU albeit I don't believe it will do better, nor will any of the perceived EU 'problems' go away, hence my preference for Remain and enjoy the benefits.
But...it is a gamble. Not everyone has such confidence and I, nor anyone else with confidence, can make any guarantees that the UK won't sttuggle and see a marked decrease in GDP and a rung down the ladder in terms of general standard of living.
Being optimistic and shouting 'tally ho, chaps' as you go over the wall is all very well but for many, the unknowns that cannot be proven are simply not worth the risk when it has been a cushy gig as part of the EU; and it has, 5th largest economy etc. etc.
Leaving on WTO is a risk. Regardless of what anyone says. Indeed, no-one can categorically state that all will be the same, slightly worse or better without being a liar.
Anyway, TM's Deal is the Leavers best option for the most Brexit they will get. Anything other than TM's Deal will be closer ties to the EU. WTO is dead.
Leavers need to cross their fingers she gets her concessions. Squeaky bum time for ya'll today!
That pretty much sums up exactly how I feel tbh.Personally, I still don't think the long term prospects should be scary, I would be very surprised if the UK couldn't reach a similar level to what it enjoyed within the EU albeit I don't believe it will do better, nor will any of the perceived EU 'problems' go away, hence my preference for Remain and enjoy the benefits.
But...it is a gamble. Not everyone has such confidence and I, nor anyone else with confidence, can make any guarantees that the UK won't sttuggle and see a marked decrease in GDP and a rung down the ladder in terms of general standard of living.
Being optimistic and shouting 'tally ho, chaps' as you go over the wall is all very well but for many, the unknowns that cannot be proven are simply not worth the risk when it has been a cushy gig as part of the EU; and it has, 5th largest economy etc. etc.
Leaving on WTO is a risk. Regardless of what anyone says. Indeed, no-one can categorically state that all will be the same, slightly worse or better without being a liar.
Anyway, TM's Deal is the Leavers best option for the most Brexit they will get. Anything other than TM's Deal will be closer ties to the EU. WTO is dead.
Leavers need to cross their fingers she gets her concessions. Squeaky bum time for ya'll today!
Also, it will pretty much be the same bunch of politicians who have to try and negotiate trade deals if we leave with no deal.
Given the utter pigs ear they've made of Brexit negotiations do Leavers really think they're suddenly going to morph into brilliant negotiators who will pull out great deal after great deal for Team GB?
Not to mention that other countries will have seen how useless our negotiators have been and won't exactly be rushing to give us great deals.
We shot ourselves in the foot two years ago, have continued to do so, and will continue to do so for a few more years until hopefully we run out of bullets.
paulrockliffe said:
Greg66 said:
... is the alternative facts based ramblings of a sock puppet.
It seems there is an increasing number of them on these boards.
He's clearly right. The ERG went weeks ago and we saw they had less than 48 true members. You probably laughed about that at the time.It seems there is an increasing number of them on these boards.
Last night 117 MPs voted with the ERG, clearly as we know ERG membership is less than 48, lots of non-ERG members have no confidence in May.
It's rather stating the obvious that it was those non-ERG no-confidencers that submitted letters after Monday's shambles and triggered the vote yesterday.
I've seen figures of membership of the ERG range from 40 - 70, and I think many view anyone who wants May to stick to the lines set out in her own Lancaster House speech and the 2017 Tory Manifesto as a 'hard' brexiteer and ERG member which is clearly nonsense.
What's probably of more importance than the Confidence vote last night is just how many of the MP's who voted for May last night will go onto support her deal when it does eventually hit the HoC.
Both Fox & Leadsom from the Cabinet have said they won't support it, and many very senior Tory members who supported her last night have condemned the plan, and did so on Monday last.
The EU have stated and categorically that the legal text of the WA won't be changed, yet May said last night she would be going to Brussels to get the legal text in the WA changed.
With an absolute requirement of many Tory MP's and the DUP saying the legal text must be changed, it would seem that May is on a fools errand, and it's amazing that she seems to not realise this.
So when May does come back with probably nothing of any substance, stands in the House with a recording of what she said on Monday 10th December, does she expect the same people who would have voted the deal down on Tuesday 11th December had May not cancelled the inevitable 200 odd defeating vote, not do exactly the same as they would have done on the 11th Dec?
Surely if it fails she has no where to go, other than resign?
BigMon said:
That pretty much sums up exactly how I feel tbh.
Also, it will pretty much be the same bunch of politicians who have to try and negotiate trade deals if we leave with no deal.
