Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2
Discussion
EddieSteadyGo said:
eharding said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
I mentioned it a few days ago, but I do wonder if these reserves might hold the key to leveraging Russia into changing its negotiating position. For example, the US could declare that 1% of the held reserves would be transferred to Ukraine each day the war was ongoing, and it could include metrics which accelerated the rate of transfer depending upon lack of progress or what it might term "lack of goodwill". Alternatively, any transfer of funds could be paused if, for example, a ceasefire were to be agreed, or terrority vacated.
If done properly, it could create the kind of leverage which Putin might appreciate.
I like this idea. One of the rules could be another 1% deducted and sent to Ukraine for each time any Kremlin official mentions the word "nuclear" in a public statement, and double bubble at weekends. If done properly, it could create the kind of leverage which Putin might appreciate.
So once 15% or so had been transferred, I think it would become a very hot issue in Russia political circles. And the good thing would be, even if they stopped the war at that point, they still wouldn't get the 15% back. Cooperating would just prevent them losing any more. Once it got to 30% I think it would feel painful. Putin would like the cold, hard logic
EddieSteadyGo said:
At present, they think they are going to get that money back once the war ends. I don't think they believe the threats to transfer it or retain it.
So once 15% or so had been transferred, I think it would become a very hot issue in Russia political circles. And the good thing would be, even if they stopped the war at that point, they still wouldn't get the 15% back. Cooperating would just prevent them losing any more. Once it got to 30% I think it would feel painful. Putin would like the cold, hard logic
I think escalating from freezing, to stealing their "tings"; is a bit of a slippery slope for any Western govt. So once 15% or so had been transferred, I think it would become a very hot issue in Russia political circles. And the good thing would be, even if they stopped the war at that point, they still wouldn't get the 15% back. Cooperating would just prevent them losing any more. Once it got to 30% I think it would feel painful. Putin would like the cold, hard logic
Better to use a policy instrument like tiering (as the ECB does to EU banks), and apply negative rates (or more negative @ the ECB, BoJ etc) for naughty
s we don't like. Since they can't transfer it out, they're screwed.
Edited by stongle on Tuesday 17th May 16:19
vonuber said:
jsf said:
I wouldn't call paying for their vast majority of export income leakage.
So what's the alternative? Turn off the power for a large part of Europe over night? What effect do you think that would have?stongle said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
At present, they think they are going to get that money back once the war ends. I don't think they believe the threats to transfer it or retain it.
So once 15% or so had been transferred, I think it would become a very hot issue in Russia political circles. And the good thing would be, even if they stopped the war at that point, they still wouldn't get the 15% back. Cooperating would just prevent them losing any more. Once it got to 30% I think it would feel painful. Putin would like the cold, hard logic
I think escalating from freezing, to stealing their "tings"; is a bit of a slippery slope for any Western govt. So once 15% or so had been transferred, I think it would become a very hot issue in Russia political circles. And the good thing would be, even if they stopped the war at that point, they still wouldn't get the 15% back. Cooperating would just prevent them losing any more. Once it got to 30% I think it would feel painful. Putin would like the cold, hard logic
Better to use a policy instrument like tiering (as the ECB does to EU banks), and apply negative rates for naughty
s we don't like. Since they can't transfer it out, they're screwed.
Apologies if this has been covered in the previous thousands of pages. With regard getting the grain out of Ukraine, the ports being blockaded etc, what's stopping them using trains and pulling out that way? I appreciate that Russia has been targeting the railway network with missiles, but keeping a railway line closed for any length of time is actually very difficult (unless you're Network Rail, apparently).
Yertis said:
Apologies if this has been covered in the previous thousands of pages. With regard getting the grain out of Ukraine, the ports being blockaded etc, what's stopping them using trains and pulling out that way? I appreciate that Russia has been targeting the railway network with missiles, but keeping a railway line closed for any length of time is actually very difficult (unless you're Network Rail, apparently).
I think the Russians have been stealing a lot of the grain etc.. rxe said:
Footage of strikes that are claimed to be Brimstone are appearing on Telegram. Looks like a Javelin hit, but several at the same time. Apparently they’re designed to take out columns - fire a handful and the missiles talk to each other so they hit different targets.
Can’t you paste a link?Would be interesting to see
rxe said:
Footage of strikes that are claimed to be Brimstone are appearing on Telegram. Looks like a Javelin hit, but several at the same time. Apparently they’re designed to take out columns - fire a handful and the missiles talk to each other so they hit different targets.
The missiles don’t talk to each other, they’re programmed prior to launch.Jhonno said:
Yertis said:
Apologies if this has been covered in the previous thousands of pages. With regard getting the grain out of Ukraine, the ports being blockaded etc, what's stopping them using trains and pulling out that way? I appreciate that Russia has been targeting the railway network with missiles, but keeping a railway line closed for any length of time is actually very difficult (unless you're Network Rail, apparently).
