Discussion
Zod said:
alfie2244 said:
Zod said:
JagLover said:
Greg66 said:
JagLover said:
What we actually have is a centre right party
That says quite a bit about your politics. 
So you think the Tories are far right do you.
-3 Far Right.......... -2 Right......... -1 Centre Right.......... 0 Centre.......... +1 Centre Left.......... +2 Left.......... +3 Far Left.
The3 Cameron/Osborne Tories were around -1. The Maybot mess is around -2 (with a smattering of +2 economic po0licies to show how confused they are).
PS don't read anything into the negative and positive signs; that's just how you generally label graph axes.
alfie2244 said:
Zod said:
alfie2244 said:
Zod said:
JagLover said:
Greg66 said:
JagLover said:
What we actually have is a centre right party
That says quite a bit about your politics. So you think the Tories are far right do you.
-3 Far Right.......... -2 Right......... -1 Centre Right.......... 0 Centre.......... +1 Centre Left.......... +2 Left.......... +3 Far Left.
The3 Cameron/Osborne Tories were around -1. The Maybot mess is around -2 (with a smattering of +2 economic po0licies to show how confused they are).
PS don't read anything into the negative and positive signs; that's just how you generally label graph axes.
Most of the same trends seen elsewhere in the west. Decline of working class support for the parties of the left. Young metropolitan professionals turning to the populist left.
The only German specific feature is the low voting share of the AFD among the over 70s.
https://www.ft.com/content/e7c7d918-a17e-11e7-b797...
The only German specific feature is the low voting share of the AFD among the over 70s.
https://www.ft.com/content/e7c7d918-a17e-11e7-b797...
JagLover said:
jsf said:
Based on the latest elections, UK is looking the most integrated country in Europe with the least issues with immigrants. Which is exactly what we are, but you try explaining that to people like slasher,
Perhaps so.What we actually have is a centre right party that is listening to what the voters want. Hence why their manifesto for the last few elections has contained a pledge to limit net migration to 100k a year and also why we have only taken a token number of refugees from the ME.
If the Conservative government had taken in a million refugees prior to the June election what share of the vote would they have got?
Initiating an open door policy was not only idiotic for a country like Germany in terms of social cohesion, it was idiotic for the future prospects of the refugees themselves, it drove migration from sub sahara Africa which led to thousands of deaths in the Mediterranean and an explosion of people smugglers. The EU still haven't learned from this, which is why you now have conflict between the EU and the former eastern block countries who are closing their borders, leaving Italy in a mess.
jjlynn27 said:
Murph7355 said:
That sort of argument loses effectiveness the more people those parties attract.
Being that dismissive is exactly what ends up with Trump, Brexit etc.
Not at all, what drives people to Trump, Brexit, etc. is desperation to blame someone else. It's presumably easier to say 'see, they say it's the immigrants/darkies fault for me being stuck in a dead-end job on a minimum wage' than 'fBeing that dismissive is exactly what ends up with Trump, Brexit etc.
k, while others were studying hard, and devising plans how to get where they want to be in life, I was drinking myself to oblivion and now I'm stuck in a dead-end job on a minimum wage'. The rather simple fact is; for such people, not Brexit, not Le Pen, nor Trump will make life better. They'll still reminisce about the good old times while finding new reasons for being an abject, perpetual failure.
Before sensitive flowers start, no, I don't think that this applies to all Brexit or Trump voters.
So if you'd read and understood what I actually wrote, you may not have been so quick to dismiss it. Then again, I doubt that very much as the real problem with people who share your line of thinking is that they are very quick to dismiss anything that doesn't fit their point of view.
These parties/choices are not miraculously unearthing some previously non-voting "dead end job on minimum wage" individuals. They are attracting votes from other parties. And if they are not people on "dead end jobs on minimum wage", what excuse do you want to give to that movement?
Sticking your head in the sand, or perhaps more realistically up your own arse, is not the answer.
Merkel potentially gets it. She knows she made heavy mistakes on immigration (for example) and knows she needs to do something about that. However, that won't be the only thing. And the real question is how compatible are the solutions with her vision for the EU?
Personally I don't see them being compatible at all. So I can only see a couple of options...
1) Keep kicking it into the long grass and hope it all goes away/someone else takes it on after she retires. I don't see that working without parties like the AFD gaining more ground (a la UKIP) or (possibly more likely) one of the other parties seizing the opportunity and offering something different without AFD's baggage.
2) Change some fundamental views on key cornerstones of the EU (immigration policies, FoM etc). Probably good for everyone concerned. But not a path the key players have ever accepted to date.