Given the utter pigs ear they've made of Brexit negotiations do Leavers really think they're suddenly going to morph into brilliant negotiators who will pull out great deal after great deal for Team GB?
Not to mention that other countries will have seen how useless our negotiators have been and won't exactly be rushing to give us great deals.
We shot ourselves in the foot two years ago, have continued to do so, and will continue to do so for a few more years until hopefully we run out of bullets.
On that note it also seems worth mentioning that it is the same politicians who have been and would be responsible for advancing our interests within the EU if we stay. And they would mostly do it behind closed doors, and now having shown themselves too cowardly to leave.Also, it will pretty much be the same bunch of politicians who have to try and negotiate trade deals if we leave with no deal.
Given the utter pigs ear they've made of Brexit negotiations do Leavers really think they're suddenly going to morph into brilliant negotiators who will pull out great deal after great deal for Team GB?
Not to mention that other countries will have seen how useless our negotiators have been and won't exactly be rushing to give us great deals.
We shot ourselves in the foot two years ago, have continued to do so, and will continue to do so for a few more years until hopefully we run out of bullets.
SpeckledJim said:
loafer123 said:
YAADAIWYWSTFU
Took about 15 seconds but I got there.Ghibli said:
Weren't we leaving the EU because we didn't like trading under WTO with the countries that we don't have deals with.
What is wrong with keeping the agreements we already have while negotiating new deals during our withdrawal implementation period.
Is it a case of hurting the EU and ourselves in the hope that the EU will forget about the backstop and give us special treatment as a third country? While trading under WTO wouldn't they need to apply the same treatment to all countries.
Partly because we would prefer to sign deals with additional countries, partly because the EU forces us to charge ourselves tariffs to protect inefficient EU producers.What is wrong with keeping the agreements we already have while negotiating new deals during our withdrawal implementation period.
Is it a case of hurting the EU and ourselves in the hope that the EU will forget about the backstop and give us special treatment as a third country? While trading under WTO wouldn't they need to apply the same treatment to all countries.
The trouble with trying to negotiate new deals is the other party will ask when they will take effect, on being told 'not until the EU let's u out and we have no idea when or if that will ever happen' they aren't going to waste time talking to us.
JuanCarlosFandango said:
On that note it also seems worth mentioning that it is the same politicians who have been and would be responsible for advancing our interests within the EU if we stay. And they would mostly do it behind closed doors, and now having shown themselves too cowardly to leave.
Yes, that's true too.I can't really see sunny uplands in any scenario given the bunch of self-interested utter incompetents we have on all sides in the HoC.
Not sure what the answer is. Hopefully it will somehow miraculously 'come good'.
don'tbesilly said:
paulrockliffe said:
Greg66 said:
... is the alternative facts based ramblings of a sock puppet.
It seems there is an increasing number of them on these boards.
He's clearly right. The ERG went weeks ago and we saw they had less than 48 true members. You probably laughed about that at the time.It seems there is an increasing number of them on these boards.
Last night 117 MPs voted with the ERG, clearly as we know ERG membership is less than 48, lots of non-ERG members have no confidence in May.
It's rather stating the obvious that it was those non-ERG no-confidencers that submitted letters after Monday's shambles and triggered the vote yesterday.
I've seen figures of membership of the ERG range from 40 - 70, and I think many view anyone who wants May to stick to the lines set out in her own Lancaster House speech and the 2017 Tory Manifesto as a 'hard' brexiteer and ERG member which is clearly nonsense.
What's probably of more importance than the Confidence vote last night is just how many of the MP's who voted for May last night will go onto support her deal when it does eventually hit the HoC.
Both Fox & Leadsom from the Cabinet have said they won't support it, and many very senior Tory members who supported her last night have condemned the plan, and did so on Monday last.
The EU have stated and categorically that the legal text of the WA won't be changed, yet May said last night she would be going to Brussels to get the legal text in the WA changed.
With an absolute requirement of many Tory MP's and the DUP saying the legal text must be changed, it would seem that May is on a fools errand, and it's amazing that she seems to not realise this.
So when May does come back with probably nothing of any substance, stands in the House with a recording of what she said on Monday 10th December, does she expect the same people who would have voted the deal down on Tuesday 11th December had May not cancelled the inevitable 200 odd defeating vote, not do exactly the same as they would have done on the 11th Dec?
Surely if it fails she has no where to go, other than resign?
Today.