I think the Russians have been stealing a lot of the grain etc.. There's about 40M tonnes of stored grain [I know!], half of which needs to go before July, which means 'all available routes must now be used' to do that. Exacerbated a little by the change in rail guages of course. The EU, G7, UN et al have all been working on different pressure points with Russia on it I think.
rxe said:
Yep, that works.rxe said:
Footage of strikes that are claimed to be Brimstone are appearing on Telegram. Looks like a Javelin hit, but several at the same time. Apparently they’re designed to take out columns - fire a handful and the missiles talk to each other so they hit different targets.
Excuse my ignorance but how does the brimstone differentiate between say a BTG and a bus? These are 'over the horizon' missiles correct?fblm said:
rxe said:
Footage of strikes that are claimed to be Brimstone are appearing on Telegram. Looks like a Javelin hit, but several at the same time. Apparently they’re designed to take out columns - fire a handful and the missiles talk to each other so they hit different targets.
Excuse my ignorance but how does the brimstone differentiate between say a BTG and a bus? These are 'over the horizon' missiles correct?Garvin said:
fblm said:
rxe said:
Footage of strikes that are claimed to be Brimstone are appearing on Telegram. Looks like a Javelin hit, but several at the same time. Apparently they’re designed to take out columns - fire a handful and the missiles talk to each other so they hit different targets.
Excuse my ignorance but how does the brimstone differentiate between say a BTG and a bus? These are 'over the horizon' missiles correct?stongle said:
I did say, there was no ban on buying it. Just lots of noise on paying for it (or how too).......
I also explained the differences in the UK position Vs. the EU's (and some of that isn't exactly great judgement on our behalf!).
We all know they (& we) aren't coming off the black stuff and gas anywhere near the fanciful dates being banded about. And that remains a risk to the efforts to limit Putin's war chest.
You can't honestly think letting politicians solve all this is a good idea?
You said it was legal but not 'in spirit of the rules' etc... which may or may not be true but it's irrelevant as everyone damn well knew they couldn't slap a blanket ban on buying gas and energy from the Russians anyway but just made a lot of noise about it. And given even the countries who didn't exactly really need to buy said russian hydrocarbons as that supply is small as an overall part of their supply haven't stopped doing so, it's blustering hypocrisy to continue to make a big song and dance about those who would face a far greater issue in doing so accusing them of 'not doing enough to stop funding the russian aggression'....I also explained the differences in the UK position Vs. the EU's (and some of that isn't exactly great judgement on our behalf!).
We all know they (& we) aren't coming off the black stuff and gas anywhere near the fanciful dates being banded about. And that remains a risk to the efforts to limit Putin's war chest.
You can't honestly think letting politicians solve all this is a good idea?
And no I don't think it's entirely a good idea to let the politicians solve all those problems you listed but there isn't exactly a better alternative is there? Other than the politicians solving that (or attempting to however badly), you can't exactly empower the central bankers or anyone else realistically with essentially dictatorial powers (or at minimum able to drive home vast changes without a great deal of oversight) to attempt to fix those problems as you'd have bloody civil war in most of the western countries if that was tried.
stongle said:
I think escalating from freezing, to stealing their "tings"; is a bit of a slippery slope for any Western govt.
^ this. It's already quite a slippery slope with freezing central bank assets as it is that the US might well have stirred up a bit of a longer term pandora's box.Garvin said:
rxe said:
Yep, that works.Garvin said:
Brimstone has a milimetric radar seeker which has extremely fine resolution and image recognition software with algorithms to look for ‘tank like targets’ in its field of view. To Brimstone a bus looks completely different to a tank - it’s not perfect but it’s pretty damn good.
I think these are Brimstone 1s - at least that's the debris that has been seen thus far.andy_s said:
Jhonno said:
Yertis said:
Apologies if this has been covered in the previous thousands of pages. With regard getting the grain out of Ukraine, the ports being blockaded etc, what's stopping them using trains and pulling out that way? I appreciate that Russia has been targeting the railway network with missiles, but keeping a railway line closed for any length of time is actually very difficult (unless you're Network Rail, apparently).
I think the Russians have been stealing a lot of the grain etc.. There's about 40M tonnes of stored grain [I know!], half of which needs to go before July, which means 'all available routes must now be used' to do that. Exacerbated a little by the change in rail guages of course. The EU, G7, UN et al have all been working on different pressure points with Russia on it I think.
However, whatever it takes, get the grain out (that was destined for export). Road/rail/Air and indeed sea - whatever. Realistically, those quantities aren't getting shifted without marine transport. They're just too huge. If that means the UN making it damned clear this is a global humanitarian effort and therefore port access WILL be enabled, f
k Putin. Art0ir said:
Garvin said:
Brimstone has a milimetric radar seeker which has extremely fine resolution and image recognition software with algorithms to look for ‘tank like targets’ in its field of view. To Brimstone a bus looks completely different to a tank - it’s not perfect but it’s pretty damn good.
I think these are Brimstone 1s - at least that's the debris that has been seen thus far.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff