How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 4)

[psi310398]

desolate said:

citizensm1th said:

don'tbesilly said:

Can you point out anyone either here or in Govt who wants a no deal?

The only caveat being that leaving must mean just that, leaving in totality, no links/ties to the EU in any, shape or form.

given the posts above this one it seems more than one person on here wants a "no deal/no withdrawal deal"
on wto terms

I'd say there is strong support for no deal.

I'm happy to be pragmatic - we need to get Brexit behind us and move on.

Simple WTO terms don't hold any great fears for me, although it could be a bit hairy for a few weeks, but the Government is lying if it says it does not already have resilience plans and it will be buffing those up - I've worked on some of them in the past. Think about it; it would be incredibly irresponsible for any government not to plan against any range of scenarios up to nuclear war.

Canada or Japan style FTAs would be fine and, given that we are currently in full alignment with the EU, should be fairly simple to sort out. Norway as a staging post to something else could work, possibly.

But permanent rule taking (EEA/EFTA) or keeping the four pillars forever would not in my view be Brexit. For the same reasons, Chequers doesn't work.

[Helicopter123]

I think the way this is heading is for a hard 'no deal' Brexit and then this put to the people either through a GE or a 2nd vote.

Almost daily, chances of deal are slipping away and a 'no deal' Brexit looks quite painful.

[sidicks]

Helicopter123 said:

I think the way this is heading is for a hard 'no deal' Brexit and then this put to the people either through a GE or a 2nd vote.

Not going to happen.

Helicopter123 said:

Almost daily, chances of deal are slipping away and a 'no deal' Brexit looks quite painful.

Not really.

Edited by sidicks on Sunday 29th July 23:29

[Helicopter123]

sidicks said:

Helicopter123 said:

I think the way this is heading is for a hard 'no deal' Brexit and then this put to the people either through a GE or a 2nd vote.

Not going to happen.

Almost daily, chances of deal are slipping away and a 'no deal' Brexit looks quite painful.

Not really.

I don't see a no deal Brexit getting through parliament, do you? Just not the numbers.

[anonymous-user]

sidicks said:

desolate said:

I'd say there is strong support for no deal.

No trade deal, or no deal of any kind whatsoever?

My gut feel is that could be the case. As you know, trade deals involve things like mutual recognition of standards (maybe even alignment) and other non tariff matters.

I think there is a strong core that wants to complete break from EU rules and regulations.

I could be wrong as I haven't conducted an in depth poll.

[Helicopter123]

If May can't get a vote through parliament then it's no confidence/GE/Corbyn or she ducks it and sends it back to the people via a 2nd ref.

[anonymous-user]

Any 'deal' will be worse than we have now. The poorest in the UK will suffer the most. You can bet that the typical brexiteer will suffer more than the likes of Boris/Farage/other establishment wasters.
So what are the benefits of this?

Curtail EU immigration? (any UK government could have 'deported' unemployed EU nationals after a few months, but chose not to)
Blue passport? (We could have pink with blue spots today if we want)
Trade with the rest of the world (like we do today as EU members)

But in fairness it is very entertaining, comedy gold. Who will the UK government blame for our ills?, EU a convenient scapegoat over recent decades.

Just a shame that vast swathes of UK citizens will be a lot worse off. Unless they voted brexit of course, then it is good

The above assumes that we will leave, which is far from certain. Lots of twists & turns to come.

[sidicks]

desolate said:

My gut feel is that could be the case. As you know, trade deals involve things like mutual recognition of standards (maybe even alignment) and other non tariff matters.

‘That’ beng no deal whatsoever, or no trade deal?? If the latter, then I probably agree with you, even if our standards are currently aligned.

[anonymous-user]

sidicks said:

desolate said:

My gut feel is that could be the case. As you know, trade deals involve things like mutual recognition of standards (maybe even alignment) and other non tariff matters.

‘That’ beng no deal whatsoever, or no trade deal?? If the latter, then I probably agree with you, even if our standards are currently aligned.

Yes to clarify - I think there is strong support for no deal at all.

A real - "up yours Delors" sentiment.

If I was to be forced to bet the house I'd be putting my money on a half arsed compromise that doesn't really get anyone anywhere.

[djc206]

desolate said:

Yes to clarify - I think there is strong support for no deal at all.

A real - "up yours Delors" sentiment.

If I was to be forced to bet the house I'd be putting my money on a half arsed compromise that doesn't really get anyone anywhere.

