The economic consequences of Brexit

[anonymous-user]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.wsj.com/amp/artic...

[///ajd]

bmw535i said:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.wsj.com/amp/artic...

some interesting quotes

Adam Posen said:

president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Bank of England policy maker, said he believes that even if the U.K. technically skirts recession, its economy will ultimately prove to be quite clearly damaged, which would vindicate many of the warnings.

Another bloke said:

“The market reaction has been quite calm, but it could have been different,” said Paul Sheard, the chief economist of S&P Global, who has previously said the uncertainty from Brexit is likely to seep into the economy slowly over time. “I don’t think you can blame people who were warning. This is more of a chronic issue than an acute issue. That’s going to play out over a very extended period of time.”

[CaptainSlow]

///ajd said:

bmw535i said:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.wsj.com/amp/artic...

some interesting quotes

Adam Posen said:

president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Bank of England policy maker, said he believes that even if the U.K. technically skirts recession, its economy will ultimately prove to be quite clearly damaged, which would vindicate many of the warnings.

Another bloke said:

“The market reaction has been quite calm, but it could have been different,” said Paul Sheard, the chief economist of S&P Global, who has previously said the uncertainty from Brexit is likely to seep into the economy slowly over time. “I don’t think you can blame people who were warning. This is more of a chronic issue than an acute issue. That’s going to play out over a very extended period of time.”

Yeah interesting. Experts that predicted a recession and complete doom and gloom now saying that even though it didn't happen they still were right. Muppets.

[mike9009]

don4l said:

Jesus Christ!

You have a Spanish customer who trades in Sterling?

Go away!

We have US, Japanese, German and Spanish customers who trade in Sterling. But we deal with big companies rather than small companies/ individuals. Not sure which size companies the UK would rather be doing trade with??

[anonymous-user]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk...

[Derek Smith]

CaptainSlow said:

Yeah interesting. Experts that predicted a recession and complete doom and gloom now saying that even though it didn't happen they still were right. Muppets.

So those who predicted exit would harm us are wrong as still being in the eu hasn't hurt us.

The thing seems to be that experts can be wrong. So everything is a guess. Those who guessed right still guessed and those who guessed wrong did so as well.

We won't know which 'side' is right until we exit. Even so, we have no idea what exit will mean. So no one knows.

[davepoth]

Derek Smith said:

So those who predicted exit would harm us are wrong as still being in the eu hasn't hurt us.

The thing seems to be that experts can be wrong. So everything is a guess. Those who guessed right still guessed and those who guessed wrong did so as well.

We won't know which 'side' is right until we exit. Even so, we have no idea what exit will mean. So no one knows.

I agree to an extent - it's still very early days in what will be a long process.

However, many economists did make predictions that the UK economy would be in the stter already, and it clearly isn't. It's their backpedalling (and especially the FT's slightly sulky stance) that's especially amusing at this moment.

[CaptainSlow]

davepoth said:

However, many economists did make predictions that the UK economy would be in the stter already, and it clearly isn't. It's their backpedalling (and especially the FT's slightly sulky stance) that's especially amusing at this moment.

Quite, seems some are desperate not to be seen to be wrong again. However it was only 17% of economists that predicted disaster rather than the 90% claim by the Remain liers. Have we had the emergency Brexit Budget yet? I seem to have missed it.

[anonymous-user]

CaptainSlow said:

davepoth said:

However, many economists did make predictions that the UK economy would be in the stter already, and it clearly isn't. It's their backpedalling (and especially the FT's slightly sulky stance) that's especially amusing at this moment.

Quite, seems some are desperate not to be seen to be wrong again. However it was only 17% of economists that predicted disaster rather than the 90% claim by the Remain liers. Have we had the emergency Brexit Budget yet? I seem to have missed it.

Why do people struggle to admit when they were wrong and move on with their lives? It's kind of wierd. The only people they are fooling is themselves. I guess their predictions may yet come true. They realise they were wrong about the result and deep down they realise they were wrong about their predicitions of armageddon in the unlikely event they lost. They are just doubling down now in the hope that the actual exit is botched, the economy tanks and they get to win the internet for a few weeks. Sad.

[Derek Smith]

davepoth said:

Derek Smith said:

So those who predicted exit would harm us are wrong as still being in the eu hasn't hurt us.

The thing seems to be that experts can be wrong. So everything is a guess. Those who guessed right still guessed and those who guessed wrong did so as well.

We won't know which 'side' is right until we exit. Even so, we have no idea what exit will mean. So no one knows.

I agree to an extent - it's still very early days in what will be a long process.

However, many economists did make predictions that the UK economy would be in the stter already, and it clearly isn't. It's their backpedalling (and especially the FT's slightly sulky stance) that's especially amusing at this moment.

I seem to remember that the majority of experts did not suggest disaster once there was a vote to leave, rather that there would be a period of political and financial uncertainty. The drop in the value of the £ was mentioned, but I could not put a % of the number of experts who were of that opinion.

I've had a quick look online and I can find no expert saying that a mere vote for exit would put us in the kack.

There was not one dissenter from the prediction that the result of an exit vote and, later, an exit were unpredictable, but unlikely to be positive financially. That's short and medium term.

Have specific experts changed their stance or are we lumping all experts who were negative about the exit into one?

Was the promise of a drop in the £ not derided? I seem to remember Gove saying something about the positive and immediate effects of the vote. We were told by experts that there would be in increase in the £ if we stayed. I miss that.

It doesn't matter what is happening now, apart from the likely poorer negotiating position a falling exchange rate will give us in the negotiations. The worry I have is for the medium/long term.

[anonymous-user]

Derek Smith said:

It doesn't matter what is happening now, apart from the likely poorer negotiating position a falling exchange rate will give us in the negotiations.

Huh? Exchange rate move turns the screws on EU exporters to Britain at a time they can least afford it; they are in a considerably worse place to weather any kind of tariffs or prolonged trade spat which will keep the pressure on the EU/Germany to conclude favourable trade talks for all asap. Why do you think GBP gives you a poorer negotiating position?

[s2art]

fblm said:

Why do you think GBP gives you a poorer negotiating position?

Perhaps only if we start buying less from the EU. But then the last thing they would want is to cause tariffs to go on as it would mean we would buy even less.

[don4l]

williamp said:

as an aside, you can also get currency accounts, so a Uk based business can have, say a Euro account if they do a lot of work in the eurozone, they can buy and sell without messing with the exchange rate.

As it happens, I have a Euro account at my local branch of Barclays.

I really think that I should close it.

[don4l]

Ghibli said:

don4l said:

Nothing could be simpler.

If the exchange rate is £1.00= €1.30, then your Spanish customer is paying €26.00 per item. You make £90.00

The rate drops to £1.00 = €1.10.

€26.00 is now worth £23.63. Your income is now 9*£23.63 = £212.72.

You have made £112.72.

That is £22.72 more than you made when the Pound was worth €1.30.

I know that we are largely anonymous on here, but shouldn't you do the most basic of checks before asking such ridiculuous questions?

How does this work if my customer is paying me in sterling ?

I haven't mentioned being paid in euros.

I get paid in Sterling. I invoice in Sterling.

My European customers pay in Euros.

They need fewer Euros to buy stuff from me than they needed before the 24th of June.


I can make more profit, or I can try to increase sales.

I am absolutely astonished by the fact that so many of you are so willing to display your economic illiteracy on a public forum.

Have you all been sending each other private e-mails that say "Let's pretend to be monumentally thick just to wind don4l up"?

[davepoth]

don4l said:

Have you all been sending each other private e-mails that say "Let's pretend to be monumentally thick just to wind don4l up"?

I think that there was something to that effect in one of those "Britain Stronger in Europe" leaflets you received and probably binned back in June.

[anonymous-user]

don4l said:

Ghibli said:

If I buy ten units from Taiwan for £100 then sell them to Spain for £200 I make £100.

If the pound loses 10%

I buy nine units from Taiwan for £100 then sell them to Spain for £180 I make £80

Is this right ?

No.


Think it through.

Why did you drop your price the second time?

Which bit is wrong ?

[don4l]

Ghibli said:

don4l said:

Ghibli said:

If I buy ten units from Taiwan for £100 then sell them to Spain for £200 I make £100.

If the pound loses 10%

I buy nine units from Taiwan for £100 then sell them to Spain for £180 I make £80

Is this right ?

No.


Think it through.

Why did you drop your price the second time?

Which bit is wrong ?

I've come to the conclusion that you are pretending to be thick.

I've already answered your question in the simplest of terms. If you didn't understand it, then you never will.

[anonymous-user]

don4l said:

I've come to the conclusion that you are pretending to be thick.

I've already answered your question in the simplest of terms. If you didn't understand it, then you never will.

You are obviously not pretending to be thick.

I await further insults from you and live in the hope you will grow up.

[Einion Yrth]

don4l said:

Ghibli said:

don4l said:

Ghibli said:

If I buy ten units from Taiwan for £100 then sell them to Spain for £200 I make £100.

If the pound loses 10%

I buy nine units from Taiwan for £100 then sell them to Spain for £180 I make £80

Is this right ?

No.


Think it through.

Why did you drop your price the second time?

Which bit is wrong ?

I've come to the conclusion that you are pretending to be thick.

I've already answered your question in the simplest of terms. If you didn't understand it, then you never will.

I'd let it lie Donal: you're probably right about the intelligence of your interlocutors, but you're allowing frustration to become abuse; probably doesn't help mate?

[anonymous-user]

don4l said:

I've come to the conclusion that you are pretending to be thick.

I've already answered your question in the simplest of terms. If you didn't understand it, then you never will.

I've come to a different conclusion: there is no pretence....