Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2
Discussion
isaldiri said:
^ this. It's already quite a slippery slope with freezing central bank assets as it is that the US might well have stirred up a bit of a longer term pandora's box.
But there are egregious wrongs whichever way you look in this war. With land been taken illegally, civilians made into refugees, or worse raped and killed. Billions of pounds of damage being caused to totally innocent people. And we even have nuclear obliteration being threatened every 48 hours.So this is one of those moral conundrums where being prepared to do something which technically might be "wrong", in order to bring about a more swift end to the war, might then become the right thing to do. And the aim isn't to steal anyone's money - but to create political leverage, using something which might get the Kremlin's attention, to prevent heinous crimes in the here and now.
liner33 said:
The US has committed $53b in two months so not cheap for them either.
To grind down the conventional forces of a peer competitor without pictures on the nightly news of dead American servicemen being flown home in a coffin? This is the bargain of the century, financially and politically. Russia has stupidly blundered into a brutal, high attrition war from which it cannot extricate itself without some considerable political pain and at a time leadership is too weak to make that difficult decision required to save it's military. From peer competitor to the end of worrying about Russia as a superpower in one generation. They might as well give up their permanent place on the UN security council to India.
Garvin said:
Art0ir said:
Garvin said:
Brimstone has a milimetric radar seeker which has extremely fine resolution and image recognition software with algorithms to look for ‘tank like targets’ in its field of view. To Brimstone a bus looks completely different to a tank - it’s not perfect but it’s pretty damn good.
I think these are Brimstone 1s - at least that's the debris that has been seen thus far.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1cS8zhweq4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmYqq3qehDE
Garvin said:
Art0ir said:
Garvin said:
Brimstone has a milimetric radar seeker which has extremely fine resolution and image recognition software with algorithms to look for ‘tank like targets’ in its field of view. To Brimstone a bus looks completely different to a tank - it’s not perfect but it’s pretty damn good.
I think these are Brimstone 1s - at least that's the debris that has been seen thus far.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1cS8zhweq4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmYqq3qehDE
Edited by jesusbuiltmycar on Tuesday 17th May 18:08
Sway said:
andy_s said:
Jhonno said:
Yertis said:
Apologies if this has been covered in the previous thousands of pages. With regard getting the grain out of Ukraine, the ports being blockaded etc, what's stopping them using trains and pulling out that way? I appreciate that Russia has been targeting the railway network with missiles, but keeping a railway line closed for any length of time is actually very difficult (unless you're Network Rail, apparently).
I think the Russians have been stealing a lot of the grain etc.. There's about 40M tonnes of stored grain [I know!], half of which needs to go before July, which means 'all available routes must now be used' to do that. Exacerbated a little by the change in rail guages of course. The EU, G7, UN et al have all been working on different pressure points with Russia on it I think.
However, whatever it takes, get the grain out (that was destined for export). Road/rail/Air and indeed sea - whatever. Realistically, those quantities aren't getting shifted without marine transport. They're just too huge. If that means the UN making it damned clear this is a global humanitarian effort and therefore port access WILL be enabled, f
k Putin. https://youtu.be/dTGKyDpFvxg
Yertis said:
Apologies if this has been covered in the previous thousands of pages. With regard getting the grain out of Ukraine, the ports being blockaded etc, what's stopping them using trains and pulling out that way? I appreciate that Russia has been targeting the railway network with missiles, but keeping a railway line closed for any length of time is actually very difficult (unless you're Network Rail, apparently).
War on the rocks podcast covered this. Trains are maxed out already and the cost is a multiple of shipping. isaldiri said:
1. You said it was legal but not 'in spirit of the rules' etc... which may or may not be true
2. And no I don't think it's entirely a good idea to let the politicians solve all those problems you listed but there isn't exactly a better alternative is there? Other than the politicians solving that (or attempting to however badly), you can't exactly empower the central bankers or anyone else realistically with essentially dictatorial powers (or at minimum able to drive home vast changes without a great deal of oversight) to attempt to fix those problems as you'd have bloody civil war in most of the western countries if that was tried.
3. ^ this. It's already quite a slippery slope with freezing central bank assets as it is that the US might well have stirred up a bit of a longer term pandora's box.
1. I didn't say "spirit of the rules", I said "spirit of the efforts to add economic pressure"...... Big difference. Whilst I enjoy a "spirited" internet punch up, and could argue with myself all day long - it's a good idea to fully check the words (verbose as it may be). You also realise I'm saying they won't or can't get off the oil/gas BECAUSE of the structure of their industrial complexity? What the moral rights and wrongs of this are a bit mute, the issue is the fragility of coalition of states who need to be on board to add the economic pressure. Once the cracks are in, the sanction regime losses it's effect. 2. And no I don't think it's entirely a good idea to let the politicians solve all those problems you listed but there isn't exactly a better alternative is there? Other than the politicians solving that (or attempting to however badly), you can't exactly empower the central bankers or anyone else realistically with essentially dictatorial powers (or at minimum able to drive home vast changes without a great deal of oversight) to attempt to fix those problems as you'd have bloody civil war in most of the western countries if that was tried.
3. ^ this. It's already quite a slippery slope with freezing central bank assets as it is that the US might well have stirred up a bit of a longer term pandora's box.
2. The point is, the Central Bankers don't have any more ammo to deal with even a few of the issues. The big bills are going to start landing. Ergo MORE pressure on fragile coalition.
We all know who carries the most pain, so perhaps suggesting a state being invaded takes "one for the team"; is a bit of a stretch.
3. Freezing assets isn't new or specific to Russia. Ask Venezuela. Rather than stealing it (which is getting on a sticky wicket); there are plenty of creative ways to add the veneer of "non-theft". You'll get litigated, but Putin will be looooooong gone before that ever sees the light of day.
