Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2
Discussion
BikeBikeBIke said:
sisu said:
This is how it sits tonight. What will be interesting next week is how the battle of Kherson plays out, the Russians only have 5 battalions in the Meltipol and Kherson region where the ye olde T-62s are stationed. Everything is deep into the east of Ukraine so a move West would take men and equipment away from the Donbas.
Yeah, there's a lot happening on the ground now. Seems that Russia's focus on the North might have a cost in the South. Personally, I hope this is the beginning of and offensive from Ukraine that rolls Russia back.
It seems Russia will not be defeated into a truce until UA can pinpoint and destroy the artillery Russia keep pounding them with.
Presumably with shared satellite imagery (or is this too delayed) and drones, the UA know where it is but don’t have the numbers of artillery themselves to counter it?
Presumably with shared satellite imagery (or is this too delayed) and drones, the UA know where it is but don’t have the numbers of artillery themselves to counter it?
Adam. said:
It seems Russia will not be defeated into a truce until UA can pinpoint and destroy the artillery Russia keep pounding them with.
Presumably with shared satellite imagery (or is this too delayed) and drones, the UA know where it is but don’t have the numbers of artillery themselves to counter it?
Hopefully this is now being resolved with further shipments of long range weaponry.Presumably with shared satellite imagery (or is this too delayed) and drones, the UA know where it is but don’t have the numbers of artillery themselves to counter it?
vonuber said:
Art0ir said:
Rheinmetall and other German defence giants could arm Ukraine twice over if they got the green light.
Ukraine has zero experience with those pieces of equipment though - it's not quite that straightforward. But yes, sooner started sooner done, no doubt.
It falls to the nation state's armed forces to deliver this kit to Ukraine. I would agree there is also the training consideration too. Overall, the logistics are tricky.
I would suggest that any Western European government considers very carefully a.) where the real risk lies in all of this and b.) how they wish history to remember them at this juncture. Thwarting Russia now, comprehensively, will likely prevent decades of future incursions and invasions.
BikeBikeBIke said:
Indeed.
So ask yourself if an emboldened Russia and a Russian monopoly in Europe of Energy and Lithium is commercially best for Germany.....
Emboldened Russia is fine for them. Russia isn’t daft enough to invade a NATO country. Russian monopoly of energy is also fine as long as the price is right, for the last few decades the price has been fine. German politicians have made out like bandits on Russian energy.So ask yourself if an emboldened Russia and a Russian monopoly in Europe of Energy and Lithium is commercially best for Germany.....
All they want is some cheap gas and a ready supply of poor people to make cheap car parts. Neither of these are influenced by the state of mind of Russia.
vonuber said:
Art0ir said:
Rheinmetall and other German defence giants could arm Ukraine twice over if they got the green light.
Ukraine has zero experience with those pieces of equipment though - it's not quite that straightforward. But yes, sooner started sooner done, no doubt.
According to Rheinmetall's boss - no. A couple of months after the export control licence was requested.
https://www.businessinsider.de/politik/deutschland...
They're taking the punt anyway and kicking off the refurb. Fair play. Ignore the s
te about them being more expensive, the ones sold to Jorden weren't refurbed. Edited by Sway on Monday 30th May 08:44
rxe said:
Emboldened Russia is fine for them. Russia isn’t daft enough to invade a NATO country. Russian monopoly of energy is also fine as long as the price is right, for the last few decades the price has been fine. German politicians have made out like bandits on Russian energy.
All they want is some cheap gas and a ready supply of poor people to make cheap car parts. Neither of these are influenced by the state of mind of Russia.
If you think there's no drawback to Russia taking Ukraine, why do you think all the other countries are committing so much to stop it happening?All they want is some cheap gas and a ready supply of poor people to make cheap car parts. Neither of these are influenced by the state of mind of Russia.
Cobnapint said:
...Africa.
It's amazing how many people with Twitter accounts in Africa (and India for that matter) openly support Putin. Their reasoning behind their position is because the British and West in general are supplying weapons to Ukraine, and Britain and the West previously colonised their countries.
It really is that simple. They are willing to support mad Vlad slaughtering civilians because the west is against him.