Of course she may be able to reconcile the views and win people back. If she manages that, my cap will be doffed. But she has no chance. She will take option (1). I wouldn't think she'll want more than this one other term anyway.
Derek Smith said:
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I'm surprised Merkel's vote stayed up given the criticisms of here immigration policy. I would suggest the real story is that she's stayed in power.
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Bad choice of words perhaps Derek, but Merkel's vote didn't "stay up". It's the worst result her party has had for a long time.I'm surprised Merkel's vote stayed up given the criticisms of here immigration policy. I would suggest the real story is that she's stayed in power.
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Derek Smith said:
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The surge in the extreme right vote is hardly surprising. Just the opposite in fact. We are in the midst of an epic movement of people, one that will be the subject of television programmes in years to come. European countries have been targets of terror attacks against the general population on a scale that (the others) have not seen. Baader Meinhof in the 70s bombed and killed in various parts of Europe but it was a group, and there was a possible end.
The response that I expected was that the far right would do well, and certainly better than they have done...
This sounds like you convincing yourself there is no problem. I think this is what a lot of the EU leaders have been doing for a long time and it is very, very dangerous.The surge in the extreme right vote is hardly surprising. Just the opposite in fact. We are in the midst of an epic movement of people, one that will be the subject of television programmes in years to come. European countries have been targets of terror attacks against the general population on a scale that (the others) have not seen. Baader Meinhof in the 70s bombed and killed in various parts of Europe but it was a group, and there was a possible end.
The response that I expected was that the far right would do well, and certainly better than they have done...
If a far right group ever got into power in any major nation then it will already be waaaaaaaay too late and everyone will suffer. They have to look at the trends and motivations. And then do something meaningful before far right parties are even close to getting meaningful seats.
This was discussed on another thread ref UKIP (who were never as dangerous as the likes of the AFD IMO). Their take of the vote grew all but exponentially. This does not happen on the back of jj's "dead end job on minimum wage" demographic. Proper and fundamental change needs to be offered up to stem that tide IMO. Cameron half got that in offering the referendum. Unfortunately (for him and those of a Remain persuasion) he also went about the referendum in a half arsed way and so lost it. But that's a different issue.
Derek Smith said:
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Edited to add: some of the reports we've been getting in the UK about Germany have been way off beam. It is no surprise that there's been a rise in the votes for the right given the circumstances. Just because it is Germany, we get visions of nazi sympathisers, not to mention images to support. However, it is entirely possible that many of the voters are not far right in politics, they just want a different approach to immigration.
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Almost certainly correct.Edited to add: some of the reports we've been getting in the UK about Germany have been way off beam. It is no surprise that there's been a rise in the votes for the right given the circumstances. Just because it is Germany, we get visions of nazi sympathisers, not to mention images to support. However, it is entirely possible that many of the voters are not far right in politics, they just want a different approach to immigration.
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How did Merkel manage to get so far removed from reality that she could not see this when she opened the flood gates?
Derek Smith said:
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The collapse of the UKIP vote is, presumably, down to all the hopes of their voters being realised and immigration coming to an end. This will be confirmed/rejected when reality finally hits them. The rise in the left vote in the UK is, I think, down to the appalling tory party leadership and infighting. Once they've settled (if I suppose) then the vote will drop as long as it is not a far right PM....
You're assuming people only voted UKIP as they were anti-immigration. This is not the case....
The collapse of the UKIP vote is, presumably, down to all the hopes of their voters being realised and immigration coming to an end. This will be confirmed/rejected when reality finally hits them. The rise in the left vote in the UK is, I think, down to the appalling tory party leadership and infighting. Once they've settled (if I suppose) then the vote will drop as long as it is not a far right PM....
I think people voted that way as they were anti-uncontrolled immigration. This is very different. But it's also why May *must* ensure that we are seen to be putting controls around the influx that allow a reversal later if we have this transitional arrangement. GV seems to be unimpressed with the need for people to register. He needs to smell the coffee more than anyone at present IMO.
UKIP voters were also generally anti-EU. So more than just even anti-uncontrolled immigration.
If (and I don't think even May's that stupid) the transitional arrangement is dicked about with and protracted, I could easily see a UKIP-esque movement rising very quickly or, more likely, Corbyn seizing the initiative. He's already making noises about being more hard line Brexit if his comments on the Single Market are to be taken at face value.
I tend to agree on the "left vote", but remember that the Tories took their biggest share of the vote for 20+yrs. Even WITH May trying to commit harakiri during the GE. With someone with even an ounce more sense, the Tories would have stormed that election. Spineless though he is, Cameron would not have scraped by. And like him or not, I would suggest even Boris would have walked it.
I think there was also a one-off protest vote element to the UKIP vote which in and of itself has been played out - it's done and gone, but existed in the moment. Protest against parties that people no longer felt represented by and, also, protest against politics and the system in general that many felt disenfranchised by.
Murph7355 said:
How did Merkel manage to get so far removed from reality that she could not see this when she opened the flood gates?
.
Merkel has always been a politician who follows public opinion rather than leads it. It looked the most popular policy at the time, so she did it, not wanting the symbolism of closing the border. What she should have remembered is that it would be a policy that would be far more popular with many non-CPD voters than with CPD ones..
The young metropolitan professionals applauded her decision and then voted for the SPD or The left.
Digga said:
I think there was also a one-off protest vote element to the UKIP vote which in and of itself has been played out - it's done and gone, but existed in the moment. Protest against parties that people no longer felt represented by and, also, protest against politics and the system in general that many felt disenfranchised by.
I don't see that it's fully "gone" just yet. But what I do see is that the main parties will be ultra-careful about reneging on the directions that led to that UKIP rise as the other main party will simply capitalise on it (and win). Once we've properly left the EU, then I'd say this instance is over.
JagLover said:
Murph7355 said:
How did Merkel manage to get so far removed from reality that she could not see this when she opened the flood gates?
.
Merkel has always been a politician who follows public opinion rather than leads it. It looked the most popular policy at the time, so she did it, not wanting the symbolism of closing the border. What she should have remembered is that it would be a policy that would be far more popular with many non-CPD voters than with CPD ones..
The young metropolitan professionals applauded her decision and then voted for the SPD or The left.
She has a problem now, she can't ignore the more Germany centric parties anymore, she is about to experience what its like to rule over a democracy where you have to argue your position. What coalition emerges will tell us more, it could drag on to the end of the year before Germany has a government.
This will have implications for the EU project, it may just have seen its strongest advocate neutered to a certain extent. This will have implications for Macron in France. This will have implications for the future of the Euro.
The SPD vote also collapsed, they too had their worst result since WW2, so I don't agree anyone went to the SPD from the CDU, the minor parties plus the new AFD took those votes.
Unlike UKIP, I think there is potential for the AFD to build a base from this election, as Derek pointed out, they are not predominantly NAZI's, they are the left behind who have had no voice. To not even contemplate talking to them and to push the narrative they are all racist fascists is a major political error, because the people who voted that way know they are not.
jsf said:
Unlike UKIP, I think there is potential for the AFD to build a base from this election, as Derek pointed out, they are not predominantly NAZI's, they are the left behind who have had no voice. To not even contemplate talking to them and to push the narrative they are all racist fascists is a major political error, because the people who voted that way know they are not.
Good comment. A similar 'people who just feel ignored' is evident in so many other countries too.
Murph7355 said:
The thing is jj, the more people that are attracted to vote that way, the less of them are likely to be stuck in "dead end jobs on minimum wage". Unless you have demographic data to prove that the only people voting that way are in "dead end jobs on minimum wage". Which you do not.
And? You can have number of non-no-hopers double from 1 to 2 and number of no-hopers go from 10 to 30. So I'll ask again, and?Murph7355 said:
So if you'd read and understood what I actually wrote, you may not have been so quick to dismiss it. Then again, I doubt that very much as the real problem with people who share your line of thinking is that they are very quick to dismiss anything that doesn't fit their point of view.
Ok, you could have this little monologue with yourself, to yourself, and then come up with a conclusion. Murph7355 said:
These parties/choices are not miraculously unearthing some previously non-voting "dead end job on minimum wage" individuals. They are attracting votes from other parties. And if they are not people on "dead end jobs on minimum wage", what excuse do you want to give to that movement?
They are indeed attracting voters from other parties. And? Murph7355 said:
Sticking your head in the sand, or perhaps more realistically up your own arse, is not the answer.
At least you dropped the idiotic 'it's cause your job' angle. Don't assume that people are looking for answers in the same place that you do. Murph7355 said:
Merkel potentially gets it. She knows she made heavy mistakes on immigration (for example) and knows she needs to do something about that. However, that won't be the only thing. And the real question is how compatible are the solutions with her vision for the EU?
Personally I don't see them being compatible at all. So I can only see a couple of options...
1) Keep kicking it into the long grass and hope it all goes away/someone else takes it on after she retires. I don't see that working without parties like the AFD gaining more ground (a la UKIP) or (possibly more likely) one of the other parties seizing the opportunity and offering something different without AFD's baggage.
2) Change some fundamental views on key cornerstones of the EU (immigration policies, FoM etc). Probably good for everyone concerned. But not a path the key players have ever accepted to date.