Anyone that contemplates no deal at all for more than a few seconds without coming to the conclusion that it would be an unmitigated disaster that would cripple this country is certifiably insane.

[frisbee]

djc206 said:

Anyone that contemplates no deal at all for more than a few seconds without coming to the conclusion that it would be an unmitigated disaster that would cripple this country is certifiably insane.

And political suicide, which is why it won’t happen.

[anonymous-user]

frisbee said:

djc206 said:

Anyone that contemplates no deal at all for more than a few seconds without coming to the conclusion that it would be an unmitigated disaster that would cripple this country is certifiably insane.

And political suicide, which is why it won’t happen.

My point was that it's a position that has plenty of support. Don't you agree?

[Vanden Saab]

Jimboka said:

Any 'deal' will be worse than we have now. The poorest in the UK will suffer the most. You can bet that the typical brexiteer will suffer more than the likes of Boris/Farage/other establishment wasters.
So what are the benefits of this?

Curtail EU immigration? (any UK government could have 'deported' unemployed EU nationals after a few months, but chose not to)
Blue passport? (We could have pink with blue spots today if we want)
Trade with the rest of the world (like we do today as EU members)

But in fairness it is very entertaining, comedy gold. Who will the UK government blame for our ills?, EU a convenient scapegoat over recent decades.

Just a shame that vast swathes of UK citizens will be a lot worse off. Unless they voted brexit of course, then it is good

The above assumes that we will leave, which is far from certain. Lots of twists & turns to come.

We see this time after time... "the poorest will suffer the most" because of Brexit. A ridiculous statement only ever written by someone who has never been poor and is never likely to be IMHO.
As yet I have seen no explanation of why or how the poorest will suffer more than they are now.. can anyone enlighten us simpletons as to how the poorest will suffer the most?

[djc206]

desolate said:

My point was that it's a position that has plenty of support. Don't you agree?

I fking hope not!

[Murph7355]

Jimboka said:

Any 'deal' will be worse than we have now. ....

It depends what you include in the "deal" I suppose.

Jimboka said:

...
Just a shame that vast swathes of UK citizens will be a lot worse off. ...

How are you defining "vast swathes" and "a lot worse off"?

Worst case estimates from economists not exactly known for their accurate predictions is the NE will be worst hit and will suffer a 16% impact on GROWTH over a 15yr period.

Note that projections are still FOR growth. So everyone will be better off than they are now....just not as better off as they might have been IF the full predictions come to pass.

Growth predictions at present look to be around the 2% mark...

There's risk in everything. There was risk in remaining in the EU. Plenty of it. I'm not convinced any differences economically will ever be provable or even material.

[ou sont les biscuits]

djc206 said:

desolate said:

My point was that it's a position that has plenty of support. Don't you agree?

I fking hope not!

Lots of support on here maybe. Fortunately NP+E isn’t the real world.

[frisbee]

desolate said:

frisbee said:

djc206 said:

Anyone that contemplates no deal at all for more than a few seconds without coming to the conclusion that it would be an unmitigated disaster that would cripple this country is certifiably insane.

And political suicide, which is why it won’t happen.

My point was that it's a position that has plenty of support. Don't you agree?

It definitely has a childish appeal but politicians will do anything to avoid playing another wild card.

Interesting times.

[anonymous-user]

JagLover said:

bhstewie said:

Honestly it seems a bit odd that the best reason you seem able to come up with is because The Guardian might use it.

Not at all, a panic is very dangerous to a modern economy and it would be very easy for unscrupulous media outlets to create a recession through destroying consumer confidence from their constant hysteria, even if we end up with a deal, which to repeat is the governments desired outcome.

You believe The Guardian can “create a recession”? How many rolls of Bacofoil in your current headgear?

Not that you ever had much - but your credibility has sunk into negative with that gem!

[Dr Jekyll]

Jimboka said:

Trade with the rest of the world (like we do today as EU members)

If you accept that we can trade with ROW as EU members, does this mean you accept we will still be able to trade with EU countries after we've left?

[psi310398]

Helicopter123 said:

I don't see a no deal Brexit getting through parliament, do you? Just not the numbers.

As Article 50 has been invoked, we automatically leave the Union two years after the date of its invocation in the absence of either an agreement or an extension to the notice period, unanimously agreed by the UK and the EU27.

Parliament does not have control in a "no deal" scenario. That bus has already gone.

Parliament cannot approve an agreement that does not exist, nor can it itself petition the EU27 for an extension.

At a pinch, it might be able to instruct the government to seek an extension and for the government itself to approve such an extension.