It's amazing how many people with Twitter accounts in Africa (and India for that matter) openly support Putin. Their reasoning behind their position is because the British and West in general are supplying weapons to Ukraine, and Britain and the West previously colonised their countries.
It really is that simple. They are willing to support mad Vlad slaughtering civilians because the west is against him.
QuickQuack said:
Whilst the West has been ignoring Africa, Russia has been pumping in arms to the dictators and lots of propaganda to the masses, so they now believe the same rubbish coming from the Russian state media instead of western mainstream media. That's why they blame the West for the war, the grain crisis, and everything is our fault. Unless we can physically wrestle the grain out of the Russians' hands and deliver it to the African nations ourselves, their opinion will not change one iota. Any African starving to death as a result of the grain being being held to ransom by Russia will be laid at our door - purely because they don't have access to any better information to say or prove otherwise and to drown out the noise. The fake accounts are all part of the Russian propaganda tactics and will be highly influential. If you haven't already done so, watch Vlad Vexler's excellent video explaining Russian propaganda tactics.
I also agree that if the Russian armed forces are pulverised into oblivion, then there's nobody left to threaten our way of life while we rebuild our defences. Therefore, we shouldn't hold back from supplying our best available kit to Ukraine even if it means we have less on the shelf for a little while. We don't need to totally empty everything out, but we should give even higher spec kit in even greater quantities even quicker.
In Europe, nobody expected anything better from Hungary so their response wasn't that surprising. They also have little financial or political clout. They're irrelevant. Italy or Spain haven't done huge amounts either, but they neither have the financial means of France and Germany, nor the physical proximity to the source of trouble as Poland et al. More to the point, they're not up their necks in dirty Russian money, blocking supply of arms, blocking reduction on dependence on Russian oil and gas, or trying to give away Ukrainian land for a "negotiated peace" agreement with the aggressor. That's why France and Germany are getting so much stick.
It's also worth noting that after the russian interference in the US 2016 elections, the US Intelligence agencies identified many of the bot farms, which led to them being dispersed, many of which went to African countries - hence the many african twitter accounts supporting PutinI also agree that if the Russian armed forces are pulverised into oblivion, then there's nobody left to threaten our way of life while we rebuild our defences. Therefore, we shouldn't hold back from supplying our best available kit to Ukraine even if it means we have less on the shelf for a little while. We don't need to totally empty everything out, but we should give even higher spec kit in even greater quantities even quicker.
In Europe, nobody expected anything better from Hungary so their response wasn't that surprising. They also have little financial or political clout. They're irrelevant. Italy or Spain haven't done huge amounts either, but they neither have the financial means of France and Germany, nor the physical proximity to the source of trouble as Poland et al. More to the point, they're not up their necks in dirty Russian money, blocking supply of arms, blocking reduction on dependence on Russian oil and gas, or trying to give away Ukrainian land for a "negotiated peace" agreement with the aggressor. That's why France and Germany are getting so much stick.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/mar/13...
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-exposes-sick...
Edited by Byker28i on Monday 30th May 09:15
vonuber said:
Art0ir said:
Rheinmetall and other German defence giants could arm Ukraine twice over if they got the green light.
Ukraine has zero experience with those pieces of equipment though - it's not quite that straightforward. But yes, sooner started sooner done, no doubt.
Fair cop on BAE too, all western partners should be doing more.
BikeBikeBIke said:
If you think there's no drawback to Russia taking Ukraine, why do you think all the other countries are committing so much to stop it happening?
There’s no commercial disadvantage to Germany. The only thing they are upset about is the price of gas, which has gone up becasue of the current crisis. If the crisis is over (and they don’t care how it is solved) then they will be happy. rxe said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
If you think there's no drawback to Russia taking Ukraine, why do you think all the other countries are committing so much to stop it happening?
There’s no commercial disadvantage to Germany. The only thing they are upset about is the price of gas, which has gone up becasue of the current crisis. If the crisis is over (and they don’t care how it is solved) then they will be happy. If there's no drawback why are billions being invested by most of the world to prevent it? We could all just shrug and let it happen.
rxe said:
There’s no commercial disadvantage to Germany. The only thing they are upset about is the price of gas, which has gone up becasue of the current crisis. If the crisis is over (and they don’t care how it is solved) then they will be happy.