Edited by stongle on Tuesday 17th May 18:25
Edited by stongle on Tuesday 17th May 18:26
isaldiri said:
^ this. It's already quite a slippery slope with freezing central bank assets as it is that the US might well have stirred up a bit of a longer term pandora's box.
Nah, they can fk off.That seized money will be used to help pay reparations, the rest can be bled out of the oligarchs and putins assets after someone puts a bullet through his tiny brain.
BikeBikeBIke said:
Yertis said:
Apologies if this has been covered in the previous thousands of pages. With regard getting the grain out of Ukraine, the ports being blockaded etc, what's stopping them using trains and pulling out that way? I appreciate that Russia has been targeting the railway network with missiles, but keeping a railway line closed for any length of time is actually very difficult (unless you're Network Rail, apparently).
War on the rocks podcast covered this. Trains are maxed out already and the cost is a multiple of shipping. Handy for Poland and anything further west given current events.
EddieSteadyGo said:
isaldiri said:
^ this. It's already quite a slippery slope with freezing central bank assets as it is that the US might well have stirred up a bit of a longer term pandora's box.
But there are egregious wrongs whichever way you look in this war. With land been taken illegally, civilians made into refugees, or worse raped and killed. Billions of pounds of damage being caused to totally innocent people. And we even have nuclear obliteration being threatened every 48 hours.So this is one of those moral conundrums where being prepared to do something which technically might be "wrong", in order to bring about a more swift end to the war, might then become the right thing to do. And the aim isn't to steal anyone's money - but to create political leverage, using something which might get the Kremlin's attention, to prevent heinous crimes in the here and now.
Short term sure it might be a useful lever to force the Russians to react. It's also however a move that on top of existing central bank freezes is certain to cause a lot of other countries, especially those not completely wedded to doing the US's will like the UK (and especially for China longer term) to attempt to find a counter for.
Garvin said:
Art0ir said:
Garvin said:
Brimstone has a milimetric radar seeker which has extremely fine resolution and image recognition software with algorithms to look for ‘tank like targets’ in its field of view. To Brimstone a bus looks completely different to a tank - it’s not perfect but it’s pretty damn good.
I think these are Brimstone 1s - at least that's the debris that has been seen thus far.
jesusbuiltmycar said:
This brimstone demo from 2013 is pretty. impressive:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1cS8zhweq4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmYqq3qehDE
Holy crap. They've literally stuck the Sea Spear on a truck.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1cS8zhweq4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmYqq3qehDE
Edited by jesusbuiltmycar on Tuesday 17th May 18:08
Garvin said:
fblm said:
rxe said:
Footage of strikes that are claimed to be Brimstone are appearing on Telegram. Looks like a Javelin hit, but several at the same time. Apparently they’re designed to take out columns - fire a handful and the missiles talk to each other so they hit different targets.
Excuse my ignorance but how does the brimstone differentiate between say a BTG and a bus? These are 'over the horizon' missiles correct?fblm said:
Very cool thanks. So when a drone spots a, er, herd of tanks, someone let's the brimstone crew know and they give the missile rough coordinates and just fire it off over the horizon in roughly the right direction and it finds the tanks on its own from there ?
That IS very cool. Given the number of Russian tanks, there has to be a temptation just to launch a load in the general direction of the Russian lines and see what they find….fblm said:
Very cool thanks. So when a drone spots a, er, herd of tanks, someone let's the brimstone crew know and they give the missile rough coordinates and just fire it off over the horizon in roughly the right direction and it finds the tanks on its own from there ?
Pretty much. The missile is told where it is and where to go. It can be launched at quite an off bore sight angle, will turn onto the correct course and at a distance before the target switch on its seeker, search and acquire the ‘requested’ target and engage. The tandem shaped charge warhead will ‘shrug off’ any explosive reactive armour and ‘drill’ through any thickness of remaining armour a tank may have.Garvin said:
Pretty much. The missile is told where it is and where to go. It can be launched at quite an off bore sight angle, will turn onto the correct course and at a distance before the target switch on its seeker, search and acquire the ‘requested’ target and engage. The tandem shaped charge warhead will ‘shrug off’ any explosive reactive armour and ‘drill’ through any thickness of remaining armour a tank may have.
I've just read that twitter thread about how the EC handled the decision to pay in rubles and it's pretty shameless, especially from the French.
Can someone explain to me like an idiot why the French are so involved? I can get the stance of Germany to a degree given their gas dependance, but France?
Can someone explain to me like an idiot why the French are so involved? I can get the stance of Germany to a degree given their gas dependance, but France?
vonuber said:
I've just read that twitter thread about how the EC handled the decision to pay in rubles and it's pretty shameless, especially from the French.
Can someone explain to me like an idiot why the French are so involved? I can get the stance of Germany to a degree given their gas dependance, but France?
Cheese eating surrender monkeysCan someone explain to me like an idiot why the French are so involved? I can get the stance of Germany to a degree given their gas dependance, but France?
vonuber said:
I've just read that twitter thread about how the EC handled the decision to pay in rubles and it's pretty shameless, especially from the French.
Can someone explain to me like an idiot why the French are so involved? I can get the stance of Germany to a degree given their gas dependance, but France?
French banking sector are up to their eyeballs in Russian Debt, just as they were with Greece when they were about to default and were forced not to, whilst the French got their money back through the "rescue package for Greece".Can someone explain to me like an idiot why the French are so involved? I can get the stance of Germany to a degree given their gas dependance, but France?
[mark blyth]It's all about saving the banks folks.[/mark blyth]
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