Of course she may be able to reconcile the views and win people back. If she manages that, my cap will be doffed. But she has no chance. She will take option (1). I wouldn't think she'll want more than this one other term anyway.
Personally I don't see them being compatible at all. So I can only see a couple of options...
1) Keep kicking it into the long grass and hope it all goes away/someone else takes it on after she retires. I don't see that working without parties like the AFD gaining more ground (a la UKIP) or (possibly more likely) one of the other parties seizing the opportunity and offering something different without AFD's baggage.
2) Change some fundamental views on key cornerstones of the EU (immigration policies, FoM etc). Probably good for everyone concerned. But not a path the key players have ever accepted to date.
Of course she may be able to reconcile the views and win people back. If she manages that, my cap will be doffed. But she has no chance. She will take option (1). I wouldn't think she'll want more than this one other term anyway.
In other news, AfD chairwoman walks out of press conference and refuses to join parliament because she doesn't condone racism within AfD. Them lefties eh, they'll never get it.
jsf said:
The SPD vote also collapsed, they too had their worst result since WW2, so I don't agree anyone went to the SPD from the CDU, the minor parties plus the new AFD took those votes.
I think you misunderstood that particular point.What I was saying is that a government cannot merely look at opinion polls to see if a certain decision will increase their share of the vote. A policy that appeals to those who mostly don't vote for you in any circumstances might be both popular and have little effect on your vote share.
That to me was the Merkel refugees welcome policy. Most polls at the time showed support for the policy I believe, but it has caused a significant slump in her actual votes.
Robertj21a said:
jsf said:
Unlike UKIP, I think there is potential for the AFD to build a base from this election, as Derek pointed out, they are not predominantly NAZI's, they are the left behind who have had no voice. To not even contemplate talking to them and to push the narrative they are all racist fascists is a major political error, because the people who voted that way know they are not.
Good comment. A similar 'people who just feel ignored' is evident in so many other countries too.
You can call them racists and Nazi sympathisers all you like, but if they don't feel you care what they're concerned about, why should they care what you think of them?
Failure to confront issues such as uncontrolled immigration and the more unsavoury aspects of Islam create the conditions for right-wing populism, but demonization of moderate people for whom these things are a worry will drive them to vote in greater numbers for populist parties.
And that happens on the left and the right, Corbyn and Momentum are, in a large part a failure of the New Labour project to encompass or acknowledge the views of the old hardliners in the party.
JagLover said:
I think you misunderstood that particular point.
What I was saying is that a government cannot merely look at opinion polls to see if a certain decision will increase their share of the vote. A policy that appeals to those who mostly don't vote for you in any circumstances might be both popular and have little effect on your vote share.
That to me was the Merkel refugees welcome policy. Most polls at the time showed support for the policy I believe, but it has caused a significant slump in her actual votes.
OK, I get what you mean there.What I was saying is that a government cannot merely look at opinion polls to see if a certain decision will increase their share of the vote. A policy that appeals to those who mostly don't vote for you in any circumstances might be both popular and have little effect on your vote share.
That to me was the Merkel refugees welcome policy. Most polls at the time showed support for the policy I believe, but it has caused a significant slump in her actual votes.
jjlynn27 said:
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And? You can have number of non-no-hopers double from 1 to 2 and number of no-hopers go from 10 to 30. So I'll ask again, and?
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And eventually you get your arse handed to you.And? You can have number of non-no-hopers double from 1 to 2 and number of no-hopers go from 10 to 30. So I'll ask again, and?
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Case in point - Brexit.
Your style of dismissive, ultra-arrogant attitude caused it you chump. People just like you ignoring the "no-hopers" (I sometimes sit and think your grasp of the language isn't great or you're simply trolling with some of the things you post). Weaned on the EU and unable to cope with not having it there for you.
And you will never be able to see it.
Enjoy your plan B. You're going to need it. I'd recommend getting at least up to plan D
Murph7355 said:
jjlynn27 said:
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And? You can have number of non-no-hopers double from 1 to 2 and number of no-hopers go from 10 to 30. So I'll ask again, and?
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And eventually you get your arse handed to you.And? You can have number of non-no-hopers double from 1 to 2 and number of no-hopers go from 10 to 30. So I'll ask again, and?
...
Case in point - Brexit.
Your style of dismissive, ultra-arrogant attitude caused it you chump. People just like you ignoring the "no-hopers" (I sometimes sit and think your grasp of the language isn't great or you're simply trolling with some of the things you post). Weaned on the EU and unable to cope with not having it there for you.
And you will never be able to see it.
Enjoy your plan B. You're going to need it. I'd recommend getting at least up to plan D
She really ain't you know
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