In January, when No Deal looms and the money slides towards the door, there may (shock! drama! bulls
t!) turn out to be a teensy bit of wriggle-room after all...I'm sure this will drag on long enough for us to find out.
Dr Jekyll said:
Ghibli said:
Weren't we leaving the EU because we didn't like trading under WTO with the countries that we don't have deals with.
What is wrong with keeping the agreements we already have while negotiating new deals during our withdrawal implementation period.
Is it a case of hurting the EU and ourselves in the hope that the EU will forget about the backstop and give us special treatment as a third country? While trading under WTO wouldn't they need to apply the same treatment to all countries.
Partly because we would prefer to sign deals with additional countries, partly because the EU forces us to charge ourselves tariffs to protect inefficient EU producers.What is wrong with keeping the agreements we already have while negotiating new deals during our withdrawal implementation period.
Is it a case of hurting the EU and ourselves in the hope that the EU will forget about the backstop and give us special treatment as a third country? While trading under WTO wouldn't they need to apply the same treatment to all countries.
The trouble with trying to negotiate new deals is the other party will ask when they will take effect, on being told 'not until the EU let's u out and we have no idea when or if that will ever happen' they aren't going to waste time talking to us.
don'tbesilly said:
paulrockliffe said:
Greg66 said:
... is the alternative facts based ramblings of a sock puppet.
It seems there is an increasing number of them on these boards.
He's clearly right. The ERG went weeks ago and we saw they had less than 48 true members. You probably laughed about that at the time.It seems there is an increasing number of them on these boards.
Last night 117 MPs voted with the ERG, clearly as we know ERG membership is less than 48, lots of non-ERG members have no confidence in May.
It's rather stating the obvious that it was those non-ERG no-confidencers that submitted letters after Monday's shambles and triggered the vote yesterday.
I've seen figures of membership of the ERG range from 40 - 70, and I think many view anyone who wants May to stick to the lines set out in her own Lancaster House speech and the 2017 Tory Manifesto as a 'hard' brexiteer and ERG member which is clearly nonsense.
What's probably of more importance than the Confidence vote last night is just how many of the MP's who voted for May last night will go onto support her deal when it does eventually hit the HoC.
Both Fox & Leadsom from the Cabinet have said they won't support it, and many very senior Tory members who supported her last night have condemned the plan, and did so on Monday last.
The EU have stated and categorically that the legal text of the WA won't be changed, yet May said last night she would be going to Brussels to get the legal text in the WA changed.
With an absolute requirement of many Tory MP's and the DUP saying the legal text must be changed, it would seem that May is on a fools errand, and it's amazing that she seems to not realise this.
So when May does come back with probably nothing of any substance, stands in the House with a recording of what she said on Monday 10th December, does she expect the same people who would have voted the deal down on Tuesday 11th December had May not cancelled the inevitable 200 odd defeating vote, not do exactly the same as they would have done on the 11th Dec?
Surely if it fails she has no where to go, other than resign?
Rees-Mogg, Paterson et al are taking stick, rightly so perhaps, for pointing out the theory that May got less than half of back benchers to support her. They are assuming that the Payroll, ie everyone in the Government proper, ie Ministers of State and their juniors, essentially MPs who have a defined job and paid extra have voted in support of Mrs May.
Considering politicians, in particular Conservative MPs are the most duplicitous set of bar stewards (trademark John Major) it's ever been my misfortune to encounter then that voting assumption is a helluva stretch imo.
Of course JR-M, OP etc are getting the "You lost, get over it" schtick on Twitter, which is fair enough, though That's ignoring the above point, that support in a confidence secret ballot says nothing about support for the WA.
Still nothing new on the Twittersphere where scoring empty points appears to matter.
Anyway back to the classifieds, I feel like a new set of wheels.
BigMon said:
JuanCarlosFandango said:
On that note it also seems worth mentioning that it is the same politicians who have been and would be responsible for advancing our interests within the EU if we stay. And they would mostly do it behind closed doors, and now having shown themselves too cowardly to leave.
Yes, that's true too.I can't really see sunny uplands in any scenario given the bunch of self-interested utter incompetents we have on all sides in the HoC.
Not sure what the answer is. Hopefully it will somehow miraculously 'come good'.
who could have predicted that out come?
Ghibli said:
Dr Jekyll said:
Ghibli said:
Weren't we leaving the EU because we didn't like trading under WTO with the countries that we don't have deals with.