That's an exceptionally cynical view.fblm said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
...
The narrative assumes Germany *want* to remain addicted to Russian energy....
Until very recently Germany did and not just them but the rest of the EU too... Nordstream 2! I'm sure a lot of them still do... Scholtz' mate Schroder for a start. It wasn't like they weren't fvcking warned, repeatedly. The narrative assumes Germany *want* to remain addicted to Russian energy....
There was - as Edmund Blackadder would have pointed out - a tiny flaw in the plan.
It was bo!!ocks.
Again, to be fair, the Germans have now admitted that it was a mistake.
However, they now seem intent on doing the the very minimum to appear compliant with Western allies.
BikeBikeBIke said:
rxe said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
If you think there's no drawback to Russia taking Ukraine, why do you think all the other countries are committing so much to stop it happening?
There’s no commercial disadvantage to Germany. The only thing they are upset about is the price of gas, which has gone up becasue of the current crisis. If the crisis is over (and they don’t care how it is solved) then they will be happy. If there's no drawback why are billions being invested by most of the world to prevent it? We could all just shrug and let it happen.
Germany quite clearly hasn't given a f
k about gifting Russia a direct controlling presence in the success of it's manufacturing economy - the basis for Germany's whole position in the world. Why that is, I'm not going to speculate, as there's a couple of posters who'll get really upset.Hence, Germany is doing things like agreeing to send AA kit that Ukraine hasn't asked for and will be a nightmare to keep operating (defensive), and is actively blocking German suppliers sending kit Ukraine is willing to buy direct.
They only agreed to send artillery as the Dutch stepped up with part of the requirement, however they couldn't supply enough for an effective battery.
As long as Russia doesn't get too upset with Germany, and the German economy doesn't have any negative impacts - Germany is happy. (it's not just Scholtz, it's also people like the CEO of VAG).
The rest of the 'senior' Western nations (France slightly excepted) and the Eastern European nations, aren't looking at this commercially. They're seeing it strategically, in terms of the recognition of Russian actions over the last couple of decades and the ability to materially change the potential for issues over the next few. The fact it's costing them is irrelevant - the cost is cheap in comparison to the outcome, or the prevention of significantly greater costs down the line.
I have never had less respect for Germany.
Abdul Abulbul Amir said:
Has Germany actaully fullfilled any of their pledges yet? Or are they doing an Amber Heard.
They've ready sent a lot, yes. But for some reason people think they've done nothing as they have not sent all 5 of their leopard 2s.However, the current chancellor and his party are probably in putins pocket, especially in the light of for example the green party trying to get a panzer division or two over the border.
If they actually had the tanks that is.
BikeBikeBIke said:
That doesn't answer my question, just restates your assertion.
If there's no drawback why are billions being invested by most of the world to prevent it? We could all just shrug and let it happen.
That’s a pretty simple question to answer. If there's no drawback why are billions being invested by most of the world to prevent it? We could all just shrug and let it happen.
There’s definitely a thread of “we don’t like seeing a democratic country over-run”, but that happens all the time and we don’t see the sort of response we have now. From a wider strategic perspective, our “enemy” has got itself into a position where he can be defeated by a proxy. This presents an opportunity to fight a war at a threshold below MAD that degrades the enemy. There’s also the gradual realisation that having Russia control energy and food for a big chunk of Europe (and the world) is probably a bad idea.
The Germans are reasonably confident that nothing bad will happen to them (which is why they’re not doing anything to upset Putin). They are simply planning for 18 months time when they will be first at the trough for new gas contracts. After all, they were Vlads friends during the war, so they should be first with the contracts when the time comes.
vonuber said:
Abdul Abulbul Amir said:
Has Germany actaully fullfilled any of their pledges yet? Or are they doing an Amber Heard.
They've ready sent a lot, yes. But for some reason people think they've done nothing as they have not sent all 5 of their leopard 2s.However, the current chancellor and his party are probably in putins pocket, especially in the light of for example the green party trying to get a panzer division or two over the border.
If they actually had the tanks that is.
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