What is wrong with keeping the agreements we already have while negotiating new deals during our withdrawal implementation period.
Is it a case of hurting the EU and ourselves in the hope that the EU will forget about the backstop and give us special treatment as a third country? While trading under WTO wouldn't they need to apply the same treatment to all countries.
Partly because we would prefer to sign deals with additional countries, partly because the EU forces us to charge ourselves tariffs to protect inefficient EU producers.What is wrong with keeping the agreements we already have while negotiating new deals during our withdrawal implementation period.
Is it a case of hurting the EU and ourselves in the hope that the EU will forget about the backstop and give us special treatment as a third country? While trading under WTO wouldn't they need to apply the same treatment to all countries.
The trouble with trying to negotiate new deals is the other party will ask when they will take effect, on being told 'not until the EU let's u out and we have no idea when or if that will ever happen' they aren't going to waste time talking to us.
Secondly, we don't have to lower tariffs on everything. If it's something we import a lot of, such as food and clothes, then it's worth it to lower the cost of living. If we import something in smaller quantities and largely from promising export markets then we could keep the tariff as a negotiating measure.
On the other had, what Remainers do tend to miss is that the advantage of trade is primarily the imports. There is a lot to be said for scrapping tariffs unilaterally, and deciding that if other countries want to distort their own markets by taxing their own consumers more fool them.
What is beyond argument is that charging UK consumers tariffs to protect Spanish fruit farmers or German coffee producers is bad for the UK full stop.
BigMon said:
Yes, that's true too.
I can't really see sunny uplands in any scenario given the bunch of self-interested utter incompetents we have on all sides in the HoC.
Not sure what the answer is. Hopefully it will somehow miraculously 'come good'.
Sounds a bit corny but my take on it is when you can't see the best way, doing the right thing is better than the line of least resistance.I can't really see sunny uplands in any scenario given the bunch of self-interested utter incompetents we have on all sides in the HoC.
Not sure what the answer is. Hopefully it will somehow miraculously 'come good'.
I can't see any sense in which the right thing to do at this point is reversing the democratic decision to leave in order to remain a member of an organisation which has shown itself completely resistant to meaningful reform, utterly inflexible and ultimately putting it's own interests as an organisation and a project way ahead of those of its citizens, member states or partners.
We can vote out every single one of our MPs in 2022 if not before. We can vote for an entirely new party of government and opposition. We can change the House of Lords. We can vote away the Royal family if we want. We probably won't do all these things but the fact that we can is important.
We can't vote out the European commission. We can't vote to change the Treaty of Rome into a trade agreement between independent states. We haven't even been able to reform its agricultural policy in the 5 decades we have been trying. And again the fact that we can't is important.
Greg66 said:
Crackie said:
Tuna said:
[b]I'm fascinated that people think the ERG have co-ordinated this vote of no confidence.
It's pretty clear they haven't - if they were leading the charge, they had enough numbers to get the letters in weeks ago. It's clear that they could not do so.
The timing is also very bad for them - a day after the vote was meant to happen, and the same day that they release their alternative proposal. They had everything lined up to 'answer' May's vote in the anticipation it would have failed.[/b]
Instead, they released the paper just as May's actions drove enough MPs over the edge and the Confidence vote has pushed their hard work completely out of the news.
It seems to me that the Confidence vote has grown out of individual MPs getting tired of the theatre (and details like the EU knowing she'd pulled the vote before they did).
At best she's been withholding information, and at worst outright lying. Given the way the Confidence vote came in it would be a surprise if she lost (I think...), but that reflects very badly on the Tory Members who are tacitly accepting a dishonest and tone deaf leader.
It's pretty clear they haven't - if they were leading the charge, they had enough numbers to get the letters in weeks ago. It's clear that they could not do so.
The timing is also very bad for them - a day after the vote was meant to happen, and the same day that they release their alternative proposal. They had everything lined up to 'answer' May's vote in the anticipation it would have failed.[/b]
Instead, they released the paper just as May's actions drove enough MPs over the edge and the Confidence vote has pushed their hard work completely out of the news.
It seems to me that the Confidence vote has grown out of individual MPs getting tired of the theatre (and details like the EU knowing she'd pulled the vote before they did).
At best she's been withholding information, and at worst outright lying. Given the way the Confidence vote came in it would be a surprise if she lost (I think...), but that reflects very badly on the Tory Members who are tacitly accepting a dishonest and tone deaf leader.
/\ this.
It seems there is an increasing number of them on these boards.
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